Why Vietnam’s Economic Boom Is So Fragile | Economy of Vietnam | Econ

为何越南的经济如此脆弱

Vietnam is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, transformed from a war-torn, poor nation into a major manufacturing and export hub since the Đổi Mới reforms in the 1980s. It has attracted huge foreign investment, become a top exporter to the U.S., and hosts production for giants like Apple and Samsung, with growth exceeding 8% in 2025.

However, its economic model shows worrying contradictions: GDP is surging, but electricity growth is lagging far behind, a mismatch unusual for an industrial economy. Vietnam’s success relies heavily on low-value assembly in the “China Plus One” strategy, with foreign firms accounting for ~75% of exports. Most high-value components are imported, especially from China, leaving Vietnam with a large trade deficit and dependent on Chinese supply chains rather than replacing them.

越南是全球增长最快的经济体之一。自 20 世纪 80 年代 革新开放以来，该国已从饱受战争蹂躏、贫困落后的国家，转型为重要的制造业与出口中心。越南吸引了巨额外资，为苹果、三星等巨头提供生产基地，2025 年经济增速超过 8%。

然而，其经济模式暴露出令人担忧的矛盾：GDP 高速增长，但电力增速却大幅滞后，这在工业经济体中极不寻常。越南高度依赖 “中国 + 1” 策略下的低附加值组装业务 ，外资企业贡献了约 75% 的出口。大部分高价值零部件依赖进口，尤其是从中国进口，导致越南出现巨额贸易逆差，并未取代中国，反而深度依附于中国供应链。

The economy is deeply two-tracked: foreign companies boom while domestic exporters declined in 2025. A small number of powerful conglomerates dominate domestic industries and the stock market, often relying on heavy borrowing, creating financial risks similar to China’s Evergrande crisis. Vietnam also faces a banking system burdened by high credit growth, bad loans, and overexposure to real estate.

越南经济呈现明显的双轨分化：外资企业蓬勃发展，而本土出口企业 2025 年反而出现下滑。少数实力雄厚的大型集团主导着国内产业与股市，且普遍依赖高负债经营，形成了类似中国恒大危机的金融风险。越南银行业也面临信贷高速扩张、不良贷款上升以及对房地产过度敞口的问题。

最紧迫的威胁是电力短缺，能源项目延误、电价管制以及电网超负荷，正严重威胁越南制造业根基。

以下是各国网友的评论：

acecool1715
Money is paid for vietnamese workers, but that money goes back to boost the value of real estate, which creates inflation, not any new value, which makes people suffer.

越南工人拿到的薪水，最终都流向了房地产并推高房价，这只会引发通货膨胀，不会创造任何新的实际价值，老百姓因此深受其苦。

eluan1647
It’s ridiculous but true: a standard, basic apartment in a major Vietnamese city now costs around $150,000 to $280,000 USD, which is completely out of touch with reality when the average Vietnamese worker only makes about $4,000 a year.

离谱却真实：越南大城市一套普通公寓如今售价在15万至28万美元之间，而越南普通工人年收入仅约4000美元，房价完全脱离现实。

Algerian_Sommelier-c9h
The amount of Vietnamese totally locked out of the local property market is significant. The middle class and wealthy probably make up about 30% of the population. The other 70%..unless they are inheriting property, they have little chance. And as most property is only renewable 50 year leaseholds, and the stock market is not as well trusted as in the west, property speculation among that 30% is rampant.

绝大多数越南人彻底被挡在房地产市场之外，中产和富人仅约占总人口的30%，剩下70%的人除非继承房产，否则基本没有买房可能。而且越南房产大多是50年续期租赁产权，股市也不像西方国家那样值得信赖，所以这30%的人群中炒房现象极为猖獗。

ucNguyen-es1fy
And when the biggest real estate corp use that money to make domestic car, and people boo them for it.

就连越南最大的房地产公司用赚来的钱打造国产汽车，都遭到民众一片嘘声。

Johnduong-p1v
Vietnamese smarter than you..

越南人比你们想得更聪明。

khachoangpham6946
I am vietnamese and I agree. Many of us realized that problem and are worried about the future. This current system only benefits people who are working for the government.

我是越南人，我认同这种说法。我们很多人都意识到了问题，对未来感到担忧，现行的体制只让在政府部门工作的人获利。

0x9b70
Many local Vietnamese are still gas lit on the promise, while ignoring the real facts and truth of what it really has. It will not change until it all crashes. Vietnam thinks its bigger than it thinks it is. It needs to stay in its lane, it is not China, not even close...

很多越南人还被各种空头承诺蒙蔽，无视真实的国情与现状，不等到全面崩盘就不会有任何改变。越南高估了自己的实力，应该认清自身定位，它远不是中国，甚至连接近都谈不上。

QuangNguyễn9998-s1t
Like the model system in China

和中国的模式很像。

samxxu
I am a Chinese who have been in VN many times. My opinion would be the opposite, VN govt takes much less wealth from the booming economy that lacks funds to invest in the poor infrastructure, on the other hand, almost each of the ordinary ppl has a very decent life, especially in food and housing, everyone seems to pay more attention to leisure than career. as a develo country, VN govt should collect more taxes for public services, take more resposibilities other than earning good words from outside. Anyway, as a foreigner, I highly respect every decision you make, and I wish you a best future!

我是中国人，去过越南很多次。我的看法正好相反，越南政府从经济繁荣中抽取的财富偏少，导致没钱投入改善薄弱的基础设施；但另一方面，越南普通百姓的日子大多过得还算体面，尤其是衣食住行方面，大家似乎更看重休闲生活而非拼命工作。作为发展中国家，越南政府应该多收税用于公共服务，承担更多责任，而不只是追求外界的好评。不管怎样，作为外国人我尊重你们的所有选择，祝愿越南有更好的未来！

fandavn
@samxxu thật sự đất nước tôi đã tốt hơn rất nhiều khi tôi còn bé sinh ra ở vùng nông thôn , nhà tôi từng không có điện để sài , rất nghèo nhưng đến nay gần như không thiếu thốn gì chỉ là không giàu có .

说实话，我的家乡变化太大了。我小时候生在农村，家里连电都没有，特别穷，可现在基本什么都不缺，只是不算富裕罢了。

briannguyen978
@samxxu you are a foreigner furthermore you are a Chinese your country has the same system as VN that is why you try to defend the authority of VN that is not surprised, I live in VN I know how difficult an ordinary Vietnamese person earns their living currently, now you suggest them to put more tax on them, how ridiculous you are when saying something like that, the average income of a Vietnamese citizen in VN now is only about $300 per month. Many people are unemployed even the one who have graduated from universities, many people had to leave VN to travel to other countries to earn their living abroad even illegally。Some have die trying to do so. Need I say more!!!

 你是外国人，还是中国人，你的国家和越南体制相似，所以你才会为越南当局说话，这并不奇怪。我生活在越南，清楚普通越南人现在谋生有多难，你居然还建议加税，这话太荒唐了。现在越南人均月收入只有300美元左右，很多大学毕业生都失业，不少人不得不离开越南去国外谋生，甚至冒着生命危险非法出境，还有人因此丧命，我还用多说吗！

samxxu
Easy bro. Life is hard, but No pain, no gain. I know full well what happens at every stage of a nation’s development, because we have just gone through such a process ourselves.

兄弟别激动。生活本就不易，一分耕耘一分收获。我很清楚一个国家发展各个阶段会经历什么，因为我们自己刚走过这样的历程。如果财富集中在少数大亨手中而非国家手里，新富阶层最终会操控国家政策，公共服务和基础设施就永远无法真正改善，最终必然陷入中等收入陷阱。

hb0x
Strongly agreed. We have 2 sources of income: FDI and real estates. Foreigners love us: stable, cheap, friendly, worldly, and hardworking. But we work to earn our shares, not work to build for our own. Big Vietnamese-born firms are either eyed and acquired constatnly by foreign investors, or never took off outside of the country. May be a few tech startups got some moderate success, but none are big enough to drive real growth.

非常认同。我们的经济只有两大支柱：外商直接投资和房地产。外国人喜欢越南，是因为这里稳定、劳动力廉价、民众友善且吃苦耐劳。但我们只是打工赚钱，并非为自己国家建设根基。越南本土的大企业要么被外资盯上频繁收购，要么在海外毫无起色。或许有几家科技初创公司小有成就，但没有一家能真正带动国家经济增长。

vunguyen-oq5zv
i am a Vietnamese, I appreciate hearing an outside perspective on our economy. I agree that it is not as bright as domestic media often portrays. Much of our growth still relies on natural resources such as land, cheap labor, and easy credit. When these advantages are exhausted, it is unclear what new drivers of growth will take their place.

我是越南人，很感谢听到外界对我们经济的看法。我认同，越南经济并没有国内媒体宣传得那么光鲜，我们的增长很大程度仍依赖土地、廉价劳动力和宽松信贷这类资源。一旦这些优势耗尽，不知道还有什么新的增长动力能接替。

nguyenquang6262
In tiền, đầu tư công(chủ yếu phân lô bán nền) để đẩy con số tăng trưởng lên cao 10%, sản xuất thật thì trì trệ còn không có vốn, trong khi đó họ lại dồn tiền in ra đó vào việc phân lô những khu đất mới và xây dựng khối bê tông lên cho đấy(nhà hạng sabg) rồi cầm cố sổ đỏ cho ngân hàng, lấy tiền vay được mở dự án mới.

靠印钱、搞基建（主要是卖地皮）把经济增速推到10%，实体制造业却停滞不前、缺乏资金。另一边又把印出来的钱拿去划新地皮、盖钢筋水泥建筑，再把房产证抵押给银行，贷款开发新项目。

JohnJimmy-ql6to
As a Vietnamese, me tell you something… the economy is growing, but my income isn’t growing

作为越南人，说实话，经济在增长，可我的收入一点没涨。

khaccuong131
That’s why the government only mentions GDP but not GNP or GNI which truly reflects the people disposable income, GDP maybe growing but not the case for GNI

这就是为什么政府只提GDP，却不提能真正反映民众可支配收入的国民生产总值或国民总收入。GDP或许在增长，但民众收入并没有同步增加。

wanderer990
Don't agree. Even the economy is not growing. The increasing of GDP is just a lie. There's no "Growth" here. We are going to be poor...again

我不认同。越南经济根本没在增长，GDP上涨就是谎言，这里根本没有所谓的增长，我们只会再次变穷。

Gazer-x5s
Look good on paper only, the reality is way different... The population clock is ticking fast.

越南经济只是数据上好看，现实完全是两码事，而且人口结构变化的压力也越来越大。

Algerian_Sommelier-c9h
Increasing GDP means nothing without a correlating increase in GDP Per Capita.

如果人均GDP没有同步增长，GDP再高也毫无意义。

dddot-o1h
Agreed. Vietnam rely a lot to FDI which invest on small gadget like smartphone and it is easier to move out if the wage is getting higher. And looks like the reserve is quite low compare to GDP which soon becoming a downside. My friend living in Hochi Minh, the rent for local is very hight and make it is impossible to own. Only food is still cheap but it is keep rising.

认同。越南高度依赖外资，而外资主要投在手机等小电子产品组装上，一旦工资上涨，这些产业很容易转移。而且越南的外汇储备相对于GDP来说偏低，很快会成为经济短板。我有朋友住在胡志明市，当地房租极高，普通人根本买不起房，只有食物还算便宜，但价格也在持续上涨。

domuoi7017
It is the labor contractor model copied from China. The difference is China with its big market has the power to require IP transfer while Vietnam does not. That couples with corruption, non-performance-based system that relies on political connection instead of meritocracy, and little effort on advancing its own technology, it will be catastrophic and a total economic collapse for Vietnam when FDI moves to cheaper countries.

这是照搬中国的代工模式，区别在于中国有庞大市场，有能力要求外资转让技术，越南却没有。再加上腐败、靠关系而非能力的用人体系，以及自主技术研发投入不足，一旦外资转移到成本更低的国家，越南将遭遇灾难性的全面经济崩溃。

Rich-sm3ho
There should be another factor to Vietnam economy growth is that a lot of it it’s fuel by real estate prices getting crazy and the ever increasing inequality in the economy which will eventually have a larger effect than current

越南经济增长还有一个推手，那就是疯狂上涨的房价和不断加剧的贫富差距，这些问题带来的负面影响最终会远超当下的增长。

DucLeAnh-tj6vr
I get its called China Plus One strategy, extending from China, but with the direction the nations heading, hopefully our economy will be more sustainable.

我知道这叫“中国+1”模式，是中国供应链的延伸，但照越南现在的发展方向，希望我们的经济能走得更可持续。

Congtrihayankeomut
Reading at some of the comments here, it seems hard for Vietnamese to accept the economy is indeed fragile. I agree that Vietnam is at a crossroad where it has to level up which is never easy. Looking from the outside, many big projects are being built which might result in huge losses in invesment. For examples, the giant Long Thanh airport or all the highways mean nothing if they can't build deep logistic infrastructures behind it to have it playing a significant role in the supply chain.

看了这些评论，感觉很多越南人不愿承认本国经济其实很脆弱。我认同越南正处在必须转型升级的十字路口，这绝非易事。从外界来看，越南在建很多大型项目，可能会造成巨额投资亏损。比如隆城国际机场和各类高速公路，如果不能配套建设深层物流基础设施，无法在全球供应链中占据重要位置，这些项目就毫无意义。

duchoanhhoang7918
Tất cả đều đúng, nền kinh tế phụ thuộc FDI, công nghệ nền tảng yếu kém, cơ sở hạ tầng chưa hoàn thiện, giá nhà cao,...nhưng vẫn tăng trưởng cao đó là nhờ vào Fdi vẫn đang mạnh + đang xây dựng cơ sở hạ tầng rất nhiều. Nhưng rốt cuộc những yếu tố đó sẽ đến điểm cực hạn, bão hoà không thể mở rộng thêm được nữa, Fdi chậm lại do tiền lương tăng cao, hạ tầng không còn gì để xây. Đến lúc đó phải trông vào các công ty nội địa ghánh vác tăng trưởng rồi! Nếu họ không đủ mạnh, không đủ đông thì sẽ không thể cáng đáng được. Đó là nan đề mà ngay từ bây giờ chúng ta phải lo : đẩy mạnh sự tiến bộ nâng cấp và mở rộng doanh nghiệp nội. Đó là hướng đi đúng và duy nhất, có thể nói vận mệnh tăng trưởng của đất nước sẽ phụ thuộc hoàn toàn vào cú đánh này. Khi đã xác định được hướng đi và mục tiêu chúng ta sẽ chiến đến cùng, hết lớp này đến lớp khác sẽ kiên định đi theo con đường đó, chúng ta sẽ cam kết bền bỉ và cầu tiến vô hạn. Bây giờ thì còn non nớt nhưng thời gian sẽ có câu trả lời cho tất cả. Nhân tiện, cứ để họ nghi ngờ, cứ để họ chê bai, Hàn Quốc, Trung Quốc,..họ không muốn thấy chúng ta tiến bộ đâu! Đừng để ý đến họ, con đường ta đi ta cứ đi, rồi sẽ đến lúc tất cả nỗ lực của ta cho câu trả lời xác đáng!

这些说法都对，越南经济依赖外资、基础技术薄弱、基础设施不完善、房价高企，但依然保持高增长，靠的是强劲的外资流入和大规模基建投资。可这些优势终究会触及上限、陷入饱和，无法再扩张。等到工资上涨导致外资放缓、基建无项目可建时，就只能靠本土企业支撑增长。如果本土企业不够强大、数量不足，就无法扛起重任。这是我们从现在就必须解决的难题：大力推动本土企业升级壮大。这是唯一正确的道路，可以说国家未来的增长命运全靠这一步。确定方向和目标后，我们就要坚持到底，一代接一代人坚定走下去，持之以恒、不断进取。现在我们还不够成熟，但时间会证明一切。顺便说一句，就让他们质疑、批评吧，韩国、中国等国家都不想看到我们进步。别理会他们，走自己的路，我们的所有努力终会给出有力的答案！

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