Without lockdown, virus could have affected 8.2 lakh by April 15: Analysis
NEW DELHI: A day after it said that there was no such ICMR study, the health ministry said on Saturday that there was a “statistical rate of growth-based analysis” that without a lockdown and containment measures, Covid-19 cases could be projected to spiral to 8.2 lakh by April 15, registering a 41% cumulative growth rate.
Though the health ministry had on Friday denied reports about an ICMR study that the ministry of external affairs had referred to in a briefing to foreign media, it clarified that the chart was a statistical analysis. However, it maintained that it was not a report or a study. The projection, explained by Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in the health ministry, takes into account containment measures alone, without implementation of the lockdown.
The statistical analysis also calculated that in a scenario without a lockdown, a total of 1.2 lakh positive cases could have been reported by April 15 if the peak growth rate of the disease at 28.9%, seen before the lockdown was initiated, had sustained. At these rates, as of April 11, the cases could have been 2 lakh with just a lockdown and around 44,000 with only containment measures, in keeping with the two projections.
Agarwal’s comments were a partial walkback on the ministry’s position on Friday. The go nment said that it was a statistical exercise.
In the current situation, after the implementation of the lockdown as well as stringent containment measures, India is witnessing a significantly lower number of positive cases at 7,447 as of Saturday, Agarwal said highlighting the importance of the measures and social distancing.
“India’s response to the coronavirus pandemic has always been pre-emptive and proactive to the extent of being overprepared. We have taken a graded approach depending on the situation,” Agarwal said.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49686.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
Absolutely correct, india is a densely populated country and if lock down had not been imposed,it would have worse condition now
For all critics, I want to suggest to watch any news channel with international news on Coronavirus and try to understand the reason behind the worse condition of Italy, America, Spain, France etc. Then write some comments here
Balant lies created to mislead people. You've hardly done any test it has already affected millions of people. How many silent deaths are happening around no one has bothered as people are busy clapping hands and burning fireworks
Where do you get such baseless numbers from.
our PM Narendra modi is protecting Indians like a Giant wall .....
If there was action in Jan we would habe zero cases..
The Coronavirus death rate for 80 years olds is 14.8%. Patients ages 70 to 79 years have a death rate of 8% and those ages 60 to 69 have a death rate of 3.6%. (Younger age groups have lower death rates; 1.3% for those 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39.)
80岁以上患者的新冠肺炎病死率为14.8%。70 - 79岁患者的病死率为8%，60 - 69岁患者的病死率为3.6%。
Yes it is a correct statement that without lockdown virus could have affected 8.2lakh
What will happen after lockdown, virus will die??
All people across board need to cooperate in enforcing lockdown
Bravo India. Hail Mr Modi. This is World Statesmanship.
Nitin Rao Chandavar
After the lockdown is removed, this figure will reach the estimated one's if the authorities so not sanitize the cities as done in other countries for killing the viruses.
Subba Iyer Mani
Excellent work by the govt to arrest the spread of the virus.
Preventive measure have been taken at right time by govt
Absolutely there would've been more than millions infected if lockdown was imposed
True, but lockdown alone will not help. We need to increase speed of testing. We are not doing testing as aggressively as other nations and then only we will come to know real state of affairs. For instance, even if we do statewide comparison within india, while Maharashtra and kerala reporting high numbers since they are doing testing at higher frequency while orissa, West bengal, bihar doing at a very slow pace and hence they are reporting surprisingly low numbers.
All are making good efforts. Let's continue with that.
Salute to all the doctors nurses sanitary workers police media and many others for doing
It's absolutely true, without lock down the situation is worse.
What a joke! India wouldn’t have even tested half that number by April 15.
Its not even started, take credit when it is over, lovings in fools world?
No one can definitely predict ! It's statistics, not a clear mathematics. Now please inform us whether the virus will die after 15 days ? That's is simply impossible. If the virus continue spreading like this then after 15 days whether it will be extended by another 15 days ? Where is the end ? The negative effect of lockdown will be felt only after the lockdown is over. It's the poor who are going to suffer.
Venkatesh Babu KR
Whoever takes credit, but Modi and his blind bhakts have to pay for this mess.
Lockdown was essential. Delhi allowed jamat during virus time, ignoring all safety norms.
Great decision by the PM