Covid-19: Lockdown prevented 37,000-78,000 deaths, govt says

印度政府称，封城减少了3.7万-7.8万死亡病例

NEW DELHI: Seeking to underline the benefits of the lockdown that have been questioned in some quarters, the Centre on Friday presented various models that indicated India may have averted an estimated 14-29 lakh Covid-19 cases and 37,000-78,000 deaths due to the infection.

新德里：由于封城受到质疑，为了强调封城带来的好处，周五印度中央政府称，不同的计算模型表明，通过封城，印度或已减少了约14万-29万例确诊病例，3.7万-7.8万人死亡病例。

Presenting the analysis of the first two phases of lockdown, Niti Aayog member (health) Dr V K Paul, said restrictions had significantly reduced the speed at which the virus was spreading.

印度国家研究院成员保罗博士介绍了对前两轮封城的分析，他说封城已经显著降低了病毒传播的速度。

“On April 3, we had 22.6% new cases per day, the behaviour of the virus was exponential. But after April 4, there was a clear slowing down and it has now settled at 5.5%,” he said. The lockdown was imposed on March 25, and Paul said it took a time lag for its effects to show up in terms of a declining rate of infection.

保罗博士称：“4月3日，新增病例增幅达22.6%。在4月4日之后，增速明显放缓，目前已稳定在5.5%。”封城是3月25日开始实施的，经过一段时间后，效果才显现出来，感染率已经下降了。

Besides slowing the spread of the disease, the lockdown allowed the government to line up resources in terms of health infrastructure and medical workers, increased medical supplies and gain experience in containment measures. It also shortened the wait for potential drugs, vaccines and treatment besides step up research, Dr Paul said.

除了减缓病毒的传播，封城也方便政府整合医疗资源，调配医务人员，增加医疗用品供应并获得控制疫情方面的经验。保罗博士称，除了加快研究进度外，封城还缩短了潜在药物、疫苗研发和治疗的等待时间。

Sharing the projections of a no-lockdown scenario, Praveen Shrivastava, secretary, ministry of statistics, planning and programme implementation, cited models including ones prepared by Boston Consulting Group, Public Health Foundation of India, independent economists and researchers as well as by the ministry itself in partnership with Indian Statistical Institute.

印度统计、规划和执行部部长普拉文•施里瓦斯塔瓦分享了对“未封城”情况下的预测，他引用了一些计算模型，其中包括波士顿咨询公司、印度公共卫生基金会、独立经济学家和研究人员以及该部与印度统计研究所合作编写的模型。

According to BCG, 36 lakh-70 lakh cases and 1.2-2.1 lakh deaths may have been averted due to lockdown while PHFI estimated that 78,000 deaths were avoided.

根据BCG计算模型，通过封城，印度可能减少了360万- 700万例确诊病例，12-21万例死亡病例，根据PHFI，印度减少了7.8万例死亡病例。

Two independent economists estimated that 23 lakh cases and 68,000 deaths could have been averted, whereas some retired scientists and epidemiologists put it at 15.9 lakh cases and 51,000 deaths averted. Modelling by the statistics ministry and ISI found that 20 lakh cases and 54,000 deaths were averted.

两位独立经济学家估计，通过封城，印度或已减少了230万例确诊病例，6.8万例死亡病例，而一些退休科学家和流行病学家认为，印度减少了159万例确诊病例和5.1万例死亡病例。统计部门和ISI建立的计算模型表明，印度减少了200万例确诊病例和5.4万例死亡病例。

印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

its afact

India crossed 120k ... Still feku team is busy in imaginary no. game.. shame

印度的确诊病例突破了12万了…莫迪团队还忙着篡改数据，无耻啊

Narendra Kothapalli

It may have saved 10s if thousands, but the economic depression will kill millions

封城可能挽救了成千上万人的生命，但经济萧条将夺去数百万人的生命

Ordinary Indian

Irrelevant comment. If you have a better solution let's hear it.

如果你有更好的解决方案，那就说出来听听

Sanjay Kamath

Not Prevented but delayed only

封城没有阻止疫情的蔓延，只是拖延了蔓延的进度。

Neeraj Kumar

Lockdown was the dumbest decision especially for the country like India where 70% of population are so poor that they don't have access to clean water, toilets. In slums they share toilets, 10 persons live in small room. They can't follow social distancing even if they want. That's why no poor country in the world has imposed this kind of very strict lockdown.

封城是最愚蠢的决定，尤其是对印度这样的国家而言。印度70%的人口非常贫穷，他们喝不上干净的水，没有厕所用。在贫民窟，人们共用厕所，10个人住在一个小单间里。

即使他们想保持社交距离，也不做到啊。全球没有一个贫穷国家实施了这种非常严格的封锁措施。

Geno Champ Stalin

We can not shut down a big country like India for a disease with 3% mortality rate.

印度是个大国，不能为了这种死亡率仅为3%的疾病而封锁整个国家。

Vikash Holla

And how much is the effect due to not banning international travel on time? We are in this situation due initial ignorance.

不及时禁止出入境的后果有多严重?

我们陷入这种境地就是因为最初不重视。

Abhishek Kumar

That was past how will you prevent now after opening everything

这都算过去的事了，现在都逐步解封了，政府接下来要怎么控制疫情？

R C SOOD

By self lockdown and take maxmum precautions for your own and others safety.

为了自己和他人的安全，待在家里，采取全面的预防措施，

Angshuman Talukdar

It's still increasing by 5-6 thousands every day...so please stop self appreciation and do the needful... economy is already in coma and migrant workers are dying on the roads..they are our fellow citizens and builders of modern India

印度的确诊病例每天仍以5-6千的速度增长……不要自己给自己脸上贴金了，去做其他事情把……印度经济已经处于休克状态了，民工死在路上，他们是我们的同胞，是现代印度的建设者。

ejas Shah

Lockdown doesn't mean Covid spread is over.

封城并不能阻止疫情的蔓延。

Murtaz K

like who can predict death ? only Superman Modi

谁能预测死亡人数?

只有超人莫迪

Sambappa Kalvala

Don’t cook statistics to justify some element of failure

不要编造数据来掩饰失败了

Guest

Good they saved thousand, but buried millions of migrants & their livelihood.

封城拯救了数千人，却害苦了数百万民工，断了他们的生计。

amber tyagi

reality is that more people are going to die if the lockdown is relaxed in current hotspots

如果疫情热点地区放松封锁，会有更多的人死亡

Dreet

What about migrant workers? Have you forgotten about their plight

民工呢?

你们忘了他们的困境了吗

Kayin

so this means feku and team will lock the nation forever and do all these jumlaa?

所以这意味着莫迪及其团队将下令无期限封城？

rajesh kp

Lock down was another utter failure like demonetization .Without any proper plan,it executed.Crores of migrant workers affected because of this unplanned execution of brainless Leaders.And when Covid became out of control ,lock-down removed.

封城彻底失败了，就像废钞令一样，没有制定合适的计划就仓促实施。数以百万计的民工受到影响。领导人太无脑了，疫情失控了却下令解封。

Venkatesh Venki

feku ka feku statistics started. .

开始捏造数据了

chanakya

India is among the top 10 infected countries and the cases are rising exponentially. very soon, we will reach this figure of 37,000

印度的感染人数位居全球前10，确诊病例呈指数增加。很快，我们的死亡人数就会达到37000人

Garg Sanjay

Number of cases are touching a new peak everyday. We may be one of the few where the curve is still rising daily for the new number of cases.

确诊病例每天都在攀升。我们可能是少数几个确诊病例仍在逐渐上升的国家之一。

KIM

Lies, all the media houses are advertising channels for BJP. Why is the natural disaster of west bengal not getting headlines !!!

谎言，所有媒体都是人民党的喉舌。为什么西孟加拉邦受气旋袭击却没上头条!!