三泰虎

阿富汗安全局势,给巴基斯坦带来严重的困境和多重挑战

 Back to the future

回到未来

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AS concern grows in Pakistan about the fallout of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, protracted fighting that morphs into a civil war will pose severe dilemmas and multiple challenges for the country. Prime Minister Imran Khan reiterated this fear in a recent interview with an American TV network when he said such an outcome would be the “worst-case scenario for the country”.

随着巴基斯坦对阿富汗安全局势恶化的影响日益担忧,长期战斗演变为内战将给该国带来严重的困境和多重挑战。总理伊姆兰·汗最近在接受一家美国电视网采访时重申了这种担忧,他说,这样的结果对国家而言将是“最糟糕的情况”

Pakistan’s security is inextricably tied to Afghanistan. Prolonged strife in its neighbour will expose Pakistan to security threats that it has dealt with in the past at a heavy cost in lives and social and economic consequences. For over four decades Pakistan has borne the brunt of war, foreign military interventions and conflict in Afghanistan that produced grave repercussions for the country’s sec­u­rity, stability and economic development. The destabilising ramifications are too well known to bear repetition here. More turmoil on its western frontier would mean the country will have to simultaneously deal with internal, regional and international challenges that would flow from this outcome.

巴基斯坦的安全与阿富汗密不可分。邻国的长期冲突将使巴基斯坦面临安全威胁,巴基斯坦过去应对这些威胁时,付出了沉重的生命代价和社会经济后果。40多年来,巴基斯坦在阿富汗遭受了战争、外国军事干预和冲突的冲击,对该国的安全、稳定和经济发展产生了严重影响。破坏稳定的后果是众所周知的,不能再重演。如果利比亚西部边境出现更多动荡,将意味着该国将不得不同时应对由此产生的国内、地区和国际挑战。

In a back-to-the-future scenario Pakistan will be faced with a serious threat to its stability if civil war erupts in Afghanistan and spills over into its border areas. Pakistan has sought to mitigate this danger by fencing much of the border, sealing illegal crossing points, increasing border posts, strengthening the capacity of the Frontier Corps, upgrading training of law-enforcement personnel, enhancing technical surveillance and stationing regular troops there. While these measures are necessary, they may not be sufficient to stop the determined from crossing over given the long border and the mountainous terrain and topography.

在回到未来的情景中,如果阿富汗爆发内战并蔓延到边境地区,巴基斯坦的稳定将面临严重威胁。巴基斯坦已试图通过围起大部分边界、封锁非法过境点、增加边境哨所、加强边境部队的能力、提高执法人员的培训、加强技术监视和在那里部署正规军来减轻这种危险。虽然这些措施是必要的,但由于边界很长,山地地形,这些措施可能不足以阻止越境。

Moreover, a chaotic situation across the border will provide fertile ground and more space to a host of militant groups to continue operating from there. The principal but not only threat is from the TTP (the Pakistani Taliban) whose 6,500 members are based in Afghanistan and launch cross-border attacks from there. A reunified TTP has reinforced its capacity. The latest report of the UN’s sanctions mon oring team nes that “the return of splinter groups to the TTP fold has increased its strength”. The TTP’s links continue with the Afghan Taliban, which are acknowledged by Pakistan’s security offi als. TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud surfaced rece­ntly to announce in a CNN interview that his militant group will continue its “war ag inst Pakis­tan’s security forces” and its aim is to “take control of the border regions and make them independent”.

此外,边境的混乱局势将为许多激进组织提供沃土和更大的空间,让他们继续在那里活动。主要的的威胁来自TTP(巴基斯坦塔利班运动),其6500名成员以阿富汗为基地,并从那里发动越境袭击,但这不是唯一的威胁。一个重新统一的TTP提升了它的能力。联合国制裁监督小组的最新报告指出,“TTP派系的回归增加了它的力量”。巴基斯坦安全官员承认,TTP与阿富汗塔利班的联系仍在继续。TTP领导人Noor Wali Mehsud最近在接受CNN采访时宣布,他的武装组织将继续“对巴基斯坦安全部队的战争”,其目标是“控制边境地区并使其独立”。

A surge in violence in North and South Waziristan has led to rising casualties among Pakistani security personnel in recent months. Since May, there have been 167 te rort in dents in KP and Balochistan, an ominous portent of what could lie ahead. Armed groups residing in Afghanistan would pose a threat to Pakistan with some making common cause with elements who were defeated but dispersed after a series of successful operations by security forces. The UN report says that “a significant part of the Al Qaeda leadership is based along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border” while ISIS-K or Daesh “remains active and dangerous”.

最近几个月,瓦济里斯坦北部和南部的活动激增,导致巴基斯坦安全人员伤亡人数上升。自5月以来,在KP和俾路支省发生了167起事件,这是未来可能发生的不祥预兆。居住在阿富汗的武装组织将对巴基斯坦构成威胁,因为一些武装组织与安全部队一系列成功行动后被击败但被驱散的一些人达成了共识。联合国的报告称,“基地组织有很大一部分领导人驻扎在阿富汗和巴基斯坦边境”,而ISIS-K“仍然活跃和危险”。

以下是巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论:译者:Jessica.Wu

Jamil Soomro, New York City

Pakistan must take stern measures to ensure its Border Security and absolutely no influx of Refugees into Pakistan.

巴基斯坦必须采取严厉措施,确保边境安全,绝不会有难民涌入巴基斯坦。

 

Shahid

The ram civil war in Afghanistan, despite countless efforts, will impact region generally and Pakistan particularly. Pakistan along with regional powers can avert it through peace talks among Afghan stakeholders.Presently, power sharing formula is the only solution for peace which should nurture de ratic culture and should do efforts to disarm Afghanistan in future.

尽管付出了无数努力,阿富汗的内战仍将对整个地区造成影响,尤其是巴基斯坦。巴基斯坦和地区大国可以通过阿富汗利益相关者之间的和平谈判来避免这种局面。目前,权力均衡方案是实现和平的唯一解决办法,应培育文化,并应努力在未来解除阿富汗的武装。

 

Parsa

Civil war has already started. Taliban forcefully took over people’s homes in Lashkargah to escape bombing raids, they reneged on their promise of not fighting to take over cities. Proxy war is imminent and it is a lose lose situation for all parties concerned.

内战已经开始了。塔利班为了逃避轰炸,强行占领了拉什卡尔加的居民住宅,他们违背了不为占领城市的承诺。代理人战争迫在眉睫,这对各方都是一种双输局面。

 

Samit

Strategic depth not so strategic after all

战略深度毕竟不是战略性的

 

Jack

Looks like those dreaming of a quick and decisive win for Talibans will be disappointed.

看来那些梦想着迅速战胜塔利班的人要失望了。

 

SHAHID SATTAR

The repetition of history would have recommended the title BACK TO THE PAST instead of the present one.

如果是历史的重演,那么这个标题应该是“回到过去”,而不是“回到未来”。

 

Rebirth

The border fence is working. There are foreign, unemployed trolls sharing photos and commenting on how it’s preventing te rorts from entering Pakistan. They can be seen loitering on the Afghan side of the fence, not able to enter the country.

边境栅栏起作用了。有失业的外国喷子分享照片,评论如何阻止分子进入巴基斯坦。可以看到他们在栅栏阿富汗一侧徘徊,无法进入巴基斯坦。

 

Sheeraz Ali

The Taliban would soon set govt: and run the country because Ghani has failed to prevent Taliban's settlement over there. But it won't be possible for the Taliban until they change their strategy and ensure the world that they will not violet laws.

塔利班很快就会成立政府来管理国家,但这对塔利班来说是不可能的,除非他们改变他们的战略,并向世界保证他们不会违反法律

 

GKA

Pakistan is now asking USA and NATO to "do more" !!!

巴基斯坦现在要求美国和北约“多出手”!

 

sher singham

You r what you sow. I am sure you have heard of that saying.

种瓜得瓜,种豆得豆。我相信你们一定听说过这句话。

 

Shah

It is important to highlight TTP´s Indian funders. There are open discussions in Indian media on their support of militants in Baluchistan. Pakistan will do good by sealing the border completely including the termination of American air access over Pakistani airspace for bombing missions over Afghanistan. Also, Pakistan must hurry to let Afghani Taliban open a diplomatic office in Islbad so we can have direct access to them.

重要的强调TTP的印度资助者。印度媒体公开讨论了他们对俾路支省激进分子的支持。巴基斯坦将完全封锁边境,包括中止美国越过巴基斯坦领空执行对阿富汗的轰炸任务。此外,巴基斯坦必须尽快让阿富汗塔利班在伊 斯兰堡开设外交办事处,这样我们就能直接找上他们。

 

Shahid

What about neighbors role(s) or focus should stay only inward?

那邻国的角色呢,或者重点还是关注内部?

 

Independent observer

Wish IK chose her as the FM!

希望伊姆兰选作者当外交部长!

 

Jaws

Pathetic, failed diplomat just waking up from her slumber....

可悲的失败外交家刚从睡梦中醒来....

 

Cardiac Arrest

Pakistan asked for it. Pakistan hosts and supports one side of the afghan war.

这是巴基斯坦自找的。巴基斯坦是支持阿富汗战争的一方。

 

Dr. Sria, Aamir Ahmad

United we stand, divided we fall.

合则存,分则亡。

 

Khalid

@Jamil Soomro, New York City , if Pakistan wants to secure it's border from the insurgent groups then  Pakistan must leaves the financial assistance of Taliban and starts to help the Ashraf Ghani's  re gie.

如果巴基斯坦想要保护边境不受叛乱组织的侵犯,那么巴基斯坦必须停止对塔利班的财政援助,开始帮助阿什拉夫·加尼*

 

Observer

Pakistan is stuck between the Afghans and the Indians with a long history of association with them. Now they may have to decide which of the two to be allied with.

巴基斯坦被夹在阿富汗人和印度人之间,与他们有着长期的联系。现在,他们可能不得不决定与这两个国家中的一个结盟。

 

Foreign Passport

In this land of abundance, sanity is the only thing missing.

在这片富饶的土地上,唯一缺少的是理智。

 

  1. Saeed

With a safe border barrier well in place all along, it cannot be that easy to expect 'back to the future'.

有了安全的边境屏障,想要“回到未来”就不那么容易了。

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