Covid surge stokes recovery worries, hits growth forecast
NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: The surge in Covid-19 cases in several states across the country has stoked worries about the economic recovery under way, investment banks are scaling down their growth projections, while others are voicing concerns over the second wave and its impact on recovery.
The second wave swee the country has come at a time when the economy was emerging from the bruising impact of the lockdown imposed last year to prevent spread of the disease.
A Goldman Sachs Portfolio Strategy research report said its economists have revised down their overall calendar year real GDP growth forecast to 10.5% from 10.9% previously but it remains above the consensus forecast of 9.4%.
“Our economists believe that the containment restrictions are likely to be more targeted with hits to specific services (such as food and beverages, leisure and recreation, transport) with limited spillovers into other sectors such as construction and manufacturing,” the Goldman Sachs report said. It added that activity is likely to rebound sharply from the third quarter onwards as containment policies normalise.
On Monday, Japanese investment bank and brokerage Nomura said it was lowering the growth forecast for India to 11.5% from 12.4% in 2021.
A day later, global ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service also cautioned about the impact of the sharp increase in infections on the recovery.
Global financial major Barclays said current restrictions on mobility of people in economic hubs like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan may cause a weekly loss of $1.3 billion to GDP.
If the current restrictions remain till May-end, the total cost could add up to about $10.5 billion. Barclays maintained its FY22 GDP growth forecast at 11% but warned “if the curbs are tightened further, then we see modest downside risks”.
Country is paying the price of I competent leadership of Modi. Countries with proper planning and execution are better placed in defeated this pandemic
dadiwala and taklu have ruined the country.
India became more poor than Bengladesh first time in the History due to irresponsible PM
Amit Kumar Sharma
When a country as great as India has an illiterate and a bootlicker PM then only God can save India. We need leaders like Arvind Kejriwal to run the country, we need educated and smart politicians.
First kick off these dam fake farmers...supported by Congress .. They are the ones who don't wear masks , follow social distance and making life miserable for honest tax paying middle class . They are not farmers but middlemen disguised as farmers who are so rich that can survive without working for 4 months... Can middle class citizens who pay taxes live without working for 4 months ?????
Let us all follow the rules and get out of this mess at the earliest.
Only the citizens can break the chain. Let us be more responsible as it is also our duty to obey the rules to avoid any further spread.
why should you worry about growth??? first keep full focus on health and lives of people....
India's growing economy was systematically destroyed by economic policies of ruling BJP government. Pandemic further worsened our broken economy. Now economic recovery will depend entirely upon citizens and not government.
Indian history will remember Modi as the worst ever PM India for centuries to come.
first the Moron heading the RBI said covid will not affect the economy and till today that moron has not admitted his mistake...
First priority is to win elections...rest doesn't matter
D K D
admist 2nd wave, life is more important than business/economy
complete mismanagement by the govt. failed on every front.
economy is in complete doldrums
Illiterate fenku exported 7 crore vaccines when Indians needed it most.
If this is a Pandemic and life of people is more important than economy (We agree on this by imposing lockdowns), then make all covid related test medicines treatment and vaccination free of cost in all private Hospitals.
growth ? Even survival is doubtful for many . Ground realities are simply horrible.
Champagning in Bengal elections is more imporatnt than GDP
Feku says India has Very Huge Forex Stashed in India during last 7 years. Why Feku do not spend for welfare of Poor & needy citizens?