India coronavir s: Why is India reopening amid a spike in cases?
India is roaring - rather than inching - back to life amid a record spike in Covid-19 infections. The BBC's Aparna Alluri finds out why.
On Saturday, India's go nment announced plans to end a national lockdown that began on 25 March.
This was expected - the roads, and even the skies, have been busy for the last 10 days since restrictions started to ease for the first time in two months. Many businesses and workplaces are already open, construction has re-started, markets are crowded and parks are filling up. Soon, hels, restaurants, malls, places of worship, schools and colleges will also reopen.
But the pandemic continues to rage. When India went into lockdown, it had reported 519 confirmed cases and 10 deaths. Now, its case tally has crossed 173,000, with 4,971 deaths. It added nearly 8,000 new cases on Saturday alone - the latest in a slew of record single-day spikes.
So, why the rush to reopen?
The lockdown is simply unaffordable
"It's certainly time to lift the lockdown," says Gautam Menon, a professor and researcher on models of infectious diseases.
"Beyond a point, it's hard to sustain a lockdown that has gone on for so long - economically, socially and psychologically."
From day one, India's lockdown came at a huge cost, especially since so many of its people live on a daily wage or close to it. It put food supply chains at risk, cost millions their livelihood, and throttled every kind of business - from car manufacturers to high-end fashion to the corner shop selling tobacco. As the economy sputtered and unemployment rose, India's growth forecast tumbled to a 30-year-low.
Raghuram Rajan, an economist and former central bank governor, said at the end of April that the country needed to open up quickly, and any further lockdowns would be "devastating".
The oion is shared by global consultant McKinsey, whose report from earlier this month said India's economy must be "managed alongside persistent infection risks".
"The original purpose of the lockdowns was to delay the spike so we can put health services and sy ems in place, so we are able handle the spike [when it comes]," says Dr N Devadasan, a public health expert. "That objective, to a large extent, has been met."
In the last two months, India has turned stadia, schools and even train coaches into quarantine centres, added and expanded Covid-19 wards in hospitals, and ramped up testing as well as production of prective gear. While grave challenges remain and shortages persist, the consensus seems to be that the go nment has bought as much time as possible.
"We have used the lockdown period to prepare ourselves… Now is the time to revive the economy," Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said last week.
The silver lining
For weeks, India's relatively low Covid-19 numbers baffled experts everywhere. Despite the dense population, disease burden and underfunded public hospitals, there was no deluge of infections or fatalities. Low testing rates expn the former, but not the latter.
In fact, India made global headlines not for its caseload but for its botched handling of the lockdown - millions of informal workers, largely migrants, were left jobless overnight. Scared and unsure, many tried to return home, often desperate enough to walk, cycle or hitchhike across hundreds of kilometres.
Perhaps the choice - between a vir s that didn't appear to be wreaking havoc yet, and a lockdown that certainly was - seemed obvious to the go nment.
But that is changing quickly as cases shoot up. "I suspect we will keep finding more and more cases, but they will mostly be asymptomatic or will have mild symptoms," Dr Devadasan says.
The hope - which is also encouraging the go nment to reopen - is that most of India's undetected infections are not severe enough to require hospitalisation. And so far, except in Mumbai city, there has been no dearth of hospital beds.
The go nment, for instance, has been touting India's mortality rate as a silver lining - at nearly 3%, it's among the lowest in the world.
But some are unconvinced by that. Dr Jacob John, a prominent virologist, says India has never had, and still doesn't have, a robust sy em for recording deaths - in his view, the go nment is certainly missing Covid-19 deaths because they have no way of knowing of every fatality.
Dr John, like several other experts, also predicts a peak in July or August, and believes the country is reopening so quickly because the "go nment realised the futility of such leaky lockdowns".
A shift in strategy
So is the go nment gearing up for another lockdown when the peak comes?
The federal go nment has left it to states to decide where, how and to what extent to lift the lockdown as the vir s' progression varies wildly across India.
While the go nment has said how many infections have been avoided - up to 300,000 - and lives saved - up to 71,000 - by the lockdown, there is no indication of what lies ahead.
There is only advice: The day the go nment began to ease restrictions, Mr Kjeriwal tweeted, urging people to "follow discipline and control the coronavir s disease" as it was their "responsibility".
The overwhelming message is that the vir s is here to stay, and we have to learn to live with it - and the only way to do that, it appears, is to let people live with it.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/50017.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
there's no go nment check to help recover the loss, so people have to choose their ways to die, by starvation or by vir s.
Just read about the caste sy em. It’s enough to understand why India society is hard to move forward.
People have got to make a living. People get cabin fever and can't stay home no more. They are willing to take their chances with the vir s.
One simple answer is that many people don't follow lockdown in India. It makes lockdown meaningless.
India just gave up - as they simply cannot manage the massive population. That’s the real reason.
Without population control how India moving to develo country.
India needs birth control.
if a lockdown worked there wouldn't a spike in cases genius.
They saw what the lockdown did to the economy and people.
Lockdown was extended in highly impacted areas through June 30. in other areas only a few activities allowed
India has a death rate of 4 per million compared to 400 per million in the USA
India is doing a great job
Modi is an ultra capable leader
ever since DJ Trump visited India in February, the cases jumped from zero to over 170k s in India....
o man, i think india is going the way of brazil...
Because it’s not deadly and all media hype.
THE COWS TOLD THEM THEY COULD OPEN UP......
I think BBC needs to stop reporting about India , cannot trust BBC ...