三泰虎

中国的大飞机真的会威胁空客和波音吗

Is China's New Giant a Real THREAT to Airbus and Boeing?!

中国的大飞机真的会威胁空客和波音吗?

 

China is set to become the biggest domestic market in aviation over the next two decades. On top of that, they have recently been designing and building aircraft in a bid to provide a competitor to Airbus and Boeing.

You may already know about the Comac C919, their narrow body challenger, but today we are going to take a look at their newest offering.  China's impact on the aviation industry doesn't stop there though. It also covers new GPS systems and even Hypersonic travel.

Can China really make all of this a reality?

未来20年,中国将成为最大的国内航空市场。最重要的是,他们最近一直在设计和制造飞机,成为空客和波音的竞争对手。

中国商飞C919是他们的窄体挑战者,但今天我们要看看他们的最新产品。不过,中国对航空业的影响还不止于此。它还涵盖了新的GPS系统,甚至是高超音速旅行。中国真的能让这一切成为现实吗?

以下是外国网友的评论:

robbrown4621

The only thing Boeing has to fear is Boeing itself.

波音公司唯一需要担心的就是它自己。

 

bearcubdaycare

I wouldn't be surprised if the new Chinese commercial aircraft were initially focused on the Chinese market, aiming for progressively reduced Chinese reliance on foreign suppliers as a key Chinese geopolitical objective, before seeking the external markets.  Much as it's been with cars.

如果新的中国商用飞机最初专注于中国市场,在寻求外部市场之前,旨在逐步减少中国对外国供应商的依赖,这是中国的一个关键地缘政治目标,我不会感到惊讶,就像汽车一样。

 

711colonel

One of the reason why fewer flights to China from the western countries is the restriction to fly over Russia.  This makes western airlines cost  much higher…

西方国家飞往中国的航班减少的原因之一是飞越俄罗斯受到限制。这使得西方航空公司的成本高得多…

 

gelinrefira

Telling the Chinese that they just have to overcome these challenges is redundant. What else have they been doing for the past 100 years if not overcoming vast, insurmountable challenges.

It's like telling a salmon that they just have to swim hard to get back to the stream they were born in, when they have been doing just that for millions of years.

不必告诉中国人他们必须克服这些挑战,这是多余的。在过去的100年里,如果不是克服了巨大的、不可逾越的挑战,他们还做了什么呢?

这就像告诉一条鲑鱼,它们必须努力游回它们出生的河流,而它们已经这样游了数百万年了。

 

Triforian

I'm not surprised that Chinese fly less than US / EU population. The high speed train network is amazing. And for the sake of our climate I hope it stays that way.

中国人坐飞机的人数比美国和欧盟的少,我一点也不惊讶。他们的高铁网络是惊人的。为了全球的气候,我希望它保持这种状态。

 

Willbrse

Brazilian govt should put money on Embraer to make one of these as well. Use the momentum, the market is needing more manufacturers.

巴西政府也应该投资巴西航空工业公司,制造一架这样的飞机。利用这一势头,市场正需要更多的厂家。

 

PassiveSmoking

Can China do better?  Absolutely, they're a manufacturing powerhouse.  Will they?  that remains to be seen.

中国能做得更好吗?当然,他们是制造业强国。他们会吗?这还有待观察。

 

1janik

I appreciate the naming scheme, giving us a nice order of A for Airbus, B for Boeing and C for Cormac

我很欣赏这个命名方案,按顺序来,A是空客,B是波音,C是商飞

 

roymoorman5990

This reminds me of my days working for a major Swedish telecommunications company.  I hope the airplane industry will keep their eye on the long term instead of next quarters results.

这让我想起了我在瑞典一家大型电信公司工作的日子。我希望飞机工业将目光放在长期业绩上,而不是下个季度的业绩。

 

jannepeltonen2036

This kind of reminds me of the comment someone made about what happened in the auto industry: the Chinese were inventing away with high state subsidies while the established Western companies were happy selling their products to the rising middle class of China - not having any incentives to actually develop new products. On the other hand, Western companies were outsourcing the actual building of their tect to China, apparently being too racist and/or naive to understand what would happen next... And now Chinese cars are cheaper and better, and Volkswagen is having to shut down factories. Also, isn't even Volvo now owned by the Chinese?

这让我想起了一些人对汽车工业的评论:中国正在利用高额的国家补贴进行发明创造,而老牌西方公司则乐于将产品卖给中国正在崛起的中产阶级——实际上没有任何动力去开发新产品。另一方面,西方公司把实际的制造外包给了中国,显然太过种族主义和/或天真,无法理解接下来会发生什么…现在中国车更便宜更好,大众不得不关闭工厂。而且,沃尔沃现在不也归中国人所有了吗?

 

rrheipel

I have flown on the COMAC C919 a few times because I live in China and fly quite a bit.  In fact I flew on the first one that came into service.  I did not notice any difference between it and a Boeing rocket Airbus.

我坐过几次中国商飞的C919,因为我住在中国,经常坐飞机。事实上,我乘坐了第一架投入使用的飞机。我没发现它和波音、空客有什么区别。

 

NerdyAviationGuy

As an av geek in Suzhou, I have somethings to say about the airport. The main reason for not having an airport is because there is already a military base in the country side of Suzhou. This military base is also very close to Wux airport (Wux's a nearby city). This military base also creates restricted airspace. One thing worth noting here is that Wux airport is a civil-military airport, which even further limits the available commercial airspace.

作为苏州的AV极客,我有话要说。没有机场的主要原因是苏州郊区已经有了一个军事基地。这个军事基地也非常靠近无锡机场(无锡是附近的一个城市)。这个军事基地也设立了禁飞区。值得注意的是,无锡机场是一个军民两用机场,这进一步限制了可用的商业空域。

 

connielentz1114

It’s stating the obvious but the current state of US politics makes all this very unpredictable. I wonder how much the possible upcoming tariff war is going to play a role?

这是显而易见的,但美国政治的现状使这一切变得非常不可预测。我想知道即将到来的关税战将发挥多大作用?

 

Billy-ke7dk

C919 engines are General Electric. The COMAC C919 currently uses the LEAP-X1C engine, which is manufactured by CFM International, a joint venture between General Electric (GE) and Safran Aircraft Engines. Safran Aircraft Engines is a French aerospace engine manufacturer.

C919的发动机是通用电气的。中国商飞C919目前使用的LEAP-X1C发动机由CFM国际公司制造,CFM国际公司是通用电气(GE)和赛峰飞机发动机公司的合资企业。赛峰飞机发动机公司是一家法国航空发动机制造商。

 

jeremypearson6852

That’s going to be one expensive plane with a 100% tariff slapped on it in the US.

这将是一架昂贵的飞机,在美国将被征收100%的关税。

 

AnenAungaphinant

Sooner or later, China air planes will dominate the market as Chineses are very hard working people.

中国飞机迟早会主导市场,因为中国人非常努力。

 

SsaliJoel-ig9pl

The most expensive business to handle is to manufacture commercial airplanes cause its not like the car industry where mass production can be realised in a short time.The cost of even rolling out one commercial airplane is staggering.

最昂贵的业务是制造商用飞机,因为它不像汽车工业那样可以在短时间内实现大规模生产。即使是推出一架商用飞机的成本也是惊人的。

 

eat.melon.qunzhong

It will basically replicate the story of car industry. Chinese first use imported parts to learn how to assemble a car, then gradually replace the import parts with domestic ones, and finally sell domestic made cars to overseas. Same will happen for the commercial planes. They have detailed plans, and can execute the plan very well to make sure every step can be accomplished in time and with quality.

基本上会复制汽车工业的故事。中国人首先用进口零件学习如何组装汽车,然后逐渐用国产零件取代进口零件,最后将国产汽车卖到海外。商用飞机也会走这样的路。他们有详细的计划,并能很好地执行,以确保每一步都能按时高质量地完成。

 

flightsimdev

At Mach 16, the surface of an aircraft would experience extreme aerodynamic heating. Temperatures can exceed 5,000°C, which would melt or vaporise most materials used in modern aircraft construction.

For a commercial aircraft to operate at such speeds, it would require cutting-edge heat-resistant materials (like carbon-carbon composites or ceramic matrix composites), which are not only expensive but also difficult to manufacture and implement in large, complex structures.

In short, although it is possible to make an aircraft to achieve those speeds, and be safe, the cost per seat wouldn't make it viable.

在16马赫的速度下,飞机表面将经历极端的空气动力学加热。温度可超过5000°C,这将熔化或蒸发现代飞机制造中使用的大多数材料。

要让商用飞机以这样的速度运行,就需要尖端的耐热材料(如碳-碳复合材料或陶瓷基复合材料),这些材料不仅昂贵,而且难以制造大型复杂结构。

简而言之,尽管有可能让飞机达到这些速度,而且安全,但每个座位的成本让其不可行。

 

magellanmax

Pre-Covid years there some fiscal years where between 20-25% of Boeing's total sales when to Chinese customers and in the same year 18-20% of Airbus total sales went to Chinese customers. That said, China alone can support its own airline manufacturer. It's wild that China has a city of 10 million people and doesn't have an airport, that means Chinese domestic aviation has the potential to be the biggest even before 2040.

在新冠疫情前的一些财政年度,波音总销售额的20-25%来自中国客户,同年,空客总销售额的18-20%来自中国客户。也就是说,仅靠中国就能养活自己的航空公司。中国一个1000万人口的城市,如果没有机场,就太疯狂了,这意味着中国国内航空业甚至在2040年之前就有潜力成为最大的。

 

Nagria2112

still waiting for gravity Engine that manipulates your inertial mass - this would be the real revolution here.

还在等待控制惯性质量的重力引擎——这将是真正的革命。

 

sportsmancraft1

I took a domestic flight in China back in the 1980s, sat down in the seat then realized the interior mouldings had kangaroo prints on them.

上世纪80年代,我在中国坐过一架国内航班,坐在座位上后,我发现飞机的内饰上有袋鼠的图案。

 

tpplatfzft

I bought tickets for mum and daughter to fly on the C919 from Beiing to Shanghai in December 2024. Mum, nearly in her 70s, commented that it felt exactly the same as other aeroplanes she had been on; just the engine noise was a bit loud, not as quiet as the Boeing or Airbus. I was like: mum, that engine was made in USA! Mum replied: “maybe they need to fine tune it to make it quieter”

我为母亲和女儿买了2024年12月从北京飞往上海的C919航班的机票。快70多岁的妈妈说,感觉和她坐过的其他飞机一模一样,只是引擎噪音有点大,不像波音或空客那样安静。我当时想说:妈妈,那个引擎是美国制造的!妈妈回答说:“也许他们需要微调一下,让它安静一点。”

 

SpencerEvans1

Ryanair would definitely look at them

瑞安航空肯定会考虑他们的

 

sipet214

China itself is so big market that they even don’t need to certify their produced airplanes with FAA and EASA, they could fly internal flights. Even they could fly internationally between China, Russia and India without certification from FAA.

中国本身是一个巨大的市场,他们甚至不需要向美国联邦航空局和欧洲航空安全局认证他们生产的飞机,他们可以飞国内航线。他们甚至可以在没有FAA认证的情况下在中国、俄罗斯和印度之间进行国际飞行。

 

randybentley2633

If the 929 experiences the same technical problems as the 919, then it is likely that their threat to the duopoly will be more difficult than they would like.

如果C929遇到与C919相同的技术问题,那么他们对双头垄断的威胁可能会比他们想象的要困难得多。

 

PerfectInterview

A vehicle traveling at Mach 16 in the atmosphere would burn up from friction.  That speed regime works for spacecraft traveling ex-atmo, not aircraft.

在大气中以16马赫速度飞行的飞行器会因摩擦而燃烧。这种速度适用于在大气层外飞行的航天器,而不是飞机。

 

mikepowell2776

It’s one thing to develop a hypersonic power-plant, another thing entirely to provide a passenger-carrying airframe to utilise it economically and, above all, safely.

研发高超音速飞机是一回事,提供一种载客的机身并加以商用是另一回事,最重要的是安全。

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