Indian economy set for a near double-digit contraction this fiscal
The Indian economy will suffer its deepest contraction on record this fiscal year and recent go nment stimulus does not go far enough to significantly boost activity depressed by the coronavir s pandemic, according to economists polled by Reuters.
With over 7.6 million coronavir s infections, India is the second worst hit country in the world after the United States and the spread shows no signs of abating.
While the go nment has removed most restrictions imposed on businesses to slow the spread of the vir s, the Reserve Bank of India issued gloomy economic forecasts earlier this month but kept interest rates unchanged citing rising inflation.
That puts the onus on the go nment, which last week announced another round of fiscal stimulus to boost demand by $10 billion.
But the Oct. 13-21 poll of 55 economists showed they were more pessimistic about this fiscal year's outlook than just two months ago.
Nearly 90% of economists, 34 of 39, who responded to an additional question said the latest go nment stimulus was not enough to boost the economy significantly.
"While the measures introduced to push consumer spending and capital expenditure are clearly innovative within the confines of fiscal prudence, they do little to move the needle significantly in terms of the growth outlook this (fiscal) year," said Sakshi Gupta, senior economist at HDFC Bank.
After shrinking a record 23.9% in the April-June quarter, the Indian economy was forecast to contract 10.4% and 5.0% in the third and fourth quarter, respectively and merely stabilize in the first three months of 2021.
4 - 6月份印度经济创纪录收缩23.9%，预计第三季度和第四季度将分别收缩10.4%和5.0%，2021年前三个月仅能企稳。
For the current fiscal year ending March 31, Asia's third-largest economy was predicted to shrink 9.8%, more than the RBI's latest 9.5% projection, and 26 of 55 economists saw a contraction of 10% or more for the year.
The poll marks the seventh consecutive downgrade to this year's outlook and if confirmed, would be the weakest annual economic performance since records began six decades ago.
Although the economy was expected to grow 9.0% and 5.7% next fiscal year and in FY 2022-23, respectively, all but one of 36 economists with a view said it would take at least a year for Indian GDP to reach pre-COVID-19 levels.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/51125.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
we still have to do more important jobs like mobility of people. the bus transport will not fill the gap due to the cost of tickets etc.
hence start passenger trains, bring people from the rural and Semi urban areas to the city, where there are lots of jobs but no working hands.
since the train fare is affordable people will move out to earn their daily needs.
What is new in this, every body including rating agencies were telling that there will be double digit contraction in FY 21
Bast**ds keep changing numbers. Itâ s become a joke of economy nowadays.
This big contraction of our gross domestic product is the consequence of thoughtless action of lockdown by our Prime Minister Modiji.
This ruling and its govt has failed in the economic front and now has the gall for promissing free vaccine in a poll document in one state, which means these laggards will go to any length to woo vers.
hari krishna Johri
Public understand & will teach a lesson to these Jokers.
In comments, people are saying whole world is contracting, idiots, check and Africa growth, they haven't contracted by double digits.
every week so donkey writes am article on indian economy doing bad . Articles are written such that the whole country will col pse in s day.
please spare us from such junk articles. whole world economy is contracting. what should we do by reading such articles? stop breathing , lay dead because economy is contracting?
People in India do not know how to assess dge. How do you accept that they will be able to correct dge ? .
It has become a style for our "great economists" to predict gloom and doom. Learn to be positive, learn from Puri. India is already on a V shaped recovery path. But these economists like to remain blind living in their doom world!
Unemployment is at record high level in India...destruction of market, labor & production by illiterate PM & stupid FM who fear major public backlash in the form of Civil war, Riot & unrest...even God cannot save the country..
lndian Economy stared its downward 2016 demonetisation followed by wrong GST implementation. It is Govt 's own creation by and Corona is only a straw on camel's back. All stimulous announced so far proved to be a drop in ocean.
Why not you give your great ideas!
FROM 1/4/2020 THE BUSINESSES IN LOCKDOWNS ONLY TILL 31/3/2021 THE COMMON MAN NOT TO GET PROPER PAY....LIKE LOCKDOWNS INCOME TAX MUST NOT B CHARGED FOR THIS YEAR..
Need Lesson from Bangladesh..Vietnam
go nment has failed completely..now only disintegration, Civil war & revolt is the answer go nment needs..no support from go nment on massive unemployment...massive underemployment...go nment doesn't want to face these questions as it knows it has failed people completely...it has snatched away bread from mouths of people..unplanned lockdown has dest yed economy & lives of people.its matter of time before complete breakdown...even God cannot save us...go nment knows this & is afraid...