三泰虎

尽管问题重重,为何莫迪仍是最受欢迎的领导人

 View: Despite all problems, why is Modi still the most popular leader?

观点:尽管问题重重,为何莫迪仍是最受欢迎的领导人?

By Mihir Sharma

India’s Covid-19 cases continue to climb, even as the economy tanks. China is pressing forward on the two countries’ disputed Himalayan border, where dozens of Indian soldiers have been killed. Tax revenues have plummeted, state go nments are unhappy and 21 million of India’s rare salaried jobs vanished in the last few months. And yet Prime Minister Narendra Modi — who recently posted pictures of himself feeding peacocks in his serene garden — remains as popular as ever.

印度的新冠病例继续攀升,与此同时印度经济已经崩溃。中国在两国有争议的喜马拉雅边界不断向前推进,已有数十名印度士兵在边界丧生。税收锐减,邦政府不满,过去几个月里,2100万人失业。然而,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪仍然像以前一样受欢迎,他最近上传了在花园里喂孔雀的照片。

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How does Modi do it? While they have responded to the coronavirus in different ways, many of his fellow populists are struggling. Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, faced with crashing poll numbers, flatly refuses to believe they are true. Multiple missteps in recent months have brought Boris Johnson’s Tories practically level with Labour in some recent U.K. polls. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party is facing a tough set of local elections. And, of course, there’s U.S. President Donald Trump, whose re-election campaign seems to be based largely on pretending the pandemic doesn’t exist.

莫迪是怎么做到的?尽管他们以不同的方式应对冠状病毒,但他的许多民粹主义同辈却在苦苦挣扎。面对突如其来的民调数字,墨西哥的洛佩斯断然拒绝相信这是真的。近几个月来,鲍里斯•约翰逊领导的托利党频频决策失误,使其在最近的一些英国民调中几乎与工党持平。弗拉基米尔•普京的统一俄罗斯党正面临一系列艰难的地方选举。当然,还有美国总统唐纳德·特朗普,其连任竞选似乎在很大程度上建立在假装疫情不存在的基础上。

Modi seems to understand something that the others do not about the relationship between a populist leader and voters. In a crisis, you can, like Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, temporarily push your numbers up through cash transfers. Or you can, like Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, use identity politics to distract people from your bungles; that’s being tried in India as well.

对于民粹主义领导人和选民之间的关系,莫迪似乎明白一些其他人不明白的东西。在危机中,你可以像巴西的博尔索纳罗那样,通过发现金暂时提高支持率。或者你可以像土耳其的雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安那样,利用身份认同政治来分散人们对你拙劣表现的注意力,印度也在尝试这样做。

But there’s another factor Modi exploits to the hilt. The most adept populist leaders don’t only detach the electorate’s perception from inconvenient facts, providing an alternative narrative in which they, and they alone, are the stars. To repeat that trick in the face of disasters such as a recession or a pandemic, they also need to act. They have to make the sort of big decisions around which their supporters can construct a convincing narrative: a decision that comes across as brave, or stern, or wise, or fatherly or, ideally, all of those things.

但莫迪还充分利用了一个伎俩。这位最老练的民粹主义领导人莫迪能够迅速将选民的视线从不方便展现的地方转移开。为了在经济衰退或流行病等灾难面前重演这一伎俩,他们还需要采取行动,必须做出一些重大决定,他们的支持者可以围绕这些决定构建一个令人信服的故事:一个让人觉得勇敢,或者坚定,或者明智,或者慈父般的决定,或者,理想的情况下,这些兼具。

When Modi, with just a few hours’ notice, withdrew 86 per cent of India’s currency in November 2016, it was unquestionably a disaster. People lost jobs and livelihoods, economic growth was mortally injured and, given that all the money eventually returned to circulation, none of the exercise’s goals were actually met.

2016年11月,莫迪仅提前几小时通知收回86%的印度货币,这无疑是一场灾难。人们失去了工作和生计,经济增长受到了严重冲击,鉴于所有的钱最终都回到了流通中,目标没有真正实现。

What Modi learned from the experience, however, is that it does not matter whether the decision you make pans out or not. All that matters is that people believe that you did something big, something that only you would dare to do, and that you did it for the best reasons.

然而,莫迪从这次经历中学到的是,你所做的决定是否成功并不重要。重要的是,人们相信你做了一件大事,一件只有你敢做的事,并且相信你做这件事有充分的理由。

That’s what many Indian voters thought about “demonetization”: If the gambit didn’t work, it was everybody else’s fault. At least Modi tried to stamp out co ption, supporters said, doing something no other prime minister in India’s history, no other world leader had done. (For good reason.)

所以许多印度选民对“废钞令”的看法是:如果这一策略没有奏效,那就是其他人的错。支持者称,至少莫迪试图根除附败,做了印度历史上其他总理、世界上其他领导人都没有做过的事情。(理由充分)。

Just months after demonetization, while Indians were still suffering from its after-effects, Modi’s party won crucial elections in India’s largest state. The political scientists Rikhil Bhavnani and Mark Copelovitch discovered that, in fact, Modi’s party did relatively better in those areas where people were hurt the most by demonetization. Apparently, the worse the medicine tastes, the more the doctor must care about the disease and want to cure it.

实施“废钞令”仅仅几个月后,印度人仍在遭受其后遗症的折磨,而莫迪所在的人民党在印度最大的邦赢得了关键选举。政治学家Rikhil Bhavnani和Mark Copelovitch发现,实际上,在那些受莫迪这一政策负面影响最大的地区,莫迪政党收获的表现反而更好。显然,药越苦,医生就越要关心疾病,越想要治愈它。

When Modi shut down the Indian economy in March in response to Covid-19’s arrival on our shores, he did so relatively early. India’s was also perhaps the most draconian such shutdown globally.

今年3月,为应对新冠肺炎疫情,莫迪实施了封锁,暂停了经济活动,他这么做的时间相对较早。印度实施的封锁可能是全球最严格的。

While people suffered, every voter in every part of the country knew that Modi alone had shut the economy down in response to the threat. By taking action early and on the grandest possible scale, he essentially inoculated his popularity against the pandemic’s political effects. No rival can now accuse him of not doing enough and be believed by voters.

当人民遭受苦难时,全国各地的每一位选民都知道,莫迪暂停可经济活动以应对威胁。通过及早采取大规模的行动,他基本上为自己的声望接种了“疫苗”,以抵御疫情的政治影响。现在,没有任何对手可以指责他做得不够,阻止他获得选民的信任。

Denial and delay was, in any case, the wrong course. Now the consequences of not acting are entirely on them. In India, they’re on everyone else. If the pandemic spreads, that’s because bureaucrats, or state go nments, or the people themselves failed to live up to the leader’s vision.

无论如何,否认和拖延都是错误的做法。现在,不采取行动的后果就完全由他们自己承担了。在印度,每个人都有责任。如果疫情蔓延,那是因为官僚、邦政府或人民自己没有实现领导人的愿景。

Some have hoped that the pandemic will cause voters around the world to once again demand “competence” from their leaders. That’s just wishful thinking. The evidence from India is that nothing has changed. The populist playbook is still effective, as long as it’s in hands as skilled as Modi’s.

有些人希望,这场疫情将使世界各地的选民要求"有能力"的领导人上台,但这只是一厢情愿的做法,印度就是一个很好的例证,一切并没有改变。只要它掌握在像"莫迪"这样的老手中,民粹主义的玩法就会仍然奏效。

印度经济时报读者的评论:

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50802.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

Ashutosh Agrawal

If the voters and majority Indians do follow the reasoning giving in this article for liking Modi then god only can save the country. Economic disaster is staring the country. For long the Indian voters were termed as very wise and clever. It seems now they can be easily be fooled.

如果选民和大多数印度人都因为文章中给出的理由喜欢莫迪,那么只有神才能拯救这个国家了。

印度正面临经济灾难。长期以来,印度选民都被认为是非常明智和聪明的,但现在看来,他们很容易被愚弄。

 

Satish Berry

WHEN PM MODI WAS IN GUJURAT. PEOPLE WISHED HIM TO BE IN DELHI TO LEAD THE WHOLE COUNTRY. SO PEOPLE WERE HAPPY AND KIND OF RELIEVED WHEN HE BECAME PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIM UNTIL HE IS NO LONGER AROUND. GOD BLESS PM MODI LONG LIFE FOR INDIA.

当莫迪在古吉拉特邦执政的时候,人们希望他能在德里领导整个国家。

所以当他成为总理时,人们很高兴,也松了一口气,并将继续支持他,直到他下台。愿神保佑莫迪总理,印度万岁。

 

Pradeep Kumar

To see disasters

就是为了看到灾难吧

 

Rajiva Ranjan

A decisive and honest leader who really believes in welfare of people.

莫迪是一个果断而诚实的领导人,真正为了人民的福祉。

 

Sarat Kumar Chakra

Because he is most dedicated

因为他是最敬业的总理

 

Sangeeta Srivastava

There is no match of Modi even in the world. See all the leaders are experiencing less popularity barring Modi.

放眼世界,没一个领导人比得上莫迪。看,除了莫迪,所有领导人的支持率都在下降。

 

Navin Mithal

Indians have a leader who has a vision for India that is 'clear', 'for India only', 'a man of credibility that has stood test of time', 'fearless in taking decisions in the interest of India', and more.

莫迪对印度有一个“明确”的愿景,“只为印度”,他是一个“经受住时间考验的有信誉的人”,无畏地为印度的利益做出决定

 

Sanjay Sharma

That shows people believe leaders with integrity. People who do something can go wrong rather than people who do nothing. Meaning of leadership is asking people do go beyond their comforts. He is not a manager. He is a leader

这表明人们相信正直的领导者。采取了行动的人总会出错,什么都不做的人才不会犯错。

 

Dhruv Sharma

See..what Indians should now focus on is that we do not go back to the kind of domestic politics we had before the political revolution began in 2012-2014. Its is important that we stand united as a Nation, as its responsible citizens. No caste, no creed, no religion will save you. In the end, WE the PEOPLE lose.

印度人现在应该关注的是,我们不会回到2012-2014年政治革命开始之前的那种国内政治。

重要的是大家团结在一起,没有种姓。信仰,宗教不能拯救我们。最终,输的是人民。

 

Chandra

Only a handful Modi haters keep screaming disaster, disaster and provide selective data to support their viewpoint. But, people do not agree. One question to ask is whether anyone else could have done better or have done better, people's answer is no.

只有少数讨厌莫迪的人不停地叫喊灾难,灾难,并提供选择性的数据来支持他们的观点。但是,人们不认同。要问的一个问题是,其他人是否可以做得更好,或者已经做得更好,人们的回答是否定的。

 

Adventurer H

Elections decide n shouldn't be the media.

Next PM it wont be smooth sailing because people want results whoever it is.

My personal view, PM is elected by the people of India n it's his second term, so something good must have been seen.

选举不应该由媒体来决定。

下一任总理不会一帆风顺,因为人们都想要看到结果,不管是谁当总理。

我个人认为,莫迪总理是由印度人民选出的,这是他的第二个任期,所以人民肯定看到了一些好事。

 

RAVINDRANATH KUNNATH

Bloomberg and such leftist mags have a blinkered approach to their 'favorite' subjects - be it Trump, Duterte or Modi ! Even if Modi did make India into the richest nation still some fault would be created just on spite.

彭博社这样的左翼杂志对他们“喜爱”的主题都是狭隘的,不管是特朗普、杜特尔特还是莫迪!

即使莫迪真的让印度成为最富有的国家,他们还是会故意挑刺。

 

Shubhang Joshi

Thanks to the intent of such biased articles and the sorry state of opposition, BJP will cross 400 in 2024...take my word! And that is good for the nation.

这些文章带有偏见,反对党不成气候,人民党将在2024年获得400个席位,相信我的话!这对国家有好处。

 

Nageswara Rao S

another ant modi article from the great B

又是一篇反莫迪的垃圾文章!

 

My My

In our country having a leader with a good intention is also rare. It's not easy to be bold. So please let him work, you can better judge opposition leaders.

在印度,有良好愿景的领导人很少见。要做一个大胆的人并不容易,所以请让莫迪继续工作吧。

 

Harry Plotter

I think popularity of Mr. Modi has a lot to do with weak opposition.

我认为,莫迪的受欢迎程度很大程度上与反对派实力薄弱有关。

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