三泰虎

到2025年,印度经济的产出仍将比疫情爆发前的水平低12%

 India’s economy to struggle with effects of virus through 2025

到2025年,印度经济仍需与疫情的影响作斗争

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India will be worst-affected among the world’s major economies even after the pandemic wanes, with output 12% below pre-virus levels through the middle of the decade, according to Oxford Economics.

牛津经济研究院的数据显示,即使在疫情消退之后,印度仍将是全球主要经济体中受影响最严重的国家,2025年前后的产出将比疫情爆发前的水平低12%。

Balance sheet stress that had been building before the coronavirus outbreak will probably worsen, Priyanka Kishore, head of economics for South Asia and South-East Asia, wrote in the report. She projects potential growth for India at 4.5% over the next five years, lower than 6.5% before the virus.

研究南亚和东南亚经济的主管Priyanka Kishore在报告中写道,在新冠病毒爆发之前,一直在积聚的资产负债表压力可能会加剧。她预计印度未来五年的潜在增长率为4.5%,低于疫情爆发前的6.5%。

“It’s likely that headwinds already hampering growth prior to 2020 -- such as stressed corporate balance sheets, elevated non-performing assets of banks, the fallout in non-bank financial companies, and labor market weakness -– will worsen,” she said. “The resulting long-term scars, probably among the worst globally, would push India’s trend growth substantially lower from pre-Covid levels.”

Priyanka Kishore称:“在2020年前已经阻碍经济增长的逆风——比如企业资产负债表压力、银行不良资产上升、非银行金融公司的影响以及劳动力市场疲软——可能会进一步恶化。由此造成的长期创伤,可能是全球最严重的创伤之一,将推动印度的趋势增长率从疫情前的水平大幅下降。”

The contraction hasn’t deterred PM Narendra Modi from reiterating his target of making India a $5 trillion economy by 2025 from $2.8 trillion. While the go nment has announced a slew of measures to support growth, they have fallen well short of expectations to boost demand, leaving the central bank to do much of the heavy-lifting. A paper published by the Reserve Bank of India last week predicted Asia’s third-largest economy has entered a historic technical recession. Official data is due November 27.

经济萎缩并没有阻止莫迪总理重申其目标,即到2025年将印度经济规模从2.8万亿美元发展到5万亿美元。尽管政府宣布了一系列支持经济增长的措施,但这些措施对提振需求的效果远低于预期,这让央行承担了很大一部分重担。印度央行上周发表的一篇报告预测,印度这个亚洲第三大经济体已进入历史性的技术性衰退。官方数据将于11月27日公布。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts GDP will shrink 10.3% in the year to March 2021 as Modi’s sudden lockdown paralyzed activity. While a sharp rebound is forecast as economic activity resumes, there are lingering scars.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测,由于莫迪突然实施的封锁导致经济活动瘫痪,到2021年3月,印度国内生产总值(GDP)将萎缩10.3%。尽管随着经济活动的恢复,预计会出现大幅反弹,但创伤仍挥之不去。

印度经济时报读者的评论:译者:Jessica.Wu

Manjunath Yalwar

With Planning & Perseverance India will recover sooner than expected.

有了计划和毅力,印度的复苏将比预期的更快。

 

Logician

Modi sarkar will definitely achieve Minus -5 trillion economy.

莫迪肯定能实现负5万亿经济体目标。

 

Logician

Covid-19 hitting India most because PM Modi failed to address the nation to do what is necessary at the time of this natural calamity from God as all efforts failed for the vaccine.

疫情对印度的影响最大,是因为莫迪总理没有发表全国讲话,指导人们做一些必要的措施,研发疫苗的努力都失败了。

 

Anand Deshpande

Every thing is possible including 5 trillion dollar economy, since we have huge all time high dollar reserve and citizens are able to pay what ever taxes demanded by govt on petrol and diesel. Every thing is possible by squeezing tax payers and middle class.

一切皆有可能,包括实现5万亿美元经济规模,因为我们有庞大的美元储备,不管政府对汽油和柴油征多少税,公民都有能力支付。通过压榨纳税人和中产阶级,一切皆有可能。

 

Dyslexic

not sure y ppl r so pessimistic about India. every country is going thru recession (barring china) n the balance sheets of countries like france n italy r way worse than ours w/130% n 160% debt to gdp.

不知道你们为什么对印度如此悲观。每个国家都在经历经济衰退(除了中国),法国和意大利这的资产负债表比我们糟糕得多,他们的债务占GDP的比例分别是130%和160%。

 

Mahila Utthan

Laxmi gone bankrupt on Diwali, forced to marry a foreigner!

拉克希米(司掌人间财运的吉祥女神)在排灯节破产了,被迫嫁给了一个外国人!

 

Hemant Pisat

Modi Sarkar is not going to achieve $ 5 trillion GDP by 2025 with their own stupid policies. That's writing on the wall.

莫迪出台的政策不行,印度无法在2025年前实现5万亿美元GDP。这是肯定的。

 

Hari Krishna Johri

Feku is happy to make catchy slogans for public consumption as he doesn't appear to be serious to implement.

莫迪很擅长编朗朗上口的口号,但他似乎并不认真执行。

 

Varadharajan Balasubramanian

It is not the pandemic that is slowing down our growth but our inability to remain honest and work for our progress.

减缓增长的不是疫情,而是因为我们无法保持为取得进展而做的努力。

 

Singh

The economic foundations of India built over 74 years since Independence has not been built on solid grounds. Over a billion Indians on a ship that has huge holes with water flooding into its holds will sink fast.

印度独立74年了,并没有建立坚实的经济基础。如果船上有一个大洞,水会涌进船舱,船上超过10亿印度人会迅速下沉

 

Johnson K

Three banks gone to the cleaners, in six years of Mr Modis great governance. PMC, YES, LVB. At this rate it is anybody's guess how many more in pipeline. But still he fools around with his 5 trillion bluff, and we Indians are lapping it up.

莫迪执政6年,三家银行破产了。按照这个速度,谁也不知道还有多少银行要倒闭。但他仍在吹嘘5万亿美元经济体,而我们印度人仍欣然接受。

 

John

Nice Article

好文章

 

Krishan Bhargava

India will definately shine.Indian economy will certainly rebound.

印度肯定会闪耀的。印度经济肯定会反弹的。

 

Parambir Hanjra

The article is exposing modi for being only election minded all the six years from 2014. What he did was to take total control of the judiciary, administration, media, killing de acy in the process, forgetting that it was de acy that was responsible for his election in 2014.

这篇文章揭露了自2014年以来的6年里,莫迪只关心选举。他所做的就是完全控制司法、行政和媒体,在这个过程中扼杀皿煮,忘记了正是得益于皿煮,他才能在2014年当选。

 

Ajay Gupta

This article is 4 months late

这篇文章晚了4个月

 

Ajay Gupta

We are 1.4 billion people country and no oxford or some Mr iyer or some Andy Mukherjee or some goldman sachs can guess what will be the future of 1.3 billion people .everybody is way off

我们是一个有14亿人口的国家,没有哪个人能预测13亿人的未来,牛津大学的也不行

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