Covid-19: Lockdown prevented 37,000-78,000 deaths, gt says
NEW DELHI: Seeking to underline the benefits of the lockdown that have been questioned in some quarters, the Centre on Friday presented various models that indicated India may have averted an estimated 14-29 lakh Covid-19 cases and 37,000-78,000 deaths due to the infection.
Presenting the analysis of the first two phases of lockdown, Niti Aayog member (health) Dr V K Paul, said restrictions had significantly reduced the speed at which the vir s was spreading.
“On April 3, we had 22.6% new cases per day, the behaviour of the vir s was exponential. But after April 4, there was a clear slowing down and it has now settled at 5.5%,” he said. The lockdown was imposed on March 25, and Paul said it took a time lag for its effects to show up in terms of a declining rate of infection.
Besides slowing the spread of the disease, the lockdown allowed the go nment to line up resources in terms of health infrastructure and medical workers, increased medical supplies and gain experience in containment measures. It also shortened the wait for pential drugs, vaccines and treatment besides step up research, Dr Paul said.
Sharing the projections of a no-lockdown scenario, Praveen Shrivastava, secretary, ministry of statistics, planning and programme implementation, cited models including ones prepared by Boston Consulting Group, Public Health Foundation of India, independent economists and researchers as well as by the ministry itself in partnership with Indian Statistical Institute.
According to BCG, 36 lakh-70 lakh cases and 1.2-2.1 lakh deaths may have been averted due to lockdown while PHFI estimated that 78,000 deaths were avoided.
Two independent economists estimated that 23 lakh cases and 68,000 deaths could have been averted, whereas some retired scientists and epidemiologists put it at 15.9 lakh cases and 51,000 deaths averted. Modelling by the statistics ministry and ISI found that 20 lakh cases and 54,000 deaths were averted.
India crossed 120k ... Still feku team is busy in imaginary no. game.. shame
It may have saved 10s if thousands, but the economic depression will kill millions
Irrelevant comment. If you have a better solution let's hear it.
Not Prevented but delayed only
Lockdown was the dumbest decision especially for the country like India where 70% of population are so poor that they don't have access to clean water, toilets. In slums they share toilets, 10 persons live in small room. They can't follow social distancing even if they want. That's why no poor country in the world has imposed this kind of very strict lockdown.
Geno Champ Stalin
We can not shut down a big country like India for a disease with 3% mortality rate.
And how much is the effect due to not banning international travel on time? We are in this situation due initial ignorance.
That was past how will you prevent now after opening everything
R C SOOD
By self lockdown and take mamum precautions for your own and others safety.
It's still increasing by 5-6 thousands every day...so please stop self appreciation and do the needful... economy is already in coma and migrant workers are dying on the roads..they are our fellow citizens and builders of modern India
Lockdown doesn't mean Covid spread is over.
like who can predict death ? only Superman Modi
Don’t cook statistics to justify some element of failure
Good they saved thousand, but buried millions of migrants & their livelihood.
reality is that more people are going to die if the lockdown is relaxed in current hotspots
What about migrant workers? Have you forgotten about their plight
so this means feku and team will lock the nation forever and do all these jumlaa?
Lock down was another utter failure like demonetization .Without any proper plan,it ex ted.Crores of migrant workers affected because of this unplanned execution of brainless Leaders.And when Covid became out of control ,lock-down removed.
feku ka feku statistics started. .
India is among the top 10 infected countries and the cases are rising exponentially. very soon, we will reach this figure of 37,000
Number of cases are touching a new peak everyday. We may be one of the few where the curve is still rising daily for the new number of cases.
Lies, all the media houses are advertising channels for BJP. Why is the natural disaster of west bengal not getting headlines !!!