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印度工业生产指数与GDP数据差异巨大,难倒分析人员

2016-02-15 18:13 67个评论 字号:

Huge gap in IIP, GDP data stumps analysts

工业生产指数与GDP数据差异巨大,难倒分析人员

NEW DELHI: Industrial production contracted for the second consecutive month in December — dragged down by manufacturing and mining — and raised fresh doubts about the contradiction between the factory output number and the gross domestic product (GDP) data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

新德里:工业生产在12月份连续第二个月萎缩 – 被制造业和矿业拖累 – 並对工厂产出数字与中央统计办公室发布的GDP数据之间的矛盾提出了新的疑问。

The GDP data for the current financial year had estimated manufacturing sector growth during October-December at an annual 12.6%, but the latest numbers for the index of industrial production (IIP) point to a mere 0.9% rise in the manufacturing sector during the quarter.

本财经年度GDP数据估计,制造业在10~12月份增长12.6%;而工业指数的最新数字所指却是,该季度制造业增长仅仅为0.9%。

The government, however, maintains that the two sets of contradictory numbers are based on different methods of calculation.

然而,政府坚持说,这两套相互矛盾的数字是基于不同的计算方式。

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While IIP is based on the production numbers filed by factories, the new GDP calculation uses the concept of gross value added for which CSO relies on data from stock exchanges, filings with the registrar of companies and also factors in taxes and subsidies. Although surprised at the gap, Aditi Nayar, senior economist at ICRA, pointed out that one of the factors behind the sharp spike in GDP-manufacturing numbers was the lower input costs.

工业指数是基于工厂提交的生产数字;而新的GDP计算法运用了总附加值的概念,对此,中央统计办公室靠的是来自股票交易所的数据、提交给企业监管局的报表、还有税务和补贴方面的因素。尽管对此差异感到吃惊,ICRA(印度独立专职投资信息及评级机构)的资深经济学家纳亚尔还是指出:陡然尖升的GDP数字背后的因素之一,是较低的投入成本。

Also, the IIP data uses 2004-05 as the base, while GDP calculations use 2011-12 as the base period. “The new base is closer to reality. Value added can grow faster than industrial production because of the difference in concepts — one is a volume indicator while the other is value-added — and both can diverge under certain circumstances,” said Crisil chief economist DK Joshi, adding it was time to update the IIP so that it was more in line with the current production trends in the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index, a survey spread across companies, released on January 1, had indicated that factory output had declined in December.

再有,工业指数数据以2004-2005年作为基准,而GDP算法以2011-2012年作为基准时段。Crisil(印度信贷评级信息服务有限公司)首席经济学家乔西说,“新基数更接近实际情况。’附加值’法能比工业指数法增长更快,是因为这两种概念的差别 – 一种是体量指数,而另一种是附加值 – 而且,在某种情况下,两者都会偏离。” 他还补充说,现在该更新工业指数法了,从而使它更符合经济中的现行生产趋势。发布于1月1日的’购买经理指数’(一项遍及所有公司的调查)显示,12月份工厂产出下降了。

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评论翻译:

译者:ken
来源:http://www.santaihu.com/2016021504.html

Fossil
Ha ha ha ha! So nobody knows what the real state of the economy is, correct?? Its all about pretensions. All these centers CSO/IIP are run by inefficient, illiterate babus who are just happy they have a 9-5 job got by influence with lot of public holidays. The govt has only to go around saying achche din and the MAJORITY of gullible, unintelligent, uneducated voting population will believe anything. Sham(e)ful country.

哈哈…,所以说没人知道真正的经济状况是什么样子,对吧??全都是自卖自夸。所有管理中央统计办公室/工业生产指数这些中心的都是低效、文盲官僚,他们只为有个朝九晚五、穿插着许多公假的工作而高兴。政府只需要到处说说’好日子到了’,然后爱上当、低智能、没教育的选民中的’大多数’就什么都信了。可耻(作假)的国家。

 

Offender
Those babus are not illiterate – that’s what makes them all the more dangerous. A little knowledge is always a dangerous thing.

那些官僚可不是文盲 – 那是使得他们更加危险的东西。一知半解历来都是个危险的东西。

 

srikanth
Effect of reservation is tasted now…
All who come with back doors without marks are making mess in the entire government bodies..
No real intellectuals are there to do a proper work..

现在尝到了预留(政策)的效果了…
所有那些没成绩、走后门进入各种政府机构的,都在把事情搞得乱七八糟…没一个真正有知识的人在那好好干…

 

Kumar
MODI is just fooling people because his ministers has no knowledge on their jobs

穆迪就是在糊弄人民,因为他的部长们对自己的工作一无所知

 

Appa Durai
There are several factors contributing to these discrepancies

有好多因素造成了这些差异



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