三泰虎

巴基斯坦治国失败论

Failure of governance

巴基斯坦治国失败论

INDIA, a large, imperfect de acy with its many ethnolinguistic and re gious groups, separatist forces, occupied territories, etc, is certainly not easier to govern than Pakistan. Up until the 1980s, Pakistan was ahead of India in most economic indicators. Then, in the early 1990s, India dismantled its licence raj and shot past Pakistan.

Today, its annual foreign direct investment is 40 times more than that of Pakistan. Its central bank reserves are over $580 billion; ours are $8bn. It is now well ahead of Pakistan in most human development indicators.

印度,一个庞大的,并不完美的国家,有着众多民族语言和宗教团体,分裂势力,领土被占等问题,并不比巴基斯坦更易管理。在20世纪80年代前,巴基斯坦在大多数经济指标上都领先于印度。但上世纪90年代初开始,印度废除了许可证制度,开始反超巴基斯坦。

如今,印度每年的外商直接投资是巴基斯坦的40倍。印度的中央银行储备超过5800亿美元,而我们只有80亿美元。在大多数人类发展指标上,印度都远远领先于巴基斯坦了。

Pakistan’s per capita income is below every country in South Asia except Nepal, and below even the average of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In human development indicators such as education, infant mortality, etc, we do even worse.

We often have a debate in Pakistan about whether we should have presi ntial or parliamentary de acy , or even a military dic ship. The problem isn’t the type of go nment we have. The problem is that governance in Pakistan is just ineffective: in 75 years, our go nments haven’t been able to deliver economic growth, security of life or property, education or health, or even clean drinking water. The hard truth is that our go nments haven’t been able to solve any major problems facing Pakistan.

巴基斯坦的人均收入低于除尼泊尔以外的所有南亚国家,甚至低于撒哈拉以南非洲国家的平均水平。在教育、婴儿死亡率等人类发展指标方面,我们的表现更糟。

我们常为应该实行总统制还是议会民 主制,甚至军事而争论不休。但问题不在于我们拥有什么样的政府。问题在于巴基斯坦的国家治理水平太差:75年来,我们的政府未能实现经济增长、无法保障民众生命安全和财产安全、没能提供教育或卫生,甚至清洁的饮用水等民生服务。残酷的事实是,我们的政府对巴基斯坦面临的所有重大问题都束手无策。

All countries have problems but successful nations resolve them. Our go nments only put off resolving problems and, in the process, exacerbate them. From population planning to illiteracy to extremism to budget and trade deficits to local autonomy to privatisation to growth to income disparity — our go nments have been unable to fix any issue.

Take, for instance, the circular de t. This arose during Gen Musharraf’s re gie and was around Rs25bn. It grew to Rs500bn under PPP, Rs1,100bn under the PMLN and Rs2,500bn under the PTI. No go nment has been able to fix the issue, as none has had the time, will or competence required to resolve it. As a result, the issue has become more intractable over time.

所有国家都会遇到问题,但成功的国家有能力解决问题。我们的政府只是推迟解决问题,在这个过程中,问题一步步加剧。从人口计划到文盲、到极端主义、到预算和贸易赤字、到地方自治、到私有化、到经济增长、到收入差距——我们的政府始终无法解决任何问题。

以循环债务为例。这笔债务发生在穆沙拉夫将军执政期间,规模约为250亿卢比。在人民党政府期间,这一金额增至5000亿卢比,在联盟执政期间增至1.1万亿卢比,在正义运动党政府任内又增至2.5万亿卢比。没有一个政府能够解决这个问题,因为没有一个政府有时间、有意愿或有能力来解决这个问题。因此,随着时间的推移,这个问题越来越棘手。

When a country rapidly increases its income, it is the vast majority of the people who benefit. When Japan, Korea and China quadrupled their incomes in a couple of decades, it was the poor who transitioned to the middle class. Of course, the rich got richer, but it is the vast working class that got the most benefits. But no country can grow without effective governance and savvy economic policy, and in this we have always failed.

Pakistan has one of the fastest population growth rates globally and we add about 5.5 million people every year. Yet no go nment, federal or provincial, has been able or willing to do anything about it. Population control doesn’t require a lot of money. It only requires resolve and competence. But this has been lacking.

Consider security in Pakistan. Ours is a crime-ridden society where no one, especially women, feels safe. Foreign airlines avoid coming to Pakistan because they don’t want their crews staying here overnight, particularly in Karachi. Foreign buyers don’t like visiting Pakistan, and foreign firms neither invest here in factories nor open buying houses.

当一个国家的收入迅速增加时,受益的是多数国民。当日本、韩国和中国的收入在几十年内翻了两番时,穷人跃升为中产阶级。当然,富人也变得更富有,但受益最大的是广大的工人阶级。但是,如果没有高效的治理和明智的经济决策,任何国家都无法发展,而在这方面我们一直失败。

巴基斯坦是全球人口增长最快的国家之一,每年新增约550万人。但无论是联邦政府还是省政府,都没有能力也不愿意采取措施。控制人口并不需要很多钱,需要的就是决心和能力。但我们没有决心。

至于巴基斯坦的安全问题,我们是一个犯罪猖獗的社会,人们缺乏安全感,尤其是女性。外国航空公司都不愿意飞往巴基斯坦,因为他们不想让机组人员在这里过夜,尤其是在卡拉奇。外国买家不愿意来巴基斯坦做生意,外国公司既不来这里投资建厂,也不来购房。

This obviously hurts our exports. We get no tourists coming here either. How can a country prosper where no foreigner feels safe? We have experienced extremism, te rorm and crime since the 1990s, and are ‘used to’ living with danger and an ineffective police and security apparatus.

What do Pakistanis think of our go nments? In a PIDE survey, 40pc Pakistanis want to leave Pakistan. Look at how Pakistan is faring on various human development indices, and you cannot but conclude that Pakistan is one of the worst-governed countries in the world. It’s time we wake up to this reality.

这显然有损我们的出口。我们也吸引不来游客。一个让外国人觉得不安全的国家如何繁荣发展?自20世纪90年代以来,我们经历了极端主义、恐 怖主义和犯罪肆虐,已经被迫“习惯于”生活在危险之中,警察和安全机构毫无作为。

巴基斯坦人怎么看待我们的政府?民意调查显示,40%的巴基斯坦人想要离开巴基斯坦。看看巴基斯坦在人类发展指数上的表现,你只能得出这样的结论:巴基斯坦是世界上治理水平最糟糕的国家之一。我们是时候认清这个现实了。

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以下是巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论:

sasimann

At last an author who has made a correct judgement of the situation in Pakistan.

最后,作者对巴基斯坦的形势做出了正确的判断。

 

 

Samit

Bravo. First step to solving a problem is accepting the problems.

赞。解决问题的第一步是接受问题。

 

 

Cavalier

Very well written , atleast the writer has correctly pointed out all the major problems in front of the country. The most serious are population and education. Time is running out if no action is taken ag inst them now.

写得很好,至少作者正确地指出了国家面临的主要问题。最严重的问题是人口和教育。如果现在再不采取行动,就没时间了。

 

 

John

This article is an eye opener for certain intellects who quite frequently take pot shots at India's poverty.

这篇文章让某些经常抨击印度贫困现象的知识分子大开眼界。

 

 

KJ

The 40% of Pakistanis who want to leave Pakistan, many of them would be very happy to migrate to India.

40%的巴基斯坦人想要离开巴基斯坦,他们中有许多人很乐意移民到印度。

 

 

Musa

Great article! Such wise people but hardly paid attention. 40% prefer leaving country but as along as they are there, prefer re gious fervor!! Without people's support, society cant be radicalized to this extent.

好文章!作者很有智慧,但很少人关注他。40%的人宁愿离开这个国家,但只要他们没走,他们就会选择宗教狂热!!没有人民的支持,社会不可能激进到这种程度。

 

 

KJ

If Pakistanis are not going to wake up, after reading this article, they never will.

如果巴基斯坦人看完这篇文章还不醒悟,那他们永远也不会醒悟。

 

 

Constantine

Pakistan is controlled by the army and mullahs

巴基斯坦是军队控制的。

 

 

Aziz Ahmed

We have not learned anything from our past. Because there is no will.

我们没有从过去吸取任何教训。因为没有这个想法。

 

 

Mohd Khan

Pakistan everything revolves around Kashmir…. The day it gives up Kashmir, it will be able to con trate on the well being of its people and it’s economy

巴基斯坦的一切都围绕着克什米尔....当它放弃克什米尔的那一天,它才能专注于其人民的福祉和经济发展。

 

 

avtar

Pakistan leadership has lacked vision. The Mus m League leaders were never put in jail. Nehu, Gandhi, Azad, Prasad, and other Congress leaders spent time in jail and had time to reflect on what kind of country they would like to have.

巴基斯坦领导层缺乏远见。MSL联盟的领导人从未被关进监狱过。尼胡、甘地、阿扎德、普拉萨德和其他国大党领导人都在监狱里度过了一段时间,有时间思考他们想要一个什么样的国家。

 

 

Tanvir Ahmed

Nothing good comes out of hatred. But that is exactly what Pakistan is - in every sense an anti-thesis of its arch-nemesis, India. Unless it comes to terms with this illogical, dogma-driven hatred, there is no hope for rational policy making.

仇恨不会带来任何好处。但这正是巴基斯坦——什么事都要站在宿敌印度的对立面。除非它放下这种不合逻辑的、由教条驱动的仇恨,否则理性的政策制定是没有希望的。

 

 

g

Brilliant analysis. I would like to add that Pakistan is now the most ridiculous country in the world.

分析得很好。我想补充一点,巴基斯坦现在是世界上最荒诞的国家。

 

 

Virgo

An eye-opener and food for thought.

令人大开眼界,发人深省。

 

 

Hrm

Failed state. With ill intent towards India as the cornerstone of its national policy, what can one expect? Prosperity? Only ruin. What people have been predicting for decades is now coming true.

失败的国家。将对印度的仇恨作为国家政策基石,这个国家还有希望?还妄想发展?等待他们的只有毁灭。人们几十年来的预测现在一步步成为现实。

 

 

Tamza

No mention of the magnitude of the military spending. Japan and Korea almost ZERO.

没有提到军事开支的规模。日本和韩国在这方面的开支几乎为零。

 

 

Curious

Dear Former Finance Minister,

Are both India and Bangladesh economies documented?

If their economies are documented, then how did they do it?

尊敬的前财政部长:

印度和孟加拉国的经济都有记录吗?

如果他们的经济记录在案,那么他们是如何做到的?

 

 

Ghani

Very brave article. Acknowledgement of truth is first step to change.

好文章!承认真相是改变的第一步。

 

 

Shan ul Haq

Of course the population growth has not helped ; but would you dare to compare the defence expenditures  of both Bangladesh and Pakistanin in  last many years. While we wasted our resources  on nonproductive fields ,Bangladesh used the same  resources on education,  health and improving infrastructure which has helped their economic growth.

人口增长当然没有帮助;但你敢比较孟加拉国和巴基斯坦过去几年的国防开支吗?我们把资源浪费在非生产性领域,但孟加拉国却把同样的资源投入到教育、卫生和基础设施,促进了经济增长。

 

 

RationalBabu

Yet no mention of the elephant in the room - the entrenched re gious dogma which seems to take priority over everything!

有一个显而易见的问题没有提及——根深蒂固的宗教教义,它似乎凌驾于一切问题之上!

 

 

S

Pakistanis are ungovernable because everyone thinks they are better and purer and holier than others

巴基斯坦人是难以管理的,每个人都认为他们比其他人更好、更纯洁、更神圣。

 

 

al

Pakistan always had borrowed growth. Americans and Arabs used to pump in Money, because of Russia aggression. Americans left Afghanistan and the Pakistan economy started facing issues....

巴基斯坦一直依靠借贷增长。由于俄罗斯的侵略,美国人和阿拉伯人过去一直大量为巴基斯坦注资。美国人离开了阿富汗,巴基斯坦经济开始面临问题....

 

 

Constantine

There are several realities Pakistan needs to wake up to. Like what is the purpose of this nation.

巴基斯坦需要认清几个现实。比如这个国家的目的是什么。

 

 

Qr Ahmed

To end the bad governance in the country we need a revo tionary leader and that leader is nowhere.

为了结束这个国家的糟糕治理,我们需要一个革命性的领导人,但这个领导人难觅踪影。

 

 

Ahmed

Pakistan needs someone strong like Modi to fix our problems. India is lucky to have got Modi.

巴基斯坦需要莫迪这样的强大的领导人来解决我们的问题。印度有莫迪是幸运的。

 

 

Rahim Ullah (GB)

respected sir it is you who can change the shambling sy em, or let it be the way, or let other new competent people bring a change in our flawed sy em.

向您致敬。您可以改变这个摇摇欲坠的体 制,或者让它继续,或者让其他有能力的新人改变我们有缺陷的体 制。

 

 

ABD

You also contributed in making Pakistan worse governed country during your tenure.

在你的任期内,你也出了一份力,让巴基斯坦治理得更糟糕了。

 

 

TruthIsBitter

Rare honest and brave introspective article. Problem with Pakistan begun at the time of it's inception which was based on re gion. Today neither India nor Bangladesh are re gion based countries while Pakistan has been marching in backward direction guided by re gious fanatism.

难得一见的自省文章,很坦诚,很有勇气。巴基斯坦的问题在建国之初就埋下了——那就是宗教。今天,印度和孟加拉国都不是以宗教为基础的国家,而巴基斯坦在宗教狂热的引导下一直在倒退

 

 

Nomaan

Pakistan; a country of hypocrites, by hypocrites, for hypocrites.

巴基斯坦,一个伪君子的国度,由伪君子创立,为伪君子服务。

 

 

VG

Brilliant article. The country need to come out of many fixations (wrong) to really progress. But will the po itical sy em ever allow this to happen, at their own peril?

真是好文。这个国家需要从许多错误中走出来,才能取得真正的进步。但巴基斯坦的政治体系会允许这种情况发生吗?

 

 

A commoner

As a Finance Minister, did you try to translate these thoughts into actions ? Of course not. Would you like to shed some light (in your next piece) on the apparent and hidden barriers that didn't allow you to bring some improvement in our economy?

作为财政部长,您有没有试图将这些想法转化为行动?当然没有。您是否愿意(在您的下一篇文章中)谈谈阻碍您改善经济的障碍呢?

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