Indian economy accelerates in September as animal spirits soar

印度经济9月份加速增长

NEW DELHI: India’s economy picked up speed in September as a revival in demand and business activity helped drive the South Asian nation toward recovery from the pandemic-induced slump.

新德里：印度经济9月份加速增长，需求和商业活动的复苏帮助这个南亚国家从新冠疫情引发的经济衰退中走出来。

Five of the eight high-frequency indicators, including exports, tracked by Bloomberg News improved last month, while three were steady.

上月，彭博新闻社追踪的8项指标中，有5项有所改善，3项保持稳定。

Economists, including those at the Reserve Bank of India, attributed the recovery to pent-up demand after a strict lockdown imposed in March to contain the coronavirus outbreak hit the consumption of goods and services. While inventory re-stocking will underpin business activity in the coming months, the improvement might still not be enough to prevent Asia’s third-largest economy from contracting in the financial year to March 2021.

包括印度储备银行经济学家在内的经济学家将经济复苏归因于需求的复苏，3月份为遏制新冠疫情而实施的严格封锁打击了商品和服务消费后，抑制了需求。尽管库存补充将在未来几个月支撑企业活动，但这可能仍不足以阻止这个亚洲第三大经济体在截至2021年3月的财年出现萎缩。

Business activity

Activity in India’s dominant services sector continued to recover, with the main index rising to 49.8 in September from 41.8 in August. While that’s a marked improvement from April’s record low of 5.4, a number below 50 suggests it’s still in contraction territory and will probably be a drag on overall growth in the July-September quarter.

Manufacturing activity was a bright spot, with the purchasing managers index rising to 56.8 -- the highest reading since January 2012 -- on the back of a sharp expansion in new work orders, according to IHS Markit. This helped the composite index back into expansion territory -- at 54.6 -- after five months of contraction.

商业活动

印度占主导地位的服务业继续复苏，主要指数从8月份的41.8升至9月份的49.8。尽管该数据较4月的纪录低点5.4有明显改善，但扔低于50，表明仍处于收缩状态，并可能拖累7 - 9月这一季度的整体增长。

制造业是一个亮点，根据IHS Markit的数据，在新订单大幅增长的支撑下，采购经理人指数升至56.8，为2012年1月以来的最高水平。这帮助综合指数在经历了5个月的收缩后，重新回到54.6的扩张区间。

Exports

Exports returned to positive territory with shipments rising 6% in September from a year earlier. Farm exports and shipments of drugs and pharmaceuticals helped the recovery, with engineering goods and chemicals also adding to the rise. A contraction in imports moderated, resulting in a narrowing of the trade deficit.

出口

9月份出口恢复正值，发货量同比增长6%。农产品的出口以及药品的出口推动了经济复苏，工程产品和化学品的出口也推动了经济复苏。进口收缩有所缓和，使得贸易逆差缩小。

Consumer activity

Passenger vehicle sales, a key indicator of demand, rose 26.5% in September from a year ago. Retail sales too showed signs of stabilizing, even though it was nearly 70% below the year-ago level, according to ShopperTrak. That was mainly because consumer confidence remained in the dumps, an RBI survey showed, with respondents worried about jobs, loss of income and stubbornly high inflation.

Demand for loans also remained sluggish. Central bank data showed credit grew 5.2% in September from a year earlier, slightly lower than 5.5% in the previous month, and nearly half of the growth rates seen a year ago. Tighter liquidity conditions prevailed in September, although there were signs of slight easing toward the end of the month.

消费活动

衡量需求的关键指标乘用车销量9月份同比增长26.5%。据ShopperTrak的数据，零售销售也显示出了企稳的迹象，尽管较上年同期下降了近70%。印度储备银行的一项调查显示，这主要是因为消费者信心仍然低迷，受访者对就业、收入减少和居高不下的通胀感到担忧。

贷款需求也依然低迷。央行数据显示，9月份信贷较上年同期增长5.2%，略低于前一个月的5.5%，增幅接近去年同期的一半。9月份流动性趋紧，尽管月底有轻微缓解的迹象。

Industrial activity

Industrial production fell 8% in August from a year earlier, shallower than July’s revised 10.8% contraction. Capital goods output -- another key indicator of demand in the economy -- dropped 15.8% from a year earlier, although that’s milder than the 22.8% drop seen a month earlier.

Output at infrastructure industries shrank 8.5% in August from a year ago and was slightly worse than the revised 8% decline in July. The sector, which makes up 40% of the industrial production index, had contracted by a record 37.9% in April. Both data are published with a one-month lag.

工业活动

8月份工业产值同比下降8%，略低于7月份修正后的10.8%的降幅。衡量经济需求的另一个关键指标——资本货物产量较上年同期下降15.8%，不过比一个月前22.8%的降幅要小。

8月份基础设施行业的产出较上年同期萎缩8.5%，略高于7月份修正后的8%降幅。占工业生产指数40%的工业部门4月份出现创纪录的37.9%的收缩。这两项数据的发布都滞后了一个月。

印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

Tony Stark

If Indians stop buying most goods, they can be better off soon...

如果印度人停止购买货，印度经济很快就会复苏的……

lala

also kick out congress completely

还有把国大党踢出去

Times Subscriber

Govt should ban all product gradually ..we will boom more faster.

印度政府应该逐步禁售货，我们将以更快的速度发展。

Guest

Pappu destroyed Congress.

拉胡尔毁了国大党

Arun Kumar

Hopefully Growth of our Economy should quickly come back to normalcy from this virus pandemic although we are not fully crossed the threat..

Hopefully people should encourage going to malls slowly by following social distance with wearing masks, offices reopen with limited set of employees slowly and then increase later etc.,

Hopefully all should come back to normal soon..

希望我们的经济增长能迅速恢复正常，尽管我们没有完全摆脱新冠病毒的威胁。

希望人们继续戴口罩，保持社交距离，办公室限制员工人数等等，

希望一切很快就会恢复正常。

Kk

Government must ban all products. Let Pappu and his chamchaas protest and barrrkkk.

印度政府必须禁止产品，让拉胡尔他们抗议叫骂去吧。

PlatinumTruths

With MINUS 59% GDP!! Even countries like Bangladesh and Nepal had a positive GDP!! Shame on dalal regime, uneducated thugs!

GDP增速暴跌59%，就连孟加拉国和尼泊尔这样国家的GDP都呈正增长!!

莫迪政府可耻，无知的暴徒!

Arun Royappan

France and Germany planning to go for another lockdown ....don't think covid has reduced so issue solved ....2nd wave may start soon ....need to be careful

法国和德国计划再次实施封锁，不要认为病例在减少，疫情就平息了…第二波疫情可能很快要开始了…要小心点

Aam Aadmi

So. the retards who were blaming Modi instead of Covid, will now give credit to Modi for reviving the economy?

那些将经济衰退归咎于莫迪而非疫情的人，现在会把经济复苏归功于莫迪吗?

Desi

What did Modi do? If economy falls, it is Covid and if it raises, it is Modi is it?

莫迪做了什么?

经济下滑就怪疫情，经济增长就是莫迪的功劳，对吗?

Ash D

The writer should visit the market first before posting this "LIE"

在散布这个“谎言”之前，作者应该先去市场看看。

Shameer i k

Paid news before Bihar elec...

比哈尔邦选举在即，这是花钱雇人写的文章

Gaana User

Govt. must realise economic growth is directly linked with GROWTH RATE in employment.

政府必须认识到经济增长与就业增长率直接相关。

Siv Sarkar

Where is Pappu? Why he is silent now ?

拉胡尔在哪里?

现在为什么不吭声了?

Satish Sharma

Rahul is responsible for diminishing Congress, boycott of Indian Nationalism has cost Congress loosing vote share

拉胡尔削弱了国大党，对印度民族主义的抵制让国大党失去了选票

A K Ashta

Indian economy is bound to bounce back under strong leadership of Prime Minister Modi ji.

在莫迪总理的强大领导下，印度经济一定会反弹。

satya murthy

GREEN SHOOTS ,NOT ONLY VISIBLE

STARTED YIELDING FRUITS..

复苏的萌芽，不仅可见，而且开始收获成果了。

Shri

Fantastic. I think India is Greatest Economy in World. Stop listening to videsis or others. Just move on fast. Cheers

太棒了。我认为印度是世界上最伟大的经济体。不要听信其他人的话。只要快速前进，欢呼！

Angraj Mishra

Only when the last tree has been cut, the last fish caught, and the last stream poisoned, will man realize that he cannot eat money.

只有当最后一棵树被砍，最后一条鱼被抓，最后一条河流被污染死，人类才会意识到钱不能当饭吃。