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为什么日本要大力投资印度基础设施项目

Why is Japan pumping so much money into India for its infrastructure projects?

为什么日本要大力投资印度基础设施项目?

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Quora评论翻译:

来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46134.html    译者:Jessica.Wu

外文:https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Japan-pumping-so-much-money-into-India-for-its-infrastructure-projects

Sunny Mewati, Predictably Irrational

Japan's investment spree in India should be seen within the broader context of what Japan did and still does for east Asia.

应该从更广泛的角度来看待日本在印度的投资热潮,即日本为东亚做了什么,现在仍在做什么。

Firstly, Japan has always been a resource and labor starved but capital rich country. For example, Japanese firms alone have a cash stockpile of over $2 trillion. It has been a long standing Japanese economic policy to invest this capital in emerging economies to generate businesses for Japanese firms. Japan is a highly developed (low returns to capital) but aging country (labor shortage). It's economy has been stagnant for over two decades but if you visit Japan, it does not seem if the country has been in recession for so long. Unemployment is low and living standards are high. It is because Japanese capital has one of the best returns of any other country through Japan's aggressive investments in high risk but high return emerging markets. During the 1960's, they invested heavily on Korea and Taiwan and Hong Kong through both direct investment and institutionalized lending through the Asian Development Bank. In the 1980's and 90's, Japan along with Taiwan led foreign investment into China with a lot of resource for infrastructure deals.

首先,日本一直是一个资源匮乏、劳动力匮乏但资金充裕的国家。例如,仅日本公司就拥有超过2万亿美元的现金储备。日本长期以来的经济政策是将这些资本投资于新兴经济体,为日本企业创造业务。日本是一个高度发达(资本回报率低)但老龄化(劳动力短缺)的国家。日本经济已经停滞了20多年,但如果你去日本看看,你会发现日本经济衰退的时间似乎并不长。日本失业率低,生活水平高。这是因为,通过在高风险、高回报的新兴市场的积极投资,日本资本的回报率是众多国家中最高的。上世纪60年代,他们通过直接投资和亚洲开发银行的制度化贷款,在韩国、台湾和香港大举投资。

Furthermore, Japan's international influence has taken a hit especially in Africa and East Asia with the emergence of China. China executed to perfection, the textbook on gaining economic influence written by Japan. It aggressively invested Africa and has largely been successful in filling Japan's shoes in east Asia. It established parallel financial institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Chinese firms have regularly outmaneuvered their Japanese counterparts in east Asia in bagging infrastructure contracts such as building rail projects in Thailand and Indonesia. In business jargon, China has disrupted Japan's otherwise perfect business model of gaining high returns on capital abroad to maintain the domestic economy.

随着中国的崛起,日本的国际影响力受到了打击,尤其是在非洲和东亚。中国完美地执行了日本获得经济影响力的方式,大举投资非洲,并在填补日本在东亚的空白方面取得了很大成功。中国建立了平行的金融机构,如亚洲基础设施投资银行。在获得基础设施建设合同方面,在东亚中国企业经常胜过日本企业,比如在泰国和印尼建设铁路项目。用商业行话来说,中国打破了日本原本完美的商业模式,即在海外获得高回报以维持国内经济。

Against this backdrop, India is the best destination. The only country where Japan still has an upper hand and which has a desire for, but also a near visceral aversion to Chinese investments. Chinese investments are viewed with an undercurrent of hostility by India. The Chinese are not very keen on investing in India either. 'Hot money flows' from western nations that fueled most of India's growth for the past 15 years are slowly drying up. Multilateral financing has a lot of strings attached. For India, the easiest source of capital is Japan, a country viewed favorably by most Indians. A large scale investment from China will always raise the banter of 'compromising national security', concessions granted to say the United States or Europe would likely be dubbed 'exploitation' because of our socialist past but Japan is different. Because it is perceived as an old friend and ally, the government faces the least political resistance in granting Japan concessions in return for capital and expertise.

在这种背景下,印度是最好的选择。印度渴望但又几乎发自内心地厌恶中国投资,中国投资被印度视为一股潜在的敌意。中国人也不太热衷于在印度投资。过去15年推动印度经济增长的西方国家的热钱正在慢慢枯竭。多边融资有很多附加条件。对印度来说,最容易获得资本的国家是日本,这个国家被大多数印度人看好。中国的大规模投资总是会引发“国家安全妥协”的戏谑。但日本则不同,由于日本被视为老朋友和盟友,印度政府在给予日本让步以换取资金和专业技能方面面临的政治阻力最小。

Last, interest on Japanese soft loans is very low, in the range of 0.25% that even 30% offset for Japanese firms does not equal the return of simple American T-bills. There is a clear geopolitical dimension to Japan's investment as well but unlike most commentators, I don't think it has anything to do with the 'dominant narrative' of containing China. Japan and India are natural allies in that India's need for military modernization is aligned with Shinzo Abe's plan to revive Japanese economy with arms exports. Even with Narendra Modi's defense indegenization push, India will remain a major importer of weapons for a long time and hence a large prospective market for Japanese defense exports.

最后,日本软贷款的利息非常低,在0.25%的范围内。日本投资也有明显的地缘政治因素,但我认为这与遏制中国无关。日本和印度是天然盟友,因为印度对军事现代化的需求与安倍晋三通过武器出口重振日本经济的计划是一致的。即使莫迪推动了国防本土化,印度在很长一段时间内仍将是主要武器进口国,因此对日本的国防出口而言,印度仍将是一个巨大的潜在市场。

In conclusion, Japan's investment in India is a function of push and pull. Japan is facing stiff competition from Chinese capital in East Asia and Africa but not in India enhancing India's attractiveness. For India, conventional sources of capital are slowly drying up.

综上所述,日本在印度的投资起的是推拉作用。日本在东亚和非洲面临中国资本的激烈竞争,但在印度却没有。对印度来说,传统的资本来源正在慢慢枯竭。

 

Abhishek Kshirsagar

A few reasons that I can think of:

我能想到的理由如下:

ŸJapanese economy is stagnating since 1990’s and that is not a good thing. To add to the problems, it shrank in 2015 (Why is Japan's economy shrinking? (Why is Japan's economy shrinking?)) and in not very good conditions since then.

Ÿ自1990年以来,日本经济停滞不前,这并不是一件好事。雪上加霜的是,日本经济在2015年又开始萎缩(为什么日本经济会萎缩?),而且从那以后情况就不太好了。

ŸJapanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised Japanese population that he’ll bring inflation back in Japan. And a very good option to do that is to boost the growth and print more money (and they are doing that too)

日本首相安倍晋三已承诺日本人,他会降低通胀。一个很好的选择就是促进经济增长,印刷更多货币(他们也在这么做)

ŸAnd how can they boost the growth? As the famous principle says, money attracts money. Or to say it simply, if you need returns, you should first invest. And what is a better destination to invest than a rapidly growing Indian Economy?

如何促进经济增长?正如著名的原则所说,金钱吸引金钱。或者简单地说,如果你想要回报,你就应该先投资。还有什么是比快速增长的印度经济更好的投资目的地呢?

ŸMore to that, some of the clauses in this investment suggest that the machinery and other things required for the construction of these projects should be procured from the Japanese companies, thus helping them to grow.

这项投资的一些条款建议,建造这些项目所需的机械和其他东西应从日本公司采购,从而帮助它们成长。

ŸAlso, since the emergence of China, Japan has lost its influence in most of the African and a few Asian countries too. It is now fiercely competing with China to win India.

此外,因为中国的崛起,日本已经失去了在大部分非洲和一些亚洲国家的影响力。为了拿下印度,日本现在正与中国展开激烈竞争。

 

Vivek Chaudhary, Student at Lovely Professional University- LPU (2018-present)

Japan is seeking a place to invest From where they can get much profit.

日本正在寻找一个投资的地方,从那里获得很多利润。

Japan want to open Its manufacturing Units in India as their working Age population is decreasing dramatically in Japan So they do need to go to somewhere they get more profit and India is best place because labour cost in India is very cheap and also have Largest working age population.

由于劳动年龄人口急剧下降,日本想在印度设立制造单位,所以他们需要去其他地方寻求更多的利润,印度是最佳选择,因为印度劳动力成本非常便宜,而且劳动年龄人口最为庞大。

Talking about Bullet trains,

According to IMF, Income per capita will be rise to about 3000USD by 2023(i.e. when Bullet will be operational) So, I think in 2023 3000INR will be not a huge amount of money for getting bullet experience and also feeling same as developed country do and also talking about external debt India is far better than other countries as it has only debt equal to 24% of it's GDP and also who repay the debt at all.

根据国际货币基金组织的预测,到2023年,印度人均收入将达到3000美元左右(印度高铁届时也将开通)。此外,谈到外债,印度要比其他国家好得多,因为它的债务仅相当于GDP的24%。

And not to forget, they also investing in DMIC project.

此外,日本还投资了德里孟买工业走廊项目。

 

Rajeev Ranjan, Mystic India

Japan has a natural ally in India. Both share a shared history owing to Buddhism. Apart from that, India is known to be one nation devoid of hegemonic attitude. Japan has a huge ageing population, while India has a huge young population. In last two decades Indian economy has grown by over 200%, while Japan has grown by a little over 50%.

印度是日本的天然盟友。由于佛教,两国都有共同的历史。除此之外,众所周知,印度是一个没有霸权态度的国家。日本有庞大的老龄化人口,而印度有庞大的年轻人口。在过去20年里,印度经济增长超过200%,而日本经济增长略超过50%。

Japan always has a tiff with China over land issues and other issues, and so has India. It makes them a natural ally to contain China.

日本和中国在土地和其他问题上一直存在争端,印度也是如此。这使他们成为遏制中国的天然盟友。

Moreover Japan needs rare earth for defence production, for which it depends onb unreliable China which had stopped export to Japan a few years ago. India can easily supply to them.

此外,日本需要稀土用于国防生产,而中国在几年前就停止了对日出口稀土。而印度可以为日本提供。

Japan has a lot of technological developments and innovations which it can sell to India, a huge market. For e.g. Bullet trains, Nuclear technologies. Huge economies like China, US already have it. So it makes sense for Japan to invest in India.

日本有很多技术发展和创新,可以卖给印度这个巨大的市场。例如子弹头列车,核技术。像中国、美国这样的巨大经济体,他们已经掌握了这些技术。因此,日本在印度投资是有道理的。

 

Anonymous

Beside all the economic reason that people have pointed out, there is strategic dimension, as to why Japan is pumping so much money. The reasons are:

除了大家指出的所有经济原因外,还有战略层面的原因:

1stChanging scenario of Asia pacific region, with the erstwhile dominance of US, is slowly being challenged by China

2ndChina has become strong regional power. Japan shares territorial disputes with the China. So does India

3rdThe rebalancing and pivot to Asia policy of US, is basically a response to the China's growing dominance. US is trying to forge a alliance of countries like Australia, Japan, south Korea,India to balance China's rise.

4thSo, Japans views India as a ally.

1.随着美国昔日的主导地位正慢慢受到中国的挑战,亚太地区的格局正在发生变化

2.中国已经成为强大的地区力量。日本与中国有领土争端,印度亦如此。

3.美国转向亚洲的政策,基本上是对中国日益增长的主导地位的回应。美国正试图与澳大利亚、日本、韩国、印度等国结成联盟,以制衡中国的崛起。

4.日本将印度视为盟友。

Also, remember Japan over-dependence on US for security and nuclear cover(due to constitution and Article 9 of Japan).Japan wants to decrease its overdependence and rather become self reliant. In the process, it also wants to diversify its strategic partners.

此外,请记住,日本在安全和核保护方面过度依赖美国(由于日本宪法第9条)。日本想要减少过度依赖,变得更加自力更生。在此过程中,它还希望使其战略合作伙伴多样化。

 

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