Economists propose ending lockdowns by releasing the young first
As global go nments grapple with how to unlock economies without triggering another round of coronavirus infections, some economists are recommending that age should be used to determine who returns to work first.
While the freezing of activity from Mumbai to Chicago is credited with saving lives, the downsides are evident in the International Monetary Fund’s warning of the worst global recession in almost a century.
How to balance lives and livelihoods is drawing the attention of economists, and a growing cohort propose authorities should first remove restrictions on those deemed at lowest risk of death or hospital admittance from the infection.
That means the youngest are activated first, while more venerable groups remain sheltered until either a vaccine can be administered or the rest of the population develops sufficient immunity. One calculation of fatalities from the disease by Imperial College in London is for 0.03% of those in their 20s, compared to over 5% among the over 70s.
“Age- and morbidity-related restrictions would allow a rapid return of economic activity,” according to David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co in London. “If mixing between the elderly and the less vulnerable younger populations can be sufficiently reduced, the economy and society can get back to work quickly.”
His research suggests go nments could ease restrictions on those under 60 and without additional risk factors, yet still limit deaths and pressure on health systems.
Economists from Warwick University argue that releasing the more than 4 million British residents in their 20s who do not live with their parents could have “substantial economic and societal benefits without enormous health costs.” They propose the idea could then be applied to other countries.
However, focusing on young workers is not without risks, aside from the potential threat to their health.
Many countries have already eased restrictions on education and some businesses in an effort to gradually reopen economies. One strategy proposed by University College London suggests a staggered release of the U.K. lockdown over six weeks with strict social distancing, compulsory masks on public transport and varying business opening hours to avoid rush hour crowding.
Ultimately however, any proposal by economists is ultimately about devising the optimal stopgap that maximizes growth with the fewest possible deaths until a solution to the virus is found.
A vaccine would be one such a solution. At least three projects for that are now in human testing, according to the World Health Organization. Yet even in a best-case scenario, developing a safe and effective inoculation may take at least a year.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49773.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
THE GOVERNMENT NOT CLEAR NOR STATES READY TO GRADUAL EASING OF THE OPENING OF INDUSTRIES N REGULAR BUSINESSES ..... THEY HAVE IDENTIFIED RED ZONES BUT NO SPECIAL TREATMENT..... EVEN THE INDUSTRY N WORKERS MAY B IN THE RED ZONE....
Why no govt in the world ever gets the bright idea of exposing all these pseudo economists to the dreaded VIRUS first then see how do they cope up before taking a further decision.
In India it is the younger group that is most effected! According to Statista, the age group between 21 to 30 and 31 to 40 years old were most infected age group. This indicates, they will be more likely to spread virus.
据统计，21 - 30岁和31 - 40岁是感染人数最多的年龄组。这表明，年轻人更有可能传播病毒。
Govt. thinks that by shutting. down country, you can save lives which is foolish idea. You cannot permanently stay at home and escape death. You have to go out and face the nature and try to live as long it allows you to live on earth.
Yes you are v v right. It's better not to die with hunger or poverty which is visible due to lockdown
How can India use age based criteria when Old and Young are all living in the same house ? Wont the Young come and infect the elders in their home ? This is not some rich country where young are independent and staying separate from families.
The writer of this article should be send first to work. The western theories are not going to work in India sir.
Extension of Lockdown beyond 30-40 days exposes inefficiency of the state Govt
release this author for work first
Lalit Kumar Das
all recommended precautions should be taken. The least vulnerable, stronger immunity should be out first.
INDIA Constitution gives fre m to move and work without fear. Now decision must be taken by India Citizen. If an INDIAN want to see his family and elders healthy then he she must maintain social distancing and proper sanitization. Bcos of INDIA Constitution govt or any govt agency can't stop you. Its upto you. WHAT YOU WANT HEALTHY FAMILY OR HOSPITAL WITH ISOLATION. PICK WISELY
in India maximum senior citizens are roaming around in lockdown without any reason
fear will linger around,till the time vaccine is found
Before opening make sure India has enough medicine stocks across the country at reasonable prices, masks have also become costlier than bottle of Rum
Young will bring viruses and give to oldest this will happen . so older people must isolate themselves from younger in home.
You are right. In fact in unless you stay in 3-4 bedroom houses its not even feasible in joint family its not even possible.
India should follow this startegy.But instead of waiting for a Vaccine,which experts say is NOT possible against this Virus,Interferon Alpha 2 B should be used to treat thew patients.Blood Plasma Therapy for the critically ill can be followed as successfully demonstrated in Delhi.In the USA 5 have been saved by Blood Plasma Therapy.
印度应该效仿这种策略。与其等待疫苗，不如用干扰素Alpha 2 B来治疗患者。在德里，针对危重症患者，血浆疗法已经成功了。在美国，血浆疗法救了5个人。
Don't worry Modi listens to nobody