Covid-19: A 'herd immunity' strategy could actually work in youthful India
NEW DELHI: Controversial given the high risk of deaths, a coronavir s strategy discarded by the UK is being touted as the solution for young countries like India.
The herd immunity strategy, which would allow a majority of the population to gain resistance to the vir s by becoming infected and then recovering, could result in less economic devastation and human suffering than restrictive lockdowns designed to stop the vir s's spread, a number of experts have begun to argue in the nation of 1.3 billion people.
"No country can afford a prolonged period of lockdowns, and least of all a country like India," said Jayaprakash Muliyil, a prominent Indian epidemiologist. "You may be able to reach a point of herd immunity without infection really catching up with the elderly. And when the herd immunity reaches a sufficient number the outbreak will stop, and the elderly are also safe."
A team of researchers at Princeton University and the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy, a public health advocacy group based in New Delhi and Washington, has identified India as a place where this strategy could be successful because its disproportionately young population would face less risk of hospitalization and death.
They said allowing the vir s to be unleashed in a controlled way for the next seven months would give 60% of the country's people immunity by November, and thus halt the disease.
Mortality could be limited as the vir s spreads compared to European nations like Italy given that 93.5% of the Indian population is younger than 65, they said, though no death toll projections were released.
The radical proposal underscores the challenges that poorer develo countries — including nations like Indonesia and some in sub-Saharan Africa — face in curbing the epidemic using the lockdown measures that have been adopted by advanced economies.
The impossibility of social distancing in crowded living conditions like in many cities and villages in India, the lack of testing kits to detect infections and the human suffering that occurs in lockdowns suggests a different path may be needed in these places.
To do this, the Princeton and CDDEP team recommends lifting India's strict lockdown — which has been extended to May 3 — and letting most of the population younger than 60 return to normal life, though social distancing still would be encouraged, masks would be required and large gatherings would be banned. The reopening would be accompanied by an effort to test as many people as possible and isolate confirmed and suspected cases.
The go nment of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given no indication it plans to adopt such a strategy.
Yet the go nment has d out criteria that effectively rations coronavir s tests, limiting them to the very sick or most at risk. Critics who suspect the disease has spread much more widely than the offi al numbers suggest say the go nment's restrictive criteria amounts to allowing the disease to spread.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49753.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
The idea is totally ridiculous. Essentially it proposes survival of the fittest
Eventually corona will infect everyone.
Muralidhar M S
This is not a ridiculous idea. This is the thing that India needs. You will be less scared if you understand the difference between Case fatality rate and Infection fatality rate. You look like a Senior Citizen. Start doing some Aerobic exercises or Yoga everyday, along with Pranay and Meditation. You will be safe, Coronavir s or whatever Vir s will come in future.
This is complete blah blah with little or no medical research at the back of it. I would like to place all those advocating herd immunity strategy at the forefront of contagion hotspots and let them volunteer to die. Because that is what they are advocating - that a large % dies for the common good. Nonsense.
Buddy, heard immunity is well tested strategy and it always works. Just ask yourself, did you ever take any vaccine for influenza? Did you ever take any vaccine for common flu / cold? Nope. Did you die till now? NO. How did you get immune? Heard immunity will provide essential plasma for the treatment of those who cannot fight COVID-19. There is no option in hand but to open lockdown strategically. If people dont get immune, more and more will die.
How can they even think of herd immunity in a country like India where majority of the people live with their old parents. Tons of people are malnourished & below poverty line. Why can't they also release the number of projected deaths alongwith this article?
Herd immunity starts working when more than 50% of the people are infected with vir s which effectively means more than 650 million people in country like India will need to infected. Even at half of current fatality rate of 3%, approx 10 million people will die.
herd immunity is best strategy for resource limited country like india.
It is shocking that a responsible media house like Times propgating such a theory which has no proven base.
Supported by specialists.. who counsel the Gt.. so don't blame media friend
First let them try IN USA and , then preach it to others
Herd immunity is achieved by vaccination, not by letting millions die ..
Infect all po iticians and corrupt go nment offi als and remove their headcount from population. India will be fine then
most stupid idea no one know who will recover and who will not? seriously work on vaccine and have it ready asap.....
People suggesting this should start the experiment with their own children first.
Herd immunity would mean 75 crores to be infected, 15 crores to be treated may in ICU and 1.5 crores deaths.
Anand Arora Arora
Is it Papua's idea
The biggest problem with this approach is that all old people and some middle level people with some disease like sugar will die. Can we afford that?
it is better way of saying mass killing
What a rubbish article, without knowing any facts and ground reality.