Will China become the world's leading economic power?

中国会成为世界领先的经济强国吗？

China's growing economy threatens to surpass that of the US. Several factors, from GDP to energy to public debt, may indicate which global power will dominate in the near future.

中国持续增长的经济势头对美国的经济领先地位构成挑战。从国内生产总值（GDP）、能源状况到公共债务等诸多因素，或许都预示着在不远的将来，哪一全球大国将占据主导地位。

以下是印度网友的评论：

comrade9374
Everything in my house including my phone is from china

我家里所有东西，包括手机，都是中国产的。

Haoruo-k8j
I suppose this story is contributed by Indian journalists as DW firstly posted the Hindi version 14 hours ago

我猜这篇报道是印度记者投的稿，德国之声14小时前先发布了印地语版本。

aramecioLord
And? It's not like India has no issues with China.

那又咋了？印度和中国又不是没矛盾。

JosephTin
China is the world economic power! Not will be, China IS Already the World Economic Power.

中国就是世界经济强国！不是将要成为，中国已经是世界经济强国了。

amithranga8518
Still GDP per Capita is 13000. Lol

可人均GDP才1.3万美元啊。哈哈。

rejakex860
@amithranga8518 Yes, China's per capita GDP is not high because, for the same commodity, its contribution to GDP in China's economy is only 1/3 of that in the United States. A commodity sold in China costs only 1 dollar, while in the United States it costs more than 3 dollars. When a customer buys the same commodity, China's national GDP increases by 1 dollar in calculation, while that of the United States increases by 3 dollars in calculation.

对，中国人均GDP不高是有原因的：同一件商品，它在中国经济里对GDP的贡献只有美国的三分之一。一样的东西，在中国卖1美元，在美国得卖3美元多。消费者买同一件商品，算下来中国的GDP只涨1美元，美国的GDP却涨3美元。

mrplease66
who else? the US is on the edge of a civil war and Europe thinks it's still 1980

美国都快内战了，欧洲还以为现在是1980年呢。

Wvavy
Lol we're fine

哈哈，我们好着呢。

safetydeskltd9047
China is already the largest economy by PPP which is the correct way to measure economy. The stock market cassino and dollar printing economy of the US is not the real measure of any economy.

按购买力平价（PPP）算，中国已经是最大的经济体了，这才是衡量经济的正确方法。美国那种股市赌场式经济和靠印美元撑起来的经济，根本不算真正的经济衡量标准。

rivertonhigh-b6l
When the US and EU collapse, who will import products from Guangdong, BRICS?

要是美国和欧盟垮了，谁来进口广东的产品啊？金砖国家吗？

eeming2781
The essence of economics is resource exchange. China produces products and sells them abroad, then buys back agricultural products, minerals, and other basic raw materials. Are the United States and the European Union resource producers?

经济的本质是资源交换。中国生产产品卖到国外，再买回来农产品、矿产这些基础原材料。美国和欧盟是资源生产国吗？

gandaasolomon6140
DW, you talk about debt to gdp, and you see it as a problem in china,but not in the US. Seriously

德国之声，你聊债务占GDP比重，觉得这在中国是问题，在美国就不是。讲真的？

hubquartet11
China leads ahead by far.

中国领先太多了。

evinl8440
Did you not even watch the video. China has a THIRD smaller economy.

中国的经济规模比美国小三分之一。

cstnfacu
It's been the leading economy since 2016, when it surpassed US in GDP PPP (the measure that matters)

中国从2016年起就是领先经济体了，当年的购买力平价GDP（这才是关键的衡量标准）超过了美国。

tpt5560
Maybe for a quality of life indicator but not for power. Nominal gdp is a better gauge of that.

购买力平价可能适合衡量生活质量，但不适合衡量实力。名义GDP才是更靠谱的衡量标准。

rtteng-n4x
@tpt5560 The US government, specifically CIA, calls ppp GDP “ Real GDP” and ranks nations’ economies accordingly. Another indication is the trade war. It is increasingly becoming obvious that China is holding the upper hand in dealing with the Trump administration.

美国政府，尤其是中情局（CIA），把购买力平价GDP叫做“实际GDP”，还按这个给各国经济排名。另一个迹象是贸易战。越来越明显了，中国在和特朗普政府打交道时占了上风。

MauroRincon
Not really. It matters when comparing purchasing power of the population, but not as comparison for economic output as most transactions are still in dollars and China is strongly export oriented

不是这样的。购买力平价在比较民众购买力时有用，但不能用来比经济产出——因为大多数交易还是用美元结算，而且中国经济是高度出口导向的。

is2025-j8y
China is laughing about the US chaos and steadily innovating ahead. Trump in the meantime rip the US apart, increasing negative PR for America and invests in unsustainable energy.

中国正看着美国的乱象偷笑，还在稳步推进创新。与此同时，特朗普在分裂美国，给美国招来更多负面评价，还在投资不可持续的能源。

dannybuoy138
China is already the top economic power.

中国已经是头号经济强国了。

DubeFerai
What kind of question is this? China has already been a leader for years now but these western media would try and to tell us otherwise

这算什么问题啊？中国多年前就已经是领头羊了，可这些西方媒体还想忽悠我们，说不是这样。

vikingofvirals952
China is already technology super power.

中国已经是科技超级大国了。

felixf.3392
US technological dominance is a myth. All major US tech companies like Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and Qualcomm design only their own chips. Production is carried out by TSMC in Taiwan using lithography machines from ASML in the Netherlands. The US has banned TSMC from producing its most advanced chips for China. ASML is also prohibited from selling its latest machines to China. The only major US company that produces in the US is Intel, which is no longer viable without government support. How can we speak of technological competition between the US and China here? If the US had the same restrictions as China, the US would not be technologically competitive.

美国的科技主导地位就是个神话。像英伟达、AMD、苹果、高通这些美国主要科技公司，都只设计芯片，生产全靠中国台湾的台积电，而台积电用的光刻机来自荷兰的ASML。美国禁止台积电给中国大陆生产最先进的芯片，还不准ASML把最新的机器卖给中国。美国本土唯一能生产芯片的大公司是英特尔，没有政府扶持它早就撑不下去了。这哪儿谈得上美中科技竞争啊？要是美国也受到和中国一样的限制，它在科技上根本没竞争力。

kingofarabistan
So you do believe that the U.S. is the technology leader

这么说你还是觉得美国是科技领头羊？

tpt5560
You are describing a situation where the U.S. has access to the best Chips and China does not. Which would make US the technological leader

美国能拿到最好的芯片，中国拿不到。那美国自然就是科技领头羊了。

kwokfung5644
People seem to forget China was the most powerful country for thousands of years before the rise of the west. Now it's just reclaiming its rightful place again.

人们好像忘了，在西方崛起之前，中国几千年来都是最强大的国家。现在它只是在夺回本该属于自己的位置。

martonadorjankecskes9052
About 1AD to 1800s. Not per capita of course. As overall evonomy given that it had the biggest population and huge economic differences started with the industrial revolution in Europe.

大概是公元1年到19世纪吧。当然不是按人均算的。从整体经济来看，因为当时中国人口最多。后来欧洲工业革命爆发，才拉开了经济差距。

ldon4002
A silly question. China had been the world's leading economic power for over 3000 years before the 19th century. It will come back for sure.

这问题真傻。19世纪前，中国当了三千多年的世界头号经济强国。它肯定会回来的。

mysticman1671
measuring China economy by Gpd per capita instead of GDP PPP shows how deceptive DW,s analysis is ! China economy already surpassed the US one in 2017 in PPP terms ! all China has to do is maintain a 5% growth and it will also overtake the US in GPD in max 15 years from now .

用人均GDP而不是购买力平价GDP来衡量中国经济，可见德国之声的分析多骗人！按购买力平价算，中国经济2017年就超过美国了！中国只要保持5%的增长率，最多15年，名义GDP也能超过美国。

BigOrangeMan
No one cares more about China and its economy more than these western news networks. Everyday a new video about how China economy is slowing down and it's demographic issues. If only these channels worry about their own continent more.

没人比这些西方新闻媒体更关心中国和中国经济了。每天都出新内容，说中国经济在放缓、有人口问题。要是这些频道能多关心关心自己所在的大洲就好了。

JohnJones-k9d
China is the world’s leading economy now. GDP purchasing power is the key, 55% of the world’s manufacturing capacity.

中国现在就是世界头号经济体。购买力平价GDP是关键，而且中国占了全球55%的制造业产能。

SimonHoffman-d9g
China is already the leading economic power on a GDP (PPP) basis and has been so for a while now

按购买力平价GDP算，中国早就已经是领先经济体了，而且这种状态已经持续一段时间了。

lambertgiang
Isn't China already in 2008 bailing out US from GFC with buying Treasury Bonds?

2008年金融危机的时候，中国不就已经通过买美国国债救美国了吗？

Vlady0
The first point is clearly false. GNP or GNI is a measure of production or income of the residents of a country, wherever they may engage in economic activity. So, technically, US companies producing in China can still contribute to the US GNP. In fact, even if you compare nominal GDP, you still couldn't say that "a third fewer goods and services are bought and sold [in China] than in the US." It simply means that more money denominated in USD was exchanged for some goods and services in the US compared to China. To support the claim in the first point, you would have to compare real GDP, that is, GDP adjusted for purchasing power. According to this metric, which is the only relevant one for comparing the size of economies, far more goods and services are exchanged in China today relative to the US: 40 Trillion vs 30 Trillion in current international dollars.

第一点明显是错的。国民生产总值（GNP）或国民总收入（GNI）衡量的是一个国家居民的生产或收入，不管他们在哪儿从事经济活动。所以严格来说，美国公司在中国制造产品，依然能为美国的GNP做贡献。其实就算比名义GDP，也不能说“中国买卖的商品和服务比美国少三分之一”。这只能说明，美国用美元结算的商品和服务交易额比中国多。要想支撑第一点的说法，就得比实际GDP，也就是经购买力调整后的GDP。这个指标才是比较经济体规模的唯一相关标准，而按这个标准算，现在中国买卖的商品和服务比美国多得多：按当前国际美元算，中国是40万亿美元，美国是30万亿美元。

willdoit222
Purchasing power counts more than anything else. I pay about $800 medical insurance per month if I got laid off. A kidney stone surgery cost me $30000 while the same surgery costs about $1500 in China. Compare prices in each country and income. Don’t use gdp blindly.

购买力比啥都重要。我要是失业了，每个月得交大概800美元的医保。一次肾结石手术花了我3万美元，可同样的手术在中国只要约1500美元。把各国的物价和收入放一起比一比吧，别瞎用GDP。

xyz-gn6xq
This is rediculous. The leading China expert from US has predicted that China’s economy is collapsing soon.

太荒唐了。美国那位顶尖的中国问题专家都预测了，中国经济很快就要崩溃了。

pccitizen1647
What do you expect from an Indian talking expert

一个印度裔的所谓专家，你还指望他说什么？

saeedkhan-q9p2o
If compare the prices of products in US much higher than the China .If products prices in china give the same value as in the US I think china just health equipments will be equal to 20trillions dollars , on this ground china has overtaken US economy.

美国的物价比中国高多了。要是中国的商品价格跟美国一样，我觉得单是中国的医疗设备产值就能达到20万亿美元。凭这一点，中国就已经超过美国经济了。

Wvavy
We make far far far far more money in the US. Enough to spend and have some left over. China will never catch up

我们美国人挣的钱比他们多太多太多了。挣的钱够花，还能有结余。中国永远追不上。

Alaskanguyen3456
The Son of Heaven has returned after several hundred years of being torn apart by the West

被西方蹂躏了几百年后，天子终于回来了。

yz6039
The USA GNP is inflated because it's based on spending and things like living in your own house is counted. China's GNP is based on production only which is severely under estimated.

美国的GNP有水分，因为它是按消费算的，连住自己家的房子都算进去了。中国的GNP只按生产算，还被严重低估了。

hust681
china will lead for a century from now on. that's fact

从现在起，中国会领先一个世纪。这是事实。

stardust286
China already is number 1 in GDP-PPP, Industrial Production, Exports, EVs and many more.

中国在购买力平价GDP、工业产值、出口额、电动汽车等很多方面都已经是世界第一了。

Kch-ju6pf
5% growth is not slow. How many countries have that kind of growth? Meanwhile, India has been talking up their economy like 'make in india' and how powerful they have become for years. But, in reality, their poverty rates are still a problem, and their manufacturing sectors are heavily dependent on supply chains from china.

5%的增长率可不慢。有多少国家能有这增速？与此同时，印度这些年一直在吹嘘自己的经济，说什么“印度制造”，说自己多强大。可实际上，他们的贫困率还是个大问题，制造业还严重依赖中国的供应链。

kylexy2901
its already is,the question would be at what extent is it going to leave other countries behind

中国已经是头号经济强国了，问题应该是它会把其他国家甩多远。

thiosemicarbizidebenzoylal2921
Chinas REAL economy passed the U.S economy almost 20 years ago.

中国的真实经济规模差不多20年前就超过美国了。

YeTao-i4v
China already is, by far, the largest REAL economy, measured by either ppp, total flux in energy, or total flux in materials.

不管按购买力平价、能源总消耗量，还是物资总流通量算，中国都已经是目前最大的真实经济体了。

joem0088
China surpassed the US in GDP (PPP) a long time ago, in 2018. China has the lead in green energy, nuclear, and in a close race with the US in AI in LLM and Super Pod cluster technology. China produces 50% more energy than the US, more cars, and 250x more ships, and 50% more in manufacturuing value add. Not even close.

中国的购买力平价GDP早就超过美国了，是在2018年。中国在绿色能源、核能领域领先，在人工智能的大语言模型和超级计算集群技术上，跟美国咬得很紧。中国的能源产量比美国多50%，汽车产量更多，造船量是美国的250倍，制造业增加值也比美国多50%。根本不是一个量级的。

f

angtom9128
10 years ago, there is literally very little reports about China, nowadays, everyday it has reports about China, most of them are negative though.
10年前，关于中国的报道真的很少，现在每天都有，不过大部分都是负面的。

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