三泰虎

以前人均GDP是中国的10倍,墨西哥和巴西哪里出了问题,现在居然落后中国了

In 1990, Mexco and Brazil had GDP per capita nearly 10 times of China. What went wrong with Mexco and Brazil that they are now behind?

1990年,墨西哥和巴西的人均GDP接近中国的10倍。墨西哥和巴西是哪里出了问题,导致现在落后了?

 

 

以下是Quora网友的评论:

Roy Marchand

It is not so much what went wrong with Brazil and Mexco as is about what China did right.

The Chinese leadership wanted to make things better for their people.

They study successful countries to see how the got there. They discovered that their best hope was capitalism the fashioned a type of capitalism that would work with some compromises within their political if the followed the American capitalist model.

与其追究巴西和墨西哥做错了什么,不如说说中国做对了什么。

中国的领导人希望让中国人民过上更好的生活。

他们分析成功的国家,研究这些国家是如何取得成功的。他们发现最有希望的是zb主义,他们创造了一种zb主义,根据自己的特色对其做了一些调整。

They invested in infrastructure and education for the long term. They wrote laws that attracted investment and laws that favored Chinese enterprises.

Then they executed a plan designed to generate export revenue, reward manufacturing with good profits, and raise the standard of living for their people.

中国长期投资于基础设施和教育,制定了吸引外资以及有利于中国企业的法律。

中国还实施了一项计划,创造出口收入,奖励利润较高的制造业,并提高人民的生活水平。

The executed the American game plan to perfection to become the second biggest economy in the world on their way to number 1.

They still have some problems to solve but the future looks bright.

中国完美地利用美国的游戏规则成为世界第二大经济体,并朝着世界第一的方向继续前进。

中国仍然有一些问题要解决,但中国拥有光明的前途。

 

 

 

Ming Mo

Let me tell you the truth.

It's very simple.

Because Mexco and Brazil are too close to the United States.

让我来告诉你真相吧。

这很简单。

因为墨西哥和巴西离美国太近了。

You produce, you sell, and then the Americans take the profits. Don't get me wrong, I am not mainly referring to equity. Not mainly referring that a large number of senior positions in local companies are held by foreigners. But in the global value chain, a country is always in a situation of selling raw materials. Thousands of ore and wood can reach a Boeing plane. This is exploitation! Who is stop you from climbing up? Poor domestic governance and foreign capital power.

你们生产,你们销售,可是美国人拿走了利润的大头。我主要说的可不是股权,也不是主要意指当地企业的高级职位往往由外国人担任。但在全球价值链中,一个国家始终处于销售原材料的初级阶段。成千上万的矿石和木材才能换来一架波音飞机。这简直就是剥削!谁在阻止你们往供应链上游提升?正是糟糕的国家治理能力和境外资本势力。

The government does not have sufficient funds to develop education and infrastructure. Multi-party has become a tool for foreign intervention. High-ranking officials and politicians obtain large amounts of money from foreign companies.

Then why not refuse? Because the United States will subvert the government or bomb your city until you accept it.

Long-term economic stagnation is much better than being bombed. Isn't it?

政府没有足够的资金来发展教育和基础设施。多党制已沦为境外势力干预本国政治的工具。(墨西哥和巴西)高层官员和政治人士从外国企业那里获得了大量资金。

那为什么不拒绝呢?因为美国会推番他国政府、轰炸城市,直到你妥协。

长期的经济停滞比遭受轰炸要好得多。不是吗?

 

 

 

Johnson Ho

It’s easy. Because they are too far to heaven, and to close to American. The only efficient thing they can supply to the world(actually, American is the world to them in the last 20+ years), are drugs. In other area, they can not fight with the American industrys, what else can they do?

很简单。因为他们离天堂太远了,又离美国太近了。他们能提供给世界的唯一东西(实际上,在过去的20多年里,美国是他们的全世界)就是毒品。在其他领域,他们完全无力和美国工业抗衡,他们还能做些什么呢?

 

 

 

Manuel García

Related

Is Mexco more developed than China for always having a higher GDP per capita (nominal) until 2019? Why do many people view Mexco as a poor country?

This is because, you know, Mexco is a poor country.

直到2019年,墨西哥的名义人均GDP都高过中国,这意味着墨西哥比中国更发达吗?为什么很多人都把墨西哥看做一个贫穷的国家?

这是因为,你知道的,墨西哥确实是一个贫穷的国家。

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China is also seen as a poor country, but the difference with Mexco is that China is making poor people become middle class while Mexco has stopped doing that long time ago. So, China easily can be more attractive now than Mexco.

中国也被视为一个贫穷的国家,但与墨西哥不同的是,中国努力让穷人跻身中产阶级,而墨西哥很久以前就放弃了。所以现在中国轻而易举地就比墨西哥更具吸引力。

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Imagine that Mexco was like Detroit, it was growing very quickly and it was becoming very prosperous. But, bad government and wrong choices halted the growing of such country and the poverty has increased. Mexco has been under bad governments more that 50 years in a row, this has a heavy toll in its populace.

想象一下,墨西哥曾经就像底特律一样,发展得非常快,发展得非常繁华。但是,糟糕的政府和错误的决定干扰了这个国家的发展,国家越来越穷。墨西哥已经连续50多年处在糟糕的政府统治之下,民众遭受了沉重的损失。

Yes, Mexco has a good internal market and a purchase power somewhat attractive, but what makes Mexco a poor country is the difference between rich and poor people, this is abismal. You can go to a very nice mall with a lot of foreign and expensive stores and restaurants, but when you go out, you will see poor people, mostly indigenous women with their children selling something at the street or just asking money. Most of them were abducted and forced to ask money for somebody that may have political power.

是的,墨西哥拥有出色的国内市场和购买力,但让墨西哥沦为贫穷国家的是富人和穷人之间的收入鸿沟。墨西哥很多购物中心里设有外国高档商店和餐馆,但你走出大门就会看到穷人,主要是妇女带着孩子在街上叫卖东西或伸手要钱。他们大多数是被诱拐挟持的,被迫向可能拥有政治权力的人要钱。

Mexco is a very corrupted country and that makes it a poor one, with no clear way for its future.

墨西哥是一个非常腐败的国家,墨西哥因此沦为一个贫穷的国家,前途惨淡。

 

 

 

Max Jeng

Related

When will China catch up with Turkey, Mexco, Brazil, Argentina, Malaysia, Poland and Chile in GDP per capita?

中国何时才能在人均GDP方面赶上土耳其、墨西哥、巴西、阿根廷、马来西亚、波兰和智利?

Year 2020, China still needs to catch up with Chile and Poland, but already surpassed the other 5 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Malaysia, Mexco, and Turkey ).

Here I show you the short data of 2020 by International Monetray Fund:

2020年中国还落后于智利和波兰,但已经超过了其他5个国家(阿根廷、巴西、马来西亚、墨西哥和土耳其)。

下面是国际货币基金组织2020年公布的简短数据:

3.jpg 

The question is only about GDP, so I only answered GDP above, but this is actually a question with a trap. Because there are many factors that affect GDP, and it cannot be used to represent the real good or bad life of the people in that country.

这个问题只问及GDP,所以我上面也只回答了GDP的内容,但这其实是一个带有陷阱的问题。因为影响GDP的因素很多,不能用GDP来代表那个国家人民生活的真实好坏。

For the quality of life of the average civilian, there are many more, three of which are important for security/education/health care.

对于普通平民的生活质量来说,影响的因素就更多了,其中有三个因素对安全/教育/医疗保健很重要。

Mr. Lee Kuan Yew once said, "The litmus test of the merits of a political system is whether it can improve the lives of the majority of people in that society."

李光耀先生说过:“一种政治制度优劣的试金石,是看它能否改善社会中大多数人的生活。”

Brazil and Mexco as representatives, these two countries in the develo world is actually considered good countries, have their own industrial system, 2020 GDP per capita can get more than 6000-8000 U.S. dollars, but still gang rampant, killing people like a mob.

以巴西和墨西哥为代表,这两个国家被视为发展中国家中的好国家,有自己的工业体系,2020年人均GDP达6000-8000多美元,但目前依然帮派猖獗,杀人如麻。

In countries with $10,000 per capita, China's security, education, and health care three is simply an oddity, such as Malaysia, Mexco, and Costa Rica, which have similar GDP per capita with China, but the quality of life and safety of ordinary Chinese people is far better than these countries.

在人均GDP为1万美元的国家中,中国在安全、教育、医疗三个方面都是非常另类的存在,马来西亚、墨西哥、哥斯达黎加等国的人均GDP与中国差不多,但普通中国人的生活质量和安全水平远远好于这些国家。

Why is China significantly better governed with the same GDP per capita? Because China has not fallen into the trap of contemporary civilization.

Okay, let's go back to the GDP issue.

Now, two countries remain to be surpassed. When and will China overtake Chile and Poland? I don't know.

为什么在人均GDP相同的情况下,中国的治理明显更好呢?因为中国没有落入当代文明的陷阱。

好的,让我们回到GDP的问题上。

现在,还有两个国家领先中国。中国什么时候能超过智利和波兰?我不知道。

When a country enters the middle developed countries, before it enters the middle developed countries, it is possible to accumulate a large amount of wealth by simple scale expansion due to the low cost of industrial production and operation, relying on labor-intensive industries. Such industrial workers require little quality and can be achieved with a large supply of labor. This was also the case in Japan back then, with Japanese home appliances and the familiar "There's a road, there's a Toyota" advertisement. China is no exception, the world is made in China, but mainly concentrated in the low-end goods. And in the value chain, the technology content is lower than the goods themselves.

一个国家进入中等发达国家前,因为工业生产经营成本低,依靠劳动密集型产业,通过简单的规模扩张就有可能积累大量财富。这种产业工人不需要拥有很高的素质,通过大规模的劳动力就能实现。日本当年也是如此,于是有了日本的家用电器和大家耳熟能详的“有路必有丰田车”的广告。中国也不例外,中国是世界工厂,但主要集中在低端商品上。而在价值链中,技术的含量低于商品本身。

But after entering developed countries such as China, the original labor-intensive industries, due to rising costs, were forced to move to regions with less developed economies and lower labor prices. The model of accumulating wealth through labor-intensive industries has gradually become unworkable. The key to China's real estate being able to create such high prices later on is that people have money (wealth), and this wealth is accumulated through labor-intensive industries, the hard-earned money of all the people. The country also concentrates social wealth through real estate, which is "concentrated power to do great things".

但当一个国家想中国一样跻身发达国家之列后,因为成本上升,原有的劳动密集型产业被迫向经济欠发达、劳动力价格较低的地区转移。通过劳动密集型产业积累财富的模式逐渐行不通了。中国房地产后来之所以能够卖上这么高的价格,就是因为人们有钱了(拥有了财富),这些财富是通过劳动密集型产业积累起来的,是所有人的血汗钱。国家还通过房地产集中社会财富,正所谓“集中力量办大事”。

After entering the middle developed countries, labor-intensive industries can no longer take the responsibility of creating wealth for society and pushing it forward rapidly. This responsibility must be assumed by capital- and technology-intensive enterprises, that is, the middle and high-end industries after industrial upgrading.

The main key for China now is to complete the economic and technological upgrading of the industry. After comparing the government system/efficiency/nationality, and what great goods China had done, I predict a good chance that day will come.

跻身中等发达国家之列后,劳动密集型产业已无力继续承担为社会创造财富、推动社会快速发展的责任。这一责任必须转由资本和技术密集型企业来承担,也就是进行产业升级后的中高端产业。

中国现在的主要任务是完成产业的经济和技术升级。在对比了政府体制、效率和民族等因素,以及中国已经制造出来的优秀商品后,我预感这一天很有可能会到来。

 

 

 

Jose Luis Malaquias

Not really a problem with Mexco and Brazil, which approxmately maintained or even increased their level of prosperity. It was China, instead, that grew enormously, at a historically unprecedented level for several dozens of years.

对墨西哥和巴西来说,这并不是一个真正的问题,它们几乎保持甚至提高了国家的繁荣水平。主要是因为中国在近几十年内,以前所未有的标准实现了惊人增长。

 

 

 

Philip Rabe

Funny you assumed Mexco and Brazil fell behind. You didn’t imagine that China simply zoomed ahead?

你居然说墨西哥和巴西落后,太搞笑了吧。你难道不知道中国在高速发展吗?

 

 

Jose Alejandro

In Mexco they are not allowed to build bycicles, air conditions neither motocycles trucks cars, why? Because back in the 1950 s or there abouts the American companies said we can build them for Mexco cheper that Mexco can manufacture them and I believe Mexco signed an agreement I believe for a hundred years that they )Mexco) will not develop their industry

墨西哥不得制造自行车,空调,摩托车,卡车和汽车,为什么呢?因为20世纪50年代,美国公司说他们可以为墨西哥制造更便宜的商品(墨西哥原本自己也能制造的),墨西哥应该签署过某项协议,可能期限是一百年,在此期间墨西哥不会发展自己的工业。

I say that because at that time I was in the 5th grade in Mexco and it was a big push by the teacher telling us to use our brain and develop and or invent the Mexcan industry.

因为当时我在墨西哥上五年级,老师鼓励我们动脑筋发明创造,发展墨西哥的工业。

I do not know anout Brazil i heard they developed their own computer and programs also I heard that they developef their own car sorry that they did not developed the Brazilian industry to the American level.

我不了解巴西,我听说他们开发了自己的计算机和程序,我还听说他们开发了自己的汽车,很遗憾他们没有把巴西的工业发展到美国的水平。

 

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