'Modi govt's USD 5-trillion GDP target by 2024 looks unimaginably ambitious'
NEW DELHI: India would need to grow at 9 per cent to achieve the target of USD 5 trillion economy by 2024, which currently looks "unimaginably ambitious", eminent economist R Nagaraj said on Sunday. Soon after assuming office for the second term in May 2019, the Narendra Modi-led go nment set a target of taking the economy to USD 5 trillion over the next five years.
But there have been several clouds over the economy since then, leading many to question the maintainability of the target.
India's GDP is currently estimated at around USD 2.8 trillion.
"The target appears exceptionally daunting, if not impossible, going by the record of the current decade. Last July, as per my estimate, India needed to grow on average at 9 per cent per year in real terms from the fiscal year 2020 to 2024 to achieve the target of 5 trillion dollar economy.
"With the growth rate slumping, the goal looks unimaginably ambitious," Nagaraj, a professor of economics at the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), told .
India's GDP growth is seen dipping to an 11-year low of 5 per cent in the current fiscal, mainly due to poor showing by manufacturing and construction sectors, as per go nment data.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2019-20 was 5 per cent, which further slipped to 4.5 per cent in the subsequent three-month period.
Talking about rising trade tensions, he said the prospects of a reversal in declining trends look very unlikely.
"India's exports to GDP ratio has steadily declined since the early 2010s. So, I don't see any signs of reversal of the declining trends," he said.
Asked whether a fiscal stimulus is the only way out of the slowdown, Nagaraj said that lowering of interest rates over the last few years has not helped and there is a need for fiscal stimulus.
On the upcoming Budget for 2020-21, he said, "I hope the Budget targets a high and rising investment to GDP ratio for the next 3-4 years with credible budgetary figures, and with a bright, implementable strategy in place."
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49179.html 译者：Joyceliu
All need to pull up socks
NaMo has perfected the art of telling an untruth so convincingly that the cattles start believing it totally and vote for him. That is the pity for this country
Kannan V M
What is there to utter something? So many tall claims were made in 2013, like bringing down the petrol price and the exchange rate per dollar to below Rs.45/- within 3 months of coming to power. What has happened subsequently every citizen knows.This too is like that only. This is the need of the hour because the common man is reeling under the burden of soaring prices, job loss and unemployment.
Modi hai to mumkin hai!
Nobody literate believes this target anyway. It's just another Modi-Shah jumla to divert attention from all the real issues this re gie has failed in.
Too pessimist. Modi alone is not driving the economy. An ambition to achieve to be welcome. Please be optimistic.
Optimistic? With this gutter re gie of illiterates, liars, goons and pseudo-nationals?
'Unimaginably Ambitious' ?? Why this play of words.
“难以完成的痴人梦话”? ? 为什么要玩这种文字游戏。
Chander Mohan Kohli
The Target of USD 5-trillion GDP by 2024 is achievable but Modi Govt has to bring stringent Economic Reforms in the areas of Agriculture. India has to be made Super Poer in Manufacturing, Foreign Trade, Land Procurement at a Faster pace and at economical Rates for Infrastructural /Industrial Mega Projects, Corrupt & Non- Performing bureaucracy? Problems are numerous. People of India look forward to Sh.Modi that he shall give his maximum Time & Energy to uplift the Economy.
Caba San Viejo
Modi who is a School- Drop - out don't have Academic Knowledge to achieve anything for India. Such illiterates like Modi, Criminals like Shah had black- mailed Ambedkar to permit them entry in Parliament while writing Constitution. So, Illiterates & Criminals are contesting Election and ruining Indian Economy.
For decades we have been reding why India was not moving forward but when Modi came people had hopes. Modi destroyed the nation with Note Bundi and now too busy destroying the nation with not essential Laws but showing fascist policies. The nation has lost its luster both as a de acy and a peaceful nation. The world has lost any hope of India developing but being lost in anarchy Nation cvannot develope without Law and Orderl
You guys also take Feku so seriously.
As long as Industrialists/Business men/Farmers treat the Bank loans as a bonus that the go nment is duty bound to make to them almost every year, maintenance of current level of GDP itself would be a miracle. In addition the country's unpredictable monsoons and shrinkage of employment opportunities to skilled/unskilled labourers in Islaamic countries in particular and other countries in general would put any go nment in troublesome situation. Therefore 5-trillian GDP targeted by 2024 by this go nment shall never be achieved unless they change the policy decisions from pet subjects to real monetary subjects to boost the purchasing power of all Indian citizens. But whether this go nment will do that is a big question.
Naysayer are doomed. All others are charged up to achieve the goal of 5 trillion economy. Yes we will achieve it. But why this suspicion is the question. A country looted away for centuries and still have preserved its ethos and self respect to deny all intimidaion. Today on the beat of Swami Vibekananda " The 21st century belongs India"Bharat agar jogoto sobhaysreshtho alone lobe is the reality. It will be made a reality with efforts of every Indian for sure
Anti-Indian anti-Hindu pro-Congress pro-jihadi pro-separatist Feku Sonia and Rahul bhakt corrupt kala dhan hoarding trolls have been badly affected by demonetization and the loss of political power. Unfortunately, Modi will be in power until the day he dies.
Nay sayers are one too many in this country. Even achieving 4 trillion over the next 4 years with systemic corrections being done one by one to our economy, banks etc, etc, will be laudable in this time frame.
4 trillion does not require any leadership..The Country will grow independent of leadership..the pace of growth is in question.
Everyone forgets that this is Nominal GDP growth is how much India grows, and second is how much USD depreciates. If Chinese currency becomes an alternate to USD for global trading, USD may depreciate by say 20%. This will make India a 5 trillion economy overnight.
Get some brains or atleast rent it. Which cretin will use the Specious Chinese currency to deal in global trade to get ensl ved to China.
No a days every body is a journalist,an economist and an activist.It is free for all.
atleast govt started to think on positive notes ....
P N N
Unpredictale Modiji will overnight he will demonetised Rs.2000 currency notes to divert dismal performance.
5 Trillions target itself is quite stiff, yet Targets should be High so as to make Good effort to do so!!While 5 year plans in earlier period also never achieved as planned, yet good progress is made and Associated with Stiff targets!!A buzz goal is enough to Motivate!!
5 million GDP is a target, it is a vision statement. Everyone knows it is difficult, but then it is leaders job to provide a vision and direction. It is for the economists job to work on the nut bolts of the economy. Let us chew it bit by bit. Let us get the act of doing it right today, india and Indians will have to do it right. Less politics, more togetherness, more unity, more focus, more work. Forget self, religion, caste, India first. Best wishes
Looks like he is right. In fact, we can forget talking about targets now. For the moment, let us take steps for plain revival . Targets can wait.
Give your suggestions rather than ranting
One should always repose faith on Fekunomics!