三泰虎

俄罗斯会穷吗

Is Russia a poor country?

俄罗斯穷吗?

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以下是Quora读者的评论:

Maxim Nesterenko

It’s definitely not poor, but Russia’s not that wealthy either.

Here’s what I learned from my experiences in living in Russia. This is based on my experiences in Russia over a few years.

In the cities

If you want to buy food, clothes, toiletries, hygienic products, laundry detergent, dishwashing fluid or any basic everyday product you won’t have to spend a lot of money. These products are domestically produced therefore they are cheap. However if you want to buy things like foreign cars, phones, computers, laundry machines, or TV sets you will have to be ready to buy it at a fairly large price. Or you could opt to buy a Russian made product that is cheaper.

俄罗斯绝对不贫穷,但俄罗斯也没那么富有。

以下是我在俄罗斯生活的经验。这是基于我在俄罗斯居住了几年的经历。

在城市里

如果你想买食物,衣服,洗漱用品,卫生用品,洗衣粉,洗碗液或任何基本的日常用品,你不会花很多钱。这些产品是国内生产的,因此价格便宜。然而,如果你想买外国汽车、电话、电脑、洗衣机或电视机,你就得准备好以相当高的价格购买。你也可以选择购买价格较为便宜的俄罗斯制造的产品。

There are lots of monuments, buildings, and interesting architecture.

I remember one time I got sick and I was having a runny nose and having a cold in Moscow and I went to the drugstore and the medicine only cost a few hundred rubles or a few dollars and then after a few days of taking the medicine I started to feel better.

Moscow’s pretty developed, interesting, and diverse

这里有许多纪念碑、建筑物和有趣的建筑。

我记得有一次我在莫斯科流鼻涕,感冒了,我去到药店买药,只花了几百卢布(几美元),吃了几天药我就开始感觉好些了。

莫斯科相当发达,有趣,多样化。

 

Robert Miller

As an American living in Russia now almost 3 years. It depends on how you define rich and poor. The standard of living is somewhat lower than the Western World in general. Imagine some friend of yous who has a big house, a new car and lots of nice things, but if he lost his job the bank would take his house, his car and many of his nice things. You might have another friend who drives an older car and owns his smaller house and very little debt. They might even make about the same income.

Who is richer?

作为一个在俄罗斯生活了将近3年的美国人。这取决于你如何定义富人和穷人。总的来说,俄罗斯的生活水平比西方国家要低一些。想象一下,也许你有一个朋友,拥有一所大房子,一辆新车和许多漂亮的东西,但是如果他失业,银行会收走他的房子,他的车和其他好东西。也许你还有另一个朋友开着一辆旧汽车,住着小房子,没有什么债务。他们的收入也许不相上下。

谁更富有?

The United States economy is based on fiat money. Every Federal Reserve Note is borrowed into existence and make up part of the national debt and the Federal Reserve charges interest for those FRNs. When you count the Federal Debt of about $20 Trillion, add in all the State and City debts, unfunded liabilities, then add in all the private, business, and corporate debt. Dont forget about the Derivatives Market that sunk the economy in 2008 with the housing bubble. Derivatives is still big business and some say it’s much bigger than in 2008. The total debt is over $600 Trillion.

Sub-prime auto loans is in the yellow zone and the Student loan bubble may be nearing the danger zone itself. The economy has been growing for nearly 7 years at a rate never more than 2.6% that with doubling the national debt spending $10 Trillion on the economy

美国经济是以法定货币为基础的。美联储的每一张钞票都是借来的,构成国债的一部分,美联储对这些国债收取利息。这些债务包括了大约20万亿美元的联邦债务,加上所有的州政府和市政府的债务,短期债务,然后再加上所有的私人债务、商业债务和公司债务。别忘了衍生品市场在2008年随着房地产泡沫的破裂而使经济崩溃。衍生品仍然是门大生意,有人说其规模比2008年要大得多。债务总额超过了600万亿美元。

次贷汽车贷款处于黄色区域,学生贷款泡沫本身也濒于危险界限。近7年来,美国经济一直以低于2.6%的速度增长,而这一增长率是国债支出10万亿美元的两倍。

Statistically another recession is right around the corner.

  • The official unemployment rate dropped to 4.4 percent, its lowest level since May 2007.
  • But the 'U-6' rate declined slightly to just 8.6 percent.

Almost double the reported rate if another 3 or 4 points gets added to the unemployment rate there will be a very serious situation in the U.S. and that will translate to Europe and China. However not to Russia because Russia does not sell very much to the U.S.

据统计,另一场经济衰退即将到来。

1、官方失业率降至4.4%,是2007年5月以来的最低水平。

2、但“U-6”率略有下降,仅为8.6%。

如果失业率再增加3到4个百分点,那么美国的形势将非常严峻,欧洲和中国也会受到影响。不过,俄罗斯对美国的出口并不多,所以俄罗斯不会被波及。

 

Mark Kempson

A distinction between economic measurements and more intrinsic things should be considered when answering this question. Russia’s economy is the same size as Australia’s in terms of GDP. There are 145 million people in Russia and 25 million in Australia - so by modern, post-industrial, de ratic standards Russia does not present as a ‘rich’ country. It is the principle reason that people should not concern themselves that Russia is going to attack other nations militarily. Blue water navies, nuclear powered cruise missiles and modern technology cost huge sums of money - ask the Americans. It hasn’t the economy to permit this, besides which, its people don’t want War.

The reason the Soviet Union went broke was the war in Afghanistan in the 1980s and being challenged militarily by the West in a way that the Soviets couldn’t manage. When Reagan and Thatcher started posturing and taking a very hard line the Soviet response was to increase military spending.

在回答这个问题时,应该考虑经济数值和更内在的东西之间的区别。俄罗斯的经济规模与澳大利亚相当。俄罗斯有1.45亿人口,澳大利亚有2500万人口,因此按照现代、后工业、皿煮的标准来看,俄罗斯并不是一个“富裕”的国家。这是人们不必担心俄罗斯会对其他国家进行军事攻击的主要原因。深海海军、核动力巡航导弹和现代技术花费了巨额资金——问问美国人吧。俄罗斯的经济不允许其这样做,除此之外,俄罗斯人民也不想要战争。

苏联破产的原因是20世纪80年代的阿富汗战争,以及在军事上受到西方国家的挑战,这是苏联无法控制的。当里根和撒切尔开始摆出姿态,采取非常强硬的路线时,苏联的反应是增加军费。

Reagan made it clear that for every dollar the Soviets spent, the Americans would spend ten. Then the ‘star wars’ nonsense reared its head. The Soviets believed the Americans had the capacity to produce a defence system in outer space that would shoot down missiles the moment they were launched. The Soviets knew they could not spend enough to match this and sought a form o0f peace. Soon after they fell-over. It was just too much debt and not enough of whatever allowed the re gie to carry on. As usual, the people suffered. But just as Russians thought their murdering,  Stalin was a hero, so they think Vlad is one too. (All Vlad does is ensure his personal enrichment).

里根明确表示,苏联每花1美元,美国人就要花10美元。然后又出现了“星球大战”的疯狂计划。苏联人相信美国有能力在外层空间建立一个防御系统,在导弹发射的那一刻就将其击落。苏联人知道他们无法投入足够的资金来实现这个目标,于是寻求一种和平途径。他们背负了太多的债务,没有足够的资金继续下去。而人民一如既往地受苦受难。但正如俄罗斯人认为斯大林是一个英雄,所以他们认为弗拉德也是一个英雄。(弗拉德所做的就是确保自己大发横财)。

What Russians want is recognition. They want to be seen as a super power - if not a great power. Vlad wants that too, which is why he makes statements in an attempt to frighten Westerners and draw attention to the ‘greatness’ of Russia. But Russia isn’t great. It pretends to be. Flash public buildings, grand railway stations and wonderful museums are all part of the illusion. I mean, they are grand by anybody’s standards, but this lavishness is not reflected in the way many people live. back in the day when all those missiles were being dragged around Red Square on those military parades - it was another example of smoke and mirrors. Half of them were made of cardboard - it was all bluff. And why? Because the Soviets were afraid of the west in the way we were of them. Consumer choice has improved since those times, but is limited by western standards. Crime is high - much like the United States - and well above the levels of western and northern Europe. Alcoholism is rife and life expectancy is short, especially among men.

俄罗斯人想要的是认可。他们希望被视为超级大国。弗拉德也希望如此,这就是为什么他发表声明试图吓唬西方人,并引起人们对俄罗斯“伟大荣耀”的关注。但俄罗斯并不伟大。它只是自诩伟大。熠熠生辉的公共建筑、宏伟的火车站和精彩的博物馆都是幻觉的一部分。我的意思是,以任何人的标准来衡量,它们都是宏伟的,但这种奢华并没有反映在许多人的生活方式上。阅兵式上红场周围所有的导弹,又是一个烟雾弹和镜中花。其中一半是硬纸板做的,全是虚张声势。为什么呢?因为苏联人害怕西方,就像我们害怕他们一样。消费者的选择有所改善,但受到西方标准的限制。犯罪率很高,很像美国,远高于西欧和北欧的水平。酗酒盛行,预期寿命很短,尤其是在男性群体中尤为如此。

But Russians are wonderful patriots and they will stick up for their nation, despite its problems. That is an admirable quality, but what is astounding is that they so love the man who is part of the problem! Russians reading this will say it is western indoctrination that causes people to think as I do, but the fact that a nation so rich in natural resources can rank relatively poorly against western democracies is a problem that cannot be wished away. Most Soviets haven’t the income to go travelling in western countries to see some obvious differences, and Americans, who do have the money simply don’t travel internationally, so there is little cross-pollination going on.

Russia does indeed have what it takes to be great. It has huge plains for farming and it has very large supplies of commodities, things like oil, coal, gas and various minerals. For this reason it ought to be quite wealthy and its people ought to be wealthy by international standards as well. The principle reason this isn’t happening is co ption. Africa is full of it, South America is full of it and Russia is full of it. Where ever a lack of de acy occurs in nations with rich natural resources one sees a pattern of co ption amongst leaders and bureaucrats. Africa and South America are very rich in resources but the average people do not see a ‘trickle down’ effect from that wealth. On the other hand, take a country like Norway with its oil reserves, not discovered until the late 1960s. Norway now has the highest standard of living in the world because of that oil. Low co ption, a strong constitutional monarchy and a social de ratic ideology existed before that wealth was discovered and so when the wealth came, the structures were in place to make sure average people got the benefits of that.

但俄罗斯人是伟大的爱国者,他们会捍卫自己的国家,尽管自己的国家并不完美。这是一种令人钦佩的品质。俄罗斯人读到这篇文章会说,是西方的灌输导致人们像我一样思考,但一个自然资源如此丰富的国家在与西方皿煮制度的对比中排名相对较低,这是一个不能通过仅仅许个愿就能解决的问题。大多数苏联人没有足够的收入去西方国家旅行,并得以看到明显的差异,而美国人,虽然有钱,但不会出国旅行,所以几乎没有交汇的机会。

俄罗斯确实具备成为伟大国家的条件。它有大片的平原可以耕种,还有丰富的商品供应,比如石油、煤炭、天然气和各种矿产。因为这些原因,它应该是相当富有的,它的人民也应该过着富裕的生活。但这种情况没有发生的主要原因是附败。非洲,南美,俄罗斯到处都是如此。凡是自然资源丰富的国家缺乏皿煮,领导人和官僚之间就会出现附败现象。非洲和南美资源非常丰富,但普通民众看不到这种财富带来的“涓滴效应”。另一方面,以挪威为例,它的石油储量直到20世纪60年代末才被发现。由于石油,挪威现在拥有世界上最高的生活标准。较少的附败,强大的君主立宪制和社会皿煮意识形态在财富被发现之前就已经存在了,所以当财富到来时,社会结构就已经确定,所以普通民众都能从中受益。

The reason Russia is not as wealthy as its resources might suggest is also a function of huge wealth inequality in Russia - a problem that also dogs America and its violent society. A very small number of people control most of the wealth. In fact, this disparity is even more pronounced in Russia than in America. In Europe, especially in the social de ratic nations, this disparity is somewhat less pronounced, giving rise to greater social cohesiveness, greater happiness, lower rates of mental illness, lower crime rates, lower imprisonment rates, lower rates of drug addiction compared to America and lower rates of alcoholism compared to Russia.

俄罗斯之所以没有其资源所应匹配的那么富有,也是俄罗斯巨大的财富不平等造成的——这个问题也困扰着美国及其社会。极少数人控制着大部分财富。事实上,这种差距在俄罗斯比在美国更为明显。在欧洲,特别是在社会皿煮国家,这种差距不太明显,这导致社会凝聚力的增强,幸福感的提高,精神病发病率、犯罪率、监禁率的降低,吸毒率低于美国,酗酒率低于俄罗斯的现象。

 

Branislav Jeremić

Russia is definitely not a poor country. The word “poor” in Russia is not even close to “poor” in India or in Pakistan, or in subsaharian Africa. That’s what poor means.

The more I read about economic social theories devoted to comparison of the economy of countries (and I’ve been doing that a lot recently), the more I am confused. On top of that I am more reluctant to take official statistics for granted. GDP per capita, average salary and consumer’s basket are not good enough in presenting the real truth.

But let’s start from the official statistics. From 1999 to 2014 before the political conflict with west started, Russia had had fascinating GDP growth, economical and social development, modernization of infrastructure and political system. Average salary reached some 600€ per month net which, compared to EU, had put it in the range with Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Croatia… This was not a bad result at all. Additionally to that, Russia had the lowest fuel price on the market. Particularly speaking about Moscow and St. Petersburg, two greatest and highly developed cities, economy and wealth in those were completely comparable to Western Europe, with average salary above 1000€.

俄罗斯绝对不是一个穷国。俄罗斯的“贫穷”跟印度、巴基斯坦或非洲地区的“贫穷”完全不搭边。这些地方才是真的贫穷。

我读到的有关国家经济比较的经济社会理论越多(最近我经常这样做),就越感到困惑。最重要的是,人均GDP、平均工资和消费篮子不足以反映真实情况。

但让我们从官方数据开始说起。从1999年到2014年,在与西方的政治冲突开始之前,俄罗斯有着令人瞩目的GDP增长、经济和社会发展、现代化的基础设施和政治体系。平均工资达到每月净600欧元左右,与欧盟相比,相当于捷克、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、匈牙利、克罗地亚等国的工资水平……这个水平相当不错。此外,俄罗斯的石油价格是全球最低的。特别是莫斯科和圣彼得堡这两个最大高度发达的城市,其经济和财富完全可以与西欧相媲美,平均工资在1000欧元以上。

In the last four years, Russian economy has stagnated due to sanctions and political crisis. GDP has dropped for several percent, while avg personal income of families has dropped even more, about 20%. In rural areas and in less developed towns, people work for 200–400 euros a month. Moscow is still much better place to live, but investments have slowed down.

近四年来,由于制裁和政治危机,俄罗斯经济一直停滞不前。国内生产总值下降了几个百分点,而家庭平均个人收入下降了更多,大约20%。在农村地区和欠发达的城镇,人们每月工资为200-400欧元。莫斯科仍然是一个更适合居住的地方,但投资已经放缓。

 

Chris Helmbrecht

What is poor? Its a matter of definition. Although a Westerner would consider a lot of Russians poor, they would never think of themselves as being that (because there are many more people, who get even less income).

There is a middle class, especially in the big cities, but its also suffering from the recent economic downturn and the low Rubel conversion rate, which is mostly based on the low oil price (the Russian economy being dependent on oil & gas exports) and has not as much to do with the sanctions as many people believe.

Especially on the countryside people are poor. They live with very low incomes, if they even have work. A lot of people live from what they grow in their gardens and collect in the woods.

什么是贫穷?这是一个定义问题。尽管西方人会认为很多俄罗斯人很穷,但他们永远不会承认自己是穷人(因为有许多人的收入甚至更低)。

俄罗斯有着中产阶级,特别是在大城市里,但他们也受到最近经济衰退和卢布兑换率低的影响,这主要是基于低油价(俄罗斯经济依赖石油和天然气出口),与许多人认为的制裁没有多大关系。

尤其是在农村,人们很穷。即使有工作,他们的收入也很低。很多人靠着他们在花园里种植的东西和在树林里采摘的东西为生。

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50809.html 译者:Joyceliu

A policeman makes around 200 USD / month. Doctors and Teachers not much more. A sales clerk in a Moscow supermarket gets around 300 USD / month. A 5 star hotel receptionist in Moscow gets around 550 to 700 USD. A ballerina not the Solist, they get more) gets around 300 to 1000 USD / month. Mid-management gets 2000 - 5000 USD / month, which is a lot already. And sure there are positions, where people earn more, but this should get you a general idea. On the countryside and in the Russian regions, the income is much less, unless one works on an oilfield above the Artic circle or in the deep Taiga.

Sure. There are the rich and super rich, but the majority of the people live on salaries below 1000 USD / month. Don’t get me started on the pensioners, of which most get very little and are depending on the support of the kids or need to continue to work.

一个警察每月大约挣200美元。医生和老师也多不到哪儿去。莫斯科超市的售货员每月能挣300美元左右。莫斯科五星级酒店的接待员可以赚取550到700美元。芭蕾舞演员(非独舞),他们的收入更高,约300到1000美元/月。中层管理人员每月能拿到2000-5000美元,这已经是很多了。当然,有些职位赚得更多,但这应该能让你有个大概的想法了。在农村和俄罗斯地区,人们的收入要少得多,除非你在北极圈以上的油田或在塔伊加河深处工作。

当然。俄罗斯有富人和超级富豪,但大多数人的工资都低于每月1000美元。还有领取养老金的人,他们中的大多数人的退休金很低,依赖于孩子的赡养或继续工作。

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