Forecast puts GDP growth at 11-year low of 5%


NEW DELHI: The economy is forecast to grow at its slowest pace in 11 years in 2019-20, dragged down by anaemic manufacturing, slowing services sector growth, as well as sluggish investment and consumption. With the Union Budget less than a month away, the dismal forecast will add pressure on the authorities to revive the economy.

新德里:受制造业疲弱、服务业增长放缓、投资和消费低迷的拖累,预计到2019- 2020年,印度经济增速将降至11年来的最低水平。距联邦预算公布不到一个月,这一令人沮丧的预测将给当局重振经济带来压力。

The National Statistical Office on Tuesday forecast GDP growth to be 5% in 2019-20, slower than the previous year's 6.8% and in line with the RBI estimate. If this growth is realised, then it would be the slowest since 3.1% posted in 2008-09 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Nominal GDP, which is the market value of goods and services produced in the economy but not adjusted for inflation, is estimated to grow at a42-year low of 7.5%.

印度国家统计局周二预计,2019- 2020年印度GDP增速为5%,低于上年6.8%的增速,与印度央行的估计相符。如果这一增长成为现实,那么这将是自全球金融危机后2008-09年3.1%增速以来的最低增速。名义GDP(不考虑通胀因素的商品和服务的市场价值)预计将以7.5%的速度增长,为42年来的最低水平。

Manufacturing is estimated to slow to 2% in 2019-20 from 6.9% the previous year while the services sector, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy, is forecast to grow by 6.9%, slower than 7.5% in the previous year.

预计到2019- 2020年,制造业增速将从前一年的6.9%降至2%,而占经济近60%的服务业增速将为6.9%,低于前一年的7.5%。


GDP data points to weak investment in FY20


Economists said there is a sharp decline in the growth of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) from 10% in FY19 (revised estimate) to 1% in FY20 (advance estimate), reflecting the subdued investment activity in the economy.


The go nment aims to rein in the fiscal deficit at 3.3% of gross domestic product in the current fiscal year but the pressure on revenues may widen the deficit. There have been calls for relaxing the deficit target to provide space for stimulus to the economy but the go nment has so far maintained that it will stick to the path of fiscal consolidation.



译文来源:三泰虎   译者:Jessica.Wu

Shaktimaan • 6 hours ago

GDP at 11 year low? Modi hai to mumkin hai!


TEABOY is gujju • TEABOY is gujju • Delhi • 8 hours ago

No problem...10th std failed tea boy will inflate figures and forecast 10 trillion dollars economy



Nadeem Akram Shaikh • 6 hours ago

Real GDP is 2.8 only



VasaiKars M• 7 hours ago

Revised method of calculation govt is saying 5 percent. God knows real gdp.



Sohail Rajwani • 7 hours ago

They said economy will grow by 10 percent they meant for ambani and adani lol , reliance shares were 400 RS in 2014 and now 1500 RS in 2020 that's called ache din murkho



Yashodhan • Mumbai • 5 hours ago

11 year low but Modi wants it 70 year low and then start from Scratch.



Amit Kumar Sharma • Israel • 4 hours ago

Modi a failure



Mohsin Sayed • Pune • 7 hours ago

Same people who voted for modi and his economics will bring on street and stone him ........

He is made India a joke




Vivek • 3 hours ago

GDP is anti national, economy is anti national.



Tamal Chaudhuri • 4 hours ago

5% is fudged. In reality we are at 3.5% if we compare to the old method. Gloom has set in as Lotus blooms



Abhijit Sharma • 5 hours ago

This is the worst go nment. Economy is in crisis, no jobs, high food inflation, extortion in the name of taxes, challan, rapes



Siddhartha • Bengaluru • 6 hours ago

And modi is not worried. He is enjoying, laughing, and thinking new plan to fool Indian citizens .



Rajender • New Delhi • 4 hours ago

The condition of economic is very grim



Anthony • goa • 3 hours ago

This number is fake, its gone below 4 percent



Rajesh Vyas• 2 hours ago

who knows the real figure?



Arun • 3 hours ago

No problem. Build temple implement CAA NRC. GDP will be back :P.



Iqbal • Mumbai • 4 hours ago

with tension in the middle east, thanks to modi's friend trump ,oil prices are set to soars, the economy will be below 5% by year end.



srini • hyd • 2 hours ago

That's why Modi brought CAA.



Anjan Kesh • 3 hours ago

Citizens get the govt they deserve. You voted power hungry crooks like modi and goons like shah, what did you expect?



Hemanta • 5 hours ago

India need to be solved this problem very quickly with great efforts.



Dyubm • 3 hours ago

India has become a circus now. Enjoy it



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