India's population to overtake China – what does this mean for the world?



India is expected to surpass China as the world's most populous nation in 2023. Both countries have more than 1.4 billion people, but where India's population is relatively young, compared to the rest of the world, China's birth rate is in decline and its population is getting older.


What does this mean for India?


By 2047, 1 in 5 people working in the world will be from India, according to India's Century, a report charting a roadmap for India's future, by McKinsey & Company and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry.


Alok Khirsagar, India's Century co-author, highlights the importance of leveraging on India's digital infrastructure to generate jobs for India's young population.


"It's very important that we're able to use technology to distribute manufacturing services into smaller towns and smaller cities, and not as dependent on the large cities to drive growth," he said to CNBC.


He predicts that agriculture, education, logistics, transport, food and small consumer goods are industries that India will provide services for on a global scale.


How will India's economy benefit?


Manufacturing remains a key industry for India, with companies looking to diversify production away from China due to worker disruptions in Chinese supply chains.


The supply chains of global brands such as Samsung, Apple, Oppo, Vivo, iaomi and Lenovo are also moving to India, Antara Ghosal Singh, an analyst from Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation told CNBC.

印度智库观察者研究基金会的分析师Antara Ghosal Singh告诉CNBC,三星、苹果、Oppo、Vivo、小米和联想等全球品牌的供应链也在向印度转移。



Hayk Karapetyan

As an Armenian, it's inspiring to see the remarkable economic growth that India has achieved in recent years. With a population of over 1.4 billion people, India's economy has become one of the fastest-growing in the world. It's truly remarkable to see how India has leveraged its strengths in sectors like technology, agriculture, and manufacturing to drive growth and create new opportunities for its citizens. Congratulations to India on this impressive achievement!







As an Indian I think not everything is that simple. Factoring into account AI, global economy, trends against globalisation. It is frankly hard to predict, anyone saying otherwise is making shots in the air. All we can do is keep our head down and continue to grind.



Pratik Patil

As an Indian, I am excited for India's future and working towards making it wonderful.




As an Indian, I am proud to see my country flourishing.




China is glad to hand over the most populous title to India.  China is going through and transitioning to modern high tech society, hard to fill 1.4 billion population with jobs and keep them well fed is another issue.  With modern society heading towards 4th industrialization and A.I implementation... less is more.





John F

The economic development model has silently shifted from "quantity" to "quality" starting 2020 as AI emerged to rewrite the concept of "Productivity" in human history. Unfortunately India has just caught the tail of "mass human manufacturing" that lifted China up during the past 2 decades, cheap labor no longer equals to large scale of job creation as many of these jobs will be replaced by robots in next decade,  India's population could actually become a burden for its development going forward...






As a Chinese, this is the best news I have heard. Congratulations on India becoming the world's most populous country.




It's impressive to see India become the fastest growing economy. But I am not particularly happy about us leading the population numbers! The goal should be to become as efficient as possible. With rising population, GDP per capita should also increase exponentially. Lots of comparison being made to China, but what China has been able to achieve in a short span of 20 years is truly remarkable. For India to grow at that pace and build high quality infrastructure everywhere in the country will be a huge challenge by 2047. But I am hopeful and positive, as long we continue to grow and improve in every aspect we will be in top 3 very soon. Exciting times ahead for sure!



Ankit Tiwari

India's growing population can be a demographic advantage or can be demographic disaster ! .... We need to jeep growing and creating all kinds of jobs .... This is hoing to be very hard as the world now is shifting more and more towards automisation ! .... I don't know how India is going to achieve that but we need to do it and fast ! .... We need an annual growth rate of atleaet 9 to 10 percent in order to achieve that ! .... It is going to be tricky ! ....





Ekam Sat

India has an interesting advantage given its uneven socioeconomic development due to historic reasons. It will keep gaining from successive waves of - rather than rushed - development over several decades into the future. If the government can provide basic healthcare and education to the poorer sections of society, then they'll keep ensuring cheap labor and relatively manageable levels of consumption. And thereby limiting pollution, greenhouse gas emission, environmental degradation, etc. However, if the government chooses instead to adopt a populist policy towards the poor, and keep them thus for votes, then it might be a different story.





ivan cai

I can't phantom what benefits does having the biggest population brings. On aggregation it might make the country richer and stronger, but the reality for individuals are very different and contrary. With AI and Robotic revolutiona taking a huge hold in society,  I can see the huge under educated population will see their future becoming more uncertain as they are being automated, the use of smart farming systems will make the poor rural even poorer.




India's population is definitely larger than China, but the numbers for both of them are less than 1.4 billion. India has not had a census since 2011, and everyone believes that China quoted larger numbers in 2020 than in reality.



Erik Di

Large young population is meaningless when it comes to ChatGPT.




I believe the two countries can benefit from each other.




Falling population in China is NOT a bad thing. 1 generation has worked and built everything for the next. It doesn't matter if economy shrinks a bit it will only mean better standard of living in future.



Sandesh Rawat

I think INDIA is more dependable when it comes to show faith but what INDIA need is proper skill upgradation which only comes when FDI will continue to pour from developed nations again in our  growth western developed nation will play a major role so growth with hand in hand will be great to go



Mountain climber

the decrease in population in China is negligible, which can easily covered with Technology..There are many companies which are automatic, drones, robots, AI and some other things can fill this gap easily..China has well developed infrastructure, technological advanced, manufacturing hub etc, so well ahead of India in all fields.



Vasuki Nagabhushan

India should rise by its strength, not China's weakness.



V K Gupta

Falling and aging populations are the side effects of increasing prosperity. China is a perfect example. When society becomes more aspirational more female workers enter the workforce with the resultant reluctance to have large families.




When Chinas current work force when they retire, there will be smaller number of ppl who will have to take care of this larger aging population. Which could will affect the economy growth. For India, even though it got younger population I dunno how much quality education will be achieved by this young ppl. If you don’t have skills set you become a burden for your economy. But still Indias problem is not that complicated than Chinas problem. This less population also means China in the future will have trouble managing a big geographic area.







Vijay Mujumdar

China experts hem & haw about population growth declining in that country. They make dire predications about difficulties China will face due to an aging population. All this is true but a lesser evil than a rapidly growing population as in India. Gallo population of India is an environmental threat & a threat to the world order. It’s landmass, water resources, food growing capacity can’t cope with 1.4 billion people. Chinese leaders who enforced one child policy were wise, they defused population bomb in time. Unfortunately,strutting Indian politicians have no qualms about the misery burgeoning population brings to this country. At this level there is no demographic dividend, only certain demographic destruction.








Population is double edged sword



Lord Lee

Large population is not a blessing, it’s a curse. Especially now we are entering the AI age, where jobs will be hard to come by. China’s birth rate is lower than that of almost all countries and China’s population is declining at the right time. I do wish the Indians have more prosperous lives.



Fact Analyser

Quality matters not the quantity


三泰虎原创译文,禁止转载!:首页 > 印度看中国 » 印度人口将超过中国,这对全世界意味着什么