Indian economy set for a near double-digit contraction this fiscal

本财年印度经济将出现近两位数收缩

The Indian economy will suffer its deepest contraction on record this fiscal year and recent government stimulus does not go far enough to significantly boost activity depressed by the coronavirus pandemic, according to economists polled by Reuters.

接受路透社调查的经济学家表示，本财年印度经济将遭遇有史以来最严重的收缩，近期政府刺激措施不足以显著提振因新冠疫情而受到抑制的经济活动。

With over 7.6 million coronavirus infections, India is the second worst hit country in the world after the United States and the spread shows no signs of abating.

印度的累计确诊病例超过760万，仅次于美国，是全球疫情第二严重的国家，而且疫情的传播没有减缓的迹象。

While the government has removed most restrictions imposed on businesses to slow the spread of the virus, the Reserve Bank of India issued gloomy economic forecasts earlier this month but kept interest rates unchanged citing rising inflation.

尽管印度政府取消了为减缓病毒传播而对企业施加的多数限制，然而印度央行本月早些时候发布了悲观的经济预测，不过由于通胀上升，维持利率不变。

That puts the onus on the government, which last week announced another round of fiscal stimulus to boost demand by $10 billion.

这把责任推给了政府。上周，政府宣布了新一轮财政刺激计划，新增刺激100亿美元的需求。

But the Oct. 13-21 poll of 55 economists showed they were more pessimistic about this fiscal year's outlook than just two months ago.

10月13日至21日对55名经济学家的调查显示，他们对本财年经济前景的看法比两个月前更为悲观。

Nearly 90% of economists, 34 of 39, who responded to an additional question said the latest government stimulus was not enough to boost the economy significantly.

39位经济学家中有34位(接近90%)表示，印度政府的最新刺激措施不足以显著提振经济。

"While the measures introduced to push consumer spending and capital expenditure are clearly innovative within the confines of fiscal prudence, they do little to move the needle significantly in terms of the growth outlook this (fiscal) year," said Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.

HDFC银行高级经济学家Sakshi Gupta表示，"虽然在财政审慎的范围内，推动消费者支出和资本支出的措施显然是创新的，但对本(财政)年度的增长前景没有太大影响。"

After shrinking a record 23.9% in the April-June quarter, the Indian economy was forecast to contract 10.4% and 5.0% in the third and fourth quarter, respectively and merely stabilize in the first three months of 2021.

4 - 6月份印度经济创纪录收缩23.9%，预计第三季度和第四季度将分别收缩10.4%和5.0%，2021年前三个月仅能企稳。

For the current fiscal year ending March 31, Asia's third-largest economy was predicted to shrink 9.8%, more than the RBI's latest 9.5% projection, and 26 of 55 economists saw a contraction of 10% or more for the year.

在截至3月31日的当前财年，这个亚洲第三大经济体预计将收缩9.8%，超过印度央行最新预测的9.5%，55名经济学家中有26人预计今年将收缩10%或更多。

The poll marks the seventh consecutive downgrade to this year's outlook and if confirmed, would be the weakest annual economic performance since records began six decades ago.

该调查是对今年经济前景连续第七次下调，如果得到证实，将是60年来（有记录以来）最疲弱的年度经济表现。

Although the economy was expected to grow 9.0% and 5.7% next fiscal year and in FY 2022-23, respectively, all but one of 36 economists with a view said it would take at least a year for Indian GDP to reach pre-COVID-19 levels.

尽管预计下一财年和2022-2023财年印度经济将分别增长9.0%和5.7%，但36名持这种观点的经济学家中，除一人外，其余人均表示，印度GDP要达到新冠疫情爆发前的水平至少需要一年时间。

印度经济时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/51125.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

bv subash

we still have to do more important jobs like mobility of people. the bus transport will not fill the gap due to the cost of tickets etc.

hence start passenger trains, bring people from the rural and Semi urban areas to the city, where there are lots of jobs but no working hands.

since the train fare is affordable people will move out to earn their daily needs.

我们还需要做一些更重要的工作，比如促进人员流动。由于票价贵，巴士将承担这一艰巨任务。

因此，我们需要启动客运列车，把人们从农村和郊区送到城市，城市有很多工作机会，但缺少劳动力。

由于火车票价格低廉，人们愿意出去赚钱养家。

nand Deshpande

What is new in this, every body including rating agencies were telling that there will be double digit contraction in FY 21

这有什么新鲜的，所有人，包括评级机构在内，都说2021财年印度经济将出现两位数收缩

ramanath

Bast**ds keep changing numbers. Itâ s become a joke of economy nowadays.

不断更改数据，这已成为当今经济的一个笑话。

Yogendra Patel

This big contraction of our gross domestic product is the consequence of thoughtless action of lockdown by our Prime Minister Modiji.

印度GDP大幅收缩是总理莫迪考虑不周的封锁行动导致的。

Madan R

This ruling party and its govt has failed in the economic front and now has the gall for promissing free vaccine in a poll document in one state, which means these laggards will go to any length to woo voters.

人民党及其政府搞经济建设失败了，居然还有胆量在比哈尔邦选举中承诺让民众免费接种疫苗，看来这些人不惜一切代价拉拢选民。

hari krishna Johri

Public understand & will teach a lesson to these Jokers.

公众了解情况了，将给这些小丑一个教训。

Manchester United

In comments, people are saying whole world is contracting, idiots, check and Africa growth, they haven't contracted by double digits.

有人评论说全球经济都在收缩，白痴，看看和非洲的增长，他们并没有出现两位数收缩。

Ajay Gupta

every week so donkey writes am article on indian economy doing bad . Articles are written such that the whole country will collapse in s day.

每周都有文章说印度经济不景气，有朝一日整个国家将会崩溃。

Ajay Gupta

please spare us from such junk articles. whole world economy is contracting. what should we do by reading such articles? stop breathing , lay dead because economy is contracting?

无视这些垃圾文章，全球经济都在萎缩。

看了这样的文章，我们应该做什么?

停止呼吸？为经济萎缩而死?

Pratyay Bhaumik

People in India do not know how to assess damage. How do you accept that they will be able to correct damage ? .

印度人不知道如何评估损失，怎么知道如何弥补损失?

Jayaraman Theeyarath

It has become a style for our "great economists" to predict gloom and doom. Learn to be positive, learn from Puri. India is already on a V shaped recovery path. But these economists like to remain blind living in their doom world!

预测经济前景黯淡已成为我们“伟大经济学家”的一种风格。要学会积极向上，印度已经走上了V型复苏之路。这些经济学家盲目生活在他们的末日世界里!

Sankar N

Unemployment is at record high level in India...destruction of market, labor & production by illiterate PM & stupid FM who fear major public backlash in the form of Civil war, Riot & unrest...even God cannot save the country..

印度的失业率创历史新高，印度的文盲总理和愚蠢的财政部长对市场、劳动力和生产造成巨大破坏，他们害怕印度民众骚乱，害怕印度民众会反对他们……神也救不了这个国家。

kamlakar deo

lndian Economy stared its downward 2016 demonetisation followed by wrong GST implementation. It is Govt 's own creation by and Corona is only a straw on camel's back. All stimulous announced so far proved to be a drop in ocean.

印度经济从2016年开始走下坡路，随后是实施消费税改革，这又是一大错误。

这是政府造成的，新冠疫情只是压死骆驼的最后一根稻草。

到目前为止，所有宣布的刺激措施都是杯水车薪。

Jayaraman Theeyarath

Why not you give your great ideas!

那你有什么高见，说出来听听？

Ramesh Shah

FROM 1/4/2020 THE BUSINESSES IN LOCKDOWNS ONLY TILL 31/3/2021 THE COMMON MAN NOT TO GET PROPER PAY....LIKE LOCKDOWNS INCOME TAX MUST NOT B CHARGED FOR THIS YEAR..

从2020年4月1日到2021年3月31日，企业关门，普通人拿不到工资…在封锁期间，不能收所得税

Valerian Pereira

Need Lesson from Bangladesh..Vietnam

印度需要向孟加拉国、越南学习

Sankar N

government has failed completely..now only disintegration, Civil war & revolt is the answer government needs..no support from government on massive unemployment...massive underemployment...government doesn't want to face these questions as it knows it has failed people completely...it has snatched away bread from mouths of people..unplanned lockdown has destroyed economy & lives of people.its matter of time before complete breakdown...even God cannot save us...government knows this & is afraid...

印度政府完全失败了。现在，只有分裂、内战和叛乱才是政府需要的答案。政府对大规模失业没有采取措施…印度政府不想面对这些问题，因为它知道自己让人们完全失望了。政府抢走了人们的面包。计划不周的封锁破坏了经济，严重影响了人们的生活…，印度彻底崩溃是迟早的事…神也救不了我们，印度政府知道这一点，而且很害怕…