三泰虎

人工智能领域的真正竞争在于廉价电力,全球南方或借助中国创新实现巨大飞跃

The real race to Artificial Intelligence is about cheap electricity. Here's how that's going.

人工智能领域的真正竞争在于廉价电力。以下是相关进展:

Affordable electric power is the most important constraint facing companies in the AI space.

The cost of AI is converging to the cost of electricity, and the BRICS countries produce new sources of electric power far faster, and far cheaper, than Western countries.

This has profound implications for the coming decades, as China and Russia expand their fleets of nuclear plants.

Globally, nations seeking to develop their own economies will realize the deep advantages in Chinese power plant construction, and Russian uranium supply chains, and build their partnerships accordingly.

可负担的电力供应是人工智能领域企业面临的最重要制约因素。人工智能的成本正逐渐与电力成本趋同,而金砖国家(BRICS)开发新能源的速度和成本,远优于西方国家。

随着中国和俄罗斯扩建核电站群,此举对未来数十年产生深远影响。从全球来看,寻求发展本国经济的国家将认识到中国电站建设和俄罗斯铀供应链的巨大优势,并据此构建合作伙伴关系。

以下是各国网友的评论:

normanmoffatt9707
Living in China it's obvious electricity is plentiful and cheap, the 45,000 km of high speed rail runs on electricity, at night every city is lit up like a Christmas tree, there are hundreds of millions of electric vehicles who's batteries need to be charged, every apartment has multiple air-conditioners and there are hundreds of millions of those, and in the 14 years I've lived here not a single blackout from lack of supply.

住在中国,明显感觉电力充足又便宜。4.5万公里高铁靠电运行,夜晚每个城市都亮如圣诞树,数亿辆电动车需要充电,每套公寓都有多个空调——同样有数亿台。我在中国住了14年,从没停过电啊。

 

thisiskevin1000
And 200,000 kilometers of standard railways and millions of kilometers of roads and highways

还有20万公里普通铁路和数百万公里公路及高速公路。

 

richardroskell3452
That chart of the biggest electricity producing countries blew my mind. China produces as much electricity as the USA, the EU, India and Russia COMBINED!
It's all over for the West, except for the crying. We should just throw in the towel and let China do what they do best, which seems to be just about everything.

我震惊了。中国的发电量相当于美国、欧盟、印度和俄罗斯的总和!西方大势已去,除了哭泣别无他法。我们该认输,让中国做他们最擅长的事——中国好像什么都擅长。

 

ZIGZAG12345
I was kinda surprised that Ru.s.s.ia was so far down that list. State owned gas/oil/uranium linked up to state owned power stations and state owned grid. It's seriously low cost there, which is why I thought they'd be producing a lot more than they are. Though their population is like 10% of Ind, and Ind only produces about 0.9 TWh more power, so swings and roundabouts I guess.

有点惊讶俄罗斯在榜单上这么靠后。国有天然气/石油/铀资源与国有电站、国有电网相连,成本极低,所以我以为他们发电量会比实际多得多。不过俄罗斯人口只有印度的10%,而印度发电量只多0.9太瓦时,也算有得有失吧。

 

chriscain7333
@ZIGZAG12345 its normal for russia, small economy, and their energy department isnt state owned, russia is more oligarchy controled than any country out there.

俄罗斯很正常,经济规模小,而且能源部门不是国有——俄罗斯比任何国家都更受寡头控制。

 

rap3208
@ZIGZAG12345 Russia is the biggest country but they have few people.

 俄罗斯是国土面积最大的国家,但人口太少。

 

teac117
You know, when everything in China is only 1/4th the cost of the west, it's not a sign of subsidies (which would be spotty) but rather, a sign of systemic efficiency or inefficiency, depending on which side of the pond you're on.

要知道,中国所有东西的成本只有西方的四分之一,这不是补贴(补贴往往是零星的)的原因,而是体系效率的体现

 

andylim3810
China is using the same vision to apply to the BRICS block. Building infrastructure. The development will come by itself. A good example is building a railway track in Brazil to bring soybean from farmers to the coast

中国正将相同的愿景应用于金砖国家——建设基础设施,发展自然水到渠成。一个好例子是在巴西修建铁路,把大豆从农场运到海岸。

 

WillProwse
China also makes the nuclear reactors now. The transformers. Substations equipment etc
China is building 28 nuclear plants right now. America is making 1

中国现在还制造核反应堆、变压器、变电站设备等。中国目前正在建设28座核电站,美国只建1座。

 

gelinrefira
China is also building safer, more efficient gen 3 and gen 4 reactors.

中国还在建造更安全、更高效的第三代和第四代反应堆。

 

KarlosEPM
Experimenting with Thorium reactors!

中国在试验钍反应堆!

 

ameschao7025
@KarlosEPM : Not experimenting. They are being commercialized already, albeit a small one. Bigger ones are being constructed.

不是试验,已经在商业化了,虽然目前规模小,但更大的正在建设中。

 

KarlosEPM
@jameschao7025 the efficiency of that people is crazy. I hope they keep most of their human-development scientific knowledge open source or at resonable prices. The global south might make huge leaps forward with their innovations

中国人的办事效率太惊人了。希望他们将大部分人类发展科学知识保持开源或合理定价——全球南方可能借中国创新实现巨大飞跃。

 

thisiskevin1000
3rd gen Guohe One (CAP-1400/1700/2100) reactors by SNPTC and Hualong One (ACP-1000 and HPR-1000 variants) by CGN and CNNC.
And there are 4th generation ones using fast breeder and pebble bed reactors

国家电投的第三代“国和一号”(CAP-1400/1700/2100)反应堆,以及中广核和中核集团的“华龙一号”(ACP-1000和HPR-1000变种)。还有使用快中子增殖和球床反应堆的第四代反应堆。

 

thisiskevin1000
@gelinrefira And SMRs based on Guohe (CAP-1400/1700/2100).

 还有基于“国和一号”(CAP-1400/1700/2100)的小型模块化反应堆(SMRs)。

 

chriscain7333
And transmission as well, good old US is a big country, doesn't matter how much energy you produce if cant delivery over vast distances at reasonable price (energy lost over transmission).

还有输电——美国这么大的国家,如果不能以合理成本长距离输送能源(输电损耗),产多少都没用。

 

oemcargps
Biden had 4 year to go green, Now trump is having a 4 year "drill, baby drill". we'll see what happens to US energy strategy after trump.

拜登用4年推进绿色能源。看看特朗普之后美国能源战略会怎样吧。

 

SupremeCannon1965
It's just maddening to see this. We still have all this know-how in North America, and plenty of raw materials. None of this should EVER have been an issue.
And we can't get anything done. If it isn't a federal or local government saying 'No', it's some advocacy gorup nobody's ever heard of. Slow death by a thousand rent-seeking cuts.

看着真让人抓狂。北美仍掌握所有这些技术,还有丰富原材料——这本不该成为问题。但我们什么也做不成:不是联邦或地方政府说“不”,就是某个闻所未闻的组织出来挠。被慢慢拖死。

 

TimTop-m3b
Industrialization is not just about know-how and raw materials, it is also about a large base of STEM graduates who become engineers/researchers and an even larger base of skilled and disciplined manufacturing workforce

工业化不仅关乎技术和原材料,还需要大量STEM毕业生成为工程师/研究人员,以及更庞大的、熟练且纪律严明的制造业劳动力。

 

charlesyang4923
Electricity cost per wattage is not just a barometer for product price competitiveness, but also an indicator and a backbone to measure index of citizen wellbeing. China surmount the collective west hugely and quietly.

每瓦电力成本不仅是产品价格竞争力的晴雨表,也是衡量公民福祉指数的指标和支柱。中国正悄然地超越西方整体。

 

Zeta-y3c
Grid stability is the main reason why Chinese cities are lit up like Christmas trees at night. No other countries' cities are lit up the same way. In cyberpunk fashion.

电网稳定性是中国城市夜晚亮如圣诞树的主要原因——其他国家的城市都做不到这样灯火通明,像赛博朋克场景。

 

BEGNEAnne
Well, you never went to Russia. Electricity price is so cheap that cities at night are illuminated as if it was daylight.

那是你没去过俄罗斯。电价便宜到城市夜晚亮如白昼。

 

KarlosEPM
Never even considered such a thought

从来没想过这个。

 

tomiputra3720
Dont forget China have a better and more efficient in the electrical grid and transmission tech than USA, So the number for energy that USA can utilized from their energy production is even less

别忘了中国的电网和输电技术比美国更好、更高效,所以美国能源生产中能实际利用的数量更少。

 

johnbigboy69
one of the most important techs that China has installed into the grid is the super high voltage transmission system that is able to send lots of power over very long distances with very little loss. this allows them to supply practically free power from hydro in the mountains and solar systems in the desert all the way to cities and more importantly, directly to server farms. all these super high-tension lines allow them to do dynamic load balancing easily since distance is not an issue anymore. i think only China has this technology.

中国电网最重要的技术之一是特高压输电系统,能长距离输电且损耗极低。可以把山区水电和沙漠太阳能几乎免费地输送到城市,更重要的是直接输送到数据中心。这些超高压线路使动态负荷平衡变得容易——因为距离不再是问题,我认为只有中国掌握了这项技术。

 

ZweiZwolf
The funny part is that China leads the world in nuclear power approvals, construction, and new operation, but China hasn't even yet started mass production of nuclear power. Today, we are just low scaling of exsting Gen III+ / IV conventional Pressured Water Reactor (PWR) technology. Where each Western nuclear plant is essentially the equivalent of a personal Rolls Royce limousine, current Chinese nuclear plants are the equivalent of a E-klasse Mercedes with a few options.
China is currently trialing Gen IV PWR against new gen Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR) technology, with a brand new TMSR plant in operation as of a a few years ago. In addition, China has the only Small Modular Reactor (SMR) under construction, so they will have actual real world experience validating the SMR concept. In a few years, China will select a winner between PWR vs TMSR, and SMR vs conventional construction. Once testing is complete, we can expect to see a huge increase in nuclear power plant construction.
China's next gen nuclear plants will be affordable, and standardized, then mass produced like a BYD EV, and deployed in huge volume across the country. We should expect to see China start replacing current coal peakers (which themselves replaced old coal baseline generation). Then, we'll see China export nuclear power globally, and THAT is what will really shake the foundation of the world's economy.

有趣的是,中国在核电审批、建设和新投运方面领先全球,但尚未开始大规模生产核电。如今只是在小规模应用现有三代+/四代传统压水堆(PWR)技术。西方每座核电站本质上像私人劳斯莱斯豪车,而中国现有核电站相当于带一些选装配置的奔驰E级。

中国目前正在对四代压水堆和新一代钍基熔盐堆(TMSR)技术进行试验,几年前已有一座全新TMSR电站投入运行。此外,中国是唯一在建小型模块化反应堆(SMR)的国家,拥有验证SMR概念的实际经验。几年内,中国将在压水堆与钍基堆、小型模块化与传统建设之间做出选择。一旦测试完成,核电站建设量将大幅增加。

中国下一代核电站会价格亲民、标准化,然后像比亚迪电动车一样量产,在全国大规模部署。预计中国将开始替换现有燃煤调峰电站(这些电站本身取代了旧的燃煤基荷电站)。随后,中国将向全球出口核电——这才是真正动摇世界经济基础的时刻。

 

astroganov
The race is already over - nice ending line

比赛已经结束——终点线很漂亮。

 

jorad4887
It's free so it can bankrupt American ai companies furthermore there's talks about USA wanting rare earth elements in exchange for Chinese EVs in the USA, this could be epic and will mark the end of American legacy carmakers

电力免费能让美国AI公司破产,此外有传言说美国想让中国电动车进入美国,换取中国的稀土——这可能很史诗,标志着美国传统汽车制造商的终结。

 

amyuen1478
That stat of more electricity than the US, Europe, and India combined. That's just absolutely jaw drop. I literally had to play the twice to check.

中国发电量超过美国、欧洲和印度总和,简直令人震惊。我真的重播了两次确认。

 

twogenders
It is true. When I travled extensively in early 2000's China, I was amazed that the the average Chinese mid-income family had so many electrical devices. Especailly in winter, when they bring out their massive electric square stove to keep warm, with AC warming the other rooms. Many houses had radiant heat installed beneath their floor too. Those things consume so much electricity. I knew then that China was out producing US in electricity and had a robust power grid.

这是真的。21世纪初我广泛游历中国时,惊讶于普通中等收入家庭有这么多电器。尤其冬天,他们拿出大大的电方炉取暖,同时空调给其他房间升温。许多房子地板下还安装了辐射供暖——这些都很耗电。那时我就知道中国发电量超过美国,而且电网强大。

 

ubiwankelubi
If ASEAN is smart, it will gravitate its policies for productivity and innovation towards China. The close relationship will make the region competitive relative to other places, while at the same time linked with China’s productivity and innovation drives.

如果东盟明智,就会将生产力和创新政策转向中国。这种密切关系会使该地区更具竞争力,同时与中国的生产力和创新动力相连。

 

HKChineseCanadian
China produces more than twice the electricity compared to America. The gap is getting wider every year. This is government investment in public goods rather than foreign wars.

中国发电量是美国的两倍多,差距每年都在扩大。这是政府对公品的投资,而不是对外战争。

 

edwardlawrence5666
We in the US just love overpaying for stuff.

我们美国人就爱多花钱。

davidaaa3523
Yes, it's a sign of quality in an arrogance society

是的,这是傲慢社会的“品质”标志。

 

rogerebanks9032
As usual, thanks for putting this into perspective!

一如既往,感谢让我们看清真相!

 

syncmaster915n
Von der Leyen will say China's abundant electricity is an over-capacity, unfair advantage.

冯德莱恩会说中国充足的电力是产能过剩、不公平优势。

 

PahatRout
There is no doubt that China will eventually use electricity as the main source of energy not only to provide night lights but also to use it for transportation, hence the EVs and the HSRs across the whole nation. As noted, with her Thorium plants, this option will be her base to out out compete every body!

毫无疑问,中国最终将把电力作为主要能源——不仅用于夜间照明,还用于交通,因此有了遍布全国的电动车和高铁。有了钍基电站,成为中国超越所有人的基础!

 

jeanchindeko5477
That exactly why Huawei GPU being 1 generation behind NVIdia should scare the American to death. Chinese AI labs just have to put more Huawei GPU to match NVidia performance and as the energy is cheaper in China it will still be cheaper worst with code optimisation ad they show with DeepSeek R1.

这正是华为GPU落后英伟达一代却让美国人吓死的原因。中国AI实验室只需部署更多华为GPU就能比肩英伟达性能,而中国能源更便宜,即便加上代码优化(如深度求索R1所示),成本仍更低。

 

PhilipTan-i1u
China knew all along that AI is very dependent on the electrical power and that is why it is producing electricity far more efficient than any other countries on the planet. China is producing thorium nuclear reactor that can produce electricity based on very cheap and abundant thorium. China is one step ahead in the AI Race as it is far ahead in electricity production.

中国一直知道AI高度依赖电力,发电效率远超地球上任何其他国家。中国正在建造钍基核反应堆,能用非常便宜且丰富的钍发电。中国在AI竞赛中领先一步,发电量遥遥领先。

 

CycOp
And it was only about 10 or 15 years ago that it was common to hear factories in China forced to close for the day due to rolling blackouts because of the shortage in electricity. Also about 10 years ago a huge ice storm in southern China caused widespread blackouts lasting weeks if not months. Things have dramatically improved ever since.

大约10到15年前,还常听说中国工厂因电力短缺轮流停电被迫停产。大约10年前,中国南方一场巨大冰灾导致大面积停电持续数周甚至数月。从那以后,情况已大幅改善。

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