三泰虎

5%的增长是印度的新常态吗?很大程度上取决于预算

ET Online survey: Is 5% growth the new normal for India? A lot hinges on this Budget

印度经济时报在线调查:5%的增长是印度的新常态吗?很大程度上取决于预算

Government's own forecast released in the first week of January showed that the economy is likely to grow at 5% in FY20 — the weakest pace in 11 years. India has not seen such a low GDP score since the 3.1% in FY09, the year when the global financial crisis wrecked economies everywhere.

政府在1月第一周发布的预测显示,2020财年的经济增长率可能为5%,为11年来的最低水平。自2009财年全球金融危机重创全球经济以来,印度的国内生产总值(GDP)还未降至当时3.1%的低点。

The numbers in the first advance estimates of the National Statistical Office (NSO) reflect a steep fall from the 6.8% growth registered in FY19.

国家统计局(NSO)第一次预估的数据反映出,与2019财年6.8%的GDP增长相比,印度经济出现了大幅下滑。

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The latest projections are just a continuation of the declining growth trend witnessed over the past few quarters. GDP growth in the first quarter had come in at 5%, before falling even lower to 4.5% in the second.

最新的预测只是过去几个季度增长下滑趋势的延续。第一季度GDP增长率为5%,第二季度甚至降至4.5%。

Given how things have lately been, how good or bad are the odds of the economy going back to those glory days of 8-9% GDP growth, witnessed not too long ago? Or rather, will India ever go back to that high growth path or will it have to accept 5% GDP as the new normal?

考虑到最近的情况,经济恢复到不久前见证的GDP增长8-9%的辉煌时期的可能性有多大?或者更确切地说,印度是能重回高速增长的道路上,还是不得不接受5%的GDP作为新常态?

This year's ET Online pre-Budget survey put forward this question to its readers. The findings make for interesting reading.

今年的经济时报在线预算前调查向读者提出了这个问题。调查结果值得一读。

Despite all the current travails of the economy, not many people believe that India is a gone case. The view that heady days are over for India did not garner even 12% of the total votes.

尽管目前印度经济经历了种种阵痛,但并没有多少人认为印度的情况会一蹶不振。认为印度好日子已经过去的观点甚至不到12%。

More than 29% of the survey respondents are of the view that there is more steam left in the economy, and that it is just a matter of time before things fall into place again.

超过29%的受访者认为,印度经济还有更多的动力,重回正轨只是时间问题。

According to our in-house analysts, these two groups' confidence on the economy possibly stems in large part from the measures the go nment has introduced over the past few months. The steps taken by Modi go nment include a steep cut in corporate tax rates and an over Rs 1 lakh crore plan for infrastructure, apart from a rescue plan for stalled realty projects. Besides, there are indications that the trade war that kept the world roiled for much of the last year may finally be losing its intensity.

根据我们的内部分析师,这两个群体对经济的信心可能在很大程度上源于政府在过去几个月推出的措施。莫迪政府采取的措施包括大幅降低企业税率,推出了一项超过10万亿卢比的基础设施计划,此外还有一项针对停滞不前的房地产工程的救助计划。此外,有迹象表明,在过去一年的大部分时间里让世界陷入动荡的贸易战,可能最终会偃旗息鼓。

However, considerable challenges still remain. Even if the trade war subsides, it may not lead to major improvements in global trade as the world economy is currently mired in a slowdown. At present, the global growth rate stands at a measly 3%, and economists don't see much upside in the near term.

然而,印度经济仍然存在相当大的挑战。即使贸易战平息下来,也未必能使全球贸易出现重大改善,因为目前世界经济正陷入衰退。目前,全球经济增长率仅为3%,经济学家认为短期内不会有太大的增长。

Also, Modi govt's hands remain fiscally tied, and there is little hope of any material improvement in the situation in the near term.

此外,莫迪政府在财政上仍然束手束脚,短期内也不太可能有任何实质性的改善。

On top of that, all recent monetary policy interventions have failed to yield desired results. Modi govt has stuck to its guns on adhering to its stated fiscal deficit target, but breaching the target seems to be the only practical way to jumpstart growth at this point. Such a fluid, unsettled situation could be the reason why as many as 22% of the participants refrained from giving a definitive answer to our question.

最重要的是,最近所有的货币政策干预都未能产生预期的效果。莫迪政府一直坚持其既定的财政赤字目标,但突破这一目标似乎是目前推动经济增长的唯一现实途径。这种不稳定的、不确定的情况可能是多达22%的参与者没有对我们的问题给出明确答案的原因。

These should ideally include the likes of (a) reforming the investment scene, (b) less and less role of govt in business, and last but not least (c) land and labour reforms. But these could turn out to be a political hot potato that will involve taking large-scale electoral risks.

理想的做法应该包括(a)改革投资环境,(b)政府在商业中的作用越来越小,最后一样重要的(c)土地和劳动力改革。但这可能会变成一个政治烫手山芋,将冒着极大的选举风险。

Can Nirmala Sitharaman do it this time? February 1 will provide the answer.

Nirmala Sitharaman这次能做到吗?

 以下是《印度经济时报》网友评论: 

译文来源:三泰虎     http://www.santaihu.com/49248.html      译者:Joyceliu 

Desmond Mascarenhas

The article reads "The steps taken by Modi go nment include a steep cut in corporate tax rates". By this sentence you are trying to tell people that high and unjust corporate tax were introduced by the previous UPA go nment and as part of the Modi Government reforms it has been reduced. No you are wrong...It was introduced by the Modi Government in the last budget without understanding the implications and was withdrawn in a paNic state. So correcting a mistake is not called reforms.

文章称,“莫迪政府采取的措施包括大幅削减企业税”。通过这句话,你试图告诉人们,高额且不公的公司税是由前国大党政府造成的,作为莫迪政府改革的一部分,已经被削减了。不,你错了……在上一份预算中,莫迪政府在不理解其含义的情况下引入了该政策,并在恐慌状态下撤销了该政策。所以,这叫纠正错误,不叫改革。

 

Murali Krishna Brahmandam

The only thing this budget will do is to drive Rupee stronger and stronger. That will solve most of Indian problems. All the rest are trash - do not waste time writing any other garbage.

这个预算唯一能做的就是让卢比越来越强。这将解决印度的大部分问题。其余的都是垃圾-不要浪费时间写那些垃圾了。

 

MK

wont that impact exports ?

这会影响出口吗?

 

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

there is not much difference between nominal gdp and real gdp as such, growth rate would remain same... because inflation has only changed little... the formula for calculating real gdp is nominal gdp/deflator... INDIA has grown 10.8% in the current year... base year would also be deflated... There is not much difference between nominal gdp and real gdp growth rate when inflation had been on the lowside... in this situation nominal gdp and real gdp would remain same...

名义GDP和实际GDP之间没有太大的区别,增长率将保持不变…因为通货膨胀几乎没有改变…计算实际GDP的公式是名义GDP/平减指数……印度今年增长了10.8%。基准年也会缩水……当通货膨胀处于低水平时,名义GDP和实际GDP增长率之间没有太大的差别。在这种情况下,名义GDP和实际GDP将保持不变……

 

Murali Krishna Brahmandam

Third-rate governance by third-rate go nments by third-rate political parties= 5 percent growth. No hope as long the above continues.

三流政府和三流政党的三流治理= 5%的增长。只要这种情况没有改变,就没有希望。

 

Ashok Agrawal

In other words, income from various investments including rents on leased assets ought to be deducted at source and must not be added to the main sources of income like business, salary,consultancy, profession and so on. Govt is clearly obsessed with tax collections without corresponding efforts to augment people's earnings. Another obsession is apparently economically unproductive freebies. These have widened fiscal deficit. Lack of tight Project monitoring is yet another fragile area which is leading to cost escalation. Govt needs to focus on each high value project implementation which has been centrally assisted. Many state go nments ruled by BJP have lagged behind in effective project implementation. Several ministers and ministries at the centre and in states are performing sub-optimally.BJP has paid heavy political price for the same in all these years.

换句话说,各种投资的收入,包括出租资产的租金,应该从源头上扣除,而不能摊派到企业、工资、咨询、职业等主要收入来源。很明显,政府沉迷于税收而没有相应的努力来增加人们的收入。另一个困扰显然是没有经济效益的免费赠品。这扩大了财政赤字。缺乏严格的项目监测是导致成本上升的另一个脆弱领域。政府需要关注每一个高价值项目的实施,这些项目都得到了中央的帮助。人民党统治下的许多邦政府在项目的有效实施上落后。中央和各邦的一些部长和部委都表现欠佳。这些年来,人民党为此付出了沉重的政治代价。

 

Ashok Agrawal

Fair analysis. A few commentaries may be desirable. Cut in personal income tax is a necessary but not sufficient condition for improving consumer demands. It needs to be supplemented by reasonable returns on personal savings and investments to keep a healthy balance between supply and demand forces. In Indian context, inflation does not capture very high cost escalation on education and health,which makes existing real interest returns on bank deposits and borrowing costs low. Demand for further rate transmission is totally misplaced,as it will further erode households income. Govt policies in several areas are not consistent with avowed objectives of ease of living and investments. The tax on interest incomes,dividends, capital gains across asset classes and time periods should be 10% and collected at source as withholding tax and aforesaid incomes should not be clubbed with main income of people/companies.

分析得很公允。一些评论也许是可取的。降低个人所得税是改善消费者需求的必要条件,但不是充分条件。它需要得到合理的个人储蓄和投资回报的补充,以保持供求力量之间的健康平衡。在印度的情况下,通胀并没有体现出教育和医疗成本的大幅上升,这使得银行存款和借贷成本的实际回报率很低。对利率进一步传导的需求完全是错位的,因为它将进一步损伤家庭收入。政府在一些领域的政策与公开宣称的生活便利和投资目标不一致。利息收入、股息收入、资本利得收入按10%计征,作为代扣所得税和前项收入,不与个人、企业的主要收入挂钩。

 

Melman Const

Govt objective is not GDP %. They are behind hate speech, hinduvita, dividing society etc.

政府的目标不是GDP %。他们的目的在于仇恨言论,印度教,分裂社会等。

 

MK

Liked - shouldn't appeasement politics stop ?

赞—绥靖政策不应该停止吗?

 

Singh Is King

India going back to Vedic rate of growth after Hindu rate of growth.

印度又回到了吠陀的增长速度。

 

Mahem Dwivedi

the survey results tell us everything. More than 75% believe its going to become better, i am a part of that 75%!

调查结果告诉了我们一切。超过75%的人相信它会变得更好,我就是那75%的一分子!

 

Rahul

If Compare to UPA its worst NDA is bad. Worst is coming as World is neglecting INDIA presence

如果与团结进步联盟相比,团结进步联盟是最糟糕的,全国皿煮联盟是糟糕的。最糟糕的情况即将来临,全世界在慢慢忽视印度的存在。

 

Hemant Pisat

Better not to comment on this any further, as enough is debated. They will do just what they want.

最好不要对此做进一步的评论,争论已经够多了。他们会继续做他们想做的事。

 

Ajinkya Taware

It doesn't have to be this way. Only if go nment could spend less, interest rates would go down, inflation would go down. It would increase the credit flow to MSMEs and everybody will benefit by way of job creation.

不一定要这样。只有政府减少开支,利率才会下降,通货膨胀才会下降。它将增加对中小微企业的信贷流动,每个人都将通过创造就业机会而受益。

 外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/et-online-survey-is-5-growth-the-new-normal-for-india-a-lot-hinges-on-this-budget/articleshow/73697871.cms

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