Why is China still convinced that it can overcome the United States?

为什么中国仍然相信自己能够战胜美国？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Romeo Matei

You will read many arguments in favor of China, like ”they have millions people involved in STEM research”, like ”the leaders do what is good for the people”, like ”the life of Chinese people has improved” and so and so on. These arguments are false. The real reason is hubris.

First of all, 30 years ago, I lived less than 20 kilometres away from the Soviet Union. That was a country!!!. They had the highest number of people involved in STEM research. The leaders were doing what was good for the people, aka perestroika & uskoreniye & glasnost. Also, the standard of living of the ”Russians” was at least 2 times better that our (Romanian) standard of living.

Right now Russia, the heir of the Soviet Union, is 440 kilometres away from me. And that only because Russia occupied Crimea. All those STEM people meant jack squat. The standard of living? It collapsed like a house of cards. Romanians today (after 10 lost economic years) live better than the Russians

你会读到很多支持中国的论点，比如“他们有数百万人参与STEM研究”，比如“领导人做对人民有益的事情”，比如“中国人民的生活得到了改善”等等。这些论点是错误的。真正的原因是他们狂妄自大。

首先，30年前，我住在离苏联不到20公里的地方。当时苏联是一个国家!!

他们参与STEM研究的人数最多。这些领导人正在推行对人民有益的事，即改革和开放政策。而且，“俄罗斯人”的生活水平至少是我们(罗马尼亚)生活水平的两倍。

现在，苏 联解体后的俄罗斯离我有440公里远。而且是因为俄罗斯占领了克里米亚。至于生活水平？像纸牌屋一样倒塌了。如今的罗马尼亚人(经历了10年经济衰退后)的生活比俄罗斯人好

Dolph Watts

A lot of China lovers here, but it is still unlikely that china will be able to even achieve parity with the US.

China is not food independent and probably never will be.

A vast majority of China's GDP is import dependent. While China has plenty of natural resources, it does not have enough to sustain either its GDP, nor its growth rate.

China's population pyramid is dismal. Actually the US pyramid is bad too, but immigration sustains it. China lacks the young healthy population to sustain its growth rate.

这里有很多中国粉丝，但中国还是不太可能与美国平起平坐的。

中国不是粮食自足国家，而且可能永远不能自给自足。

中国GDP的绝大部分依赖于进口。尽管中国拥有丰富的自然资源，但它的资源不足以维持其国内生产总值(GDP)和增长率。

中国的人口金字塔不太健康。实际上，美国的金字塔结构也很糟糕，但移民支撑了这个结构。中国缺乏健康的年轻人口来维持其增长率。

China has serious and significant water resource issues, farmland loss issues, and health/pollution issues. As well as a 30 million deficit in fertile age females and a significant racist attitude towards non-Chinese or half Chinese. By 2050 the Chinese population may contract to just under a billion due to demographics, while immigration will likely push the US to 450 million. China's current 4 to 1 advantage in population (and STEM graduates) will likely erode to 2 to 1. America will still have issues with rural schools and poverty — but being hungry capitalists they will still be producing the majority of science and technical innovation. China will still be pushing technical evolution (or taking others ideas and refining them).

China is convinced that none of that matters, if they simply keep pushing hard enough they will outrun all the problems that have afflicted every other country on the planet as they developed. THEY WILL NOT. They will have to reach some internal accommodation on their society to achieve sustainability because the growth curve has an upper limit.

中国存在水资源问题，农田流失问题，健康/污染问题。还有3000万育龄女性的缺口。到2050年，由于人口结构的原因，中国人口可能会缩减至不足10亿，而移民可能会推动美国人口增加至4.5亿。中国目前在人口(以及STEM毕业生)方面的优势是4比1，这一优势很可能会削弱到2比1。美国仍然存在着农村学校和贫困的问题——但作为饥饿的资本家，他们仍将创造大部分的科学和技术创新。中国仍将推动技术革新(或借鉴他人的想法并加以改进)。

中国相信，这些都不重要，如果继续努力，就能解决所有问题，这些问题在这个星球上其他国家的发展过程中也出现过。为了实现可持续性，他们应当在社会内部达成一些协调，因为增长曲线也有上限。

Sadaf Dawar

The United States has a natural and exceptional position in the world to lead it and police it.

No other country can overcome this.

China has never stated to overcome the USA, it wanted USA to respect the rise of China and its place in the world.

But the USA declared China as a strategic competitor which needs to be contained. This is in the national interest of the USA to disassemble a competitor before it can rise too much.

The west will no longer spend a penny in the media to project anything positive about China to its people, whether poverty alleviation, roads, rail network or anything.

For any small progress, the west will cry victim.

Chinese  traveling happily to smaller western nations as a savior and as if they would appreciate china's progress.

美国在全世界上有着自然的和特殊的地位来引领和管辖这个世界。

任何其他国家都无法打败它。

中国从未宣称要打败美国，它希望美国尊重中国的崛起及其在世界上的地位。

而美国宣称中国是战略竞争对手，必须加以遏制。为了美国的国家利益，必须在竞争对手实力太强大之前将其遏制。

西方不会在媒体上向本国人民宣传任何关于中国的正面信息，无论是减贫、道路、铁路网络还是其他任何东西。

对于任何微小的进步，西方都会叫嚣有受害者。

他们高高兴兴地以救世主的身份访问西方小国，以为他们会欣赏中国取得的进步。

It will also need to understand economics, value creation and currency value in order to create multiple different economic systems to work simultaneously, systematically together in order to reduce the impact of trade blows and have the dollar system as a smaller percentage arm of its economy.

It will seriously need to consider vertical farming.

It will have to become self sufficient in technology and economy with everything local and locally referenced.

中国需要了解经济学、价值创造和货币价值，以便创建多种不同的经济体系，以系统地协同运作，降低贸易打击的影响，并降低美元体系在其经济中所占的比例。

中国急需考虑垂直农业的发展。

中国必须在技术和经济上自给自足，自力更生。

Bill Chen

Overcome?

Why are you convinced China wants to overcome the United States?

Is it a stated objective?

China spends less than 2.0 percent of GDP on defense, below the NATO threshold for peacetime spending on the military. China has never threatened to lay waste to the US states or maintain troops far away from the mainland to contain the Americans militarily.

The most important national plans are the five-year plans and they have been domestically focused for the last 70 years. China is a nation that only completed the national grid in the 2000s, so it is not an exaggeration to say the nation is still shaking off the deep freeze from 150 years of relative neglect today.

打败？

为什么你认为中国想要打败美国？

目标是否明确？

中国的国防开支不到GDP的2.0%，低于北约和平时期军费开支的门槛。中国从未威胁要摧毁美国，从未说要让军队驻扎在远离本土的地方，以便在军事上遏制美国人。

最重要的中国国家计划是五年计划，在过去的70年里，这些计划一直以本国为重。中国是在本世纪头十年才建成国家电网的国家，所以毫不夸张地说，中国目前仍在摆脱150年来的劣势。

Frederic Chuatiuco

China’s confidence is based on its accomplishments. Let’s compare the US and China from the begng.

The U.S. is the world superpower since 1946 while China in 1949 was pretty much not just the poorest, but the most devastated, country on earth

Fast forward to 2020 and take two facts for glaring highlights:

• For roads, bridges and dams, China used more cement in 3 years (between 2011 and 2013) than the U.S. used in the entire 20th Century.
• For high speed train lines running in 2018, China has 26,869 kms, U.S. has 54 kms.

Experience China’s airports and JFK is third-world. Same for America’s subways (most of NY’s should be condemned). All of Shenzhen’s buses and taxs are EVs. I can go on and on to fill several pages off my head.

I believe the Chinese cannot be accused of being delusional to claim that they’re ahead of America.

中国的信心建立在中国取得的成就上。我们可以比较一下美国和中国。

美国自1946年以来就是世界超级大国，而中国在1949年时，不仅是世界上最穷的国家，也是世界上遭受破坏最严重的国家。

快进到2020年，让我们来看两个事实：

• 在道路、桥梁和大坝方面，中国3年内(2011年至2013年)使用的水泥比美国整个20世纪使用的水泥还要多。
• 中国2018年运行的高铁线路有26869公里之长，而美国只有54公里。

体验过中国的机场后，肯尼迪机场简直就是第三世界水平。美国的地铁也是如此(纽约的大部分地铁都破烂不堪)。深圳所有的公交车和出租车都是电动的。类似的例子我可以一直说下去，我脑子里有好多好多。

我相信我们没有道理指责中国人想要超越美国的想法。

Gregory Rush

Perhaps because when most Americans see or hear the word “overcome” they think of it only in terms of opposing military forces.

The Dutch once long ago “overcame” Spain & Portugal’s influence in Japan by simply promising not to try & enact any “Regime Change”; as in proselytizing people there to adopt Christianity.

The Japanese leadership still did desire trade with western Europe, so they banished the irritating first-arrivers and welcomed the Dutch. No Dutch military action was necessary.

That seems like a good analogy to where the U.S. finds itself with Chinese ambitions today.

As long as they don’t declare directly or indirectly any predatory military ambitions against us and stick mainly to “business growth as planned”, complaints & sanctions are all they might expect to receive in the way of resistance.

也许是因为当大多数美国人看到或听到“战胜”这个词时，他们唯一想到的就是敌对的军事力量。

荷兰人曾经在很久以前“遏制”了西班牙和葡萄牙对日本的影响，比如让那里的人改信基督教。

日本领导人仍然希望与西欧进行贸易，因此他们驱逐了那些令人恼火的先行者，欢迎荷兰人的到来。荷兰没有必要采取军事行动。

这似乎跟今天美国对中国的企图有相似之处。

Ngee Kiat Low

China does not need to overcome the USA, it can survive on its own huge 500m+ middle class markets now, largest in the world. It is the US that needs to persuade the world that endless US deficits and unlimited printing of Tbills and QEs (money printing) are a good thing and should be allowed.

If printing money becomes the world standard, there will be no need for hardwork and innovation, no good and services after that

All China needs to do is keep its own economy steady despite US provocations. And US and usd hegemony will collapse as the world realises there is a freeloader on everyone’s hard work. And looking at Chinese numbers, this is not difficult to do. And looking at US huffing and puffing, it is not doing all that well convincing the world. Only the Anglosaxon gang are signed on, reluctantly too.

中国不需要战胜美国，可以依靠自己5亿多的中产阶级市场运转，这是世界上最大的市场。相反，美国需要说服世界，其无止境的赤字和无限量印钞是一件好事，应该得到各国的允许。

如果印钞成为世界标准，就不需要努力和创新，也不需要好的服务了。

尽管美国不断挑衅，中国所需要做的只是保持本国经济稳定。当世界意识到每个人的努力工作只是便宜了那些米虫时，美国和美元的霸权将会崩溃。

 译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/p/51131.html 译者：Joyceliu

Ridzwan Abdul Rahman

Because they have no reason to believe otherwise.

For example. China’s trade surplus with the US for the first 6 months of this year is larger than for the first 6 months of last year.

In July, China’s trade surplus was $44.58 billion and in August it was $34.83 billion. That’s $79.41 billion for the two months, about $4 billion more than the same months last year.

In other words, despite the tariffs, China continues to sell more to the US than it buys from the US.

Meanwhile, US farmers are suffering. And starting from September, US importers will be paying more in tariffs. It could mean that consumers will end up paying more.

因为他们没有理由不相信。

例如，今年前6个月，中国对美国的贸易顺差高于去年同期。

7月份，中国贸易顺差为445.8亿美元，8月份为348.3亿美元。这两个月的销售额为794.1亿美元，比去年同期增加了约40亿美元。

换句话说，尽管征收了关税，中国对美国的出口仍大于中国从美国的进口。

与此同时，美国农民也在受苦。从9月开始，美国进口商不得不支付更高的关税。这可能意味着消费者最终需要花费更多的钱。

Donald R Stein

As in any conflict between nations, each side works in behalf of its own national interests. The President is so obsessed with wng that he has turned trade issues which should have begun with diplomatic negotiations into a trade war without even attempting diplomacy. He says, “Trade wars are so easy to win.” The Chinese have 1.3 billion people. Over 400,000 have joined the world’s middle class consumer society. In the future they, not us, will be the worlds largest consumer of everything. We need to stop thinking about overcoming and prepare for super power co-exstence. Our president is obsessed with “wng”. No one is wng. Especially the working class, who did not get a significant tax cut and may have to spend $1000.00 more in tariff cost in the coming year.

就像在任何国家间发生的冲突一样，每一方都在为自己的国家利益而努力。总统对取胜太过在意，以至于他甚至没有尝试外交手段，就把本应先通过外交谈判进行的贸易问题变成了贸易战。他说:“贸易战很容易取胜。“中国有13亿人口。超过40万人加入了世界中产阶级消费阶层。未来，他们，非我们，将成为世界上最大的消费者群体。我们需要停止思考如何取胜的问题，为超级大存做好准备。我们的总统痴迷于“取胜”。没有人是赢家。特别是工人阶级，他们没有得到显著的减税，也许在未来还不得不一年多花费1000美元的关税成本。

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