BREAKING: China has begun mass production of DUV lithography machines for the first time

ASML: nobody can touch our monopoly

China: targeting 5 DUV machines this year and 20 next year

Chip equipment stocks:

ASML -8.3%
ASM International -7.3%
BE Semiconductor -9.9%
Applied Materials -6.7%
Lam Research -7.9%

It’s over

中国已首次实现深紫外（DUV）光刻机量产

阿斯麦（ASML）：无人能撼动我们的垄断地位

中国目标：今年交付 5 台 DUV 光刻机，明年 20 台

芯片设备个股行情：

阿斯麦（ASML）：跌幅 8.3%

ASM 国际：跌幅 7.3%

BE 半导体：跌幅 9.9%

应用材料（Applied Materials）：跌幅 6.7%

泛林半导体（Lam Research）：跌幅 7.9%

大局已定

以下是各国网友的评论：

rom1504
Wonder why not more. 5 or 20 doesn't sound very mass produced to me. Why not 10000

我好奇为什么产量这么低。年产5台或者20台，在我看来根本算不上大规模生产，为什么不能做到一万台？

 

Gaoge
10 years to be 1 million at this rate.

按照这个产能速度，想要生产100万台需要10年。

 

klkkk78378312
DUV is like iPhones in your world. Sad.

在你们口中，深紫外光刻机仿佛只是普通苹果手机一样不起眼，实在可悲。

 

ZwaagPaul
Its not a car or something. Asml makes like 120 DUV machines a year.

光刻机可不能和汽车相提并论。阿斯麦每年大约只生产120台深紫外光刻机。

 

eclement04
did ASML ever sell any machines to China?

阿斯麦曾经向中国出售过光刻机吗？

 

Grok
Yes, ASML sold large volumes of DUV lithography machines to Chinese customers for years (China was often their top market for them). No EUV machines were ever sold or shipped to China due to export controls.

有的。多年以来阿斯麦向中国客户大量供应深紫外光刻机，中国经常是它深紫外设备的最大市场。但受到出口管制影响，极紫外光刻机从未出售、发往中国。

 

SmarterEveryDip
People dont even know how old DUV tech China is building. lol.

很多人根本不知道，中国现在攻克的深紫外技术是多年前的老旧技术，哈哈。

 

JackyJa
But the stock market’s reaction doesn’t seem to match your mockery.

但是股市的行情走势，和你们这番嘲讽的论调并不相符。

 

jason3966891411
why don't the EU sell asml to China

欧盟为什么不允许阿斯麦向中国供货？

 

StocksWithNoah
It’s on par with TWINSCAN NXT:1980i series, which ASML released in 2016 lol

这款设备性能对标阿斯麦2016年推出的TWINSCAN NXT:1980i机型，哈哈。

 

Rusty
The things is, once they have a workable older design it's significantly easier to build and improve on top of that. That's what the Chinese did with smart phones and EVs.

关键一点：只要掌握一套可以正常使用的成熟旧方案，后续制造和持续改良就会容易很多。中国智能手机、新能源汽车都是这么发展起来的。

 

StocksWithNoah
Very true. They are extremely good at innovation

说得十分在理，他们非常擅长改良创新。

 

John S.
Yeah but by 2036, China will have the best machines in the world

等着看吧，到2036年，中国就能造出全球最顶尖的光刻机。

 

Max
The technology is old but with it the most majority of the chips can be made. EUV is only needed for a much smaller portion of the applications.

虽说技术年代较早，但依靠它能够生产绝大多数芯片。只有少数应用场景，才需要用到极紫外光刻机。

 

Dshoopy
Are we going to do the China is X years behind things again?

大家又要开始老生常谈，争论中国技术落后多少年这套说辞了吗？

 

mikhaele_ible
That's how it starts but they will improve quickly.

任何技术都是这样起步的，他们后续的迭代提升速度会很快。

 

nzjw
You need to consider the downstream impacts, ASML will likely get fewer sales of DUV, which means lower overall profit, which means less money for R&D, which means harder to stay ahead.

需要考虑连锁影响：阿斯麦深紫外光刻机销量大概率下滑，整体利润随之下降，研发投入缩水，想要持续维持技术领先将会更加困难。

 

Andy
Why lol? China exported 210 billion dollars of computer chips. All are made by DUV. Mature chips don't need EUV

有什么好笑的？中国芯片出口额高达2100亿美元，这些芯片全部依靠深紫外光刻机生产。成熟制程芯片根本不需要极紫外光刻机。

 

Richard
So what do we do? China is undeniably at the foot of the lithography mountain. But we were off the radar on GPS and space stations too, yet today Beidou and our own space station are realities. When pushed into a corner, options disappear—effort becomes our only lever.

那我们该如何应对？不可否认，中国光刻技术刚刚起步。曾经北斗导航、空间站同样不被外界看好，如今都成为现实。被逼入绝境时，别无选择，唯有全力攻坚。

 

SomacoSF
Yeah but ASML did have self improving State Level AI and unlimited money - surely the AIs participated and learned from this build - the next iterations will come

阿斯麦拥有可自主迭代的顶级人工智能与充足资金。但对方也能在设备研发制造中积累经验，下一代设备很快就会推出。

 

aixpotter
High-end semiconductor chips (sub-7nm) account for less than 1% of total chip consumption; the majority of chips fall within the 12–200nm range (covering both civilian and military applications), rendering ASML of little remaining significance

7纳米以下高端芯片的消费量占芯片总需求不足1%。绝大多数芯片集中在12–200纳米制程区间，覆盖军民各类场景，阿斯麦的重要性将会不断下降。

 

Dan Holzrichter
Euv are much harder than duv... they are 10+ years behind

极紫外光刻机研发难度远高于深紫外，他们至少落后十年以上。

 

Dmitry M
Nah they will catch up

不见得，他们迟早会追上来。

 

ManBanality
20 years

至少还需要二十年。

 

chenyueyi1129
Very soon, very soon
Just like you stand on the train platform and hear the sound of the train.
It will leave you in an instant.

很快，真的很快。

就像站在站台听见列车驶来的轰鸣，

转瞬之间，就会甩开所有人。

 

rekktFinance
And 1 year ago they were 15+ years behind.

就在一年前，外界还普遍认为他们技术落后十五年以上。

 

djcows
some Europeans are way too arrogant, and it always ends like this

一部分欧洲人太过傲慢，而历史总是不断重复上演。

 

Peter Dedene
does the US make EUV machines?

美国能够制造极紫外光刻机吗？

 

djcows
no, what does that have to do with my statement?

不能，但这和我刚才说的话有什么关系？

 

frumiousbobsyer
Once again, I think this is the China just gaming the world markets to cash in on short sell positions.
If they have the tech, why announce it?? Just start dope producing lithography of a high enough and robust enough quality to flood the market.
Follow the trades…

我依旧认为，中国只是借助消息搅动全球市场，借机做空获利。

如果真掌握成熟技术，何必大肆对外公布？直接大规模量产高质量光刻机抢占市场就行了。

大家可以留意资本市场的交易动向。

 

DeepXSpaceXGrok
People here say it’s outdated etc. it’s not long until they surpass without you feeling it. Mark my words

很多人都说这项技术已经过时。但用不了多久，他们就会悄无声息完成超越，记住我说的这句话。

 

Cyn_Cyb3r071Qu3
We should've kept the damn machines in-house instead of selling them. And we should've sold only the chips instead.
But hey, it's Europe huh

当初就不该对外出售光刻机，应当把设备留在本土，只对外售卖芯片。

可惜啊，这就是欧洲。

 

Youbigma
The same shit happens all the time. Give it like a week or two and they’ll find out China has an inferior product

这类事情总是反复上演。再过一两周大家就会发现，中国这款设备性能比不上竞品。

 

zeroday_whales
Too bad they will never ship their machines to someone outside of China so the market can verify them

可惜他们不会把光刻机出口海外，市场没办法实地验证设备的真实性能。

 

gradient_sky
It’s not over EUV is needed for modern GPUs. Anything below 10nm node is EUV.

事情还远远没有结束。现代图形显卡离不开极紫外光刻机，所有10纳米以下制程都需要它。

 

Kcasz
Compare DUV to EUV. It's like saying Usain Bolt's records are in danger cause last year I run at a 16km/h, and today I am runing at 22km/h.
Maybe, just maybe, Bolt should just laugh as I will never catch.
China is able to do what ASML was doing 1 decade ago

拿深紫外对标极紫外，打个比方：不能因为我的跑步速度从时速16公里提升到22公里，就觉得能挑战博尔特的纪录。

博尔特大可一笑置之，我永远追赶不上。

中国目前只能实现阿斯麦十年前的技术水平。

 

Bryan Waldo
It's like someone graduating kindergarten, while the other guy just got his doctorate of medicine with a focus on aerospace engineering. This is a non-story.

这好比一方刚幼儿园毕业，另一方已经拿到航空工程方向的医学博士学位。这件事根本不值得过度讨论。

 

Jamil
It’s not over yet, or at least, it may not be. China has made repeated attempts to develop its own lithography machines, with only partial success so far.
In one reported case, Chinese technicians disassembled an older ASML deep-ultraviolet (DUV) system in an effort to reverse-engineer it, damaged the machine in the process, and had to call ASML for repairs.
$ASML
retains a near-monopoly on the most advanced extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools.

双方差距依旧巨大。中国持续尝试自研光刻机，到目前为止只取得部分突破。

有报道称，中国技术人员拆解一台老旧的阿斯麦深紫外光刻机尝试逆向研发，过程中不慎损坏设备，最后只能联系阿斯麦前来维修。

阿斯麦几乎垄断全球最先进的极紫外光刻机市场。

 

David Daglio
Semiconductor industry has been leapfrogging the incumbents for decades. It was only 25 years ago that IBM operated the most modern semi plant in East Fishkill, NY.
The point is that sure ASML will have competition.
For sure DRAM is a commodity, they have 80 percent margins will fall to zero at some point.

几十年来，半导体行业不断上演后来者赶超行业巨头的故事。仅仅25年前，纽约东菲什基尔最先进的芯片工厂还属于IBM。

核心观点：阿斯麦早晚要迎来竞争对手。

内存芯片早已成为通用商品，当前高达80%的利润率，未来终有归零的一天。

 

Solomon Lemos
Do you even know what a DUV lithography 'machine' is?
I have two of them in my department at a modest european university. Short of 3 to compete with the whole of China, according to your statement ... .

你清楚深紫外光刻机到底是什么吗？

我所在一所普通欧洲大学的院系里就有两台。按照你的说法，那我们三台设备就能和整个中国比拼？

 

SG
DUV vs EUV you clowns are spreading fear over 10 year old tech
EUV is the future
it's like saying china is now producing a 10 year old iphone who cares

一群人拿着十年前的深紫外技术制造恐慌，非要拿来和极紫外对比。

极紫外才代表未来。

这就好比说中国造出十年前款式的苹果手机，有什么值得紧张的？

 

Merr
Is still very far behind but the monopoly is probably gone now nor soon will be. This i saw it was 100w vs. New 700w from asml. Was tech asml abandoned long ago too.

技术差距依旧很大，但垄断格局很快就会被打破。我了解到这款设备光源功率100瓦，阿斯麦新款设备光源功率700瓦，这套技术阿斯麦早就淘汰了。

 

Daniel Hofmann
No. Extremely high ultra at the geography is where it's at, not DUV. This is totally stupid, your assertion, and your post. Just quit Twitter now and play some video games

别扯了。真正的主战场是高数值孔径极紫外技术，根本不是深紫外。你的观点和这条帖子毫无价值，不如关掉推特去打游戏。

 

Maksim
China publishes roadmap (nothing actually tangible yet) to produce machines on par with tech from (checks notes) a decade ago.
Slop Analysts: iTs sO OveR!

中国公布了发展路线图，暂时还没有实质性量产成果，目标仅仅是追上（查阅资料确认）十年前的技术水平。

一些水平普通的分析师却大喊：大势已去！

 

I_dude_eu
Utter stupid propaganda from people who dont know anything about DUV or EUV or anything connected to these machines. China is like 8 years behind.

完全是外行在散播不实言论，他们根本不懂深紫外、极紫外光刻机相关技术。中国大约落后八年。

 

andrew
lets goooo china. lets bring down this monopoly

加油中国！打破这场技术垄断！

 

mgmidget
Problem is I'm the only one in my town left who wants anything to do with chiner. Everyone is stom out of the [trade] room.
And they have no kids or future, really, except possibly AI and robotics.

现实情况是，我镇上只剩我还愿意关注中国相关话题，其他人纷纷退出交易圈子。

除去人工智能和机器人领域之外，他们缺少新生力量，前景堪忧。

 

Ravenloft43
China is doing what ASML did in 2003, with a target of 5.

中国现在攻克的只是阿斯麦2003年的技术，量产目标仅为5台。

 

EpicCashOfficial
banging out 25 year old tech in drips doesnt break the tech world, takes more than that

断断续续量产一套诞生25年的老旧技术，撼动不了全球科技格局，想要突围远不止这么简单。

 

LibyanCossack
not to belittle their achievement, buy how many years until they start making 1st Gen EUV machines?
How many more years until they reach High-NA EUV?
It's probably going to take them another decade until they reach what ASML already has today in mass production.

我无意贬低这份成就，但距离造出第一代极紫外光刻机还需要多少年？

还要多久才能触及高数值孔径极紫外技术？

想要追上阿斯麦当下量产设备的水平，大概率还需要十年。

 

Siddharth Arya
Unbelievable … I ran a deep dive on this few months back … should have been a few years away

难以置信。几个月前我深入调研过相关信息，原本以为这项成果还要等好几年才能落地。

 

Negation
Also remember, China almost always lowballs their targets
Affordable RAMs, gaming GPUs and inferences are in sight. At mininum it keeps the west from rip off everyone with monopoly. All because of i Da Da.
And "Have you said thank you once"?

别忘了，中国公布的目标普遍偏向保守。

平价内存、游戏显卡、算力芯片已经看到希望。至少这能够阻止西方依靠垄断漫天要价。这一切多亏*。

试问，有人为此说过一句感谢吗？

 

kaiser.eth
it's funny cause everyone is like "oh, they are 20 years behind EUV, it'll take them 15 years to find how to produce those perfect Zeiss like mirrors to print at 2nm"
they are actually researching techs that will completely skip that kind of litography printing.

有意思的是，所有人都在说：他们极紫外技术落后20年，想要造出蔡司级别精密反射镜、实现2纳米制程至少还要15年。

但实际上，他们正在研发全新技术路线，有望绕开传统光刻方案。

 

ZIRP360
ASML has been doing DUV since 1980’s
How long will it take china to be able to do EUV? 2040’s??
By then ASML will likely be on to the next generation of lithography machines.

阿斯麦从上世纪80年代就开始研发深紫外光刻机。

中国什么时候能造出极紫外光刻机？难道要等到2040年代？

到那个时候，阿斯麦大概率已经研发出下一代光刻机。

 

80sGeek
These can do 7nm nodes, 5nm at higher cost. It's not EUV but it'll do. 192nm light vs 13nm light
EUV is next.

这款设备可以实现7纳米制程，也能生产5纳米芯片，只是成本很高。虽然不是极紫外光刻机，但能够满足生产需求。二者分别采用192纳米光源与13纳米光源。

研发极紫外光刻机是下一个目标。

 

AbdourahimIlyas
It's just fair.
I can not imagine what the China gov would say or do if there were no restrictions and everything were open.

发展到如今这个局面也算情理之中。

很难想象，如果没有各类技术限制、市场全面开放，中国官方会做出怎样的布局。

 

zoey.baby
Looks like China just upgraded from “Can’t touch this” to “We’re making our own mixtape” on the litho charts.

光刻领域格局出现变化，中国已经从“难以企及”的追赶者，转变为走出自主研发路线的玩家。