中国具备所有的聪明才智、技术和资金，为什么却制造不出ASML那样的光刻机呢

Why can't China, with all its ingenuity, skills and money, develop and manufacture chip making machines like those of ASML Holdings, who seem to have a powerful world monopoly on EUV machines with sub-10nm capability?

中国具备所有的聪明才智、技术和资金，为什么却制造不出像ASML控股公司那样的芯片制造机器呢？ASML似乎在具有亚10纳米能力的极紫外（EUV）机器上拥有强大的全球垄断地位。

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Philip Yap

China is capable of producing DUV machine that can mass produce 28nm and below chip.

China chip producing machine is maturing, Huawei and its partner is producing EUV machine that can produce 5nm and less chip using LDP technique.

This new plasma tech is more cost effective, efficient and reliable than the ASML LPP technology.

Therefore it is not true China cannot produce EUV machine, yes not like ASML but better than ASML with cutting edge tech LDP.

中国有能力生产可大规模制造28纳米及以下制程芯片的深紫外（DUV）光刻机。

中国芯片制造设备正日趋成熟，华为及其合作伙伴正利用激光直接成像（LDP）技术生产可制造5纳米及更小制程芯片的极紫外（EUV）光刻机。

这种新型等离子体技术比ASML的激光等离子体光源（LPP）技术更具成本效益、效率更高且更可靠。

因此，“中国生产不来EUV光刻机”的说法并不成立。中国的EUV光刻机虽不同于ASML，但凭借激光直接成像（LDP）这一尖端技术，性能优于ASML。

John Pryor

ASML took around 17 years with a lot of countries involved to solve it, this is a very complex process.

China has a workaround for some chip manufacturing but has 38 of the 43 I think processes sorted out. They have 5 to go & they did it without any outside help.

As to the why currently only one company in the world knows how to make them because it’s so complex. China was therefore happy to buy them rather than spend the money & effort to develop the process themselves. They would have spent that money develo other easier things that give a far quicker return instead.

US policy changed this with restrictions so instead of being a customer they will become a competitor & quiet likely market leader in the near future. You have to wonder why the US keeps sha China to be a world leader in things at the expense of the US.

ASML花了约17年时间，在许多国家的参与下才解决了极紫外光刻机的技术难题，这是一个极其复杂的过程。

中国在部分芯片制造领域找到了替代方案，我认为43项核心工艺中已掌握38项，仅剩5项待突破，且这一切都是在没有任何外部帮助的情况下完成的。

至于为何目前全球只有一家公司掌握该技术，原因在于其复杂性极高。因此，中国原本更乐意购买现成设备，而非投入资金和精力自主研发，毕竟本可以把钱花在开发其他更简单、回报更快的技术上。

但美国的政策改变了这一切：中国不再是客户，而是成为竞争对手，且很可能在不久的将来成为市场领导者。不禁让人疑惑：为何美国总要以自身利益为代价，推动中国在某些领域成为世界领先者？

JI SHE

There is a self-motivation saying in China, "Compared with foreign countries, we still have a big gap and need to work harder." But "foreign countries" refers to the sum of all foreign countries. It not only means that China has to compete with the United States in aerospace, Germany in machinery, and Japan in Precision instruments , the production of all products must account for at least half of the world's total with ensure quality， but also means that when these countries work together to make a product, China must also compete with them - such as ASML's lithography machine.

China is a human being, not a god. You can ask this and that, but people only have one head and two hands. It is impossible to achieve all goals in the first time, right?

中国有句自我激励的话：“和国外比，我们还有很大差距，还需要努力。” 但这里的“国外”指的是所有外国的总和。

中国要在航天领域与美国竞争，在机械领域与德国竞争，在精密仪器领域与日本竞争，且所有产品的产量必须在保证质量的前提下至少占全球一半，更意味着当这些国家联手研发一款产品时，中国也必须与他们竞争——比如ASML的光刻机。

中国人是人，不是神。你可以这也要求、那也要求，但人只有一个脑袋两只手，不可能第一次就实现所有目标，对吧？

Ridzwan Abdul Rahman

Here is the latest news on this:

China's YMTC replaces ASML and Lam Research tech with domestic alternatives amid U.S. sanctions, reports Bloomberg.

They have not yet reached machines that can manufacture 3nm chips but it will just be a matter of time.

彭博社报道，在美国制裁的情况下，中国长江存储科技有限责任公司（YMTC）用国产设备替代了阿斯麦和拉姆研究的技术。

设备水平尚未达到能够制造3纳米芯片，但这只是时间问题。

Peter Kaye

Wrong again about China, they have already made their own foundries for chip manufacturing, they already made their own 3nm chips, that’s from Huawei’s CEO, if he doesn’t know? No one does,

关于中国的情况又说错了，他们已经建立了自己的芯片制造代工厂，并且已经制造出自己的3纳米芯片——这是华为首席执行官说的，如果他都不知道，那就没人知道了。

Ed Tsoi

The same question can also be asked to other major chip manufacturing countries like Japan, Korea and the US. The time and money needed to invest on such machines can't meet their immediate demands, if there are already suppliers providing what they needed, the opportunity costs to build them will be much higher. In economics, this is call diversity and specialization.

China has been enjoying this kind of free economy until the US threatened ASMLto stop supplying their highend DUV machines. Under such circumstances, it pushes China to develop her own machines. Just like the GPS and ISS program, when the West doesn't entertain China as a member, China will spend the money, and enormous amounts to catch up. Since biden imposed the sanctions, China is getting closer.

同样的问题也可以抛给日本、韩国和美国等其他主要芯片制造国家。研发此类设备所需的时间和资金无法满足其即时需求——如果已有供应商提供所需产品，那么自主研发的机会成本将高得多。在经济学中，这被称为分工与专业化。

中国原本一直享受着这种自由经济模式，直到美国威胁阿斯麦停止供应高端深紫外（DUV）光刻机。在此情况下，中国不得不自主研发设备。就像全球定位系统（GPS）和国际空间站项目一样，当西方不接纳中国参与时，中国就会投入巨额资金迎头赶上。自拜登政府实施制裁以来，中国与目标正越来越近。

Fred Chuatiuco

Peter, the EUV machine by ASML was not done overnight.

It took ASML about 17 years and they didn’t do this alone.

According to available information, ASML relies on a network of nearly 5,000 suppliers to manufacture its EUV machines, with some sources stating that the number can reach up to 800 companies globally contributing components to ASML’s complex supply chain.

阿斯麦（ASML）的极紫外（EUV）光刻机并非一蹴而就的。

阿斯麦耗时约17年才完成研发，且并非孤军奋战。

据公开信息，阿斯麦制造EUV光刻机依赖近5000家供应商网络，有消息称全球多达800家企业为其复杂供应链提供零部件。

In other words, most of ASML components rely on foreign technologies and made by different countries and this is why they are now being dictated by the U.S. for the U.S. components that are included in their EUVs.

China is now being forced to produce such machine from scratch all on its own. Remember, these are thousands of parts involved - each with very precise and complex manufacturing processes. But expect China to compress this timeline into a singular digit.

So imagine when China becomes the master of technologies that now reside in so many countries to be under its wing the type of control China can have over the entire chip industry. ASML will be made redundant and their machine that is being sold for $150 million will be reduced to a fraction of it.

换言之，阿斯麦的大部分零部件依赖外国技术，由不同国家制造——这正是其EUV设备如今受美国政府“含美技术”条款制约的原因。

中国现在被迫完全自主从零开始研发此类设备。请记住，这涉及数千个零部件，每个零部件都需极其精密复杂的制造工艺。但可以预见，中国会将研发周期压缩至个位数年份。

试想，当中国掌握如今分散在多国的技术并将其整合时，对整个芯片产业将拥有怎样的控制力。届时，阿斯麦将失去垄断地位，其售价1.5亿美元的设备或将贬值至原价的零头。

Allan Kay

The question should be, “Why haven’t China developed and manufacture …”

Antagonists had long taunted China but are stupidly blind to the fact that China is slowly but surely moving closer and closer to their goal with each successful step forward.

In the 1950s they were looked down as been poor and weak, they are neither weak or poor today. Literacy was low but now they have world class universities and their scientists are sought after. They used to have the most bicycles on the planet but now they are the biggest producer and users of EVs on that very same planet.

问题应该是：“为何中国尚未研发并制造出……”

一直以来，反对者嘲讽中国，却愚蠢地无视一个事实：中国一步一个脚印，正以每一步成功为基石，虽缓慢却坚定地逼近目标。

20世纪50年代，中国被视为贫弱之国，如今早已不再贫穷落后；曾经文盲率居高不下，如今拥有世界一流大学，科学家备受追捧；过去是“自行车王国”，如今成为全球最大的电动汽车生产国和消费国。

They have gone to the dark side of the moon while the rest are still in the dark in how to get there. There are those that claim they are leaving behind China to be in the dark ages of AI but suddenly DeepSeek pops up leaving the critics to seek for an explanation but only to find they are the ones closer to the very dark ages they had prescribed for others.

Admittedly they are still behind in advance chip production but like the rest, they have caught up and even overtook many, it’s only a matter of time that China will move up and overtake the rest.

中国已登陆月球背面，而其他国家仍对如何抵达那里一无所知；有人宣称中国将在人工智能领域“落后于黑暗时代”，但“深度求索”（DeepSeek）等成果突然涌现，让批评者哑口无言——他们才是更接近自己所描述的“黑暗时代”的人。

诚然，中国在先进芯片制造领域仍有差距，但正如在其他领域一样，中国已追赶甚至超越许多国家。超越只是时间问题。

From the many examples even during the 80s with the Japanese of how those antagonists had attempted to belittle others only to find they were left behind.

Those that are of no benefit to their own nation and who contributes nothing to it are usually the most frequent and loudest critics, thinking that down trodding other will help maintain status quo. Unfortunately for them things don’t happen that way because the rest will move on. They will be the ones in the near future will have to grudgingly admit that China is the World’s leader.

从20世纪80年代针对日本的诸多事例可见，那些反对者总试图贬低他国，最终却发现自己被甩在身后。

那些对本国毫无贡献的人，往往是最频繁、最喧嚣的批评者，以为贬低他国能维持现状。但遗憾的是，世界不会如他们所愿——因为他人终将前进。在不久的将来，他们将不得不勉强承认：中国是世界的引领者。

Tony Tan

Because China believes in world trade and every year imported more than $400 billion of chips and didn't have even a shred of desire to take that business away from others. China's fairness is manipulated by the US who uses sanctions on chips to hold back China's progress.

China has made a U turn and will soon compete with the US and its vassals in that business. China will win the competition.

因为中国主张世界贸易，每年进口超4000亿美元芯片，原本丝毫不愿从他人手中夺走这一市场。但美国却利用芯片制裁遏制中国发展

中国已被迫转向，很快将在芯片领域与美国及其附庸展开竞争。而中国终将赢得这场竞争。

Drazen Zoric

Let’s look at some facts:

ASML was working on EUV for about 20+ years and initial research was conducted by US government and several US companies. EUV initially started back in mid 1980s and involves a lot of tech. Today ASML is only company in the world to produce EUV scanners but all other tech is produced by only few other companies
Other tech besides EUV exsted but were abandoned cause EUV seem simpler way to achieve final goal. For example nanoimprint which was also developed by two US companies back in 1980s and finally in 2023 Canon released first machine but it is not at ASML EUV level
China’s most advanced scanner is SMEE SSA/800-10W which was released in January 2024 and supports fabrication node of 28nm. Btw, west was using 28nm back in 2010

我们来看一些事实：

ASML研发极紫外（EUV）光刻机已超20年，其初期研究由美国政府及多家美国公司主导。EUV技术最早可追溯至20世纪80年代中期，涉及大量技术积累。如今ASML虽为全球唯一能生产EUV光刻机的公司，但其核心技术仍依赖少数几家企业。

除EUV外，其他芯片制造技术也曾存在，但因EUV看似更易实现最终目标而被放弃。例如纳米压印技术，由两家美国公司于20世纪80年代研发，佳能直至2023年才推出首台相关设备，但其水平仍不及ASML的EUV。

中国最先进的光刻机是上海微电子（SMEE）于2024年1月发布的SSA/800-10W，支持28纳米制程。值得注意的是，西方早在2010年便已应用28纳米技术。

Will China achieve EUV?
It will but big question is when and under which conditions. China is going in other directions which were researched by west back in 1980s - 1990s. For example, electron-beam lithography -EBL. US produces EBL equipment for larger nodes, eg DLP. Going at EUV scale is very difficult.

Currently some 99% of Chinese tech is western

中国能否实现EUV突破？

能够实现，但关键问题在于何时及在何种条件下。中国正探索西方在20世纪80-90年代研究过的替代路径，如电子束光刻（EBL）。美国目前生产的EBL设备适用于较大制程（如DLP），但要达到EUV级别的精度仍困难重重。

当前，中国约99%的技术仍源自西方。