Can China reach US$25,000 per capita GDP by 2030?





Richard Kenneth Eng

In terms of purchasing power parity, China is almost there already: $23,382.

In terms of nominal GDP, China still has some ways to go: $13,721.

IMHO, purchasing power parity is a more meaningful economic measure.








I think China's GDP per capita in nominal US dollars will exceed US$25,000 and reach US$37,000 in 2030.


From 2000 to 2020 (a US dollar cycle), the average annual growth rate of China's real per capita GDP is 9%, and the nominal US dollar growth rate is 12% (from US$951 to US$10,500).

From 2000 to 2010 (the period when the U.S. dollar was weak), the average annual growth rate of China’s real per capita GDP was 11%, while the nominal U.S. dollar rate was 16% (from $951 to $4,500).

From 2010 to 2020 (dollar strength period) China's real per capita GDP growth rate is 7% per year, and the dollar's nominal growth rate is 8% (US$4,500 to US$10,500)




From 2020 to 2040 (a US dollar cycle) China's real per capita GDP annual growth rate Growth will be 7% on average and 10% in dollar terms.

From 2020 to 2030 (the period when the U.S. dollar is weak), the average annual growth rate of China’s real per capita GDP will be 9%, while the U.S. dollar’s nominal growth rate will be 14%. China's per capita GDP will grow from $10,000 to $37,000.

From 2030 to 2040 (the strong dollar period), China's real per capita GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 5%, while the dollar's nominal growth rate will be 6%. China's per capita GDP will grow from 37,000 to 66,000 US dollars.




At present, China's nominal US dollar per capita GDP will increase from US$10,000 in 2020 to US$13,000 in 2022 at an average annual growth rate of 14%.





Vedant Vispute

Experts do expect China’s GDP per capita to reach around $25000 by 2030. (Source- Statista.com)







Yi Zhang

I have no idea.

If dollar hegemony collapses, simple exchange rate fluctuations can accomplish this more quickly.






Omar Othman

In PPP terms yes, and even earlier than that. It stood at 19–20k in 2021. In nominal terms? It depends on geopolitical fluctuations and their spillover on the exchange rates, but if things go as usual, China’s nominal GDP per capita will not reach 25k until 2035 or later.





J. Dashing

In 2030, I expect China’s GDP to be around $23 trillion. Their population will be around 1.433 billion. This will make their GDP per capita $16.6K and they’ll become a developed nation. With these projections, give it another 10 years.





Love Yourself

This is very ambitious for China.

Certainly possible, but that would be very difficult.

China plans to reach $20,000 per capita GDP by 2035; it is on track to reach that by ~2029 and that alone makes China happy.



中国计划到2035年实现人均GDP 2万美元的目标;中国有望在2029年实现这一目标,如果真能实现,中国就心满意足了。




On Hiatus

[I’m assuming that we are using real GDP per capita measured in 2021 dollars.]

China’s 2019 per capita GDP was under $10.3K. China would have to achieve a growth rate of 8.5%/year over 11 years for this to occur. Other than 2021, in which a post-COVID bubble may elevate the Chinese economy above this level, it is not likely to achieve this rate in any other year.

I’d guess that China’s per capita GDP in 2025 will be just under $20K current US dollars. That isn’t a huge numeric difference from your figure, but the required levels of luck and execution to achieve it are actually very substantially higher than what is likely to occur.







Will Thomas

Yes. Even if China’s economic growth slows down a bit, it can still grow from around $15,000 per capita to $25,000 per capita over ten years.

Once China reaches around $25,000 per capita income, growth will likely come harder and harder. Growth slows down as countries become richer because poor countries have many well-known ways to raise their efficiency of production, but richer countries have to invent new ways, which is harder. Also, demographic factors will help slow China’s growth in coming decades.






David Liu

it can, if USD were still global dominant currency and GDP were still metriced by USD…

however, it is more possible that GDP will not be metriced by USD at that time…






Al Sokol

$25 000.00 in China will equal to +/- $100 000.00 in the US. I feel sorry for them.





KokHin Lim


How much will China's nominal per capita GDP reach in 2025?

2022 China’s GDP is a shade below 20 trillion dollars. And U.S. GDP is a little over 25 trillion dollars. It is safe to estimate China will grow 6% per annum while the U.S. will grow at 2% over the coming 3 years. China will grow to 24 trillion while the U.S. will grow to 26.5 trillion based on U.S. dollars.

Nominal GDP really means nothing but chest thum browning points these days. PPP China is well over 50% bigger than the U.S. by 2025. So in real purchasing dollar value China’s PPP is 1.5 times the size of China. But growing roughly 3 times the speed of the U.S. economy.







Nathan James


What do you think about China being number 1 in GDP but number 100 in GDP per capita?What’s there to think? Everything is perfectly fine.

China is still a develo country. It’s nowhere near its peak. There is plenty more room for growth.

China has 1.4 billion people. It takes time to elevate them all into the prosperous middle class. I expect this will be achieved by mid-century.

So, again, what’s the problem?

你怎么看中国GDP全球第一,但人均GDP排名100 ?有什么好看的?一切都很好,没问题。







Roger Parker


Is China ever going to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP?

I think it is important to understand the paradigm of leading nations and followers. By leading, I am not suggesting they are better in some way, it is just a different strategy. Some organizations, whether corporations or nations are dynamic. They invest in new ideas, new technologies, new experiments, new institutional forms, new products, new styles and such. These organizations have lots of change, lots of failure, open mindsets and occasionally awesome successes. They are future and progress focused. Others are intrinsically conservative, waiting for ideas and technologies and institutions to be tested and proven elsewhere.




Over the past four or five hundred years, the dynamic leader has changed with time. Historians focus on the Netherlands as extremely dynamic up until the 18th C or so, when the dynamic leadership shifted to Great Britain followed by a shift around start of the 20th Century to America. This is of course an over-generalization, as lots of places have varying degrees of dynamism, but if you look at places with major technological, financials or economic leadership patterns do emerge. The financial revolutions of the Dutch, the Industrial Revolution of the British, the moon landing and Silicon Valley phenomenon in the US.


Once a new institution or product or technology is created, tested and proven, other places which are less dynamic can copy it. This creates a process where catch up is easier than the discovery itself. You then see convergence, where non leading economies adopt the technologies and sciences of the leaders. Being a follower is efficient and less risky.


As China approaches the frontier of technology and prosperity, it will need to shift from a catch up strategy to a dynamic leadership strategy. This is a completely different skill, and is one which historically seems to be associated with cultures with a strong emphasis on individuality, change, risk taking, novelty, future orientation and progress. This conversion isn't impossible, but on the other hand, there is nothing in being a good follower or adopter of ideas created elsewhere that prepares one to be a good leader.


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