China's Breakout DRAM Beast

中国崛起的 DRAM 巨头

DRAM has been the graveyard of semiconductor empires. Competing in this market is not for the faint of heart. After decades, the DRAM industry consolidated to just three big companies: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. But now they are being challenged by a new kid on the block. A Chinese DRAM monster emerging out of Hefei: Changin Memory Technologies, or CXMT (长鑫存储).

动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）向来是半导体帝国的坟场，在此市场竞争绝非胆小者可为。历经数十年，DRAM 行业已整合为三家巨头：三星、SK 海力士与美光。然而如今，这些巨头正面临一位新晋挑战者 —— 从合肥崛起的中国 DRAM 巨兽：长鑫存储技术有限公司（CXMT）。

以下是各国网友的评论：

rzlnie
In fact, DRAM and NAND are among the few semiconductor products that use futures and contract delivery.

其实，动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）和闪存（NAND）是少数采用期货和合约交付的半导体产品。

stachowi
It’s a commodity. So that makes sense

这是大宗商品，所以说得通。

JasminUwU
They're trading in RAM chips like rice

他们拿内存芯片当大米交易呢。

CristianmrWuno
The mitigation of price volatility is a big reason for that, it can withstand price fluctuations to shifts in demand and overall market conditions.

缓解价格波动是一大原因，这样能扛住需求和整体市场环境变化带来的价格波动。

chopsuey33
@JasminUwU the japanese pioneered that saying . “ the rice of the industry” is

这说法是日本人先提的，“行业大米”嘛。

gettyyoung46
Jet engines are dominated by US and UK companies. China is not a player in that business.

喷气发动机被英美公司垄断，中国在这一块还没入局呢。

CristianmrWuno
At the moment from what I know the WS-15 intended for the J-20 has issues when it comes to reliability, durability, and achieving full-scale production. Of course they have done advancements like the WS-10 series, but their specialized WS-15 engines are still experiencing issues with their single-crystal turbine blades and overall performance in practical applications.

就我所知，目前给歼-20用的WS-15在可靠性、耐用性和量产上还有问题。当然他们有WS-10系列这样的先进发动机，但专用的WS-15发动机在单晶涡轮叶片和实际应用中的整体性能上还是有毛病。

padraicley3265
I was a Semiconductor engineer at TI in the 1980s, working on DRAM sales for IBM. I just bought the Chinese memory chip over Samsung today at 2/3 of the price. I used to buy from Samsung or Micron.

80年代我在德州仪器（TI）当半导体工程师，负责给IBM卖DRAM。今天我买了中国内存芯片，价格是三星的三分之二，以前我都买三星或者美光的。

michaeljiang960
US>Japan>Korea>China, that's the natural evolution of global economic development, the only question is who is next?

美国>日本>韩国>中国，这是全球经济发展的自然演进，现在唯一的问题是下一个是谁崛起？

AthleticHobo-br4qh
Yeah India is next probably, perhaps Indonesia or Malaysia which are getting huge FDI from tech companies could also eventually.

嗯，下一个崛起的可能是印度巨头，或者印尼、马来西亚，这些拿了科技公司大量外国直接投资的地方最后也有可能。

KarlFredrik
Malaysia is too small with just 30M people. India will take some but has never showed dominance in manufacturing so far

马来西亚太小了，只有3000万人口。印度可能会分一杯羹，但到目前为止在制造业里还没显过优势。

wote100-bx3ct
When Chinese companies enter a market, prices tend to approach zero. Western companies often aim to dominate the market and maxmize profits, whereas Chinese companies focus on working hard to drive prices down to near zero. People resent Chinese companies for offering cheap products, preferring to pay ten times more for similar items. Human behavior can be quite puzzling.

中国公司进入市场后，价格往往会趋近于零。西方公司总想着垄断市场赚最多的钱，而中国公司则埋头苦干把价格压到近乎为零的白菜价。人们讨厌中国公司卖便宜货，宁愿花十倍价钱买差不多的东西，这人性真是够迷的。

danielch6662
My economics lecturer call this near zero profits "normal profits".

我经济学老师把这种近乎为零的利润叫“正常利润”。

demonridera
China is able to drive prices down because the Chinese people save too much and the bank rates are low. So you can throw a lot of money at businesses that make no profit. You open a factory for GDP, not for profit in China. Japan could at least recycle the savings into foreign investment. China is not able to do that

中国能把价格压下来，是因为中国人储蓄率太高，而且银行利率低。所以能往不赚钱的企业里砸很多钱。在中国开工厂是为了GDP，不是为了盈利。日本至少还能把储蓄用来搞海外投资，中国没法这么做。

johnw1954
computers are fucking crazy man

电脑这东西简直离谱。

MarktheRude
And components are difficult as hell to manufacture as it turns out!

结果发现元器件制造难上天！

stevengill1736
Maybe Trump shoulda said, "everything is data!"

也许特朗普该说“万物皆数据”！

Charlie-xx2wj
I took a course in basic semiconductor technology, and it involves math, physics, math, and chemistry, materials. it was among the top hardest courses i'd taken in engineering school, and i still don't know what they're talking about. i did like Boolean logic though.

我上过一门半导体基础技术课，又是数学、物理，又是化学、材料学。这是我在工学院上过最难的课之一，到现在都没搞懂在讲啥，不过我还挺喜欢布尔逻辑的。

Archonsx
you are just not that smart

你就是没那么聪明呗。

funny-tech-bro
So DRAM is basically digital oil. A high capex commodity that has huge boom and busts.

所以DRAM根本就是数字石油啊，高资本支出，大起大落的大宗商品。

lenOwOo
When the ddr4 price fell, i would maybe. . Finally able to max out my system ram

等DDR4降价，我可能终于能把电脑内存插满了。

guspaz
This is generally a bad idea, as it requires sacrificing performance. Max out whatever you can do in two slots. If you use four slots, you’ll need to reduce memory clocks or loosen timings.

这通常不是个好主意，因为得牺牲性能。在两个插槽里插满就行，如果用四个插槽，就得降内存频率或者放宽时序。

randomizedthinking
It is an interesting story that the DRAM price was so volatile in the past. I know Asianometry is mostly into technology, yet the politics associated is as interesting.

以前DRAM价格波动那么大，这事儿挺有意思的。我知道Asianometry主要讲技术，但背后的政治也一样有意思。

cem_kaya
Some competition in the DRAM space would be nice for the market. i hope the high capacity GDDR and HBM products cheepen soon.

DRAM市场有点竞争对行业也好，希望高容量的GDDR和HBM产品赶紧降价。

aps125
FYI EV maker Nio’s domestic HQ and its manufacturing center is also located in Hefei. Another major Chinese auto manufacturer JAC is based in the same city as well.

顺便说一句，蔚来汽车的国内总部和生产中心也在合肥，另一家中国大车企江淮汽车也在那儿。

ProfessorontheToadstoolC-nh1yz
It would be nice if press or manufacturers dropped this nm bullcrap and just reported component density

要是媒体和厂商别再扯纳米那套鬼话，直接报元件密度就好了。

amistrophy
breaking: Micron and Fujian inhua have settled their cases out of court.

突发新闻：美光和福建晋华达成庭外和解。

donaldlee8249
Just bought a new CXMT DDR5 memory, literally a bit over half the price of sk hynix, performs exactly the same

刚买了根长鑫的DDR5内存，价格刚过SK海力士的一半，性能一模一样。

zackdayne9854
everything is a computer!

万物皆电脑！

robshaw2639
TSMC sued a mainland company and won?

台积电告一家大陆公司还赢了？

BiyekGenz
China Numba Wan??

中国第一？？

danielch6662
They better get out of 4th, because that's just bad luck

他们最好别待在第四了，这运气也太背了。

dieselphiend
Making DRAM is is a bit like printing money.

造DRAM有点像印钱。

LolTollhurst
If you can afford the printer and the updates, and the staff that can make more of both

前提是你买得起“印刷机”和升级件，还有能造这些东西的员工。

tringuyen7519
DRAM is a commodity up until a shortage. Then you can’t get enough. & DRAM designers are rare. Graphics/AI VRAM requires specialized IO to reach GHz speeds.

DRAM在短缺前就是大宗商品，一旦缺了就哪儿都买不到。而且DRAM设计师很稀有，显卡/AI用的显存需要专门的IO才能跑到GHz级速度。

JameBlack
Making anything is a bit like printing money by burning less money.

造什么东西都有点像用更少的钱“印钱”。

needles_balloon
How easy would it be for them to push into the HBM or GDDR space? Are there export restrictions on those types of memory to Huawei for it to be worth making a domestic supply for?

他们切入HBM或者GDDR领域有多容易？这些类型的内存对华为有出口限制吗，值不值得搞国产供应？

andersjjensen
Then they would instantly cut themselves off from all the major architectures. DRAM is purposefully really freaking dumb (to make it cheap to manufacture in bulk) but DRAM memory controllers are ungodly complicated and time consuming to develop. That is why JEDEC publishes memory specs typically 4-5 years before you see product roll-out. There is no way in hell Apple, AMD, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Samsung (well, duh! in that case), IBM, etc, are going to spend 4-5 years develo memory controllers for a proprietary specification and then be at the mercy of a single supplier in exchange. That would be the dumbest move in history even if CXMT managed to come up with wildly faster or lower latency memory.
Intel tried it with RAMBUS RAM, figuring they were big enough to pull the proverbial sled alone... it backfired spectacularly

那他们会立刻被所有主流架构抛弃。DRAM故意做得很“蠢”（这样才能批量便宜生产），但DRAM控制器复杂到离谱，开发超耗时。所以JEDEC通常会在产品推出前4-5年公布内存规格。苹果、AMD、英特尔、英伟达、高通、博通、三星、IBM等等，绝对不可能花4-5年给 proprietary 规格开发控制器，然后被单一供应商拿捏。就算长鑫搞出超快或超低延迟的内存，这也是史上最蠢的操作。英特尔当年试过RAMBUS内存，觉得自己够大可以单干，结果惨不忍睹。

TylerAyyy
Chinese spies, if you can hear me, please flood the SSD market with cheap TB/$

中国间谍们，要是你们能听见，赶紧往SSD市场砸便宜的TB级产品啊！

capdew
America claims coffee makers made in China are spying on you and your cat

美国说中国产咖啡机在监视你和你的猫。

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