Abandoning lockdown, India's coronavir s cases may reach 800,000 in a month: Study



NEW DELHI: After giving up on a costly lockdown, India's coronavir s outbreak is projected to nearly triple by July 15 to over 800,000 cases as its leaders tell citizens to 'learn to live with the vir s'.


The forecast from a team of data scientists at the University of Michigan would put India just below Brazil, the world's second worst-hit country at present, and on track to surpass the Latin American country given its massive population of 1.3 billion people and the ongoing relaxation of containment measures.


"You cannot see the peak, it's been pushed further in time," said Bhrr Mukherjee, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Michigan who is part of the team that's modeling India's pandemic. She removed longer term projections from the team's website because they were causing people to panic. "I wish I could be more positive but I think it's going to be really hard over the next couple of months."

密歇根大学的生物统计学教授Bhrr Mukherjee是预测印度疫情团队的一员。她说:“目前看不到疫情高峰,已经推后了”。她删除了团队网站上的长期预测,担心会引起人们的恐慌。“我希望能更积极一些,但我认为接下来的几个月真的很难。”

India tried a nationwide lockdown at the end of March, at a relatively early stage of its detected outbreak. While the measures arguably slowed transmission somewhat, they didn't flatten India's infection curve as hoped.


In fact, the lockdown pushed India toward its first full-year economic contraction in over four decades, rendering millions jobless and forcing the Narendra Modi-led go nment to ease curbs this month. Daily cases have since spiked to over 11,000, taking the total tally past 332,000, trailing only the US, Brazil and Russia.


With lockdowns too costly to continue and the surge of new cases each day too overwhelming to implement the kind of test-and-trace strategy used in South Korea and Germany, India must now focus on limiting casualties while ho people practice social distancing on their own.


And as day labourers put out of work by the lockdown continue to flee India's megacities for their villages in India's hinterland, infections have begun to multiply in the poorer parts of the country that have even less health care infrastructure.


Spokespeople for the ministry of health and the Indian Council of Medical Research did not respond to calls and emails requesting comment.


"India can't afford to have any more lockdowns and, therefore, the strategy is to open up and deal with the vir s — I think the slogan is live with the corona," said Rnan Laxminarayan, director of the New Delhi and Washington DC-based Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy. "You basically have to live with it until the vaccine arrives or there is herd immunity."

新德里和华盛顿特区的疾病动力学、经济和政策中心主任Rnan Laxminarayan说:“印度无法再继续实行封锁,其策略是开放,应对疫情,口号是与新冠病毒共存。基本上必须与病毒共存,直到疫苗问世,或者实现群体免疫”

Both those milestones are far off. Herd immunity occurs when at least 60% of a population develops antibodies naturally after infection.




译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50111.html   译者:Jessica.Wu

Johnson K

Sad state of affairs. We had all the time in the world all the way from January to March . But instead of ram up the infrastructure, the go nment was busy playing po itics, dislodging ed go nments, making fun of people who raised COVID preparations, Bringing in an abrupt lockdown. No thought process has been applied in handling of the pandemic.



Ramesh Mandayam

I think PM n the whole go nment have let down the country very badly. It’s now out of control. By the time the vaccine is developed half of India will be infected




Corona is spreading like cancer in our country. Hero has to take some drastic action like surgical strike to save Bharat mata.



Truth Is Bitter

Petroleum Price increased for 10 Days ... NO NEWS ??




Its really sad ; but it makes me laugh whenever I remember , by April begng "bhakts had declared modi the leader in controlling Covid all over world , n wanted an award for modiji for his efficient corona management".




Eye Star

So What did we gain out off Lockdown? Can PM expn to all?



Nangachod Mohammed

This is like World War Three with on one side and all the other countries on the other side. wants to become the only superpower that will rule over the entire world.




Babus need money hence need to open the economy and put lives of their citizens in danger , increasing prices of petrol and diesel .



Raj S

Corona vir s spreading like wild fire just because of ignorance of people. After Mr. Modi appealed to citizens for clap from the balcony many people started dancing on the streets ( Garba was performed in Gujarat). Go nment can make the plans but implementation is our responsibility so we can't blame Go nment this failure.



Sameer K

India seems will never see a peak as this will keep pushing back with the PM already announcing defeat, learn to live with coronavir s.




Secular gang is feeling happy in this situation too as they have now opportunity to blame Modi and try to bake po itical breads out of it



Kl Kishor

With our leaders in centre and state doing only po itics. It will be much more than 800000.



Bonny Moraes

Who shall we blame? It is “act of god”.




Johnson K

But we had all the time in the world from January to March to Ramp up health services and facilities. More beds, more PPE kits, a good protocol for handling of patients etc.



Sreenivasa Mohendra

If the pandemic doubling in every 15 days, then it should be 14 lakhs by 15th July.



manish nigam

Now what ? it's not just a question mark.



Deep Ocean

Results of inefficiency and corrupt policies of BJP and its allies.




stop producing like roaches... be vegan .. earth will be at peace



Pratap Potluri

Cant Blame God for Man Made Errors , Vir s was made by Humans !!



Rudra Kundu

Why only this kind of negative news? Why should we talk about low death rate? Why do we not talk about high recovery percentage? Why? Why has beenthis kind of news printed? What is the motive?



Shabbir Vora

Media just spreading panic among public. The agency should be fined or banned for spreading such news



Preeth Indian

First testing must be minimum 3 lakhs per day to reach that figure. With very low testing India will never reach 8 lakhs


三泰虎原创译文,禁止转载!:首页 > 印度资讯 » 研究表明,如果放弃封城,印度确诊病例或在一个月内达到80万例