India's Geopolitical Blunder Will Lead to Economic Woes


India’s decision to pull out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a new fifteen-member trade bloc, may make sense for domestic economic and political reasons. However, it delivers a blow to New Delhi’s geopolitical goals. It also has problematic implications for Tokyo—one of India’s most important partners—and for the Trump administration’s interests in Asia.

RCEP ran the risk of opening Indian markets up to cheap Chinese goods, threatening above all a critical but sluggish manufacturing industry that New Delhi has struggled to energize. This is no small matter for a country already experiencing major trade deficits with most RCEP members and suffering through its biggest economic slowdown in six years.

Meanwhile, RCEP had attracted considerable opposition in India, from firms to farmers. New Delhi couldn’t afford to alienate key constituencies, including a farming class already reeling from crippling debt and drought—and especially as the go nment contemplates an economic recovery plan that will likely entail tough measures that could eat into Modi’s, and his party’s, immense popularity. In effect, Modi’s decision to walk away from RCEP reflects a desire to put Indian interests first. This is, after all, an unabashedly conservative and nationalist go nment.

However, India’s rejection of RCEP—which is comprised entirely of nations, including China, within Asia—undercuts its goal of becoming a more active player in Asia. Indeed, the move may bring domestic benefits to India, but it also means India will squander multiple geopolitical opportunities.






New Delhi’s Act East policy entails shoring up relations with countries to its east, and particularly the ASEAN states, to unlock energy and other economic opportunities, as well as to deepen its footprint in a region where its Chinese rival looms large. The policy intends to help India compensate for its non-membership in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), a global trade partnership of twenty-one Pacific Rim states that includes most ASEAN states. Saying no to RCEP is a missed opportunity to strengthen relations with the very ASEAN states.

Keep in mind as well India’s broader strategic goal of enhancing its role on the world stage in its efforts to become—and be seen as—a rising and responsible power. This is a particularly paramount goal for the Modi go nment, which views Hindu nationalism not only as an effort to elevate the status of Hindus at home but also to make India a great nation abroad.

For all these reasons, backing out of RCEP—which with India as a member would have comprised half the world’s population and almost 30 percent of global gross domestic product—isn’t a good look for New Delhi.

新德里的“向东行动”(Act East)政策需要加强与东部国家的关系,尤其是与东盟国家的关系,以释放能源和其他经济机遇,并深化其在该地区的影响力。在该地区,印度的中国竞争对手实力十分强大。该政策旨在帮助印度弥补其未加入亚太经济合作组织(APEC)的损失。APEC是由21个环太平洋国家组成的全球贸易伙伴关系,其中包括大多数东盟国家。对RCEP说“不”错过了一个加强与东盟国家关系的机会。




译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/49027.html 译者:Joyceliu

Putin5 hours ago

it’s better to keep chinese goods out 
india won’t make the blunder USA made




Joe7 hours ago

Been to India once on a business trip and that will be the last!!! This country need to do more for the people!!!!

去印度出差过一次,那绝对是我最后一次去印度!! 这个国家应该努力了!!


Captain Downer7 hours ago




Guru32 minutes ago

That was the best thing Modi did for India.It never allowed it to be blackmailed by china just as it is doing to US now allowing all manufactured goods in that country.China holds US by its scruff.



Anamjem / WAK.4 hours ago

Many Indians on trade from China but not from India~ Most Tech industries from Delhi to Karnataka are buying products ex China direct to India or from UAE! And those Indians are generating huge amount of revenues for India. Modi's policies on trade as well on Muslims definitely dragging India down to dearth!



Gordon4 hours ago

India sounds a lot smarter than the US on this issue. The US has allowed unlimited cheap imports from China to destroy multiple manufacturing businesses and they are moving up the intellectual supply chain.



JNF25 hours ago

No economic woes hahahahhahahah The country is prospering and going in the right direction



Q501s7 hours ago

Modi is a blunder.



Anonymous5 hours ago

Modi is reincarnation of HITLER in India. The people are suffering, Economy is in worst shape in six years, and he is playing flute like Nero.



JINN5 hours ago

BJP press release !



Karim6 hours ago

Modi would be worse than Hitler if were in 1930s.



W7 hours ago

CCP propaganda machine is working full force targeted against India. Modi Govt. is doing everything to protect interests of India.



boobielvr5 hours ago

What the Ef US and EU doing ? Sitting and watching? They should double down India with sanctions and it will bring them down to nees.



Putin5 hours ago

USA opened its doors to China and got royally destriyed 
Now US president is forcing Apple to manufacture in Texas instead of China




Guru34 minutes ago

If only two ships from china stop delivering goods to US ,then US is finished.



Guru35 minutes ago

The fate of it can be seen in US. Other than babies everything is produced in china.



russeljohn51 minutes ago

People of Indian origin pretty much run major companies in the world .. every-where .. this has been goin on for ages .. pretty sure they know what they r doing & will do what's good for them .. the rest , take a chill pill .



Ramiro5 hours ago

Ladies/Gentlemen: India will be back at the table soon enough. This is nothing less than a negotiation tactic.



BigTrannyMike4 hours ago

Wonder why liberals hate Good Strong leaders



Citizen X3 hours ago

Actually, it will lead to the USA losing more power. Ultimately, the biggest loser is the USA as it will cause a mass defection from swift and the dollar. The USA must begin a backwards integration strategy to fix the debt and liquidity crisis. This will mean yielding geo political will while they reset.



Muhammad38 minutes ago

NO, it's not a blunder - it's great. Keep China away !!!
India is forging individual partnerships with countries that are truly wanting to do business and not practice "gouging".




Motionless Mind6 hours ago

National Interest- the doom monger!



Miraj I7 hours ago

Modi has been exposed as the uneducated fool that he is.



Putin5 hours ago

whoever wrote this article is a moron 
USA made the biggest blunder of its. entire history by partnering with China and got its manufacturing decimated 
India won’t make the blunder USA made




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