Why Vietnam War Was COMPLETELY Avoidable

越南战争本可以完全避免吗

Was the Vietnam War completely avoidable? In 1945, Ho Chi Minh opened Vietnam's declaration of independence with words from the American Declaration of Independence — and American planes flew over Hanoi to cheers. Twenty years later, those same planes were drop bombs. More than 58,000 Americans and 2–3 million Vietnamese died. So how did America go from Ho Chi Minh's friend to his enemy?

越南战争真的完全可以避免吗？1945年，胡志明在越南独立宣言的开篇引用了美国《独立宣言》中的语句，彼时美国飞机飞抵河内上空，受到民众欢呼。二十年后，同样是美国战机，却在这片土地投下炸弹。超过5.8万名美国人丧生，200万至300万越南人殒命。那么，美国是如何从胡志明的友人变成他的敌人的？

This animated history documentary follows 5 presidents and 5 chances to walk away: Roosevelt's plan to keep France out of Indochina, Truman ignoring Ho Chi Minh's letters, OSS officer Peter Dewey's warning, Eisenhower refusing to save the French at Dien Bien Phu, the domino theory, the 1956 election that never happened, Kennedy, Diem and the advisers, Lyndon Johnson's secret tapes, and the Gulf of Tonkin incident — the attack that almost certainly never happened. Then Robert McNamara meets General Giap in Hanoi and asks the question that changes everything.

五位美国总统，本可以有五次抽身退出的机会：罗斯福计划将法国逐出印度；杜鲁门对胡志明的信件置之不理；战略情报局官员彼得・杜威发出的警告；艾森豪威尔拒绝在奠边府驰援法军；多米诺骨牌理论；未能如期举行的 1956 年大选；肯尼迪、吴廷琰与军事顾问；林登・约翰逊的秘密录音带；还有北部湾事件。

第一次机会：罗斯福

罗斯福不认可法国对印度（今越、老、柬）长达约 80 年的殖民统治。他计划二战结束后，不让法国收回殖民地，由国际托管，之后让当地独立。但 1945 年 4 月罗斯福突然离世，计划中断。

第二次机会：杜鲁门

继任的杜鲁门优先考虑欧洲局势，需要法国作为对抗苏联的盟友，因此同意法国重建殖民帝国。胡志明至少 8 次写信、发电报给杜鲁门，请求美国支持越南独立，杜鲁门一概没有回复。美方认为胡志明是坚定的人，信件只是计谋

第三次机会：艾森豪威尔

1954 年奠边府战役，法军陷入重围，向美国求援，甚至请求动用轰炸机、原子弹。艾森豪威尔拒绝直接出兵。奠边府失守，法国彻底失去印度。但艾森豪威尔提出多米诺骨牌理论，认为越南一旦落入对方阵营，亚洲其他国家会接连倒下。

第四次机会：肯尼迪

肯尼迪扶持南越领导人吴廷琰。吴廷琰不得民心，佛教僧侣上街抗议。肯尼迪派出约 16000 名美国军事顾问（非作战部队），他内心也有疑虑，认为这场战争终究该由越南人自己决定胜负。

第五次机会：约翰逊

约翰逊私下录音坦言，他并不认为越南值得一战，又害怕自己成为 “丢掉越南” 的总统。

以下是各国网友的评论：

yevonsama
during that period, Ho actually sent letters to both U.S and Soviet to ask for help. But not only U.S refuses, but also Stalin ignores him, too.
Until 1949, it is (who has just won China Civil War) agree to send supplies to him.

那段时间，胡志明曾同时写信给美国和苏联寻求援助。美国拒绝了他，斯大林也没有理会。直到1949年，中国才同意向胡志明提供物资支援。

likestotalkabouteverything
The US abandoned a potential ally to help someone who had served as a puppet of the fascists (France).
To put it bluntly, the US brought Vietnam under Soviet influence, and didn't they realize this was Tito's Yugoslavia in the East? Even Stalin initially suspected Ho Chi Minh was another Tito.

美国舍弃了一个潜在盟友，转头去帮曾经依附法西斯的法国。直白点说，是美国亲手把越南推向苏联阵营。他们难道看不出，这就是东方的南斯拉夫（铁托）吗？就连斯大林一开始都怀疑，胡志明会成为第二个铁托。

PureMilk-k1i
Because he also sent help to China in their war
So China being the first one to reply is honest not that surprising
They were pals even before the ww2

因为胡志明这边也曾帮助中国打赢战争所以中国第一个回应他，其实并不意外。早在二战之前，双方就已经互相支援。

VuNam_MCVN
@PureMilk-k1i pals... let's be honest... we were not that friendly towards each other especially during imperial era

 说是伙伴，说实话，两国关系并没有那么和睦，封建王朝时期尤其如此。

PureMilk-k1i
@VuNam_MCVN ? Vấn đề là lúc thời thế loạn lạc thì cả hai Đảng đều hỗ trợ nhau. Trước sau không quan trọng. Kể cả lúc chống Pháp thì Việt-Trung quan hệ vẫn tốt cho tới thời kí Geneva. Và cái kết luận quan hệ hai nước không thân thiện với nhau thời phong kiến vẫn sai. Đề phòng chứ không phải không giao thương và trao đổi văn hoá. Nếu mà quan hệ tệ tới thế thì Đại Việt đã không nhận lính bại trận của nhà Tống rồi; tệ thì phải xem Chăm Pa ấy - nó bắt tay với phương Bắc để đớp Đại Việt luôn mà, trong khi đó Đại Việt còn không chơi xỏ nhà Tống trước lời đề nghị của quân Mông

 关键是乱世当中，两国互相扶持，先后顺序不重要。就算是抗法战争阶段，越中关系在日内瓦会议之前都很好。你说封建时代两国一直不和，这个说法并不准确。当时只是互相提防，并不是没有商贸和文化往来。要是关系真的差到那种地步，大越国当初就不会收容宋朝的败兵。真正关系恶劣的是占婆国，占婆联合北方势力攻打大越。反观大越，面对蒙古军队，也没有背刺宋朝。

VuNam_MCVN
@PureMilk-k1i "were not that friendly" thì chả phải đề phòng là gì... bằng mặt nhưng ko bằng lòng, mình muốn giữ quan hệ tốt nhưng lâu lâu vẫn bị Trung nó đàn áp với xâm lược hoài.

 “关系不算和睦”，指的就是互相提防啊。表面维持往来，内心各有戒备。我们本想好好相处，却不断遭到来自北方的打压和入侵。

akagenius-l3s
And then both U S and Soviet get their asses involved the war

之后美国和苏联双双深陷这场战争。

stevel9678
The first missed letter was the one Ho Chi Minh, employees as a kitchen worker, sent to Wilson at Versailles, asking for the US to apply its ideals of independence to Vietnam. He never got a reply. Woodrow Wilson could have stopped the Vietnam wars against the French and the US in the 1920s.

第一封石沉大海的信件，是当年还在做厨房杂工的胡志明，在凡尔赛和会期间写给威尔逊的。他请求美国把独立理念也用到越南身上，但是没有收到任何回信。伍德罗·威尔逊本可以在20年代，就阻止后续对抗法国、对抗美国的越南战争。

vicnighthorse
Some of us actually read Archimedes Patti's "Why Vietnam" back when it was first published.

当年阿基米德·帕蒂的《越南为何开战》刚出版的时候，我们当中有些人就读过这本书。

martinsteegh160
So based on my elaboration of the painful incident that caused he death of colonel Dewey (age 29 or 28, I guess in wartime promotions can be quickly made) I would say Truman had the best opportunity of making Vietnam (that was at the time already an ally - in the last 5 months of the war with Japan) a country with whom war was not necessary. They should have not have supported the French (like the did not support "us", i.e. the Netherlands in Indonesia, on the contrary they threatened to stop the aid through the "Marshall plan if we didn't give it up Indonesia).

我仔细梳理了杜威上校遇难这件悲剧（他当时28或29岁，战时军衔晋升往往很快）。我认为杜鲁门当时手握最好的机会：越南在对日战争最后五个月已经是美方盟友，本可以避免和越南开战。美国不该去支持法国。当年美国就没有支持荷兰在印尼的殖民统治，反而威胁，如果荷兰不肯放弃印尼，就切断马歇尔计划援助。

VuNam_MCVN
Ye, as a Vietnamese learning about a thousand years of constant wars and conquests from the North "friend" called China, I still have a very strong view against them and their history, even more than America.

没错。我是越南人，学习历史时看到千年以来，这个北方“友邦”不断发动战争、入侵越南。直到现在，我对他们以及这段历史仍然抱有强烈的抵触，甚至超过对美国的反感。

chithiennguyen1371
The French colonised Vietnam for 80 years. They were stealing resources, abuse the locals and exploiting people for labour work. The French banned education and healthcare for the average people, and created classes. People who were not Catholics faced all kind of hardships, and people who were Catholics have a privilege life style. Life expectancy was 37 years, and 90% people were illiterate. Majority of the Vietnamese hate the French and the Vietnamese were on the French side.
In 1917, Ho Chi Minh sent letters to the US for help against the French colonisers, and he was rejected. Letter China and the Soviet help him and wonder why co unists are so popular in Vietnam.
1940-1945, the US told Ho Chi Minh, if he help them fight the Japanese, they will recognise Vietnam's independence. After the Japanese defeated, the US told the French to go ahead invade Vietnam, and back up the French.
1945-1954 The French established the State of Vietnam, created a puppet government in Vietnam made up by the wealthy minority Catholic Vietnamese who been royal to the French.
1954, the French lost to Ho Chi Minh. Vietnam was temporarily splited in two with North Vietnam ruled by Ho Chi Minh and South Vietnam ruled by the former French puppet government, and there was the promise reunification elections.
1955-1975 The former French puppet government turned itself into the US puppet government. They violated the Geneva 1954, cancelled the reunification and started the war.
The South Vietnamese government was known to be the former French puppets, continued the abuses that the French did in Vietnam, and was extremely hated and unpopular with the population, and dic ship in Vietnam. Most people in South Vietnam fought against the government. The South Vietnamese government was losing against not just the co unists but also most of it's own people, so the US have to step in to stop it from collapsing.

法国殖民越南长达80年。他们掠夺资源、欺压本地人，压榨民众充当劳工。法国人限制普通百姓接受教育、获得医疗，划分社会等级。非天主教徒受尽各种刁难，天主教徒则享有特权。当时人均寿命只有37岁，九成民众是文盲。绝大多数越南人痛恨法国人。

1917年，胡志明写信给美国，请求协助反抗法国殖民者，结果遭到拒绝。等到后来中国和苏联伸出援手，美国人又疑惑，为什么*主义在越南如此受欢迎。

1940至1945年，美国对胡志明承诺：只要帮忙抗击日军，美国就承认越南独立。可日本战败之后，美国却默许法国重新入侵越南，还给法国提供支持。

1945至1954年，法国建立越南国，扶持傀儡政权。这个政权由少数富裕、效忠法国的越南天主教徒组成。

1954年，法国败给胡志明。越南临时一分为二：北越由胡志明治理，南越由原来的法国傀儡政府掌权。各方约定举行统一大选。

1955至1975年，原先法国的傀儡政权摇身一变，成了美国的傀儡政权。南越政府违反1954年《日内瓦协议》，取消国家统一大选，战争就此爆发。

南越政府本身就是旧法国傀儡，延续法国人当年的压迫统治，实行独才，在民间极不得人心。南越大部分民众都反抗这个政府。南越政府不光打不过*主义力量，连本国大部分民众都站在对立面。美国只能亲自介入，防止南越政权垮台。

Therearethings8148
All wars can be avoided. One side may decide not to attack, while the other side may, for example, surrender. Of course, the cost of such decisions to one side or the other is another matter.

所有战争本来都可以避免。一方可以选择不发起进攻，另一方也可以选择投降。当然，做出这类选择所要付出的代价，就是另外一回事了。

supertiger_86
Yep, us could have worked with Hochiminh and turned vietnam into a market economy

没错。美国当初本可以和胡志明合作，把越南发展成市场经济国家。

FloatingCloud-x3g
It is ironic that Ho Chi Minh advocated for de ocracy and universal suffrage when the national literacy rate was a mere 2%, while some contemporary Vietnamese leaders argue that the people are too ignorant and stupid for it.

很讽刺。当年胡志明呼吁普选权，那时候全国识字率仅仅只有2%。而如今一些越南领导人却说，民众愚昧，不配拥有这些权利。

martinsteegh160
Ho Chi Minh wrote (to Truman) when colonel Dewey had been killed that "this would never happend again, only over my dead body" and gave a message to major Patti of the OSS (later CIA) who was fighting with Ho and his Viet Minh guerilla's and 50 OSS specialists in guerilla warfare against the Japanese (from April 1945). This message was: "to the American people: the Vietnamese will never fight against the Americans". The accident - Dewey - (also from the OSS) being killed by the Viet Minh in the neighborhood of Saigon(!) was at least partially to blame to the British military authorities who were at that moment "in control" of the southern part of Vietnam and the commander of Saigon forbade the Americans to display any American signs, so also on uniforms and jeeps - a blue and white star on the jeep would have most likely averted the deadly accident). Source: Vietnam: The ten thousand days war by Michael MacLear (1981).

杜威上校遇害之后，胡志明致信杜鲁门，表示“绝不让这类事件重演，除非我死”。他还捎话给战略情报局的帕蒂少校。1945年4月起，帕蒂就和胡志明领导的越盟游击队，以及50名战略情报局游击战专家一起对抗日军。胡志明托他向美国人民传递一句话：“越南人永远不会和美国人作战。”

杜威本人也隶属于战略情报局，他在西贡近郊被越盟误杀。这场悲剧，一部分责任在于当时接管越南南部的英军当局。西贡英军指挥官禁止美国人展示任何美国标识，制服、吉普车上都不能有。如果吉普车上保留蓝白星标识，这场致命误会大概率就能避免。资料来源：迈克尔·麦克利尔《越南：万日战争》（1981）。

lawrencebeck
US said to Ho, help us against Japan and we will help you gain independence. War ends and the US says to France, go ahead and reclaim your colonies
Then after country is split when the French leave with a promise as part of peace deal that free reunification elections would take place, US tells the small group of wealthy in control of the south. it is ok if you don't followup.

美国当初跟胡志明许诺：帮我们打日本，我们就帮你们争取独立。战争结束，美国却告诉法国：尽管回去夺回你的殖民地。

法国撤军后，越南国土被分割。和平协议写明，要举行全国统一大选。可美国私下告诉掌控南越的少数富人：不履行这个约定也没关系。