Could Donald Trump's maiden India visit become all show, no business?
Before embarking on his two-day visit to India, US President Donald Trump has dashed hopes of a meaningful trade deal between the two countries. American and Indian negotiators have blamed the other side for a lackadaisical response and for shifting the goalposts respectively.
High tariffs and trade deficit with India are a constant refrain of Trump’s bashing of India as ‘tariffs king’. He has accused the country of denying American products an ‘equitable and reasonable access’ to its markets. The visiting president has assured his voters that he will ‘talk business’ with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
PM Narendra Modi should use the occasion to talk business with his guest by conveying some relevant facts. India does not figure even among the top 10 countries, which includes Ireland and Malaysia, with which the US runs trade deficits. For 2019, the US trade deficit with India at $23.3 billion dwarfs the corresponding figure for China -- $346 billion.
The Trump go nment’s aggressive stance seems to be guided by a belief that trade is more consequential for India than the US. The latter is the second largest trading partner of the former, but India comes a distant eighth among the US’s largest trading partners. This is a rather short-sighted view. India is already the third largest market and its economic heft is, despite a slowdown, growing by the year.
India is generating Big Data – the proverbial ‘new oil’ -- in super abundance. The country is witnessing unparalleled growth in mobile data fueled by low-cost connectivity enjoyed by 800 million users. Several US tech giants, like Facebook and Google, are already earning substantial profits using Indian data. In the coming years, a much larger number of US firms will need access to Indian data to create jobs and wealth in their country in activities such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, data analytics, and nanotechnology. Potential gains from cooperation are many.
But there are serious differences. The Trump go nment demands easy access for its dairy and agriculture products to 1.3 billion Indian consumers. It is opposed to the Indian measures to make healthcare affordable -- price caps on drugs and medical devices like cardiac stents and knee implants. Differences also abound over rules for data localisation and e-commerce.
These issues have resulted in trade skirmishes. It started with the US raising the import duty on Indian steel and aluminium products -- as ‘national security measures’ against a country that’s supposed to be its ‘strategic partner’! India retaliated by dragging the US to the dispute settlement mechanism of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and increased duties on import of 29 products from the US, including almonds, walnuts, and pulses.
To ratchet up the pressure, from June 2019, the US suspended India's special status under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) that provided duty-free access to $5.6 billion worth of Indian exports. Admittedly, the concession was revoked in response to the ‘failure of the Indian go nment to provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets in numerous sectors’. In keeping with his reputation as transactional leader, just before embarking on his India sojourn, Trump has classified India as a ‘developed nation’ to eliminate the concessional treatment to India in countervailing duty investigations against its exports.
Trump and Modi should use the visit to work out a framework for addressing the differences in the spirit of give and take. Their decisions will have real impact on people’s lives and long-term economic consequences in areas ranging from agriculture to health to manufacturing, digital trade, ecommerce and big data.
For a start, the two countries should restore the status quo ante by reversing increases in duties imposed on each other, and withdrawing complaints at WTO. The US should restore GSP status for India. The gains from it can be used by India to buy US goods, including oil and gas.
The Indian side should also realise that a flexible policy can work better for the country. For instance, not all drugs and medical devices like stents and implants are the same. It is not necessary to have price cap on all. There are standard-use products and devices, and their more advanced versions, which must be differentiated by price to incentivise drug and device companies to bring their latest products to the Indian market. Otherwise, India will lose out on the latest drugs and techniques in healthcare.
One possibility is to go for an across-the-board trade margin rationalisation in view of the costs and expenses incurred by producers. The import duties on high-end Harley-Davidson motorcycles can also be slashed without adversely affecting the domestic motorbike industry.
The agriculture and dairy sectors are complex. India needs to protect the livelihoods of some 500 million dependent on these sectors who are no match for their US counterparts. Besides, there are cultural sensitivities. India demands certification that dairy imports are not sourced from the milk of animals raised on bovine extracts-based feed. This is unacceptable to the US. One possibility is quota-restricted imports with clear package labelling regarding cattle feed. India should be open to import of more fruits such as blueberries and cherries.
Finally, in its own interest, India should further liberalise foreign direct investment (FDI) norms and facilitate investment by US companies in infrastructure, storage capacity, manufacturing plants and insurance sectors. Addressing these and other issues such as intellectual property rights (IPR) will require the two sides to work in the spirit of cooperation befitting the world's two largest democracies.
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49403.html 译者：Joyceliu
Big Data is new oil. Without India, American giants, like Facebook and Google are nothing. They are already earning substantial profits using Indian data. In the coming years, a much larger number of US firms will need access to Indian data to create jobs and wealth in their country in activities such as artificial intelligence robotics, Internet of Things all depend on India.
Yes, Trump was fetish by high tariffs and trade deficit with India are a constant refrain of Trump’s bashing of India as tariffs king. But now he says India is his greatest friend. How can you work with such a person?
You give him some business and Trump loves you.
Ok. Trump already indicated that the talks on this might slowdown if he did not get a good deal. I can see why things are difficult. In any case, they don't believe in consultations. I think, this visit is mainly for defense deals.
Written with lucidity and the article identifies the concrete measures. Coming from the Pharma sector I liked the recommendation for using across-the-board trade margin rationalisation in view of the costs and expenses incurred by producers. Overall a good article. But you are silent of import of animal products like meat. Why?
It is a well written article. Easy to understand and persuasive. However, I don't agree with your arguments on Pharma sector.
You have a point professor, Trump a rather short-sighted view. But I disagree that India is already the third largest market and its economic hefty. You are right about India generating Big Data in super abundance. The country is witnessing unparalleled growth in mobile data fueled by low-cost connectivity enjoyed by 800 million users. Several US tech giants, like Facebook and Google, are already earning substantial profits using Indian data.
In addition to be a "professor", the author is also an idiot. While there is indeed a case for the rationalization of trade ties with the US, however, the Indian medical and pharma industry should be protected? Why? Because the size of the population that actually cannot afford the extortionist prices that US (and European) medical and pharma concerns charges (going by what they charge their own populations). I agree that India should have an open and liberal economic posture, but that does not mean disadvantaging vulnerable sections of the population.
It is unlikely that Trump will yield anything at all, especially in the trade domain. He is a pure businessman politician and will not likely help any other nation. However, it is likely that he will play India favorably to balance the game with China, especially in terms of defence stance.
Modi and Media both are over obsessed with Trump - he and his family have visited India many times during his Pre Presidency era and seen the BAD Poverty side of India - then why this waste of make-over expenses at the cost of tax payers money. Modi wishes to live his life as India's PM but will go down the history as the most non-performing PM like MMS. Indian has lost 20 years (2 generations) of bad economics and high unemployment.
Trump is unpredictable.
Finally, in its own interest, India should further liberalise foreign direct investment (FDI) norms and facilitate investment by US companies in infrastructure, storage capacity, manufacturing plants and insurance sectors??? what the hell??India open everything to US & WHAT IT WILL GET??
Many US President have visited India in the past,what is outcome?
both are best at jumlas.
When two Image hungry leaders meet in a country likes and gets influenced by pomp and show and Budget is no constraint. It is expected to be a show of highest order.
Let the USA and India retaliate each other on trade. USA would ban Indian products and Indian will stop the USA companies working in Indian. Let's see who is having more loss.
You are very negative.
Trump is doing election rally for him as well as for modi
Idiot like his illiterate friend believes that India was born in 2014 to make this inconsequential costume drama greatest events for India has seen. (He did not even know that India China share common border). Who would tell idiot that this country had seen birth of 3 great religions to start with.
Why this evangelical terrorist dominated media is SO NEGATIVE and all the time accusative, casting aspersions and wrong motives for each and every action of ruling go nment? After all the go nment is elected by people? We have had enough of CON looter raj for almost 65 years? Why not allow alternative to prove itself? All the time doubting and predicting negative fall out even before the event starts clearly shows BIAS. IF THERE IS A SINGLE FORCE THAT DIVIDES, WEAKENS, DESTROYS INDIA , IT IS NONE OTHER THAN THE evangelical terrorist media.
Let’s wait and watch who wins and who looses.
WHy are you so negative?
Nasir Ali Zaidi
At the moment Trump is in commanding position and India appears in a complying position. Trade deal ,it is clear as per the US statement prior to potus visit , is of the agenda during the summit. If a rabbit is pulled off from the magicians box is different. Defense and terrorism on the record and other isses like Kashmir, CAA and NCR of the record or couched in diplomatic color to avoid embarrassment to the host. Defense deal are very much on agenda . India under the prime minister Shri Modi is definitely going all out to pamper his bloated ego . The activities going on hectic space in Ahmedabad and Agra are pointer to that. In nutshell Trump will get more .
Most of the Ram Singh's views are rational. There should be quid pro quo with US on trade matters. Making them happy on defence purchases should be used thoroughly in India's favour. Also some dairy products which are also procured from NZ and Europe should be given access, which India do not even bothers to produce. One more strong message need to be conveyed subtly to US President that India's trade with US is miniscule and shouldn't deserve conrnering.
No more h1b visas for IT professionals. America must and will send thousands of data related jobs to India. Collect, manage, clean and maintain data in India not in America. This is expected to be in Trillions over the next 20-30yrs and will pull people out of poverty. In return America will cherry pick and take the best and brightest from our colleges. America will sell its products and services in India freeely killing and closing mom and pops, reliance, Tata, bata and other Marwadi business that ruined India.
不再向IT专业人员发放H1B签证。美国必须而且将向印度提供数千份与数据相关的工作。在印度而非美国收集、管理、清理和维护数据。预计在未来20-30年内，这将以万亿计，并将使人们摆脱贫困。作为回报，美国将从我们的大学中挑选最优秀、最聪明的学生，在印度出售其产品和服务，随意击垮mom and pops，信实，塔塔，巴塔等。
Jumla show at taxpayers cost.
Rising India..Largest DemocracyLargest Population of 1.3 Plus billionsRising Middle class800 million youth.There is a huge demand for everything..Today, educated ..smart. skilled youth force in Cloud, 3D, Robotics, A.I.iot,stealth, Laser. Drones..
Impossible to not have business - both leaders will get into trouble for just wasting tax payers money
Show must go on, after all it is a circus.
Guess you're performing at the stadium showcasing your acrobatic skills?
The show has still to go on. President and PM know it well.Likelihood of business is not there but India and the US will have some common rapport.
try trade with China. china shut Indians. no exporting china