三泰虎

中国是如何养活超过10亿人口的?是依靠粮食进口还是自给自足

How is China able to provide enough food to feed its population of over 1 billion people? Do they import food or are they self-sustainable?

中国是怎么生产足够的粮食养活超过10亿人口的? 是依靠粮食进口还是自给自足?

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以下是Quora读者的评论:

Roy Chambers

While China’s land is 20 to 30% arable, their ability with farming means that they are a net exporting of produce. Where China was importing was because many regional areas grew local varieties of crops. So in the north the corn could be yellow, white, purple or speckled. In the far south I have had sweet corn that was so sweet it was like eating candy. They were importing because industrial farming and food processing is all about consistent quality.

Another note is China is one of the few places in the world that successfully does fish farming. Of course they have been doing this for 2000 years. Their farming culture is often very efficient in terms of land use, though not in terms of labour use.

In recent years the growing suburbs around the cities have put pressure on land use and they are losing a lot of farm land. In addition the growing wealth means that they eat more meat, which is far less efficient.

China has taken steps to secures its own food supply by buying land around the world, in particular in Africa. But China doesn’t need to import food as such, it just needs to ensure food supply for the future and in times of disasters like flood and drought.

中国的可耕种土地只有国土面积的20%到30%,不过耕种能力意味着他们会是农产品的净出口国。中国进口的农产品是许多地区种植的本地品种的农作物。所以在北方,玉米有黄色的、白色的、紫色的或花色的。在遥远的南方,我吃过甜玉米,甜得像在吃糖果。他们进口农产品是因为工业化农业和食品加工需要保证质量。

另一个值得注意的是,中国是世界上少数几个成功进行鱼类养殖的地方之一。当然,他们在2000年前就成功做到了。他们的农业文化在土地利用方面通常是非常高效的,尽管在劳动力利用方面并不太高效。

近年来,城市周边日益发展的郊区给土地利用带来了压力,他们正在失去大批农田。此外,不断增长的财富意味着他们食用更多的肉,但肉类养殖还没那么高效。

中国已经采取措施,通过在世界各地购买土地,特别是在非洲购买土地,来确保自己的粮食供应。中国不需要进口粮食,它只需要确保未来的粮食供应,应对洪水和干旱等自然灾害。

 

Vyndar Lothar, lived in China (2008-2011)

China’s 1.4 billion people are building up an appetite that is changing the way the world grows and sells food. The Chinese diet is becoming more like that of the average American, forcing companies to scour the planet for everything from bacon to bananas.

But China’s efforts to buy or lease agricultural land in developing nations show that building farms and ranches abroad won’t be enough. Ballooning populations in Asia, Africa and South America will add another 2 billion people within a generation and they too will need more food.

That leaves China with a stark ultimatum: If it is to have enough affordable food for its population in the second half of this century, it will need to make sure the world grows food for 9 billion people.

Its answer is technology.

中国14亿人口正在改变世界粮食种植和销售方式。中国人的饮食结构正变得越来越像普通美国人,这迫使企业在全球范围内搜刮从培根到香蕉等各种食品。

但中国在发展中国家购买或租赁农地的努力表明,仅在海外建设农场和牧场是不够的。亚洲、非洲和南美洲不断膨胀的人口将在一代人的时间里再增加20亿人,他们也将需要更多的食物。

这给中国留下了一个严峻的考验:如果中国要在本世纪下半叶为其人口提供足够的负担得起的粮食,就必须确保全世界种植的粮食能供应90亿的人口。

答案是技术。

 

Carolyn Patton, former Retired teacher , economics World History US Hist at Detroit Public Schools (1984-2009)

They have been buying agricultural products from us , exclusively until the Donald started the tariff game now the are courting the world for agricultural products . Soy beans are a good example , the Chinese are now looking for markets in South America , Sub Sahara Africa and both Eastern and Western Europe. The farmers in the United States are going to be hurt by this move because they know their price will be under cut by the South American , and the African countries and that market will be lost and gone forever. China does not have enough land to feed all of its population so now since they are no longer destitute they can afford to buy food on cheaper markets . Guess the US farmers will have to start growing weed. The President doesn't understand that when America was great back in the day was because everybody else was broke and hungry. Now the only broke and hungry people on this planet are those caught in a war, such as in Yemen. So when you take your ball and go home nobody gets upset ,the game keeps on going because they all have a ball to play with. The United States is going to have to start treating nonwhite people as human beings and not something other than . Because they are the ones with the wealth not the Europeans.

他们一直从我们这里购买农产品,直到特朗普开始关税游戏,现在他们在向世界兜售农产品。大豆就是一个很好的例子,中国人现在正在南美、撒哈拉以南的非洲以及东欧和西欧寻找市场。美国的农民将会受到这次关税行动的伤害,因为他们知道他们的价格会被南美国家和非洲国家压低,永远失去中国市场。中国没有足够的土地养活所有的人口,所以现在他们不再贫困,可以在更便宜的市场买到食物。我猜美国农民将不得不开始种植杂草。总统不明白,美国当年之所以伟大,是因为所有人都身无分文、饥肠辘辘。现在这个星球上唯一贫困和饥饿的人是那些陷入战争的人,比如也门的百姓。所以即便你把球带回家,也没有人会不高兴,比赛会继续进行,因为他们都有球可以玩。美国将不得不开始把非白人当作人类。因为他们才是拥有财富的人,不是欧洲人了。

 

Rich Coffman, lives in China (2012-present)

On a simpler note, I have lived in China going on 6 years now and enjoy getting up at 6am to visit all the farmers bringing their goods to the street market for sale. If you like to cook, food is pretty cheap here.

In the neighborhoods nearby, the age groups that are in the more senior sector, have a history of living without food during the Cultural Revolution years and before. From this, they have acquired a habit of being frugal and at the same time are very resourceful when it comes to utilizing every patch of land to grow food even if it is as small as 5 meters square.

Food is part of the culture here and sometimes there’s even a bitter exchange of whose bit of “patch” you are planting on which requires the local authorities to step in and manage the issue.

Overall, you never have to worry about food. Almost every street corner has someone selling cooked Chinese style meals. And it’s all good!

简单地说,我在中国已经生活了6年了,我喜欢早上6点起床,去把商品拿到集市上出售的农民那儿逛逛。如果你喜欢自己做饭,这里的菜很便宜。

在附近的社区里,年龄较大的群体在文 革期间及之前经历过食不果腹的生活。因为这一点,他们养成了节俭的习惯,同时在见缝插针用小块土地种植粮食方面也很有办法,即使是仅有5平方米的小块土地。

食物是中国文化的一部分,有时甚至会引发激烈的争论,你要种植谁的那块“地”,要求地方当局介入并处理这个问题。

总的来说,你永远不必担心食物。几乎每个街角都有人在卖中餐料理,全都很好吃!

 

Samantha Gordon, former Construction Manager at Jadi Astute

China only accounts for 7% of the world's land, but this 7% of the land has 21% of the population. It is 7% of the land in this area, but it has fed 21% of the people and is called a miracle by the world. At present, China holds the area of cultivated land, which is ranked after the United States, India, and Russia, ranking fourth in the world. But China can create such a miracle, and everyone must be very curious?

Although the average Chinese arable land is extremely small, the Chinese are particularly hardworking. Every Chinese knows how to make good usage of every inch of land. Chinese farmers can be said become the essential hardworking group on the planet. They do not have vacations. 365 days a year, committed, and diligent and intensive for lifelong.

And China's agricultural technology is currently increasingly more developed, like the renowned hybrid rice. Whenever Yuan Longping drilled to the area daily to examine hybrid rice, the last study and development was successful, which made a great share on production of Asia's grain and allowed the limited land to create even more food.

Moreover, the Chinese go nment has vigorously rectified the water conservancy and water conservation jobs. Nowadays, it's very difficult for China having a big flood in the basin, and possesses a great affect lasting meals production.

中国的国土面积只占全世界的7%,但这7%的土地上却生活着全球21%的人口。中国用7%的土地,养活了21%的人口,被世界称为奇迹。目前,中国耕地面积居世界第四,仅次于美国、印度、俄罗斯。但中国可以创建这样一个奇迹,大家肯定非常好奇吧?

虽然中国的平均耕地面积极小,但中国人特别勤劳。每一个中国人都知道如何利用好每一寸土地。中国农民可以说是地球上最不可或缺的勤劳群体。他们没有假期。一年365天,一生专注,勤奋,精进。

而中国目前的农业技术也越来越发达,比如著名的杂交水稻。袁隆平每天到该地区检查杂交水稻,最后研究和开发成功了,为亚洲的粮食产量做出了极大的贡献,用有限的土地产出更多的粮食。

此外,中国还大力整顿水利和节水工作。目前,中国流域洪涝灾害十分严重,对粮食生产影响很大。

 

Brice Fleckenstein

They do import some food, but not a lot of it.

Keep in mind though - they are almost identical in size to the US, QUITE A BIT BIGGER if you exclude Alaska (most of which is NOT FARMABLE) and I’d estimate the US could sustain 1.5 billion or so if we pulled out ALL the stops on our agriculture to maximize output.

Corn ALONE we put massive amounts into ethanol production, we EXPORT massive amounts of wheat and corn most years along with a lot of soybeans, we don’t HAVE to have huge quantities of cattle that are very INefficient at converting grain to food)….

If their pop goes up another 200 million though, they are going to have some serious issues - but their massive “stop pop growth” efforts of the last 30–40 years seems to have them headed for a pop IMPLOSION in about 20 more years….

他们确实进口了一些食物,但进口量不是很大。

请你牢记——他们的国土面积跟美国差不多,如果你把阿拉斯加排除不计(大部分地区不是宜耕土地),中国甚至还要更大一些,我估计如果我们使出浑身解数农业产出最大化,美国也许能供养15亿左右人口。

单说玉米,我们将大量玉米产量转化成乙醇制品,我们常年出口大量的小麦、玉米以及大豆,我们不需要饲养大量的牛,这种动物在将谷物转化为食品方面非常低效....

如果他们的人口继续增加2亿,他们将会面临一些严重的问题——他们过去30-40年大规模“控制人口增长速度”的努力似乎将让他们在20多年后面临人口问题……

 

Bengt Persson, Attempting to understand complex systems for 50 years

Most of the China population lives in eastern rice plains, with good rice framing climate and soil, that could sustain >200 people per sq km with traditional methods. To compare, typical American suburbs have a lower population density.

Better rice variants and farming methods introduced during the last decades have allowed a further increase of rice production per sh km.

On the other hand the expectation on food quality and mix have also increased in China, resulting in a need to either import e.g. meat or use former rice land for meat production, which gives less energy per sq km.

中国大部分人口生活在东部水稻平原,那里有良好的水稻气候和土壤,用传统方法每平方公里可以养活200人。相比之下,典型的美国郊区人口密度较低。

在过去几十年里他们引进了更优良的水稻变种和更先进的耕作方法,使水稻产量进一步增加。

另一方面,中国对食品质量和结构的期望也有所提高,导致进口肉类的需求或将以前的水稻田用于肉类生产,这减少了每平方公里的能源消耗。

 

Francine Rizza, Author and Bespoke China Tour Organiser (2013-present)

China is the biggest wheat, vegetable and fruit grower in the World.

Although China's agricultural output is the largest in the world, only 12.6% of its total land area can be cultivated. China's arable land, which represents 10% of the total arable land in the world, supports over 20% of the world's population.

Of this approximately 1.4 million square kilometers of arable land, only about 1.2% (116,580 square kilometers) permanently supports crops and 525,800 square kilometers are irrigated.

The land is divided into approximately 200 million households, with an average land allocation of just 0.65 hectares (1.6 acres).

China's limited space for farming has been a problem throughout its history, leading to chronic food shortage and famine. While the production efficiency of farmland has grown over time, efforts to expand to the west and the north have met with limited success, as such land is generally colder and drier than traditional farmlands to the east. Since the 1950s, farm space has also been pressured by the increasing land needs of industry and cities.

中国是世界上最大的小麦、蔬菜和水果种植国。

虽然中国是世界上农业产量最大的国家,但耕地面积只占其国土总面积的12.6%。中国耕地面积占世界耕地总量的10%,供养着世界20%以上的人口。

在这约140万平方公里的耕地中,只有约1.2%(11.58万平方公里)的土地长期用于种植作物,52.58万平方公里的土地用于灌溉。

这片土地被划分给了大约2亿户家庭,每户平均分配的土地只有0.65公顷(1.6英亩)。

中国有限的农业用地一直是中国历史上的一个问题,导致了长期的粮食短缺和饥荒。尽管随着时间的推移,农田的生产效率有所提高,但向西部和北部阔张的努力成效有限,因为这些土地通常比东部的传统农田更冷、更干旱。自20世纪50年代以来,由于工业和城市对土地的需求不断增加,农场空间也受到了压力。

 译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/p/49961.html 译者:Joyceliu

 

Thomas Adams, former Interagency Rep

China is a net importer of agricultural products. Some commentators seem to believe that this is somehow a criticism of China, it is not. China produces most of its own meat and dairy products, but imports of these products are also significant. The mix of agricultural imports is diversifying as China’s purchases of fruits, nuts, cassava, sugar, wine, breeding stock, and processed food imports rise. Discussion: Food security is seen as very important for internal stability, the primary concern of the  China). Extreme measures have been taken to increase domestic production but a rising population, changing food demands (e.g. more meat) and China’s lack of arable land have made it a major importer of food. Rising steadily with China’s development during the 1990s food imports have now reached about US$29 billion from the US alone. Other countries exporting to China include those with large amounts of arable land including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Brazil and Argentina. BTW: China is a world leader in aquaculture (i.e. fish farming)

中国是农产品的净进口国。一些评论人士似乎认为,这在某种程度上是一种对中国的批评,但事实并非如此。中国生产自己的大部分肉类和奶制品,不过这些产品的进口量也相当可观。随着中国对水果、坚果、木薯、糖、葡萄酒、种畜和加工食品进口的增加,农产品进口的构成正在多样化。讨论:粮食安全被认为对内部稳定非常重要,这是中国最关心的问题。

中国已经采取了一些极端的措施来增加国内产量,但是随着人口的增长,食物需求的变化(比如肉类食用量增加)和中国耕地的缺乏使它成为了一个主要的食物进口国。上世纪90年代,随着中国的发展,中国的粮食进口稳步增长,目前仅从美国就进口了约290亿美元的粮食。其他向中国出口的国家包括拥有大量耕地的国家,如澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰、巴西和阿根廷。顺便说一句,中国是世界水产养殖的头号大国。

 

John Bickel, Quality/process Review in a Data Center Company

They don’t produce enough food to feed their population; they import quite a bit. They are exporting plenty of food too; it’s funny how the economics of import and export work out. I live in Thailand and per my understanding quite a bit of food is being sent there (fruit, rice, etc.), and something like Snickers bars would often be produced in China and imported back to here.

When I first visited China nearly a decade ago (maybe 9 years back?) I was curious about how crowded it would look, and issues like this, how sustaining such a large population would go. I was a bit surprised that it didn’t look any different than anywhere else. Housing density can be higher, but that stands out more in Hong Kong than where I’ve been in China (Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai).

他们生产的食物不足以养活他们的人口;他们进口了不少东西。也出口大量的食物;进出口经济学很有趣。我住在泰国,据我所知,很多食物(水果、大米等)被出口到中国,而士力架之类的东西通常是在中国生产,然后再进口回这里的。

大约十年前,我第一次访问中国的时候(也许是9年前吧?)我曾很好奇它看起来究竟会有多拥挤或者诸如此类的问题:如何维持这么庞大的人口。我有点惊讶,它看起来和其他地方没有什么不同。住房密度可能会更高,香港的住房密度比我去过的中国城市(深圳、北京和上海)更吓人。

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