三泰虎

如果字节跳动要把TikTok出售给一家美国企业,你觉得哪家企业会收购

If ByteDance sells TikTok to an American company, what US company do you think would buy the platform?  What company should own TikTok?

如果字节跳动要把TikTok出售给一家美国企业,你觉得哪家企业会收购TikTok ?

 

 

以下是Quora网友的评论:

Kiok Khng Png

This is not going happening as China has already passed a law last year banning sale of certain companies it deemed of strategic interest. Furthermore, Senate majority leader has so far refused to put the Congress passed bill on the agenda to be debated and voted on.

Even if China decided to let Bytedance sell Tiktok and Senate passed the bill, there is a problem of Bytedance shareholders challenging the forced sale (and thus a fire sale). Keep in mind 60% of Bytedance shareholders are non-Chinese and many are American. They will likely go to court to challenge the bill.

这种情况是不可能发生的,因为中国已经在去年通过了一项法律,禁止出售被中国认定为具有战略利益的企业。此外,参议院多数党领袖目前也拒绝将国会通过的法案提上议程进行辩论和投票。

即使中国同意字节跳动出售TikTok,美国参议院也通过了这项法案,字节跳动的股东也会反对这种强制出售的行为(还是贱卖)。请记住,字节跳动有60%的股东都不是中国人,其中很多是美国人。他们可能会诉诸法院,对该法案提出质疑。

Assuming the sales does happens, one has to go behind the motive of passing this bill to force sell Tiktok to know who are the potential buyers. More than 170 million Americans have downloaded Tiktok. 30% of US teenagers are active users of Tiktok. Unlike their seniors, in particular their grandparents, many do not view Israel favorably. Furthermore, they get their news from social media and not from traditional mass media, which are overwhelming supportive of Israel’s annexation of Palestinian lands and the current invasion of Gaza. A key source of news for these young people is from Tiktok. The ratio of pro-Palestinian videos compare to pro-Israel videos on Tiktok is about 7-to-1. Among social medias like Facebook, instagram, etc, Tiktok and X are the ones that does not censor pro-Palestinian information. To capture the minds of these young people and sway their support to Israel, it is important that Tiktok, which currently is more influential compare to X, tweak their algorithm to enforce such cencorship. The best way to do that is to own the company. This will give an idea of who is likely to buy Tiktok.

就算真的要进行交易,我们也必须了解通过该法案强制出售TikTok的背后动机,了解潜在买家究竟是谁。

如今已有超过1.7亿美国人下载了TikTok的app,30%的美国青少年是TikTok的活跃用户。这些青少年和他们的长辈尤其是祖父母不同,他们中有很多人并不喜欢以色列。

此外,他们了解新闻的途径是社交媒体,而非传统的大众媒体,大众媒体一边倒地支持以色列侵占巴勒斯坦的领土,也为以色列对加沙地区的入侵摇旗呐喊。

美国年轻人的主要新闻来源是TikTok。抖音用户发布的支持巴勒斯坦和以色列的视频数量大约为7:1。

在Facebook、instagram等为首的社交媒体中,只有TikTok和推特不会审核支持巴勒斯坦的内容。

对美国而言,为了给这些年轻人洗脑,说服他们支持以色列,必须让目前比X更具影响力的抖音调整算法,实施相同的审查要求。

要想实现这一点,最好的办法就是买下这家公司。

 

 

 

Alex Jouravlev

I don’t see ByteDance selling. However even if they do, it is much harder than it sounds.

The sudden rise in a number of “anti-Zionists” in US after the October 7 Hamas massacre of Israelis gave food to speculations that TikTok was promoting antisemitic propaganda content to advance China geopolitical interests. Which is what one would expect them to do in light of the Sino-US confrontation. So the demand from US is to sell the whole app, or US operations, including customer data _and_ the algorithm feeding the users the next clip.

The algorithm is what make TikTok tick. It is what makes the users to scroll for hours instead of tossing it away after a few clips.

我不认为字节跳动会出售TikTok。但就算他们真有这个想法,也只能是说起来容易,做起来难。

10月7日哈马斯屠杀以色列人事件发生后,美国国内“反犹太复国主义者”的人数突然激增,人们不禁猜测抖音在推动反犹宣传,并借此推进中国的地缘政治利益。

在中美对峙的背景下,中国会这么做是有可能的。所以美国要求字节跳动出售整个app,或者出售在美国的业务,包括客户数据和为用户推送内容的算法。

这套算法是TikTok获得成功的关键,能让用户持续刷屏好几个小时,而不是刷完几个视频就停下来。

Now, if you are not in software or AI, you possibly think about sale as formal transfer of ownership of an app (a paper singned, copies forwarded to Apple Store and Google Play) and an algorithm on a piece of paper.

In reality, “algorithm” could consist of massive amount of code, filled with patches, a massive data storage, and perhaps a thousand of developers and AI specialists without whom you have no chance of understanding how the whole things work, and where the gremlins are. Gremlins can be in data rather than code, giving disproportionate attention to views of some users. While some other users are given the same high attention as it increases the usage of the app.

现在,如果你不是从事软件或人工智能行业,你可能会认为应用程序的出售是对所有权的正式转让(签署一份文件,再把副本转发给Apple Store和Google Play),并把算法写在纸上进行交接。

在现实中,“算法”可能包含大量的代码,打满了补丁,超大容量的数据存储,可能还包含成千上万的开发人员和AI专家,没有他们,你就不可能理解整个程序的运行方式,也不会知道小鬼们会出现在哪里。它们有可能存在于数据中,而非代码中,对某些用户的评价给予了过多的关注。其他一些用户也可能受到同样的高度关注,因为它增加了应用程序的使用率。

Did you realise those people are in China?

How you think the whole transfer would work?

Facebook already has Reels that is sort-of similar to TikTok. IMHO, the only realistic scenario is Facebook buying the name and customers accounts, and serving stand-alone Reels with complete TikTok look and feel.

你发现这些人都在中国吗?

你觉得整体交易能行得通?

Facebook已经推出了跟TikTok类似的Reels。在我看来,唯一比较现实的就是让Facebook买下TikTok的品牌和客户账户,并把TikTok的界面和操作都套在独立运营的Reels上。

 

 

 

Julu Chan

There is no way ByteDance will sell their business to the US anyway.

First of all, the chinese will not approve it.

Secondly, public opinion in China is seriously opposed to the sale, and ByteDance’s business in China accounts for two-thirds of the entire global business. If it is sold, its business in China will suffer a devastating blow.

字节跳动绝对不可能把业务卖给美国。

首先,中国不会批准。

其次,中国的社会舆论严重反对出售TikTok,字节跳动在中国的业务占其全球业务的三分之二。如果真的出售TikTok,字节跳动在中国的业务将遭受毁灭性打击。

Why is Chinese public opinion opposed to ByteDance selling its business in the United States?

Because this is called ‘强买强卖’(forced buying and selling), it is easy for the Chinese to think of the humiliating history of the British forcing the Chinese to buy their opium after the Opium War. So if ByteDance is forced to sell its business to the United States, it will completely end its business in China.

为什么中国的社会舆论反对字节跳动出售其在美业务?

因为这种行为被称为“强买强卖”,会让中国人联想到英国在鸦片战争后强迫中国人购买鸦片的耻辱历史。因此,如果字节跳动被迫将其业务出售给美国,它在中国的业务也将彻底结束。

1.jpg

 

 

 

William Yeo

ByteDance cannot possibly sell TikTok to an American company. Otherwise, their management will all be jailed. This is because Chinese law prohibits any Chinese company from directly or indirectly handing over user data to the operators of the PRISM network, which is the U.S. government.

In addition, China has several other laws:

字节跳动不可能把TikTok卖给美国企业,否则他们的管理层都将全部入狱。因为中国法律禁止任何中国企业直接或间接地将用户数据交给棱镜网络的运营商,即美国政府。

此外,中国还有另外几部法律:

1. If a Chinese company is maliciously sanctioned by the U.S. government, the chinese will retaliate against other American companies, such as Boeing.

2. If a merchant maliciously conceals quality defects, like Boeing, the purchaser can demand four times the punitive damages.

3. If the U.S. government maliciously infringes on the intellectual property rights of Chinese companies, then the intellectual property rights of American companies in China will no longer be protected by the international intellectual property convention.This also means that Boeing’s suppliers in China could immediately assemble the parts they have on hand into a new airplane.

1. 如果中国企业被美国政府恶意制裁,中国也会对其他美国企业进行制裁,比如波音公司。

2. 如果商家故意隐瞒质量缺陷,如波音公司,采购方可以提出4倍于订单金额的惩罚性赔偿。

3. 如果美国政府恶意侵犯中国企业的知识产权,那么美国企业在中国的知识产权也得不到国际知识产权公约的保护。这也意味着波音在中国的供应商可以立即将他们手头的零部件组装成一架新飞机。

Therefore, once the bill sanctioning ByteDance is passed, ByteDance may not necessarily be finished, but Boeing could very well be.

It seems Biden wants Boeing dead.

因此,一旦制裁字节跳动的法案获得通过,字节跳动倒不一定会完蛋,但波音很可能就没救了。

这样看起来,拜登是想让波音公司破产啊。

 

 

 

Peter Kaye

Forget these hypothetical questions, will never happen, Bytedance has no reason to sell their very successful platform, just because some US politicians say so? Just more delusions of grandeur.

funny thing is I read yesterday where even US politicians are useing it for their campaigns. Very funny. So why on earth would bytedance sell it?

大家都洗洗睡吧,这些假设性的问题永远都不可能发生,字节跳动没有任何理由卖掉TikTok这个非常成功的平台,难道美国几个政客说了算吗?这都是他们的痴心妄想。

而且很有意思的是,我昨天还读到一篇报道,美国政客在自己的竞选活动中也在使用TikTok。实在有趣。所以你们说,字节跳动为什么要出售TikTok呢?

 

 

 

Flyhi Gao

ByteDance will not sell TikTok in the United States because Chinese law does not permit it.

字节跳动不会在美国销售TikTok的,因为中国法律禁止这种行为。

 

 

 

Konstantinos Konstantinides

ByteDance needs to comply (or fight) only for the US-operations part of TikTok. The US can impose rules on how companies operate in the US. Outside of the US, they can do whatever they want.

字节跳动只需让TikTok的美国业务遵从(或对抗)美国的规定即可。美国可以对在美国境内运营的企业念紧箍咒。但在美国境外,这些企业根本不看美国的脸色。

 

 

 

Jay Chan

Do you think ByteDance will sell TikTok to the US in the end?

Definitely possible though that’s against ByteDance’s will.

Think about the current social media market: Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Tiktok, Snapshot … Tiktok is becoming the most valuable. Who wants to sell it if it has such a big market potential?

Whether willing or not, everything is possible with political intervention. The fun part is which US company will get it.

你认为字节跳动会把TikTok卖给美国吗?

这种可能当然存在,不过这违背了字节跳动的意愿。

看看现在的社交媒体市场:Facebook、Instagram、Twitter、抖音、快照……TikTok的市场价值一路攀升。抖音有这么大的市场潜力,谁会愿意出售呢?

无论愿意与否,只要出现政治干预,一切皆有可能。但更有意思的是哪家美国企业能把抖音收入囊中?

 

 

 

Terry Lambert

What major company do you think will buy TikTok, and when?

What makes you think ByteDance doesn’t have any ambitions of becoming a major company, using TikTok as a vehicle to do so?

Why would they sell their unicorn?

你觉得哪个巨头会收购TikTok?何时收购?

是什么让你认为字节跳动没有称霸的野心,不想把TikTok当做实现这一目标的工具?

他们为什么要卖掉自己培养的独角兽呢?

 

 

 

Suvi Sharma

Who is going to acquire the Chinese app TikTok, and why? Is it Twitter or Microsoft?

Last week, Microsoft went up by 5% on rumors of them buying ByteDance's TikTok.

That 5% made Microsoft $75 billion more valuable. If they would buy TikTok's US operations for up to $30 billion (the whole business is reportedly worth $50 billion), they would be literally making $45 billion + getting TikTok for free!

Not a bad deal if you think about it!

谁会收购中国的TikTok,为什么?是推特还是微软?

上周,因为传言称微软收购了字节跳动旗下的TikTok,微软股价应声上涨5%。

这5%的涨幅让微软的市值增加了750亿美元。如果微软以不超过300亿美元的价格收购抖音的美国业务(据报道,TikTok的整体业务价值500亿美元),那么微软就净赚450亿美元以上,等于免费拿下了TikTok

这样想的话,这真的是一笔不错的交易!

 

 

 

Aditya Khurana

Is the USA forcefully acquiring TikTok?

美国是在强行收购TikTok吗?

No country can forcefully do anything like this. After a months-long drama, ByteDance selected Oracle as its "trusted tech partner" in the US earlier this week. The partnership is yet to be announced officially but the details of the deal are now starting to emerge. Oracle will reportedly have a stake in TikTok's global business and not just the US operations. ByteDance, meanwhile, will be the majority shareholder of the entity.

TikTok might move its global headquarters to the US in order to avoid any troubles in the future. American TikTok users' data will stay within the country, sources told the FT.

没有哪个国家可以进行强行收购。在经历了长达数月的闹剧后,字节跳动于本周早些时候选择甲骨文作为其在美国的“值得信赖的技术合作伙伴”。双方的合作尚未正式宣布,但交易细节已开始浮出水面。据报道,甲骨文将持有TikTok全球业务的部分股份,并不仅限于美国业务。与此同时,字节跳动将成为甲骨文的大股东。

TikTok可能会将全球总部迁至美国,避免未来再次招惹麻烦。消息人士告诉英国《金融时报》,美国抖音用户的数据将留在美国。

 

 

 

Ranjana Radhakrishnan

Who will buy TikTok in the USA?

Microsoft has stated that it will buy all rights of tiktok from US and from countries like Canada,Brazil.

谁会在美国购买TikTok

微软表示将购买TikTok在美国以及加拿大、巴西等国的所有版权。

 

三泰虎原创译文,禁止转载!:首页 > 大国 » 如果字节跳动要把TikTok出售给一家美国企业,你觉得哪家企业会收购

()
分享到: