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印度雷迪夫网:为什么印度不会成为希特勒式德国

2013-10-12 11:30 64个评论 字号:

印度雷迪夫网:为什么印度不会成为希特勒式德国。在这个拥有12亿人口的国家里,也许有少数印度人不喜欢穆斯林,并希望他们得病。然而,无论印度教教徒和穆斯林的关系多么紧张,大多数印度人仍然是世俗的。任何观察印度历史事件发展的政治分析家或历史学家也许会忍不住得出一个可怕的相似点:1933年的魏玛德国和2013年的国大党印度。两者在时间上相差80年,距离上相隔数千公里,然而相似之处令人不安。

译者:不知悔過的劍
来源:三泰虎论坛 http://bbs.santaihu.com
外文:http://www.rediff.com/news/report/column-why-india-will-not-be-hitlers-germany/20131003.htm

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Why India will not be Hitler’s Germany

为什么印度不会成为希特勒式德国

‘In this country of 1.2 billion, there may be a few Indians who might dislike Muslims and wish them ill. But the vast majority of Indians remain secular, no matter how grave Hindu-Muslim tensions,’ says Amberish Kathewad Diwanji.

“在这个拥有12亿人口的国家里,也许有少数印度人不喜欢穆斯林,并希望他们得病。然而,无论印度教教徒和穆斯林的关系多么紧张,大多数印度人仍然是世俗的。”Amberish Kathewad Diwanji说。

Any political analyst or historian watching events unfold in India today might be very tempted to draw an eerie parallel: Weimar Germany, circa 1933, and Congress India, circa 2013. Separated by over 80 years and thousands of miles, the similarities appear worrisome.

任何观察印度历史事件发展的政治分析家或历史学家也许会忍不住得出一个可怕的相似点:1933年的魏玛德国和2013年的国大党印度。两者在时间上相差80年,距离上相隔数千公里,然而相似之处令人不安。

Then in Germany, as now in India, there was a single leader seen as the panacea for all the country’s ills: Adolf Hitler in Germany, Narendra Modi in India.

In both cases, they were outsiders to the mainstream — Hitler was from Austria; Modi is a backward class person in a party historically dominated by the upper castes — who pushed for majorityism politics, both were/are backed by strong right-wing nationalist parties that had/have anti-minority agendas.

Besides these evident political events, there are other even more important economic events where one can draw parallels. Hitler’s rise to power was linked to the global depression of the 1930s. That depression actually began in 1929, when the US markets crashed, leading to runaway inflation in Germany, which was still paying reparations for World War I.

当时的德国正如现在的印度。两国都有一位能解决国家一切弊病的单一领袖:德国是希特勒,印度是纳伦德拉穆迪。

在两个案例中,他们都是不同于主流的局外人——希特勒来自奥地利,穆迪在一个历史上由高种姓主导的政党中是落后阶层人士。两人都受到强硬右翼民族主义政党的支持。

除了这些明显的政治事件,还有其他能得出相似之处的更为重要的经济事件。希特勒的崛起与1930年代的全球大萧条有关。实际上,大萧条开始于美国市场奔溃的1929年,导致德国出现恶性通货膨胀,而德国当时仍然在支付一战赔款。

In fact, inflation was so steep that at one point people did not count money, but weighed the notes that were to be paid for regular commodities.

Then, demographers have often noted that a sudden surge in the population of the young in a country where they cannot find gainful employment is a recipe for disaster. In the 1920s and 1930s, Germany had a youth bulge, but many of the young men were unemployed, thanks to the debts Germany was forced to pay, which limited investments in new jobs.

In their anger and frustration, the youth readily believed Hitler when he blamed all of Germany’s ills on the Jews.

事实上,通货膨胀非常严重,人们买日常用品时一度不数钱,而是拿来秤。

人口统计学家常常指出,一国年轻人口激增且那些人找不到有报酬的工作,是造成灾难的秘诀。在1920年代和1930年代,德国出现“青年潮”,许多年轻人失业,这要多亏了德国被迫支付的债务,它限制了能创造新工作的投资。

感到愤怒和挫折的年轻人乐于相信希特勒所言的德国一切弊病归咎于犹太人。

India is lurching towards a similar situation. In India, every year, some 10 million to 12 million youngsters join the workforce (this is the government’s figure; according to some private analysts, it is more than double that).

印度正蹒跚地走向类似的情况。每年有大约1000万至1200万年轻人加入劳动大军中(这是官方的数据;据一些私营部门分析师称,数据为两倍不止)。

Even going by the government figure, India has to create 10 million jobs a year, and over the next five years, 50 million new jobs.

In the current economic downturn, so many jobs are not being added to the economy. Tragically, even when India was booming in the last decade, jobs were not being added the way they should have been.

There is no doubt that if the present government is unable to create more jobs, and quickly, the country will be witness to hordes of young men roaming the streets.

即便按照官方的数据,印度每年也必须创造1000万份工作,未来5年就是5000万份新工作。

在目前的经济低迷中,许多工作并未加入到经济活动中。悲剧的是,即便是过去十年一片繁荣的印度,工作也并未以应有的方式加入进来。

毫无疑问,如果现任政府无力创造新工作,该国很快将见证成群的年轻人在街头流浪。

In 1974-1975, when food prices rose dramatically following OPEC’s decision to hike the price of crude, riots had broken out across India. People chose to believe in anyone but the government, be it George Fernandes (then a trade union leader) or Jayaprakash Narayan (the Gandhian activist).

This time, with neither a Socialist nor a Gandhian on the horizon, people are increasingly seeing their saviour in Narendra Modi. This might explain the rousing reception he gets wherever he goes, and the frenzy-like greeting of those gathered to see him.

1974-1975年,欧佩克决定提高原油价格,粮食价格随之出现急剧上涨,导致骚乱遍及全印度。不管是费尔南德斯(当时的一位工会领袖)或贾亚普拉卡什纳拉扬(甘地主义活动家),人们相信任何人的话,就是不相信政府。

这次,既没有社会学家也没有甘地主义者出现在眼前,人们愈发将纳伦德拉穆迪视为救星。这也许能解释为何他走到哪里都能受到热情接待,以及狂热的人们聚集起来想要见他。

Yet, more than the similarities between the India of 2013 and the Germany of 1933, the differences between the two countries might ensure that India won’t go down the same path.

然而,相较于2013年的印度和1933年的德国之间的相似之处,两国更多的不同之处也许能确保印度不会走上同样的道路。

The first dissimilarity is the sheer size and diversity of India. Even if Modi and the BJP were to win (and there is as yet absolutely no surety of this), it will at best be a coalition government.

Coalition partners are unlikely to tolerate a party going berserk against the minorities. Mamata Banerjee or Naveen Patnaik may back the BJP, but will insist on secular policies.

第一个不同之处是印度的规模和多样性。如果穆迪和人民党获胜(这还不是板上钉钉的事情),最终组建的充其量是联合政府。

联盟伙伴不大可能容忍一个政党疯狂反对少数族群。玛玛塔·班纳吉(Mamata Banerjee)或巴奈克(Naveen Patnaik)也许会支持人民党,但会坚持世俗政策。

Second, and more important, unlike Germany in the 1930s where the opposition was literally wiped out, this is unlikely to happen in India after the next election.

Despite all its scams, Rahul Gandhi may still push the Congress party to emerge as the single largest party. At worst, it will be the second largest party in the country. Thus, even if it goes out of power, the Congress will remain a potent force that will keep the BJP in check.

第二点,但更重要的是,与1930年代的德国不一样,德国当时的反对派几乎被消灭,而下次大选后印度不大可能发生这样的事情。

尽管丑闻缠身,拉胡尔甘地也许仍会推动国大党成为最大的单一政党。最坏的情况是国大党沦落为印度第二大党。因此,即便让出了权利,国大党仍将是一支强有力的力量,能够有效制衡人民党。

Third, and perhaps most important, are the people of India.

There is no denying that in this country of 1.2 billion there may be a few Indians who might dislike Muslims and wish them ill. But the vast majority of Indians remain secular, no matter how grave Hindu-Muslim tensions.

Indians are by and large a secular lot. This is what has kept India secular and remains the best bet for the future, no matter how grim the economic situation

第三点,但也许是最重要的一点,就是印度人民。

不可否认的是,在这个拥有12亿人口的国家里,也许有少数印度人不喜欢穆斯林,且希望他们得病。然而,无论印度教教徒和穆斯林的关系多么紧张,大多数印度人仍然是世俗的。

总体来说,印度人世俗的较多。正是这个维持印度是一个世俗国家,且无论经济形势多么糟糕,它仍将是保障未来的最好办法。

以下是雷迪夫网的评论:

译者:不知悔過的劍
来源:三泰虎论坛 http://bbs.santaihu.com

India will become
by FEKU MODI
Hitler’s Germany when IDIOT INDIANS WILL VOTE FOR BUTCHER MODI!

当白痴印度人把票投给屠夫穆迪时,印度就会是希勒勒的德国!

Comparing Jews and Muslims????
by rk singh
is like comparing apples to rotten oranges. Jews contributed to German economy and science in a huge way (before Hitler went mad). Most Nobel laureates from Germany were Jews. Muslims are yet to give a single contribution to our country.

比较犹太人和穆斯林,就像比较苹果和烂橘子。犹太人给德国经济和科学做出巨大贡献(在希特勒发疯前)。德国的大多数诺贝尔奖得主是犹太人。穆斯林还没有给我们国家做出任何贡献。

Re: Comparing Jews and Muslims????
by Sivan Pillai
Muslims contribute negatively. They don’t practice family planning and increase their population, which strains the national resources. By terrorists and disruptive activities they disturb the peaceful life in the country.

穆斯林做出的是负面贡献。他们不实行计划生育,不断增加人口,给国家资源带来压力。此外,他们通过恐怖分子来扰乱国家的和平生活。

hitler was bad
by doc
because he tried to destroy the jews one of the most sophisticated civilizations. whereas our enemies are most barbaric of the men humanity ever produced, and they have already managed to kill millions of us. so we desperately need a real final solution with these enemies.

希特勒之所以是坏人,是因为他试图消灭犹太人这个最先进的文明群体。然而我们的敌人是人类有史以来出现的最野蛮的人,他们已经设法杀害了数以百万计人,所以我们迫切需要就这些敌人寻找真正的最终解决方案。

Re: Re: Another Paid Article by Rediff !!
by Sivan Pillai
Modi is coming to power, and appeasement of Muslims will end. Muslims will start behaving properly, and all of us will live happily in this country.

穆迪就要上台,姑息穆斯林的政策就要结束。穆斯林到时候会开始表现正常,大家将能在这个国家享受快乐生活。

Don’t underestimate our politicians
by Diwakar Sandur
Nice article, articulatying something that has been worrying me.

Not sure about the author’s conclusion though. Indians may be a secular lot, but I think our politicians have an enormous capacity to divide society for votes. I am not sure that India won’t go the way of pre-WWII Germany.

好文章,明确阐述了我一直担心的一些事情。

对作者得出的结论不肯定。印度人也许世俗的较多,然而我认为我们的政客拥有强大的能力,会不惜为了选票而分裂社会。我不确定印度不会走上二战前德国的道路。

Poor immature writing
by Pen diamond
Writer has no idea as to why people want Modi. They are fed up with corruption and need a strong and a good leader.

作者不知道人民为什么需要穆迪。他们受够了腐败,需要强大的的领袖。

badluck
Most important is that Muslims are not Jews who can be easily herded into gas camps. They will fight back and seek help from the Muslim world and get it. 2014 will also see the US pullout and Taliban back there. So Modi may just bring a lot of bad luck or India.

最重要的是,穆斯林不是容易被赶进毒气室的犹太人。他们会抵抗,而且能从穆斯林世界寻求帮助。2014年也会见证美国撤出阿富汗和塔利班卷土重来。所以穆迪可能会给印度带来很多厄运。



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