Huge gap in IIP, GDP data stumps analysts
NEW DELHI: Industrial production contracted for the second consecutive month in December — dragged down by manufacturing and mining — and raised fresh doubts about the contradiction between the factory output number and the gross domestic product (GDP) data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
新德里：工业生产在12月份连续第二个月萎缩 – 被制造业和矿业拖累 – 並对工厂产出数字与中央统计办公室发布的GDP数据之间的矛盾提出了新的疑问。
The GDP data for the current financial year had estimated manufacturing sector growth during October-December at an annual 12.6%, but the latest numbers for the index of industrial production (IIP) point to a mere 0.9% rise in the manufacturing sector during the quarter.
The government, however, maintains that the two sets of contradictory numbers are based on different methods of calculation.
While IIP is based on the production numbers filed by factories, the new GDP calculation uses the concept of gross value added for which CSO relies on data from stock exchanges, filings with the registrar of companies and also factors in taxes and subsidies. Although surprised at the gap, Aditi Nayar, senior economist at ICRA, pointed out that one of the factors behind the sharp spike in GDP-manufacturing numbers was the lower input costs.
Also, the IIP data uses 2004-05 as the base, while GDP calculations use 2011-12 as the base period. “The new base is closer to reality. Value added can grow faster than industrial production because of the difference in concepts — one is a volume indicator while the other is value-added — and both can diverge under certain circumstances,” said Crisil chief economist DK Joshi, adding it was time to update the IIP so that it was more in line with the current production trends in the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index, a survey spread across companies, released on January 1, had indicated that factory output had declined in December.
再有，工业指数数据以2004－2005年作为基准，而GDP算法以2011－2012年作为基准时段。Crisil（印度信贷评级信息服务有限公司）首席经济学家乔西说，“新基数更接近实际情况。’附加值’法能比工业指数法增长更快，是因为这两种概念的差别 – 一种是体量指数，而另一种是附加值 – 而且，在某种情况下，两者都会偏离。” 他还补充说，现在该更新工业指数法了，从而使它更符合经济中的现行生产趋势。发布于1月1日的’购买经理指数’（一项遍及所有公司的调查）显示，12月份工厂产出下降了。
Ha ha ha ha! So nobody knows what the real state of the economy is, correct?? Its all about pretensions. All these centers CSO/IIP are run by inefficient, illiterate babus who are just happy they have a 9-5 job got by influence with lot of public holidays. The govt has only to go around saying achche din and the MAJORITY of gullible, unintelligent, uneducated voting population will believe anything. Sham(e)ful country.
Those babus are not illiterate – that’s what makes them all the more dangerous. A little knowledge is always a dangerous thing.
那些官僚可不是文盲 – 那是使得他们更加危险的东西。一知半解历来都是个危险的东西。
Effect of reservation is tasted now…
All who come with back doors without marks are making mess in the entire government bodies..
No real intellectuals are there to do a proper work..
MODI is just fooling people because his ministers has no knowledge on their jobs
There are several factors contributing to these discrepancies