三泰虎

印度可以拥抱美国,但是无法承担惹恼中国的后果

美国国防部长帕内塔在亚洲之旅的新德里站中发表了一些有趣的声明,声明包括美国将和印度展开更密切的国防合作,还建议印度接受美国所提供的前所未有的支持,捆绑上美军在亚洲的“重新平衡”政策。某些观察家称,美国现在认为印度有潜力成为不断发展的亚洲安全形势中的最重要伙伴。不过印度Rediff网称,印度可以拥抱美国,但是无法承担惹恼中国的后果。印度可以尽一切可能与美国合作,但是不能以中印关系为代价。

原文标题:Why India can't afford to annoy China
原文链接:http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-why-india-cant-afford-to-annoy-china/20120611.htm




美国国防部长帕内塔访问印度,与印度总理辛格举行会谈

United States Defence Secretary Leon Panetta made some interesting pronouncements on the New Delhi leg of his Asian tour last week, including the offer of much closer defence cooperation (as in joint development of weapons, which India already does with Russia and Israel).

His statements suggested an American embrace that goes beyond all previous offers, and tied in with the "re-balancing" of US forces in Asia: putting 60 per cent of US naval assets in the Asia-Pacific region (as against 50 per cent now).

According to some observers, the US now sees India as having the potential to become its most important partner in a developing Asian security scenario that looks increasingly like a China containment policy.

美国国防部长帕内塔上周在亚洲之旅的新德里站中发表了一些有趣的声明,声明包括提供更密切的国防合作(跟印度与俄罗斯和以色列的武器联合开发一样)。

他的声明建议印度接受美国所提供的前所未有的支持,捆绑上美军在亚洲的“重新平衡”政策。美国将把60%的海军部署在亚太地区(当前比例是50%)。

某些观察家称,美国如今认为印度具有在亚洲安全框架下成为美国最重要伙伴的潜力,这种框架越来越像是一种遏制中国的策略。

There are good reasons to welcome the US initiatives, but also to throw cold water on excessive expectations. First, no Asian country (India included) will want to get into a US embrace that risks annoying China. India's primary dispute with China is with regard to the land border.

While Washington can sell India its weapons (light howitzers and heavy transport aircraft are already on order) and in general help to bolster its defence capabilities, it can do little if fighting erupts in Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh; India will be on its own, and will, therefore, consider it important to avoid risking conflict by continuing to project a policy of strategic autonomy.

Cooperate with the US by all means and in every way possible, but not at the expense of the relationship with China.

有很多不错的理由来欢迎美国的倡议,不过也要对过度期望泼些冷水。首先,没有哪个亚洲国家(包括印度)会冒着惹恼中国的危险投入美国的怀抱。边境土地问题是印度与中国所涉及的主要纠纷。

华盛顿可以向印度卖武器(轻型榴弹炮和重型运输飞机已经在订购之中),通常会帮助印度加强其防御能力。但若(中印)在拉达克或者阿鲁纳恰尔邦爆发冲突,那么美国能提供的帮助就少了。印度将只能依靠自己。所以印度认为坚持战略自主的政策是重要的,以避免冒着冲突的风险。

印度可以通过各种方式与美国进行合作,但是不能以中印关系为代价。

Even the small countries of Southeast Asia, which have traditionally welcomed a US security blanket, and which have territorial disputes with China, look over their shoulders at Beijing when they talk to Washington.

China has already become their largest trading partner, replacing the US; it could eventually overtake the US as the leading naval power in the region.

The US has about 100 major warships in the region; that number will not climb beyond 110 even after the "re-balancing" that is proposed. China, meanwhile, is expected to go from 86 major warships in 2009 to 106 by 2020, and these will be operating from nearer their bases.

即使是传统上欢迎美国安全保护伞并与中国有领土争端的东南亚小国,在同华盛顿交流的时候仍要回头看看北京。

中国已经取代美国成为最大的贸易伙伴,将最终超过美国成为该地区的首要海军力量。

美国在该地区有100艘主战军舰,即使力量重新平衡后也不会超过110艘。与此同时,中国的主战军舰有望从2009年的86艘增加到2020年的106艘。而且中国军舰是从较近的基地展开行动。

One ship can, of course, be very different from another in capability, but no Asian country is going to be immune to the fact of growing Chinese naval power at a time when the US defence budget is shrinking.

Indeed, some East Asian countries think the US is making too much of its "re-balancing". No East Asian country will relish being asked to choose between Beijing and Washington, even though it may be wary of China's growing power.

Ironically, the doubts about the effectiveness of the US military presence in the region could work to America's advantage, as countries all the way from Japan to India take greater responsibility for their own security. Across the region, countries are busy rearming and bolstering defence spending, all of them responding to growing Chinese military capability and pressure. The end result could be a more effective containment of China's territorial expansionism than anything that the US could hope to do on its own.

当然,军舰不同,能力也不同。但是没有哪个亚洲国家会对不断发展的中国海军力量具有免疫力。况且同时期的美国国防预算在萎缩。

确实,一些东亚国家认为美国对力量“重新平衡”着墨过多。东亚国家即使害怕中国不断发展的力量,但都不会喜欢在北京和华盛顿之间做选择。

讽刺的是,针对美国军队在该地区的存在的效果存疑可能对美国有利。因为从日本到印度一路而来的所有国家可能自己承担更多的安全责任。在整个地区,各国忙于重整军备和加强国防开支。一切都是对不断发展的中国军队的能力和压力的回应。最终结果是比使出浑身手段的美国更有效的遏制了中国领土扩张主义。

以下是印度网友的评论:



CHINA IS STILL OCCUPYING A BIG CHUNK OF OUR HIMALAYAN LAND
by M A (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 09:59 AM

CHINA IS STILL OCCUPYING A BIG CHUNK OF OUR HIMALAYAN LAND AFTER THAT HUMILIATING DEFEAT IN 1962. EVEN AFTER 50 YEARS, OUR GOVT HAS NOT LEARN'T TO DEAL FIRMLY WITH CHINA. THEIR CREEPING ENCROACHMENT IS A REALITY BUT OUR SPINELESS COWARD CORRUPT UPA GOVT IS SO MUCH SHIT SCARED OF CHINA, THAT IS HAS NOT EVEN PREPARED TO RAISE THE ISSUE WITH THEM AND PERPETUALLY IN DENIAL MODE, TRYING TO FOOL US AND GETTING FOOLED THEMSELVES! THE ITALIAN QUEEN AND FAMILY IS ONLY INTERESTED TO ENMASS BLACK MONEY IN SWISS BANKS AND ALSO CHINESE BANKS!

自从1962年的那场耻辱性失败以来,中国一直占领着我们一大块的喜马拉雅山土地。甚至在50年后,我们的政府还没有学会如何强硬对付中国。他们的缓慢蚕食政策是真实存在的。但是我们没有骨气的腐败国民进步联盟政府太害怕中国,甚至不准备向他们提出这个问题,而是永远抱着否认的思维方式,试图愚弄我们和愚弄自己!那个意大利女王和家族只对把黑钱存入瑞士银行和中国银行感兴趣!

india need not care about china
by csng (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 08:57 AM

India can have friendship with any one on its own terms without caring about what others think.
It need not care about China or Pakistan for that matter.
The author seems to be a communist stooch.
Cmon man have some respect for yourself and your country.

印度可以以自己的方式与任何人交朋友,而不需要顾及其他人的想法。印度不需要在这个方面考虑中国或者巴基斯坦。作者似乎是个共产主义傻粪。普通人对自己和对自己的国家是会有一些尊敬的。

The Beauty and the Beast
by Sam (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 07:53 AM

The Beauty and the Beast

美女和野兽

..
by om shanti (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 07:32 AM

SINO VIETNAM HIGHWAY

The first highway linking Southwest China's Yunnan province and Vietnam will open to traffic next year.

The 600-km journey from Kunming, capital of Yunnan, to Hanoi, capital of Vietnam, will be reduced to six to seven hours from 12-plus hours,as reported in Chinese media.

China and Vietnam will be connected by highway once construction on a 250-km expressway is finished in Vietnam, and linking the countries via highway will greatly reduce transportation costs and boost the regional economy.

China and Vietnam started upgrading local expressways and roads to connect the cross-border highway in 2008 and 2009, respectively, the department said.

The highway is part of Yunnan's Bridgehead Strategy, which aims to build a social and economic corridor toward South Asia and Southeast Asia. The mountainous province borders Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.

Three other cross-border highways leading to Thailand, Myanmar and India are also under construction.

中越高速公路

连接中国云南省和越南的首条高速公路将于明年开放通车。

中国媒体报道,云南省省会昆明到越南首都河内的600公里旅程耗时将从12小时以上减少到6至7个小时。

一旦越南境内的250公里高速公路建设完成,中国和越南将会被高速公路连接起来。连接两国的高速公路将极大减少运输成本和促进地区经济。

中国和越南分别于2008年和2009年开始各自升级公路,以连通跨境高速公路。

这条高速公路是云南的桥头堡策略的一部分,旨在修建通往南亚和东南亚的社会和经济走廊。云南是一个山地多的省,与缅甸、老挝和越南接壤。

其他三条通往泰国、缅甸和印度的公路也在建设中。

what rubbish
by knowthe reason (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 09:14 PM | Hide replies

writer seems to be lacking in self confidence...

作者似乎缺乏自信...

Re: what rubbish
by kunjan shah (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 12:38 AM
china must be democratic. only then world will prosper


中国必须是民主国家。只有那时世界才会繁荣。


Re: Re: what rubbish
by om shanti (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 07:32 AM
Compared to India,China is democratic.Donot be misguided by absence of useless elections to elect_thugs.


相比印度,中国是个民主国家。不要被只会选出恶棍的无用选举误导了。


Re: Re: what rubbish
by madhu sudan p (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 09:53 AM
What India has achieved beeing democratic nation ?
Are we good in Science and Technology like Chinese ?


作为民主国家,印度取得过什么成就?


我们是否像中国人那样擅长科学技术?



Why
by Das (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 04:43 PM | Hide replies

Here are the real reasons: utter lack of accountability, family run nation, rampant corruption directly stemming from outdated, despotic and parochial policies, inequality in the rule of law, ad hoc decision making and lack of work ethic. These are of course to a large extent interconnected. The resulting economic malaise, supervised by the elderly PM, means lack of resources for creating necessary formidable defence.

真正原因在这里:完全缺乏问责制、家族管理国家、直接源于过时、专横和目光狭隘的政策的腐败、法治的不平等、临时决策和缺乏职业道德。这些当然很大程度上是互相关联的。结果是年老总理监管下的经济乏力,意味着缺乏资源来打造必要的强大国防。

Re: Why
by LightisTruth (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 12:53 AM


WHY U MAKING IT SO COMPLEX?


SIMPLY BLAME IN 1 WORD:


S0NIAc0ngress


为什么你要搞得那么复杂?


只要用一个词来指责就够了:索尼娅的国大党。



China
by arungopal agarwal (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:54 PM | Hide replies

India always had two great weaknesses, 1. not dare enough any time to attack except Hari Singh Nalwa(Maharaja Ranjit singh time) 2. India never had good weapenary.
India is sufferring with these two weaknesses even today.
Actually India is afraid of China.

印度一直有两个很大的弱点:1、除了马哈拉贾·兰吉特·辛格时代外,任何时候都不敢发起攻击;2、印度从来都没有好的武器。

印度甚至在今天还遭受这两个缺点的困扰。印度实际上是害怕中国的。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Re: China
by kunjan shah (View MyPage) on Jun 12, 2012 12:39 AM
china just needs to be a democracy. its not our enemy.


中国只是需要成为民主国家,它不是我们的敌人。



Annoy
by tls mani (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:38 PM

Remember chaacha & Hindi cheeni Bhai Bhai.
What foresight of greatwise leader

记住“中印亲如兄弟”的口号

真是大智领导人的远见卓识

..
by om shanti (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:34 PM

So long India remains a bold sovereign nation,there is no immidiate threat to India.

Whenever it becomes a stooge,it will also become a sacrificial_lamb ? Can USA rescue their helper the doctor who helped them track Osama Bin Laden.If USA cannot protect one man from 33 years of imprisonment,what will it protect India ?

Finally,USA has to depend on China for funds to meet its debt gap.China is the bank of the world today and USA is the self appointed Police man.

We can place ourself either as an informer_of the police or as a sovereign_power.Decision is ours.

只要印度依然是英勇的主权国家,就不会面临直接的威胁。

一旦变成了傀儡,将会变成牺牲品。美国会解救在追踪本拉登时提供帮助的医生吗。如果美国无法让一个人免于33年的牢狱,那么它又会如何保护印度呢?

最终,美国不得不依靠中国的资金来填补债务缺口。中国是今天的世界银行。美国是自封的世界警察。

我们可以让自己当警察的告密者或者让自己当主权国家。决定在我们手上。

Annoy
by tls mani (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:33 PM | Hide replies

India cannot afford to annoy even the Muslim hawkers on streets annoying china is a dream that can never be true

印度甚至无法承担惹恼街上的穆斯林小贩的后果。敢惹恼中国只是永远不会成真的梦想。

Re: Annoy
by Samir Bhagwat (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 04:35 PM
True. with a weak and brutal (towards its own citizens)administration, we are in no state to face china.


对,有着这么一个软弱和对自己公民残暴的政府,我们根本无法面对中国。



China wants to establish its Supremacy over india
by Sharad Gupta (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:17 PM | Hide replies

Its Incorrect to say that India's primary dispute with China is with regard to the land border. Its A Game of superiority

中国想要建立凌驾于印度之上的霸权。边界问题是印度与中国的主要争端的说法是不正确的。中印之间是一场角逐优越性的游戏。

Buddhist China
by Samir Bhagwat (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:06 PM

should be the next superpower. It will stem the onslaught of the Crusaders and their rivals.

佛教中国应该是下一个超级大国。它将阻止十字军及其竞争对手的屠杀。

Life wud be hell at china.
by Subrata Das (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 01:28 PM | Hide replies

India shud learn from its neighbour how to irritate others. So india must take the same policy for china. But chinese govt shud return back the land at Aru.pra. acquired at the time of war1962, otherwise normal life of china cud be a great danger without any war.

印度应该学习领国如何激怒其他国家。印度必须对中国采取同样的政策。中国人必须归还1962年中印战争时取得的那块土地,否则就是没有战争,中国的正常生活也可能面临巨大危险。

Re: Life wud be hell at china.
by PRK kulkarni (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 02:51 PM
Only corrupt free,Dynamic Indian leadership can challenge china not the nautanki cong.


只有清廉和有活力的印度领导层才能挑战中国,而不是腐败的国大党。



Leon Panetta's Offer
by Kaniarakath George (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:15 PM | Hide replies

India need all, not against anybody but for all nations. Peace an stability with human development are our aims. We need technology more than arms as deterent and that's welcome from anybody. George Kaniarakath

印度需要的不是反对其他国家,而是支持所有国家。我们的目标是人类的和平稳定的发展。相比武器,我们更需要技术来当做威慑。任何国家都会表示欢迎。

Re: Leon Panetta's Offer
by A INDIANBROTHERHOOD (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:17 PM
we need modi like man to disturb and divide the country to face china


为了面对中国,我们需要穆迪那样的人来扰乱和分裂国家。


Re: Re: Leon Panetta's Offer
by Samir Bhagwat (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:23 PM
The congress is doing a superb job in disturbing and dividing the country on communal and caste lines


在以宗教和种姓为根据来扰乱和分裂国家方面,国大党做得非常棒。



India can embrace US, but can't afford to annoy China
by Typhoid Mary (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:22 PM

What dreckish news is this? Tell me, can india with a pettycoat govt helming affiars, afford to raise even maldive's dander, let's not talk about china? However, please note, no prizes for guessing!!

这是什么垃圾新闻?告诉我,软弱政府控制下的印度可以承担惹恼哪怕是马尔代夫的后果吗。我们就别提中国了。不过请注意,不用猜也知道答案!

BJP and co.
by Chalta Hai (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:22 PM | Hide replies

These politicians which are categorized as far-right have a similar tendency:

1. They can not tolerate criticism
2. They can not respect women and in this case this young man is seen hitting a old woman.
3. They show hyper nationalism
4. They can not stop abusing and spreading lie

It happens in India too and in a big way. When they run out of arguments, they first abuse your thinking and then your family. These politicians which are categorized as far-right have a similar tendency:

那些被归类为极右的政客有类似倾向:

1、他们不能容忍批评

2、他们不尊重妇女。在这方面,你会看到年轻男子殴打老妇。

3、他们表现出极端民族主义

4、他们无法停止滥用和散布谎言。

印度也存在大量的此类政客。当他们理屈词穷的时候,他们会首先辱骂你的想法,然后就辱骂你的家人。这些被归类为极右的政客都有此类倾向。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Re: BJP and co.
by Samir Bhagwat (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 04:40 PM
every point you mentioned especially no. 2 (the old woman killed in Ramdev's meeting) applies to the congriess and not BJP


你所提到的每一点,特别是第二点适用于国大党和印度人民党。



DEAR PRIME MINISTER
by Chalta Hai (View MyPage) on Jun 11, 2012 03:15 PM | Hide replies

Mr. Manmohan Singh, Sir, You are an economist par excellence.. You might act when the West economy is plummeted while you have the opportunity to act now and provide biggest boost to India’s economy. One of the biggest culprits in keeping Indian economy in uncertainty is the volatility in the oil prices. Here is a tip off to fix this irritant once for all. The West is dwindling and sliding down on a fast slippery slope. Future belongs to Asian Goliaths - Pakistan, India and China. Who can know this better than YOU, Sir Ji?

India and Pakistan China together would form what would be world’s biggest ever trading block and a salivating marketplace. The oil rich Iran and the Middle East is ideally placed for both sides to interact with mutual bilateral trade. China will soon learn, as did the US before, that there is no substitute to M-E for supply of oil on both cost and price levels. Peace and friendship between India and China would automatically embrace Pakistan in the tie up. America is shooting in its foot with its in vain adventurism with ran and Afghanistan. It is trade that is now the driving force. Furthermore, China is sitting with world’s largest foreign exchange reserve while Pakistan's economy is growing faster than America, India can have it for the asking. The oil producers would lay networks of oil pipelines and set up oil refineries throughout the Indo China land mass.

曼莫汉·辛格先生,你是个出类拔萃的经济学家。当西方经济一落千丈的时候,你会采取行动。你现在有机会极大推动印度经济。印度经济发展难以保持的罪魁祸首是石油价格的不稳定性。这是一劳永逸解决这个问题的提示。西方经济在快速下滑。未来属于亚洲巨人:巴基斯坦、印度和中国。先生,谁又会比你更了解这点呢?

印度、巴基斯坦和中国加起来可以形成世界最大的贸易板块和令人垂涎的市场。石油丰富的伊朗和中东的位置相当适合展开双边贸易。中国会像美国以前那样很快认识到在成本和价格方面,没有地方可以取代中东的石油供应。中印之间的和平友好自然会让巴基斯坦靠拢过来。美国在阿富汗的冒险行动是搬起石头砸自己的脚。现在的推动力量是贸易。此外,中国坐拥世界最大的外汇储备,巴基斯坦经济发展速度比美国更快。石油生产商将会在整个印支大陆上铺设石油管道网络和建立炼油厂。

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