A rural resurgence will fuel India's economic recovery


India has just experienced the wettest June since 2013, according to the India Meteorological Department data. The rainfall was 15% above normal. Barring pockets in the Himalayan states and western Uttar Pradesh, the distribution of rain during the month was phenomenally even. There will be a normal monsoon this season, the Met department has forecast.


With rainfall comes hope, especially in rural areas and agriculture belts. And as the Covid-19 pandemic brutalises the country’s economy and paralyses its urban growth centres, a faint glimmer of light arises from rural India — often referred to as Bharat. Economists and corporate honchoes are on the same page: the panacea for the growth problem is likely to come from Bharat as India limps back to normalcy. The very fact that tractor sales have bucked the auto slump — in May, tractor sales in the domestic market registered a decent 4% growth year-on-year — indicates the rural economy may be in better health than the urban one.



But a good monsoon is not the only reason why policymakers and India Inc alike are anticipating a rural resurgence. They point out to three things: First, farming continued even during the lockdown that started March 25, while manufacturing languished. Second, more land has been under cultivation this year, according to preliminary assessments by government agencies. Third, many factory workers who returned to their rural hometowns as jobs evaporated in the cities are now involved in farming activity. These factors, and the lack of any other positive sentiment in the near-term, have convinced corporate India, particularly those with a wider rural portfolio, to focus on consumers in Bharat.


But do farmers share India Inc’s optimism?


In Uttar Pradesh’s Gautam Buddha Nagar — a district on the outskirts of Delhi — two farmers have contrasting stories to share about the state of their businesses since the lockdown was announced. At Khodna Khurd, Satyender Kumar says he got cheaper labour in April to harvest wheat on his 20-acre land. The produce, weighing about 300 tonnes, were ferried in six tractor-trips to Dadri’s wholesale market. Now, as the rice season begins, he has hired eight labourers from Hardoi, some 300 km away, to work on his fields. “For those of us who cultivate wheat and rice, the lockdown had zero impact. Instead, we profited a bit as labourers were willing to work for lower wages because there was no other work once the lockdown began. Those who cultivated perishable items such as vegetables faced a serious problem,” he says.

在印度北方邦德里郊区的高塔姆佛纳加尔区,农民讲述了自封城宣布以来各自的状况,情况截然不同。在Khodna Khurd, Satyender Kumar说他在4月份雇到了更便宜的劳动力为其收割20英亩小麦。这些农产品重约300吨,用6辆拖拉机运到Dadri的批发市场。现在,随着水稻季节的开始,他从300公里外的Hardoi雇佣了8名工人在他的田里干活。他说:“对我们这些种植小麦和水稻的人来说,封城没有任何影响。相反,我们获得了一些好处,因为封城后,没有其他工作可做了,工人们愿意接受工资较低的工作。但是种植易腐农产品(比如蔬菜)的人却面临着严重的问题。

In Tusyana village, floriculturists say they suffered a loss as demand dried up in Ghazipur’s wholesale market. “Temples and mosques were closed. Even after these were reopened, no one was allowed to go in with flowers. Also, big marriage functions are not happening. Where will demand for flowers come from?” asks Keshav Saxena, one of the several workers plucking roses on a 50-acre field. Hopefully, the roses won’t get wasted completely as makers of incense sticks procure dried flowers, even though the farmers will get much lesser remuneration.

在几公里外的图斯亚纳村,花农称,由于加兹普尔批发市场的需求枯竭,他们遭受了损失。Keshav Saxena是在一块50英亩的花圃里采摘玫瑰的工人,他说:称:“寺庙和清真寺关闭,即使在重新开放之后,也不允许携带鲜花入内。此外,婚庆活动减少,鲜花需求将从何而来?”希望这些玫瑰不会完全浪费掉,因为香薰制造商会购买干花,尽管农民的收入会少得多。

The growth stimulus, however, will now have to come from rural areas, says the Prime Minister’s economic adviser, Bibek Debroy. “The Union government has announced measures to improve agricultural marketing.

然而,总理的经济顾问Bibek Debroy说,对经济增长的刺激现在必须来自农村地区。“联邦政府已经宣布了改善农产品营销的措施。

The consensus that rural India will lead the nation’s economic revival has been backed by recent sales numbers, too. Tractor sales — seen as an important barometer of the rural economy — were up in May. In June, numbers released by companies so far have shown a massive demand for tractors. Escorts Ltd, for example, said it saw a 23% sales growth in the domestic market. Mahindra & Mahindra reported a 10% rise in sales in June. Even the tax numbers have a rural flavour. A simple analysis of the June numbers of the goods and services tax (GST) shows shrinkage of revenue in Delhi, Haryana and Gujarat — states with a substantial urban population. A comparatively robust growth was registered in the predominantly rural states. For example, in June, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh saw an impressive GST growth of 24% and 22%, respectively, from a year ago.


But an economic resurgence in rural India can have a downside too. What if farmers end up producing plenty, thereby disrupting the demand-supply equilibrium? Prices of agriculture products will fall sharply, impacting the farmers themselves. Theoretically, exporting the surplus should level out the problem. But it is not that simple in practice.


Nitin Agarwal, managing director of Mumbai-based grapes exporter Euro Fruits, says fruits that are exported might not find takers in the domestic market. “The grapes we export to the UK and Europe are bigger and have lesser sweet content. So, a variety can’t be exported just because there is a surplus in the domestic market,” says Agarwal.

孟买葡萄出口商Euro Fruits的总经理尼廷•阿加瓦尔说,出口的水果可能在国内市场找不到买家。他说:“我们出口到英国和欧洲的葡萄更大,含糖量更低。因此,不能仅仅因为某一品种在国内市场过剩就出口。”

To tackle a sudden spurt in agriculture production, the government should have a well-calibrated strategy ready for immediate deployment. In the meantime, it should try and find a way to encourage rural growth and spread those gains across the country.




译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50267.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

Jagdip Vaishnav

Forget about Economy recovery in India atleat for a year .Still worst time is fast approaching



Narendran Raman

Only stock market is moving up irrespective of the economic distress. The only way economic will recover by supply and demand balancing. We are definitely in the recession.



Washikar Rahman Rahman

Clarity will emerge only after the FY20-21Q2 Results & Economic Data are out

只有在2020- 2021财年的季度业绩和经济数据出来之后,形势才会明朗


Vidyanand Singh

We have entered in new era post pandamic. world thinking will be totally different from previous today approx 30% people have went back to native places .we have to look towards the Bharat rather then India from now because The down of India will accelerate rise of Bharat



Yeshwant Pande

Yes ofcourse. Our economic problem has five layers .First start with the damages caused by Demonetization which reduced the working cash capital by almost fifty percent and then was carried over a year. Second was the mess created by introduction of unorganized GST which again carried over till this day. Third part coming from international economic slow down and is in force. Fourth and fifth is contribution of Corona lockdown and blockade. Assuming that two initial are taken care over a period of three years the rest will take minimum two years to come back to the original gdp of 2016_17.

我们的经济问题在于五个层次。首先是“废钞令”所造成的损害,使营运现金资本减少了近50%,并持续了一年以上。其次是商品及服务税带来的混乱,这种混乱一直延续到今天。第三,国际经济放缓。第四、疫情造成的封锁、第五、的阻碍。假设在三年内处理好前两个问题,剩下3点至少需要两年时间才能克服,这样印度经济才能恢复到2016 - 2017年GDP水平。


Kewal Khanna

the economy is picking up fastly.One will see that by Diwali our economy will be on sound footing.



Stany Machado

Yes,stock market surge look like short-lived



Indranil Saha

When I was in school I learnt about demand and supply equilibrium.But in real life it's very difficult to maintain demand and supply equilibrium.And we all know that disequilibrium creates mess and there is really a mess in global economy.In India demand is really very low.Public are worried about their income and job specially those who lost their job during this pandemic.They are very cautious with their spending. Government has taken certain steps those will only help the supply side not the demand side.Sentiments of general public is very low.I feel that government should come up with some more fiscal measures which will boost the demand side by giving some relief through both direct and indirect tax.



Cosmic Rr

I hope goverment does more to farmers than relaxng loans before elections and sibsidies.




Rain or Drought our country is self sufficient in Food and Milk. Don't allow any corporate to enter into Agriculture because once if they enter there will not be any control over the price of food and Milk.




Feku, aka Surrender Modi, is a curse for India. He has been drawing punishments from heaven since he came to power in 2014. India is now facing multiple crises - coronavirus pandemic, economic meltdown, locust swarms, floods, unemployment, famine, border disputes... Feku's so-called Acche Din have turned into a nightmare for India. Even if we kick Feku out of India today, it will still take at least a decade for the next PM to undo all the damages done by Feku.



Anand v

This is the Time to Bring In Bold Reforms for the Economic Recovery to Take Place .......WE NEED TOUGH LAWS TO HANDLE THE DELAYING AND BACKWARD bureaucracy AND URGENT LAWS AND GUIDELINES to RETRENCH the unproductive and corrupt



Sivakrishna T

It is better to live in rural areas than Mumbai slums.



Shri Mahesh

better send 300 million desis to Africa, Americas and Asia. go buy farms, land and biz



Shri Mahesh

make value added goods. grow and sell high value products. diversify and win.


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