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惠誉:2014年印度是唯一有望经济增长加速的金砖国家

在未来几年印度可以期待更好的投资气候,惠誉在周三表示在2015财年GDP增速将提升至5.6%。“印度将成为2014年在金砖国家中唯一增长加速的,达到5.6%,由于商业环境有望改善,预计2015年和2016年的增速进一步提高到6.5%,“ 惠誉称。另一方面,评级机构认为中国经济在接下来几年放缓。惠誉预计中国会在寻求抑制杠杆中逐步调整经济使得GDP增速在2014年放缓至7.2%,2015年至6.8%以及2016年至6.5%。在评论印度经济时,惠誉称,“由于五月份新政府上台使得政治不确定性消失,投资很可能增加。”

译者:umbrella
来源:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-318269-1-1.html
外文:http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-10-01/news/54516863_1_gdp-growth-fitch-ratings-fy15


20120718185419886

India only BRIC country to see growth pick up in 2014; China to slow down: Fitch

惠誉:2014年印度是金砖四国唯一有望经济增长加速的;中国减缓

NEW DELHI: Expecting better investment climate in India in the years ahead, Fitch on Wednesday said that GDP growth will pick up to 5.6% in FY15. "India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014, to 5.6%, with an expected further increase to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016 due to an expected improvement in business environment," Fitch said.

新德里:在未来几年印度可以期待更好的投资气候,惠誉在周三表示在2015财年GDP增速将提升至5.6%。“印度将成为2014年在金砖国家中唯一增长加速的,达到5.6%,由于商业环境有望改善,预计2015年和2016年的增速进一步提高到6.5%,“ 惠誉称。

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On the other hand, the ratings agency sees the Chinese economy witnessing a slowdown in the years to come. Fitch expects China's GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage.

另一方面,评级机构认为中国经济在接下来几年放缓。惠誉预计中国会在寻求抑制杠杆中逐步调整经济使得GDP增速在2014年放缓至7.2%,2015年至6.8%以及2016年至6.5%。

Commenting on the Indian economy, Fitch said, "Investment is likely to rise now that political uncertainty has disappeared since the new government came to power last May."

在评论印度经济时,惠誉称,“由于五月份新政府上台使得政治不确定性消失,投资很可能增加。”

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According to Fitch, the expected pick-up seems supported by the 5.7% GDP growth in Q2 (versus 4.6% in Q1), although the election results were announced halfway through the quarter. "The growth impulse of government spending in the run-up to the elections that contributed to growth is likely to be one-off, but a positive sign is an increase in capital expenditure by 7%. The recent rise in GDP growth was supported by industry and financial services, as well as a solid performance of the agricultural sector, not yet affected by the current weak monsoon," it added.

根据惠誉的观点,二季度GDP的5.7%增速(一季度4.6%)也许支撑了预期增长加速,虽然季度过半选举结果才得以公布。“大选前夕政府支出的增长波动对经济增长的贡献也许是一次性的,但是一个积极信号是资本支出增加了7%。工业和金融服务业以及农业板块坚实的表现都支持了近期的GDP增速提升,并未收到近来轻度印度洋季风的影响,”惠誉补充道。

Fitch went on to say that the new government has started rolling out a number of policies, which may improve the efficiency of the bureaucracy and strengthen the investment climate. "However, lifting GDP growth to substantially higher levels would require large productivity gains through implementation of far-reaching reforms by the central and state governments related to governance and product and labour markets, as well as reduction of infrastructure bottlenecks," Fitch explained.

惠誉接着称,新政府已经开始推行一系列可能提高官僚机构效率和加强投资环境的政策。“然而,支撑GDP增长到实质上更高的层次会需要巨大的生产力,这需要通过中央和地方对管理、产品和劳动力市场进行广泛的改革以及减少基础设施瓶颈才能获得,”惠誉解释道。

Fitch is of the opinion that the potential for change is substantial, as India ranks the lowest of all 'BBB-' rated sovereigns on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business indicators and its governance indicators compare unfavourably with peers.

惠誉指出,变化的潜力是巨大的,如印度在世界银行的商业环境指数和管理能力指数排行中拥有最低的“BBB-”评级,与其类似国家相比相差甚远。

Talking about inflation, Fitch said that the weak monsoon season has had limited impact so far on inflation. "Consumer price inflation (CPI) is gradually declining, but is still high compared with peers at 7.8% in August 2014. Since inflation expectations are more closely related to CPI, the Reserve Bank of India focuses on CPI and targets a "glide path" to 6% by January 2016. In the longer run, a credible low inflation environment would benefit growth by improving the investment environment," it concluded.

当谈及通货膨胀时,惠誉表示,轻度季风季节到目前为止对通胀的影响有限。“CPI(居民消费价格指数)正逐渐下降,但是2014年8月份的7.8%与类似国家比较仍然处于高位。由于CPI与通胀预期密切相关,印度央行对其表示关切并设定了一个到2016年1月下降至6%的目标。长远来看,一个可靠的低通胀环境有助于通过改善投资环境获得增长,”它总结道。

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings forecasts global economic growth to increase to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016, from 2.6% in 2014, mainly driven by strengthening recovery in the US and eurozone. "However, the growth outlook has weakened somewhat since the June Global Economic Outlook (GEO) and risks remain skewed to the downside. Growth in emerging markets (EMs) has been revised down again, to 4% in 2014, the weakest since 2009, although we project it to reach 4.4% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2016," Fitch said.

与此同时,惠誉评级预测全球经济增长将从2014年的2.6%提升到2015年的3%和2016年的3.1%,这主要得益于美国和欧元区复苏加强的推动。“但是,六月以来全球经济展望的前景有所削弱,偏下行的风险依然存在。新兴市场的增长再次下调至2014年的4%——这是自2009年以来最低的,虽然我们展望其会在2015年达到4.4%,2016年达到4.7%,” 惠誉称。

以下是印度《经济时报》读者的评论:



Maapithas Maapithas (AUCKLAND)
RISE IN INVESTMENT AS EXPECTED HAS NOT HAPPENED AND UNLESS THERE IS DRASTIC REFORMS IN TAXATION AND REGULATION OF MONEY MARKETS

预想中的投资增加不会出现,除非在税收和货币市场监管方面有大动作改革。

 
Ravindra Shetye (Mumbai)

We talk about "MAKE IN INDIA". First requirement for MAKE IN INDIA is to set up large number of large and small "FACTORIES", where the MAKING will take place. Upto recently looking at Arcellor Mittal and POSCO struggling for seven years and ultimately dropping the projects, each of 40000 (FORTY THOUSAND) crores shows that a DRAMATIC CHANGE is required to ease setting up the FACTORIES. Otherwise MAKING will be restricted to SPEECHES.

让我们谈谈“印度制作”吧,“印度制作”的首要条件是建立众多大大小小的工厂,在这些工厂中产品得以生产。回看安赛乐米塔尔公司和浦项制铁的七年之痒并最终放弃了项目,每四万卢比表明(这句没懂和卢比扯上了什么关系,求指点):戏剧性的变化需要给建立工厂宽松的环境,不然光是用嘴巴说是生产不出东西的。

 
Avinash Yadav (Unknown)
We need to reach that figure of 9% in next 2-3 years we need to work harder.

我们需要在以后两三年达到9%的(增长)数据,我们需要更加努力工作。

 
Gopalan .Ananthapadmanabhan (Bangalore 560036)
This growth rate of 5 to6% is a recovery and we should march with confidence to 6%+ if we want to provide healthy economy

5%~6%的增长只能算是恢复性的,如果我们想要健康的经济,我们应该带着6%+的信心前进。

TRKN(Pune) Replies To Gopalan .Ananthapadmanabhan
The aim should be for 7 - 8% growth.


目标7~8%差不多了。



 
RanjanKumar Tripathy (Rourkela)
Considering the speed of decision making,more investments expected.

考虑到现在的决策速度,应该有更多的投资预期。

TRKN(Pune) Replies To RanjanKumar Tripathy
THERE ARE SIGNS ALREADY.


已经有迹象了。



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