华裔教授走红了，他预测美国可能在伊朗战争中落败

China’s Nostradamus: The Viral Professor Who Claims The US Could Lose The Iran War

中国“诺查丹玛斯”：中国教授走红了，他称美国可能在伊朗战争中落败

A viral prophecy is shaking up online geopolitical discourse. A Chinese‑Canadian academic Professor Xueqin Jiang, dubbed “China’s Nostradamus” by the internet, is gaining global attention for a set of three bold predictions he made back in 2024. Two of them have already come true. The third is the most unsettling:

That the United States could ultimately lose a war against Iran.

一则预言在网络地缘政治圈引发轩然大波。加拿大华裔学者蒋学勤教授被网友称为“中国的诺查丹玛斯”。他在2024年提出的三个大胆预言正引发全球关注，其中两项已经应验，而第三项最为令人不安：即美国最终可能在与伊朗的战争中落败。

The United States could lose the war against Iran. That's a startling prediction made by a Chinese‑Canadian professor who's now going viral online. Professor Xueqin Jiang, or "China’s Nostradamus" as people like to call him, made three bold geopolitical predictions back in 2024. One was that Donald Trump would return to power, and two was that the U.S. could end up in a conflict with Iran. This makes his third prediction all the more unsettling for Washington: that the U.S. could ultimately lose the war to Iran.

美国可能在对伊朗的战争中落败。这一惊人预言出自一位如今在网络上爆红的加籍华裔教授。蒋学勤教授被人们称作“中国的诺查丹玛斯”，他在2024年就做出了三个大胆的地缘政治预言。其一，唐纳德·特朗普将重新掌权；其二，美国最终可能与伊朗爆发冲突。这让他的第三个预言对华盛顿而言愈发令人不安：美国最终可能在对伊朗的战争中落败。

So in this class this semester, I’m making three big predictions, right? First is that Trump will win in November. Second is that the United States will go to war against Iran. The third big prediction is that the United States will lose this war, which will forever change the global order.

Jiang is a philosophy and history teacher based in Beiing and a graduate of Yale College. Much of his professional work focuses on education reform and curriculum design in China. But over the past few years, he has built a strong online following through his YouTube channel, Predictive History, where he attempts to forecast major global developments by studying patterns in history, geopolitical incentives, and game theory.

本学期这门课上，我要做出三大预言，对吧？第一，特朗普会在11月胜选。第二，美国将对伊朗开战。第三大预言是，美国会输掉这场战争，而这将永久改变全球秩序。

蒋学勤是在北京任教的哲学与历史教师，毕业于耶鲁学院。他的专业研究主要聚焦中国的教育改革与课程设计。但过去几年，他通过自己的频道“预测历史”积累了大量网络粉丝，他通过研究历史规律、地缘政治动因与博弈论，尝试预测全球重大发展走向。

In a talk recorded in May 2024, Jiang argued that if Donald Trump returned to the White House, growing geopolitical pressures could push the U.S. toward a military confrontation with Iran. Moreover, he claimed that Iran’s mountainous terrain, large population, and long supply routes would make any prolonged occupation extremely challenging for the U.S. Even if the U.S. achieved early battlefield success, he suggested, the conflict could turn into a long and costly strategic failure.

Jiang recently expanded on these views during an appearance on a U.S. news show. He said that through their proxes—the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Shia militias—they have been able to really grasp the American mentality and now have a pretty good strategy of how to weaken and ultimately destroy the American empire. In his most recent lecture, Jiang suggested that if the conflict continues to escalate, it could turn into a long and transformative war, one that may reshape the global balance of power.

So, as you know, World War III has started. The United States and Israel have begun attacking Iran, and we are now in the fourth day of this war. We can expect this war to last for many weeks, possibly even many years. But I promise you that after this war is over, the world will never be the same again.

在2024年5月录制的一场演讲中，蒋学勤提出，若特朗普重返白宫，日益加剧的地缘政治压力可能会推动美国与伊朗走向军事对抗。此外，他还指出，伊朗多山的地形、庞大的人口以及漫长的补给线，会让美国任何长期占领行动都面临极大挑战。他认为，即便美国在战场初期取得胜利，这场冲突也可能演变为一场旷日持久、代价高昂的战略失败。

蒋学勤近期在一档美国新闻节目中进一步阐述了这些观点。他表示，伊朗通过代理人——胡塞武装、真主党、哈马斯以及什叶派民兵组织，已经真正摸透了美国的心态，如今他们拥有一套相当成熟的策略，用以削弱并最终摧毁美国霸权。在最近的一次讲座中，蒋学勤提出，若冲突持续升级，可能会演变为一场具有变革性的持久战，这场战争或许会重塑全球势力格局。

要知道，第三次世界大战已经打响。美国和以色列已经开始进攻伊朗，如今战争进入第四天。这场战争预计会持续数周，甚至可能长达数年。但我向你们保证，战争结束后，世界将彻底改变。

以下是印度网友的评论：

auraness0208
The only looser in this war is the civilian people who suffer

这场战争里唯一的输家，就是受苦的平民。

inierinier
No, real civilians will be happy, because the most better way for all of us is the first must is REMOVING SATAN. Till it, earth planet population shall be lived in endless pains.

不，真正的平民会高兴的。对我们所有人来说，最要紧的事，就是先除掉邪恶。不这样做，人类只会一直活在痛苦里。

SureshKumar-j8p5c
The world is waiting for this

全世界都在等着这一刻。

abdulghanirosmin
thats where the problem is ISRAEL is slowly destabilizing Americas economy on purpose for greater Israel

问题就在这里。以色列故意拖垮美国经济，目的是建立“大以色列”。

r_k_rishabh
I follow him,he is a gem. But today's problem is that most of the people have very short attention span. But in my case I binge watch it. He helps me to see the world with new perspective. A global teacher.

我一直关注他，他非常厉害。但现在大多数人注意力都很差。我却会一口气看完他的内容。他帮我用新视角看世界，是一位世界级的老师。

lobsangsherap2559
In war no one wins … everyone loses something .

战争里没有赢家，每个人都会失去一些东西。

dancingnachos3634
I have been watching him since a long time . Am glad that he is getting the recognition he deserves

我关注他很久了。很高兴他终于得到了应有的认可。

Midnightblack7000
US thinks everyone should entertain their tantrums good job Iran never back down

美国以为所有人都要惯着它的脾气。干得好，伊朗，绝不低头。

SainGoatCNL
2 major problems with this war right or wrong: Deaths of Civilians and rising fuel bills. So kind of poor folk get less food too. Chose bad food.

不管这场战争谁对谁错，有两大问题：平民死亡、油价上涨。穷人也会吃得更少、吃得更差。

trisomus001
We to have such professors who has predicted such events ... 2008 event

我们也需要能预测这类事件的教授，比如2008年的大事。

Taai2024
Even i feel the same
Americans have put their hands in lions mouth

我也这么觉得。美国人这是把手伸进了狮子嘴里。

lobsangsherap2559
But this prediction of USA losing to Iran sounds so stupid

但说美国会输给伊朗，这个预言听着太离谱了。

Minecraft-de9il
Bro don't trust him blindly

兄弟，别盲目相信他。

abhijitshinde2459
This is true professor is absolutely true. It would happen.

这是真的，教授说得完全对，一定会发生。

JohnBurris-l3t
USA won't lose, but they might not get what they wanted.

美国不会输，但可能得不到它想要的东西。

nanana_annaya
Anybody who put the WIN or LOSE tag in today's kind of war is either naive or just watch too much movies. The war will never have one outcome..it is not a game, a lottery, a race.

在现在这种战争里谈输赢的人，要么太天真，要么电影看多了。战争从来不是单一结果，它不是游戏、彩票或比赛。

kolviczd6885
He meant US strategic defeat, not necessarily military defeat.
War has many angle and dimension beyond battlefield, and as you can already see this war is extremely unpopular in the US itself, and across the world. Majority Americans doesn't support this war before it even started and some of them are even supporting Iran to defend itself (not necessarily defeat US, but defend itself).
So if the war drags on for too long and the economy started to bleed, people's pocket started to burn, and American soldiers dead bodies started coming in regularly, the war will get even more unpopular and people will pressure the US government to the brink. On top of that US image as the world invincible superpower will be questioned. That's what the defeat will look like for USA.

他说的是美国**战略失败**，不一定是军事上打败仗。

战争不只是战场，还有很多层面。这场战争在美国国内和全世界都非常不得人心。开战前大多数美国人就不支持，甚至有人支持伊朗自卫（不是打败美国，只是自保）。

如果战争拖太久，经济受损、民众花钱更多、美军士兵不断阵亡，战争会更不得人心，民众会把政府逼到绝境。而且美国“无敌超级大国”的形象会崩塌。这就是美国的失败。

dreamworld2584
Eagerly waiting for this

我已经迫不及待等着看了。

sanjayneelavara6763
In war no one is a winner. This Nostradamus must understand.

战争里没有赢家，这位“预言家”必须明白这一点。

pau7001
NO ONE WANTS TO FIGHT FOR ISRAEL

没人想为以色列打仗。

Roxas_Stormcrow
Our troops should not be obeying any of Trump's orders at this point he is a rogue tyrant and he's out of control but what Americans don't realize is that they are using Ukrainian troops. They are using people from countries that they have infiltrated and invaded like India and Indonesia, AsiaParaguay Honduras Nicaragua Grenada this is why they invade these places. This is why they annex these places because they need their bodies to fight their dirty wars.

我们的军队现在不该听从特朗普的任何命令。他就是个失控的暴君。美国人没意识到，美国在利用乌克兰军队，利用那些被它渗透和入侵过的国家的人，比如印度、印尼、巴拉圭、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜、格林纳达。这就是美国入侵、控制这些国家的原因——需要这些人去打它们的肮脏战争。

anilkumarpatwa9788
"Could lose the war" is a speculation, not prediction

“可能输掉战争”这只是猜测，不是预言。

harishk2947
USA always loses the war

美国打仗从来都是输。

vaibhavbindra4862
Humanity will loose the War

输掉战争的是全人类。

sidu1237
Wow what a prediction

哇，这预言太准了。

rsuriyop
Multiple other independent sources that I watch also say that the US is likely to lose this conflict, not just Prof. Jiang.

我看的其他好几个独立渠道也说，美国很可能输掉这场冲突，不只是蒋教授这么说。

dineshkumar-to9ts
Prediction or speculation.. we observe things comes true one by one

不管是预言还是猜测，我们看着事情一件接一件成真。

ritzwik
War is already over

战争其实已经结束了。

msmsdiya
When will the war stop !

战争什么时候才能停！

AmandeepKour-vy5kj
Our professors busy in buying Chinese robots to present in AI summits. None of our professor published any realistic journal on real issues of india

我们印度的教授忙着买中国机器人去AI峰会装样子。没有一个教授发表过关于印度真实问题的实用论文。

vijayarenganramiah8418
It does not matter if they lose the war they have already made the big money. War is a bussiness.

美国输不输没关系，它们已经赚大钱了。战争就是一门生意。

Ganesh-zg8cs
If he predicted trump announce tarrif or he kidnap veninzula president or get a nobel prize or not , he is good at geopolitics
His prediction is like tossing a coin , it will fall head , the side has person face , the person is a leader ...( it is a chain of reaction , if he wins ..... can i say what next he goes after afghans , cuba and vietnam ( america has beef on these countries in past ) and which country didn't have nukes are his targets

不管他有没有预测特朗普加关税、绑架委内瑞拉总统、拿诺贝尔奖，他确实擅长地缘政治。

但他的预言就像抛硬币，反正总有一边会中。（这是连锁反应，如果特朗普赢了，接下来他会不会打阿富汗、古巴、越南这些美国以前有仇的国家？没有核武器的国家都是目标。）

johnnyjax6444
Did he said WWIII started ? so is this the world war 3 and a Nuclear Explosion will change the world and world never be the same again ?

他说第三次世界大战开始了？那这就是三战吗？核爆会改变世界，世界从此不一样？

VnHlsng
He use gane theory to teach and explain

他用博弈论来讲课和分析。

Ricardo-m5t9d
you don't win a war dancing into a 100 ml population country.

想打赢一个有上亿人口的国家，没那么容易。

Elie-g1b
Why so surprising on US losing this war with Iran? Which war did US win since WW2? Does US have the financial and military resources to ensure victory?

美国输给伊朗有什么好惊讶的？二战后美国赢过哪场战争？美国还有足够的财力和军力确保胜利吗？

issactian3143
I also predict that the US would lose and seek to renegotiate.

我也预测美国会输，然后寻求重新谈判。

vietashroffoliver2521
All war is anti life and utterly pointless. There are never any winners. All wins are meaningless, just pyrrhic victories

所有战争都是反人类、完全没有意义的。从来没有赢家。所谓胜利都是毫无意义的惨胜。