View: India needs to choose the economy it wants - Toyota or pakora?

观点：印度应当选择自己想要的经济——丰田还是帕可拉?

By Andy Mukherjee

Narendra Modi says, “Make in India.” Toyota Motor Corp. says, stop treating cars as though they were drugs or alcohol. The Japanese carmaker has a point about the tax structure being unviable for the industry, and Shekar Viswanathan, vice chairman of the India unit, made it forcefully in an interview to Anurag Kotoky of Bloomberg News. However, instead of trying to address the specific concern about the high sin levies on cars, the government turned it into a public relations issue. The minister for heavy industries, who also looks after information and broadcasting, took to Twitter to announce that “the news that Toyota... will stop investing in India is incorrect.”

纳伦德拉·莫迪说，“印度制造。”

丰田说，不要把汽车当作药品或酒。这家日本汽车制造商认为印度的税收制度对汽车行业来说是不可行的。该公司印度业务副董事长谢卡尔•维斯瓦纳坦在接受彭博新闻的阿努拉格•科托基采访时，有力地阐述了这一点。然而，政府并没有试图解决对汽车征收高额税收的具体问题，而是把它变成了一个公共关系问题。重工业部长在推特上宣布，“丰田将停止在印度投资的消息是不对的。”

The additional luxury-tax burden — 1% to 22% depending on the size of the vehicle and engine capacity — is what jacks up the overall levy in the world’s fourth-biggest car market to as much as 50% on some sports utility vehicles.

在印度这个全球第四大汽车市场，额外奢侈品税(取决于汽车的尺寸和发动机容量，税率为1%至22%)使得一些运动型多用途车(SUV)的整体税率高达50%。

Six years of headline management should have been enough for PM Modi’s government. From justifying its bizarre overnight ban on most banknotes in 2016 to defending suspiciously cheerful gross domestic product data and suppressing a not-so-rosy household consumption survey, Team Modi has left no stone unturned when it comes to spng a narrative in which it’s doing everything right. The longer this pretense continues, the higher the risk of India getting stuck in a post-pandemic sub-5% growth rut.

6年来，莫迪政府忙得不可开交。从为2016年突然宣布的“废钞”举动辩护，到为令人怀疑的GDP数据辩护，再到压制不那么乐观的家庭消费调查，莫迪团队不遗余力地编造一个说法，称自己做的一切都是正确的。这种借口持续的时间越长，印度陷入疫情后低于5%的增长率困境的风险就越大。

It’s time to start an honest dialogue with unhappy stakeholders — labor, capital, and subnational governments. Lockdowns are easing even though the coronavirus continues to spread. Workers desperately want jobs to return because there isn’t much of a safety net beyond the family or village. Businesses weren’t investing even before Covid. It’s impossible to cut consumption taxes to stoke demand. India’s fund-starved 29 state governments badly need the sin levies that are earmarked for their exclusive use. Businesses were ho that these, which are in addition to the regular goods and services tax, would expire as planned in 2022. However, because of the hit to collections this year, they may continue well into the future.

是时候与不满意的利益相关者——劳工、资本和地方政府展开真诚的对话了。尽管新冠病毒继续传播，但封锁正在放宽。工人们拼命想要重新找工作，除了家庭和村庄之外，没有什么安全的地方。即使在疫情爆发之前，企业也没有投资。不可能通过削减消费税来刺激需求。印度资金匮乏的29个邦政府迫切需要各种税收。商家们希望，这些除了常规商品和服务税之外的税项将按计划在2022年到期。然而，由于今年受到冲击，这些税目可能会持续到未来。

That isn’t the whole story. Import duties on steel and electronic components may go up, ostensibly to promote Modi’s Make in India campaign, pushing prices for cars still higher. The market will then be even smaller. So what can be done?

这还不是全部。钢铁和电子元件的进口关税可能会上调，表面上是为了推动莫迪的“印度制造”运动，进一步推高汽车价格。届时，市场将会变革更小。那能做些什么呢?

Auto analyst Govind Chellappa has practical suggestions. Even if taxes remain high for now, end the constant tinkering with the rates, regulation and the fuel policy — diesel, petrol or hybrid — and commit to stability for 15 years. “It takes 24 to 36 months to develop a new product and another 12 months to set up the physical infrastructure. If taxes and regulation change every 24 months, how does one decide what to invest in?” Chellappa asks. Similarly, the badly designed goods and services levy needs a one-time overhaul, followed by long-term certainty.

汽车分析师戈文德·切拉帕提出了一些切实可行的建议。即使税收目前仍居高不下，也要结束对税率、监管和燃料政策(柴油、汽油或混动力)的不断修改，并确保15年稳定不变。“开发一种新产品需要24到36个月，建立实体基础设施需要12个月。如果税收和监管制度每24个月就会发生变化，那人们如何决定作何投资?”切拉帕问道。同样，制定不周的商品和服务税需要进行一次性改革，然后是长期确定。

India must break out of this vicious cycle in which taxes are high, consumer demand is low, investment and job creation are constrained, and wage incomes are insufficient to boost purchasing power at the bottom of the pyramid. Taxes are hence exorbitant and have to be collected from a small consuming class that can afford a $23,000 Toyota sedan — and fill it up with highly taxed gasoline that costs three-quarters more than what Americans pay.

印度必须打破这样的恶性循环:高税收、低消费需求、投资和就业机会受限、工资收入不足以提升金字塔底层的购买力。因为税收过高，不得不向一个只能够负担得起一辆2.3万美元的丰田轿车的小型消费阶层征税，所加的汽油还需要支付高税收，油价比美国高出四分之三。

Narendra Modi said in an early 2018 television interview that those earning $3 a day by selling “pakoras” — Indian fritters — should also be counted as employed. That would leave the government off the hook for the absence of new jobs in the formal economy. This false pakora/Toyota equivalence must end. India should enable large companies to grow and create good jobs with social security. When they’re more productive and paid a little better, low-wage workers will be able to afford Made in India shirts and trousers, which, as economist Rathin Roy has noted, are more expensive than imported clothing from Bangladesh and Vietnam.

2018年初，纳伦德拉·莫迪在一次电视采访中表示，那些靠卖“帕可拉”(印度炸蔬菜小吃)每天赚3美元的人也应该被计算在就业人员内。这将使政府摆脱正规经济中缺乏新工作岗位的困境。这种错误的帕可拉/丰田“对等”必须结束。印度应该让大公司发展壮大，创造有社会保障的好工作。当他们的生产率提高、工资提高一点时，低收入工人将能够买得起印度制造的衬衫和裤子。正如经济学家拉辛•罗伊所指出的，印度制造的衬衫和裤子比从孟加拉国和越南进口的服装还要贵。

Ultimately, the Modi government needs to focus on one simple statistic highlighted by Ambit Capital Pvt. and Singapore-based investor Akash Prakash. As much as 40% of the country’s listed nonfinancial firms have revenue of less than $15 million. They’re tiny even by emerging-market standards, and the ratio hasn’t increased at all over the past decade.

最终，莫迪政府需要关注一个由Ambit Capital pvt和新加坡投资者Akash Prakash强调的简单统计数据：在印度上市的非金融企业中，有40%的企业收入不足1500万美元。即使以新兴市场的标准来衡量，这一比例也很小，而且在过去10年里，这一比例根本没有增加。

印度经济时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50868.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

Snehashish Bhattacharjee

It is sad that no one talks about a large population in rural areas of India. Given that freebies are dumped in rural communities it is imperative that there is hardly any money left for middle class who contribute as money multiplier in the economy.With less employment opportunities and falling bank interest rates the impetus to spending is severely curtailed causing the economy to further nosedive. At this juncture a large population instead of giving adividend pulls the economy downwards

悲哀的是，没有人提及印度农村地区有大量人口。农村地区发放大量免费赠品，几乎没留什么钱给中产阶级，这是至关重要的，中产阶级在经济中充当货币乘数。

由于就业机会减少和银行利率下降，消费动力被严重削弱，导致经济进一步下滑。在这个关键时刻，庞大的农村人口不能提供支持，反而拖累经济

Shailendra Sharma

I think India needs an economy which is in between Toyota & Pakora , i.e. the economy serving middle income groups .I agree that Govt should listen to all types of suggestion and do what it thinks is right .

我认为印度需要介于丰田和帕可拉之间的经济，即服务于中等收入群体的经济。我同意政府应该听取各种建议，做其认为正确的事情。

TRUTH TELLER

Taxes are high because poor who eat on the taxes paid by 2.5% of the population is the reason. Reduce the population. 90% of the population cannot buy Toyota but certainly they can buy pakoras. So we need pakora economy and not BMW and Toyota cars unless they are manufactured for export.

税收高是因为穷人靠2.5%人口纳的税过活。印度要减少人口。90%的人买不起丰田汽车，但是他们买得起帕可拉。所以我们需要“帕可拉”经济，而不是宝马和丰田汽车，除非这些汽车是为出口而生产的。

Vatsal Bhandari

The real patriotism is not supporting a political party blindly, but asking questions to the government like why the high tax incidence on petrol, why not tax the billionaires and reduce taxes for middle-class, etc.?

真正的爱国主义不是盲目地支持一个政党，而是向印度政府提出问题，比如为什么对汽油征收高额税，为什么不对亿万富翁征税，为什么不给中产阶级减税等等。

Sheo Nandan Pandey

Could any body deny that the foolhardiness of the govt. in handling issues that the nation confronted now and then In M-I and M-II epoch on all dimensions including playing conch to deal with COVID-19. God save the nation..

有谁能否认莫迪政府在应对所面临的各种问题时的鲁莽，包括在应对疫情时的有勇无谋？神啊，救救这个国家吧

Abeer Raja

Truth is bitter!

现实很残酷！

Diwakar Kukreja

Blaming PM alone is highly unjustified. A country where less than 4% are tax payers and you have to compete with like developed nations than you need money. We are not technology oriented country, we are agricultural based country which solely depends on mercy of mother nature. Education and food is still a dream for 100% . Toyota knows our potential and that is why they are here . They are gaining and to gain more they are pressurizing government.

责怪总理是非常不合理的。印度纳税人口不到4%，为了像发达国家一样和竞争，印度需要钱。我们不是技术型国家，而是农业型国家，完全是靠天吃饭。有书读，有饭吃仍然是所有人的梦想。丰田知道我们的潜力，这就是他们留在印度的原因。他们向政府施压是为了获得更多利益。

Ghansham Ambalkar

Our government has to feed so many Poor's and rohingya etc. so what ever we earn is taken back in in the form of taxes and no many left for the costly Toyota SUV

政府得养活这么多穷人和罗兴亚人，所以我们交的税多，没有多少钱可以用来买昂贵的丰田SUV了

Rakesh Mehrotra

In India due to legacy of the past, land and property make people rich. In most cases, skills and talent are undervalued . High quality education and talent can get us a upper middle class exstence at best.

在印度，由于历史的影响，土地和财产使人们富有。在大多数情况下，技能和天赋被低估了。优质教育和天赋最多能让我们成为中上阶层。

Ghansham Ambalkar

The article is seems bias and with some vested agenda. Industrial environment is dynamic in nature and Toyota has to come up with there strategy. Don't make unnecessary issue. Those who consume pakoda on street never go for Toyota.

这篇文章似乎带有偏见。工业环境本质上是动态的，丰田必须制定相应的战略。不要制造不必要的问题。那些在街上买帕可拉的人不会买丰田。

Suchindranath Aiyer

Indian Governments have not grown up but only grown fat since 1947 and an intolerable burden on India welfare, prosperity and security..

自1947年以来，印度政府并没有成长，只是官员更多了，对印度的福利、繁荣和安全造成了无法忍受的负担。

np

Buyers are also less because there is no enough money in the hands of people.How can one buy Toyota car ?

买家减少是因为人们手中没有足够的钱。没钱怎么买丰田汽车呢?

Sundar L.

pakora, I am my own boss and also give employment to some. Toyata is also needed but not required to sell in large nos and pollute our atmosphere.

卖帕可拉，自己当老板，也可以给一些人提供就业。我们也需要丰田，但不要求大量销售，汽车尾气会污染我们的大气。

Amaresh Nayak

paid article

花钱请人写的文章

SS

What a misleading article. Writer should put full information for readers or he has some vested agenda.Toyota already announced that they will invest more in India.

文章具有误导性。作者应该为读者提供完整的信息，丰田已经宣布将加大对印度的投资。