三泰虎

特朗普对印度的首访会变成毫无意义的过场秀吗

Could Donald Trump's maiden India visit become all show, no business?

唐纳德•特朗普对印度的首访会变成毫无意义的过场秀吗?

Before embarking on his two-day visit to India, US President Donald Trump has dashed hopes of a meaningful trade deal between the two countries. American and Indian negotiators have blamed the other side for a lackadaisical response and for shifting the goalposts respectively.

在开始对印度进行为期两天的访问之前,美国总统唐纳德•特朗普粉碎了两国之间达成有意义贸易协议的希望。美国和印度的谈判代表都指责对方应对不力、临时变卦。

High tariffs and trade deficit with India are a constant refrain of Trump’s bashing of India as ‘tariffs king’. He has accused the country of denying American products an ‘equitable and reasonable access’ to its markets. The visiting president has assured his voters that he will ‘talk business’ with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

特朗普一直拿高关税和对印度的贸易逆差抨击印度,称其为“关税之王”。他指责印度拒绝让美国产品公平合理地进入印度市场。来访的美国总统向选民保证,他会跟总理纳伦德拉·莫迪“谈生意”。

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PM Narendra Modi should use the occasion to talk business with his guest by conveying some relevant facts. India does not figure even among the top 10 countries, which includes Ireland and Malaysia, with which the US runs trade deficits. For 2019, the US trade deficit with India at $23.3 billion dwarfs the corresponding figure for China -- $346 billion.

莫迪总理应该利用这个机会和特朗普交涉,提醒一些相关的事实。印度都没能进入贸易逆差前10名之列,前10名中包含了爱尔兰和马来西亚。2019年,美国对印度233亿美元的贸易逆差在美国对中国的3460亿美元面前相形见绌。

The Trump go nment’s aggressive stance seems to be guided by a belief that trade is more consequential for India than the US. The latter is the second largest trading partner of the former, but India comes a distant eighth among the US’s largest trading partners. This is a rather short-sighted view. India is already the third largest market and its economic heft is, despite a slowdown, growing by the year.

特朗普政府的激进立场似乎基于这样一种信念:贸易对印度的影响比对美国更大。印度是美国第二大贸易伙伴,但相较于美国最大的贸易伙伴,印度还落后8位。这是一种相当短视的观点。印度已经是第三大市场,尽管增速放缓,但其经济影响力仍在逐年增长。

India is generating Big Data – the proverbial ‘new oil’ -- in super abundance. The country is witnessing unparalleled growth in mobile data fueled by low-cost connectivity enjoyed by 800 million users. Several US tech giants, like Facebook and Google, are already earning substantial profits using Indian data. In the coming years, a much larger number of US firms will need access to Indian data to create jobs and wealth in their country in activities such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, data analytics, and nanotechnology. Potential gains from cooperation are many.

印度正在创造大数据——众所周知的“新石油”。印度的移动数据正以前所未有的速度增长,这得益于8亿用户享受的低成本网络连通。Facebook和谷歌等几家美国科技巨头已经利用印度的数据获取了巨额利润。未来几年,更多的美国公司将需要访问印度的数据,以便在人工智能(AI)、机器人技术、物联网(IoT)、云计算、数据分析和纳米技术等领域为美国创造就业和财富。合作的潜在收益有很多。

But there are serious differences. The Trump go nment demands easy access for its dairy and agriculture products to 1.3 billion Indian consumers. It is opposed to the Indian measures to make healthcare affordable -- price caps on drugs and medical devices like cardiac stents and knee implants. Differences also abound over rules for data localisation and e-commerce.

但它们之间存在严重的差异。特朗普政府要求为13亿印度消费者增加奶制品和农产品的出口额。它不肯为印度降低医疗费用的措施提供协助——对药物和医疗设备(如心脏支架和膝盖植入物)设置价格上限。在数据本地化和电子商务规则方面也存在大量分歧。

These issues have resulted in trade skirmishes. It started with the US raising the import duty on Indian steel and aluminium products -- as ‘national security measures’ against a country that’s supposed to be its ‘strategic partner’! India retaliated by dragging the US to the dispute settlement mechanism of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and increased duties on import of 29 products from the US, including almonds, walnuts, and pulses.

这些问题导致了双方的贸易摩擦。首先,美国提高了对印度钢铁和铝产品的进口关税,作为一项针对印度的“国家安全措施”,而印度本来应该是美国的“战略伙伴”!作为报复,印度将美国拖入世界贸易组织(WTO)争端解决机制,并提高了对美国进口的29种产品征收的关税,其中包括杏仁、核桃和豆类。

To ratchet up the pressure, from June 2019, the US suspended India's special status under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) that provided duty-free access to $5.6 billion worth of Indian exports. Admittedly, the concession was revoked in response to the ‘failure of the Indian go nment to provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets in numerous sectors’. In keeping with his reputation as transactional leader, just before embarking on his India sojourn, Trump has classified India as a ‘developed nation’ to eliminate the concessional treatment to India in countervailing duty investigations against its exports.

为了进一步施压,从2019年6月开始,美国暂停了印度在普遍优惠制(GSP)下的特殊地位,这项制度曾为印度价值56亿美元的出口提供免税通道。诚然,由于“印度政府未能在众多领域提供公平、合理的市场准入”,该特许权被撤销了。为了保持他作为交易领袖的声誉,就在他开始印度之旅之前,特朗普将印度列为“发达国家”,以消除在针对印度出口产品的反补贴税调查中对印度的优惠待遇。

Trump and Modi should use the visit to work out a framework for addressing the differences in the spirit of give and take. Their decisions will have real impact on people’s lives and long-term economic consequences in areas ranging from agriculture to health to manufacturing, digital trade, ecommerce and big data.

特朗普和莫迪应该利用这次访问,制定一个框架,本着互谅互让的精神解决分歧。他们的决定将在农业、医疗、制造业、数字贸易、电子商务和大数据等领域,对人们的生活和长期经济后果产生切实影响。

For a start, the two countries should restore the status quo ante by reversing increases in duties imposed on each other, and withdrawing complaints at WTO. The US should restore GSP status for India. The gains from it can be used by India to buy US goods, including oil and gas.

首先,两国应取消对彼此加征的关税,撤回在世贸组织的申诉,恢复原状。美国应该恢复印度的普惠制地位。印度可以利用它的收益购买美国商品,包括石油和天然气。

The Indian side should also realise that a flexible policy can work better for the country. For instance, not all drugs and medical devices like stents and implants are the same. It is not necessary to have price cap on all. There are standard-use products and devices, and their more advanced versions, which must be differentiated by price to incentivise drug and device companies to bring their latest products to the Indian market. Otherwise, India will lose out on the latest drugs and techniques in healthcare.

印度方面也应该认识到,灵活的政策更有利于印度。例如,并不是所有的药物和医疗设备,如支架和植入物都是一样的。没有必要对所有产品都设定价格上限。有标准的产品和设备,也有更高级的版本,这些产品和设备必须根据价格进行区分,鼓励药品和设备公司将它们的最新产品推向印度市场。否则,印度将在医疗保健方面失去最新的药物和技术。

One possibility is to go for an across-the-board trade margin rationalisation in view of the costs and expenses incurred by producers. The import duties on high-end Harley-Davidson motorcycles can also be slashed without adversely affecting the domestic motorbike industry.

考虑到生产商的成本和支出,一种可能性是对贸易利润率进行全面的合理化调整。对高端哈雷-戴维森摩托车的进口关税也可以在不影响国内摩托车产业的情况下大幅削减。

The agriculture and dairy sectors are complex. India needs to protect the livelihoods of some 500 million dependent on these sectors who are no match for their US counterparts. Besides, there are cultural sensitivities. India demands certification that dairy imports are not sourced from the milk of animals raised on bovine extracts-based feed. This is unacceptable to the US. One possibility is quota-restricted imports with clear package labelling regarding cattle feed. India should be open to import of more fruits such as blueberries and cherries.

农业和乳制品行业非常复杂。印度需要保护约5亿务农民众的生计,他们无法与美国竞争对手竞争。此外,还有文化敏感性。印度要求美国出具认证,证明进口的奶制品并非来自以牛提取物为成分的饲料饲养的动物。这是美国无法接受的。有一种可能是配额限制进口,在牛饲料的包装上明确标识出来。印度应该开放更多水果的进口,比如蓝莓和樱桃。

Finally, in its own interest, India should further liberalise foreign direct investment (FDI) norms and facilitate investment by US companies in infrastructure, storage capacity, manufacturing plants and insurance sectors. Addressing these and other issues such as intellectual property rights (IPR) will require the two sides to work in the spirit of cooperation befitting the world's two largest democracies.

最后,为了自身利益,印度应进一步放开外国直接投资规范,并为美国企业在基础设施、仓储能力、制造工厂和保险行业的投资提供便利。解决这些问题以及知识产权等其他问题,需要双方本着与世界上两个最大的皿煮国家相磨合的合作精神。

《印度经济时报》网站读者评论:

译文来源:三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/49403.html      译者:Joyceliu

Simran Kaur

Big Data is new oil. Without India, American giants, like Facebook and Google are nothing. They are already earning substantial profits using Indian data. In the coming years, a much larger number of US firms will need access to Indian data to create jobs and wealth in their country in activities such as artificial intelligence robotics, Internet of Things all depend on India.

大数据是新时代的石油。没有印度,Facebook和谷歌这样的美国巨头就什么都不是。他们已经利用印度的数据获得了可观的利润。未来几年,更多的美国公司将需要访问印度的数据,以在他们的国家创造就业和财富,比如人工智能机器人、物联网等活动都将依赖印度。

 

Tanmay Banerji

Yes, Trump was fetish by high tariffs and trade deficit with India are a constant refrain of Trump’s bashing of India as tariffs king. But now he says India is his greatest friend. How can you work with such a person?

没错,特朗普厌恶高关税和对印度的贸易赤字,这是特朗普抨击印度为关税之王的一贯论调。但现在他说印度是他最好的朋友。跟这种人该怎么相处呢?

 

Hemant

You give him some business and Trump loves you.

你给他送点生意,特朗普就会爱你。

 

Sujata Das

Ok. Trump already indicated that the talks on this might slowdown if he did not get a good deal. I can see why things are difficult. In any case, they don't believe in consultations. I think, this visit is mainly for defense deals.

好的。特朗普已经表示,如果不能达成满意的协议,有关这个问题的谈判可能就得放缓。我能理解为什么事情很难。无论如何,他们不相信协商。我认为,这次访问主要目的在于国防交易。

 

Duraisamy K

Written with lucidity and the article identifies the concrete measures. Coming from the Pharma sector I liked the recommendation for using across-the-board trade margin rationalisation in view of the costs and expenses incurred by producers. Overall a good article. But you are silent of import of animal products like meat. Why?

文章思路清晰,也给出了具体措施。我来自制药行业,我喜欢这个建议,即考虑到生产商的成本和支出,要让贸易利润率合理化。总的来说是一篇好文章。但是你对进口动物产品如肉类只字未提。为什么?

 

Kavita Dahiya

It is a well written article. Easy to understand and persuasive. However, I don't agree with your arguments on Pharma sector.

这是一篇很好的文章。容易理解,有说服力。但是我不同意你关于制药业的观点。

 

Ravindran G

You have a point professor, Trump a rather short-sighted view. But I disagree that India is already the third largest market and its economic hefty. You are right about India generating Big Data in super abundance. The country is witnessing unparalleled growth in mobile data fueled by low-cost connectivity enjoyed by 800 million users. Several US tech giants, like Facebook and Google, are already earning substantial profits using Indian data.

教授,你说得有道理,特朗普的观点确实很短视。但我不同意印度已经是世界第三大市场和经济强国的说法。你说的对,印度产出了大数据。印度的移动数据正以前所未有的速度增长,这得益于8亿用户享受的低成本网络连接。Facebook和谷歌等几家美国科技巨头已经在利用印度数据获取巨额利润。

 

Kristal Soldier

In addition to be a "professor", the author is also an idiot. While there is indeed a case for the rationalization of trade ties with the US, however, the Indian medical and pharma industry should be protected? Why? Because the size of the population that actually cannot afford the extortionist prices that US (and European) medical and pharma concerns charges (going by what they charge their own populations). I agree that India should have an open and liberal economic posture, but that does not mean disadvantaging vulnerable sections of the population.

除了“教授”身份之外,作者还是一个白痴。然而,尽管确实有理由把印度与美国的贸易关系理性化,但印度的医疗和制药业应该得到保护。为什么?就因为我们负担不起美国(和欧洲)医药和制药业过高价格的人口规模(按照他们对本国人口的收费)。我同意印度应该采取开放和紫游的经济姿态,但这并不意味着剥夺弱势群体的利益。

 

Sadananda Halageri

It is unlikely that Trump will yield anything at all, especially in the trade domain. He is a pure businessman politician and will not likely help any other nation. However, it is likely that he will play India favorably to balance the game with China, especially in terms of defence stance.

特朗普不太可能做出任何让步,尤其是在贸易领域。他是一个纯粹的商人政治家,不太可能帮助任何其他国家。然而,他很可能会与印度正面交锋,以平衡与中国的博弈,尤其是在国防立场方面。

 

Ds

Modi and Media both are over obsessed with Trump - he and his family have visited India many times during his Pre Presidency era and seen the BAD Poverty side of India - then why this waste of make-over expenses at the cost of tax payers money. Modi wishes to live his life as India's PM but will go down the history as the most non-performing PM like MMS. Indian has lost 20 years (2 generations) of bad economics and high unemployment.

莫迪和媒体都过分迷恋特朗普——在他担任总统之前,他和他的家人曾多次访问印度,看到了印度贫穷的一面——那么为什么要以纳税人的钱为代价来浪费这些多余的开支呢?莫迪希望一直顶着印度总理的身份生活,但他将成为历史上最糟糕的总理。印度已经因为糟糕的经济和高失业率失去了20年(两代人)的时间。

 

Subbu India

Trump is unpredictable.

特朗普是不按常理出牌的人。

 

Ravindrak

Finally, in its own interest, India should further liberalise foreign direct investment (FDI) norms and facilitate investment by US companies in infrastructure, storage capacity, manufacturing plants and insurance sectors??? what the hell??India open everything to US & WHAT IT WILL GET??

最后,为了自身利益,印度应进一步放开外国直接投资规范,并为美国企业在基础设施、仓储能力、制造工厂和保险行业的投资提供便利。这是什么鬼? ?印度向美国开放一切,能得到什么呢?

 

Jagdip Vaishnav

Many US President have visited India in the past,what is outcome?

很多美国总统过去都访问过印度,结果如何呢?

 

Jaspinder Singh

both are best at jumlas.

两个人都很擅长瞎比比。

 

Aaaa Bbbb

When two Image hungry leaders meet in a country likes and gets influenced by pomp and show and Budget is no constraint. It is expected to be a show of highest order.

两个死要面子的领导人在一个国家见面,会喜欢并受到盛大表演和预算的影响。这将是一场最高等级的表演秀。

 

Himansu

Let the USA and India retaliate each other on trade. USA would ban Indian products and Indian will stop the USA companies working in Indian. Let's see who is having more loss.

让美国和印度在贸易上互相伤害吧。美国禁止印度产品,印度就不让美国公司在印度开展业务。来啊,看看谁的损失更大呀。

 

BewareYrDNA2YrChild

You are very negative.

你的文章很消极。

 

Bhojmanb

Trump is doing election rally for him as well as for modi

特朗普正在为他和莫迪举行竞选集会。

 

Nachiket Katha

Idiot like his illiterate friend believes that India was born in 2014 to make this inconsequential costume drama greatest events for India has seen. (He did not even know that India China share common border). Who would tell idiot that this country had seen birth of 3 great religions to start with.

像他的文盲朋友一样,这个白痴认为,印度出生于2014年,是为了让这部无关紧要的古装剧成为印度历史上最伟大的事件。(他甚至不知道印度和中国有着共同的边界)。谁来告诉这个白痴,在这个国家是三大宗教的起源地。

 

WhyPredictSoNegative

Why this evangelical terrorist dominated media is SO NEGATIVE and all the time accusative, casting aspersions and wrong motives for each and every action of ruling go nment? After all the go nment is elected by people? We have had enough of CON looter raj for almost 65 years? Why not allow alternative to prove itself? All the time doubting and predicting negative fall out even before the event starts clearly shows BIAS. IF THERE IS A SINGLE FORCE THAT DIVIDES, WEAKENS, DESTROYS INDIA , IT IS NONE OTHER THAN THE evangelical terrorist media.

为什么这个福音派恐怖分子控制的媒体如此消极,总是一味指责,对执政政府的每一个举措都要诽谤?毕竟政府是由人民选出来的呀!65年来我们受够了国大党的洗劫。为什么不让其他人来证明自己呢?在事件开始之前就怀疑、预测负面的结果,显然是种偏见。如果说有一股力量分裂、削弱、摧毁了印度,那一定是福音派恐怖主义媒体。

 

Kinnu

Let’s wait and watch who wins and who looses.

让我们拭目以待,看谁赢谁输。

 

NegativeAttitude

WHy are you so negative?

你怎么这么消极?

 

Nasir Ali Zaidi

At the moment Trump is in commanding position and India appears in a complying position. Trade deal ,it is clear as per the US statement prior to potus visit , is of the agenda during the summit. If a rabbit is pulled off from the magicians box is different. Defense and terrorism on the record and other isses like Kashmir, CAA and NCR of the record or couched in diplomatic color to avoid embarrassment to the host. Defense deal are very much on agenda . India under the prime minister Shri Modi is definitely going all out to pamper his bloated ego . The activities going on hectic space in Ahmedabad and Agra are pointer to that. In nutshell Trump will get more .

目前,特朗普处于主导地位,而印度似乎处于服从地位。根据美国总统访美之前的声明,贸易协议显然是此次峰会的议程之一。如果把兔子从魔术师的盒子里拽出来,情况就不同了。国防协议已经提上日程。在总理莫迪的领导下,印度不遗余力地纵容自己膨胀的自尊心。艾哈迈达巴德和阿格拉的紧张忙碌的太空活动就是一个例子。简而言之,特朗普将得到更多。

 

Hemant Pisat

Most of the Ram Singh's views are rational. There should be quid pro quo with US on trade matters. Making them happy on defence purchases should be used thoroughly in India's favour. Also some dairy products which are also procured from NZ and Europe should be given access, which India do not even bothers to produce. One more strong message need to be conveyed subtly to US President that India's trade with US is miniscule and shouldn't deserve conrnering.

拉姆•辛格的多数观点是理性的。在贸易问题上应该与美国交换条件。让他们在国防采购上满意了,就能对印度有利。此外,一些从新西兰和欧洲采购的乳制品也应该被允许进入印度,印度并不产这些商品。还有一个更强烈的信息需要微妙地传达给美国总统,那就是印度与美国的贸易是微不足道的,不必烦忧。

 

Simple

No more h1b visas for IT professionals. America must and will send thousands of data related jobs to India. Collect, manage, clean and maintain data in India not in America. This is expected to be in Trillions over the next 20-30yrs and will pull people out of poverty. In return America will cherry pick and take the best and brightest from our colleges. America will sell its products and services in India freeely killing and closing mom and pops, reliance, Tata, bata and other Marwadi business that ruined India.

不再向IT专业人员发放H1B签证。美国必须而且将向印度提供数千份与数据相关的工作。在印度而非美国收集、管理、清理和维护数据。预计在未来20-30年内,这将以万亿计,并将使人们摆脱贫困。作为回报,美国将从我们的大学中挑选最优秀、最聪明的学生,在印度出售其产品和服务,随意击垮mom and pops,信实,塔塔,巴塔等。

 

Kris

Jumla show at taxpayers cost.

这场闹剧将由纳税人买单。

 

Valerian Pereira

Rising India..Largest DemocracyLargest Population of 1.3 Plus billionsRising Middle class800 million youth.There is a huge demand for everything..Today, educated ..smart. skilled youth force in Cloud, 3D, Robotics, A.I.iot,stealth, Laser. Drones..

崛起的印度. .13亿多的人口,正在崛起的中产阶级,8亿年轻人。一切都意味着巨大的需求。现如今,云、3D、机器人、人工智能、物联网、隐形、激光、无人驾驶飞机等领域中有很多受过良好教育的、聪明的、有技术的青年技术人才。

 

Chandanwood

Impossible to not have business - both leaders will get into trouble for just wasting tax payers money

不可能没有生意——两位领导人都会因为浪费纳税人的钱而陷入麻烦。

 

Sk Kapoor

Show must go on, after all it is a circus.

表演必须继续下去,毕竟这是一场马戏表演。

 

Kaushik Parekh

Guess you're performing at the stadium showcasing your acrobatic skills?

我猜你是在体育场表演杂技吧?

 

Sk Kapoor

The show has still to go on. President and PM know it well.Likelihood of business is not there but India and the US will have some common rapport.

这场戏还得继续。总统和总理对此非常了解。不太可能谈成什么协议,但印度和美国将能获得融洽关系。

 

Slug Slurry

try trade with China. china shut Indians. no exporting china

试着跟中国贸易吧。中国拒绝了印度人。对中国的出口是零。

外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/could-donald-trumps-maiden-india-visit-become-all-show-no-business/articleshow/74268895.cms

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