三泰虎

中国真的有信心在军事上击败美国吗

Is China really that confident that they can beat the U.S. militarily?

中国真的有信心在军事上击败美国吗?

以下是Quora读者的评论:

Aania Kumar Aaish

Of course not. Remember they're Pakistan's illegitimate father, and experts in kee their people fooled by their lies. Or at least they think so

当然不可能啦。别忘了,他们可是巴基斯坦的“干爹”,还特别擅长用谎言忽悠人——至少他们自己是这么觉得的。

 

on Diplomacy & Warfare

No, but China doesn’t need to beat the United States military, they only have to make their operations so expensive to stop that the United States will give up and not interfere with China. Not nearly the same problem as as defeating the United States military.

The US is the aggressor. China is focused upon homeland defense. So it is actually a matter of whether the US is confident that it can beat China militarily, not the other way around, as in your question.

China will “Feng Pei Dao Dee”—Fight to the Bitter End. Does the US have the resolve? Don’t forget the Korean War. China is a lot better equipped and trained now than then.

不,中国其实不需要在军事上彻底打败美国,他们只需要让美国的军事行动成本高到无法承受,逼得美国放弃干涉中国就行了。这跟彻底击败美军完全是两码事。

美国才是那个主动挑事的,而中国专注于本土防御。所以问题其实是,美国有没有信心在军事上打败中国,而不是像你问题里说的那样反过来。

中国可是会“奉陪到底”——战斗到最后一刻的。美国有这种决心吗?别忘了朝鲜战争,那时候中国的装备和训练都比现在差远了,现在可是强多了。

 

on Diplomacy & Warfare

In Chinese view, we already beat the Americans in the 1950s in Korea, when we only had rudimentary weapons.

We deterred the American Navy into full retreat in 2016, forcing the American officers to revolt against Pacific Command and relieve the Japanese America off command.

By 2025, we're confident of total Chinese victory.

在中国人看来,我们早在1950年代的朝鲜战争中就已经打败了美国人了,那时候我们用的还只是最基础的武器。

2016年,我们逼得美国海军全面撤退,搞得美军军官们直接反抗太平洋司令部的命令,还把那个日裔美国指挥官给撤了。

到2025年,我们有信心中国会取得全面胜利。

 

Mike Chang
The Chinese are not confident at all. They are very afraid and know that they are not in the same league as the United States.

What they are doing is pushing things to see where the line is. Then they believe that they have made progress and slowly inch up to get away with more nonsense. The current chinese has yet to win a war. The Chinese spend the majority of the day practicing their marching for parades.

中国人其实一点都不自信,他们非常害怕,心里清楚自己跟美国根本不在一个档次上。

他们现在做的就是在试探底线,看看能走到哪一步。然后他们觉得自己好像有点进展了,就慢慢得寸进尺,想多占点便宜。现在的中国还没真正打赢过一场战争呢。中国人大部分时间都在练正步,准备阅兵

 

Will Redmond

It depends on where any conflict is played out.

If it is in SE Asia, absolutely! They undoubtedly have total sea and air superiority in the Yellow, East and South China Seas. And just to be clear they kicked the shit out of the USA and the West in Korea and Vietnam. Further I suspect that the Chinese could at the very least make the Sea of Japan a naval boneyard for any US expeditionary force launched from Japan.

Fighting China in the SE Asian battlespace is a logistics nightmare for the USA. The only chink of light for the USA is that it may be able to fortify Korea, Taiwan and Japan and use them as unsinkable aircraft carriers to enforce a naval blockade, and being totally honest I think the costs would be so high it would make the US anti war demonstrations of the late 60s and early 70s look like a children's party.

Outside SE Asia the US wins every day of the week and twice on Sundays. But I for one haven’t seen anything that would make me think that China has any plans on projecting military force for anything other than protection of national interests anywhere outside the waters mentioned above. After all why should they? Their ‘belt and road’ intuitives invest and build useful infrastructure (for the locals) wherever they go. Unlike US (and Western) corporations and governments who bribe local politicians police and military to look the other way while they extract everything leaving nothing but desolation in their wake.

这得看冲突发生在哪儿。

如果是在东南亚,那中国绝对占上风!他们在黄海、东海和南海毫无疑问拥有完全的海空优势。而且说句实在的,他们在朝鲜和越南可是把美国和西方打得够呛。再说了,我觉得中国至少能让日本海变成美国从日本派出的远征舰队的“海上坟场”。

在东南亚战场跟中国打,对美国来说简直就是后勤噩梦。美国唯一的一线希望可能是能加固韩国、台湾地区和日本的防御,把它们当成“不沉的航空母舰”来实施海上封锁。但说实话,我觉得这么干的代价会高到让美国60年代末70年代初的反战游行看起来像小孩过家家。

要是出了东南亚,那美国可是天天都能赢,周末还能赢两次。不过话说回来,我还没看到任何迹象表明中国有打算在以上提到的水域之外投射军事力量,除非是为了保护国家利益。毕竟他们为啥要这么做呢?他们的“一带一路”倡议走到哪儿就投资建设哪儿的基础设施(对当地人也有好处)。不像美国(和西方)的公司和政府,贿赂当地政客、警察和军队,一边假装看不见,一边把资源掏空,最后只留下一片荒凉

 

Alex Kaehler

Yep. Sitting in China, the view looks pretty good. China was asked by the Russians to go into North Korea to save the Russian installed Kim regime in 1950. It did accomplish that. North Korea still exsts and took over effective ownership of the regime. You remember that country called South Vietnam? Yeah, that doesn't exst anymore. Completely outfitted the NVA as well as committed hundreds of thousands of personnel to maintain the Ho Chi Minh Trail, as well as to fighting directly. China has been taking over islands since the 70s and started building fake islands 10 years ago. The US said don't do that. They did that. Then the US said don't militarize them. They militarized them.

没错,从中国的角度看,形势确实挺不错的。1950年,俄罗斯请中国进入朝鲜,去保住他们扶植的金氏政权。中国确实做到了,朝鲜到现在还存在,而且完全掌控了那个政权。你还记得南越那个国家吗?对,现在已经不存在了。中国不仅全面装备了北越军队,还派了几万人去维护胡志明小道,甚至直接参战。

从70年代开始,中国就开始逐步收复岛屿,10年前还开始造人工岛。美国说别这么干,中国照样干了。然后美国又说别把这些岛军事化,中国还是照做了。

 

James Lim

Is China really that confident that they can beat the U.S. militarily?

A better question would be are the Americans confident they can win against the Chinese militarily without ending the World with a Nuclear Winter… America losing its economic power… hundreds of thousands of American military personnel coming back in body bags… and whichever political party started this War… never get elected again…

So yeah… could USA… seemingly suffering from ADHD… concentrate enough to get things done… or did they already forget about withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan… and Biden with with his “As long as it takes”… reduce to “As long as we can”…

Seeing after 3+years of Russia deep inside Ukraine and yet the collective West… against some non-nuclear power would have done another Gulf War part 1 and 2… or declare a No Fly Zone like in Syria or other parts of middle east… don't dare directly intervene on Ukraine’s side… I guess its one standard for non-nuclear capable, not economical powerful nation… and some other standard when your own neck could be on the line…

中国真的那么有信心能在军事上打败美国吗?

其实这样问更好:美国有没有信心能在不引发核冬天、不毁掉世界经济、不让成千上万的美军士兵裹着国旗回家、不让发动战争的政党永远失去选举机会的情况下,打赢中国?

所以啊,美国现在看起来像是得了多动症,能不能集中精力把事情搞定?还是说他们已经忘了从伊拉克和阿富汗撤军的狼狈样?拜登之前还说“不惜一切代价”,结果现在变成了“能撑多久撑多久”……

再看看乌克兰,俄罗斯都深入乌克兰三年多了,西方集体对付一个没有核武器的国家,居然没敢像第一次和第二次海湾战争那样直接介入,也没敢像在叙利亚和中东其他地方那样宣布禁飞区。看来,对付没有核武器、经济不强的国家是一个标准,轮到自己的脖子可能被卡住时,标准就完全不一样了。

 

Kim Wegenke

They will if things don't change. US is talking about starting wars. They are driving away trade partners. They are going into debt borrowing money from China to build a huge army.

China is making trade deals. They are building roads and ports to help countries trade with them.

Lots of the technology being developed in the world today, started in America. Except America has no interest in develo tech anymore. China is driving tech now. The US stock market just took a hit because of innovations in a Chinese AI system

It's like the US is run by 100 year old generals and China is run by people that have read Art of War and the Foundations trilogy.

如果情况不改变,他们确实会这么做。美国现在动不动就嚷嚷着要开战,还把贸易伙伴一个个赶跑。他们甚至从中国借钱来搞巨额债务,就为了建一支庞大的军队。

中国呢?他们在搞贸易合作,修路建港口,帮别的国家更方便地跟他们做生意。

现在世界上很多技术的研发,最初都是从美国开始的。但问题是,美国现在对搞科技没啥兴趣了,反而是中国在推动技术进步。最近美国股市还因为中国AI系统的创新跌了一跤。

感觉就像美国是被一群百岁老将军们管着,而中国则是由一群读过《孙子兵法》和《基地》三部曲的人在掌舵。

 

John Butterworth

Right at this point in time it couldn't but ten years from now it just might have the upper hand.

Why don't we just sit on our hands do nothing and in ten years we'll find out.

What I've found in life if there's going to be a problem better to tackle it now than later the longer you wait always makes the issue far worse.

就现在来说,确实还打不过,但十年后可就说不准了,说不定中国就能占上风了。

要不咱们干脆啥也不干,坐等十年后看看结果?

不过我这辈子学到的是,如果真有问题,最好是现在就解决,越拖事情只会越糟。

 

Jan Meyer

I think China is confident that they do not need to.

The US is not in great shape economically and politically and China has a very good chance of holding her own on her own turf and in her own home waters.

In terms of the US trying to stop its decline militarily, that is as much “beating” the US as China needs to do:

It is enough for them to not lose.

我觉得中国很有信心,他们根本不需要这么做。

美国现在经济和政治上都不太稳,而中国在自己的地盘和近海完全有能力站稳脚跟。

至于美国想靠军事手段阻止自己的衰落,对中国来说,这已经算是“打败”美国了:

只要中国自己不输,就已经足够了。

 

Richard Kenneth Eng
Originally Answered: Is it true that China is stronger than the US militarily as many people are claiming?

Many Westerners would like to believe that the US military is stronger than China’s. Let them hold onto that delusion.

The US military has been deteriorating for decades. Maintenance, or lack thereof, is the main issue. It looks good only on paper. Just ask Col. Douglas Macgregor and Scott Ritter.

Earlier this year, 60 Minutes had a news story where the US Navy openly admitted that it had a huge maintenance backlog for its ships.

The USA hasn’t won a significant military victory since the Second World War. Nearly all of its wars have been wars of insurgency…against goat herders armed with AK-47s.

This kind of military experience is practically worthless when fighting a war between major superpowers.

Just ask yourself two questions:

Why are USA and NATO losing the war in Ukraine?
Why won’t USA directly engage with Russia over Ukraine?

China’s military is only for national defense, not global power projection.

China is a major nuclear power with more than 400 nuclear weapons and this number is growing rapidly. China has ICBMs, nuclear ballistic submarines, and long-range bombers to deliver these weapons.
China has the world’s largest army (over 2 million).
China has the world’s largest navy (nearly 400 ships), including the most powerful destroyers (Type 055, Type 052D), frigates (Type 054B), and submarines (Type 095, Type 096)).
China can build ships far faster than the USA can.
China has the second largest fleet of aircraft carriers (3) with more to come. A total of 4 “supercarriers” are expected.
China has a vast rocket force, including the dreaded hypersonic missiles. US carrier groups are not safe.
China has some of the most advanced stealth fighters, the J-20 and carrier-based J-35.
China holds the geographic home field advantage, while the US mainland is more than 10,000 km away. China can bring its total military to bear against US forces.

In other words, China is invincible.

很多人都在说中国的军事实力比美国强,这是真的吗?

很多西方人宁愿相信美国军事实力比中国强。那就让他们继续抱着这种幻想吧。

美国军队其实已经走下坡路几十年了,主要问题是维护不到位。表面上看还行,但实际上呢?问问道格拉斯·麦克格雷戈上校和斯科特·里特就知道了。

今年早些时候,美国《60分钟》节目还报道过,美国海军公开承认他们的舰船维护积压问题非常严重。

美国自二战以来就没打过什么像样的胜仗。几乎所有的战争都是对付叛乱分子……对手还是那些拿着AK-47的牧民。这种军事经验在超级大国之间的战争中根本没啥用。

就问自己两个问题:

为什么美国和北约在乌克兰打不赢?

为什么美国不敢直接跟俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上硬刚?

中国的军队主要是为了国防,不是为了全球霸权。

中国是个核大国,拥有400多枚核武器,而且这个数字还在快速增长。中国有洲际弹道导弹、核潜艇和远程轰炸机来投送这些武器。

中国拥有世界上规模最大的陆军(超过200万人)。

中国拥有世界上规模最大的海军(近400艘舰船),包括最强大的驱逐舰(055型、052D型)、护卫舰(054B型)和潜艇(095型、096型)。

中国的造船速度比美国快得多。

中国拥有第二大的航母舰队(3艘),而且还在建造更多,预计会有4艘“超级航母”。

中国拥有庞大的火箭军,包括令人闻风丧胆的高超音速导弹。美国的航母战斗群并不安全。

中国拥有一些最先进的隐形战斗机,比如歼-20和舰载的歼-35。

中国拥有地理上的主场优势,而美国本土远在1万多公里之外。中国可以集中全部军力对付美军。

换句话说,中国是无敌的。

 

Richard Kenneth Eng

Originally Answered: Can China defeat the USA?

Yes, in defence of its territorial integrity. In the South China Sea, China holds the home field advantage.

China can bring to bear its full navy, which is the largest in the world with over 350 ships. China has the most powerful destroyers (Type 055 and Type 052D). China has the most lethal nuclear attack submarines (Type 093A/B and upcoming Type 095).

China can bring to bear its full complement of anti-ship missiles, including hypersonic.

China can bring to bear its full air force, including the most advanced stealth fighters (J-20 and upcoming J-35).

China can employ its immense manufacturing capacity to endlessly replenish its military supplies during a long, protracted war. Ships, planes, missiles, tanks…you name it, China can vastly outproduce the USA.

China has the world’s largest army with over 2 million active military personnel. They will defend their homeland to the last Chinese.

中国能打败美国吗?

能,尤其是在保卫自己领土完整的时候。在南海,中国拥有主场优势。

中国可以动用其全球规模最大的海军,拥有超过350艘舰船。中国有最强大的驱逐舰(055型和052D型),还有最致命的核攻击潜艇(093A/B型和即将服役的095型)。

中国可以动用其全部反舰导弹,包括高超音速导弹。

中国可以动用其全部空军力量,包括最先进的隐形战斗机(歼-20和即将服役的歼-35)。

中国可以利用其巨大的制造业能力,在长期战争中源源不断地补充军事物资。舰船、飞机、导弹、坦克……你能想到的,中国都能比美国生产得多得多。

中国拥有世界上规模最大的陆军,超过200万现役军人。他们会为保卫祖国战斗到最后一人。

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