从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

印度Rediff网专题报道:有关中国、美国和外汇储备的故事

2012-05-08 23:25 43个评论 字号:

中国出口,美国购买。中国获得资金。资金转而被投入美国政府债券,也就是借给美国。美国转而用借来的钱从中国那里购买产品。中国从中赚取美元。这些美元又被借给美国。如此一直循环下去,造成就中国巨额的外汇储备。Shonalee Biswas在印度Rediff网发表了一篇题为《为什么中国受到美国支配》的专题报道,她援引《乱世佳人》( Gone with the Wind)的最后一句台词描述美国持续向中国借钱的态度:坦白地说,亲爱的,我一点也不在乎。

原文标题:SPECIAL: Why China is at America’s mercy
原文链接:http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-uscrisis-special-why-china-is-at-americas-mercy/20110822.htm

印度人看中国和美国:外汇储备

外汇储备

“So how was the movie?” my roommate asked, after I had just finished watching the all-time classic Gone with the Wind.”

“It was nice. And I loved the last line,” was my reply.

“Last line?” she asked.

“Yeah, in which Rhett Butler, the hero of the film, tells the heroine, Scarlett O’Hara, ‘Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn’.”

“Oh, my. That’s some line.”

“Yeah, it is. And it’s so true even about the world that we live in.”

“There you go again, talking in that roundabout manner of yours. Please explain.”

“So let me start at the very beginning.”

“Oh. But doesn’t everything start at the very beginning?” she interrupted.

“Yes, it does. Can I continue?”

“Yes, of course,” she said.

“So somewhere over the last 20 years, China became the factory and the outsourcing capital of the world. Everything from Nike shoes to Dell PCs were made in China. A lot of this stuff made in China was exported to other parts of the world.”

“电影怎么样?”在我观看完永恒的经典电影《乱世佳人》(Gone with the Wind)后,室友问我。

我回答:“不错,我喜欢最后一句台词。”

“最后一句台词?”她问到。

“耶,电影男主角白瑞德(Rhett Butler)告诉女主角郝思嘉(Scarlett O’Hara),‘坦白说,亲爱的,我一点也不在乎’。”

“哦,不错的台词。”

“耶,是的。它是如此真实,连我们生活的世界也是如此。”

“你又来了,拐弯抹角地说话。请解释下。”

“还是让我从最初开始说起吧。”

“哦,一切事情不都是从最初开始的吗?”她打断我的话。

“是的。我可以继续了吗?”

“当然,”她说。

“在过去的20年里,中国成为了世界工厂和世界外包之都。从耐克鞋子到戴尔电脑,一切都是在中国生产。中国生产的大量产品出口到世界其他地方。”

“Yeah, I know. Like my laptop is ‘Made in China’,” she said.

“Hmm. But a major part of the Chinese exports was to the United States. For these exports the Chinese exporters earned US dollars. When these dollars came back to China, the People’s Bank of China, the Chinese Central Bank, bought these dollars and gave the Chinese currency renminbi to the exporters.”

I went on: “This helped in maintaining a peg between the Chinese renminbi (also known as the Yuan) and the US dollar.”

“Peg? What has a ‘peg’ got to do with currencies?” my roommate interrupted again.

“That wasn’t funny at all. The Chinese government ensured that the US dollar could be converted into the renminbi at a fixed rate. One dollar was worth 8.27 renminbi between1997 to 2005. Now how did this work?”

“Yeah. How did it work? I haven’t understood this at all!”

她说:“耶,我知道。就像我的笔记本是中国产的。”

“嗯,不过中国出口大部分面向美国。中国出口商从中赚取美元。这些美元进入中国后,中国央行进行收购,为出口商换取人民币。”

我继续说:“这帮助人民币钉住美元。”

室友又打断我的话:“钉住?它和货币有什么关系吗?”

“那并不好笑。中国确保美元能够以固定汇率兑换成人民币。在1997年至2005年期间,1美元价值8.27人民币。现在呢?”

“耶,怎么样了?我一点也没有理解。”

“See, if a normal currency market functions, things would work like this. The Chinese exporter exports goods to the United States. He earns dollars in the process. But his expenses are in China. He has to pay taxes in China. And so he needs the renminbi.”

“So,” I said, “when he gets his money back to China he converts those dollars into renminbi. Now with exports growing big time in China, every time dollars are converted into renminbi, the demand for renminbi goes up. With the demand for renminbi going up, the renminbi gains in value against the US dollar and this would have hurt the exporters.”

“I still don’t understand,” she replied.

“Okay, let me give you an example. Let’s say an exporter exports goods worth a million dollars to the US in the year 2004. When he gets the money back into China he gets 8.27 million renminbi (1million x 8.27). Now for the sake assumption, let us assume that the demand for the renminbi has gone up and one dollar is now worth only eight renminbi now. In this case the exporter earns only 8 million renminbi instead of the 8.27 million he earned earlier. So if the domestic currency appreciates the exporters tend to lose.”

“瞧,如果货币市场正常运作,事情就会这样展开。中国出口商向美国出口产品,从中赚取美元。但是它的开销是在中国,必须在中国纳税。所以需要人民币。“

我说:“所以,当它把资金带回中国后,它把那些美元兑换成人民币。现在随着中国出口越来越多,美元都被兑换成人民币,所以人民币需求上涨。随着人民币需求上涨,人民币相对美元升值。这让出口商遭受损失。”

“我仍然不理解,”她回答。

“好的,我给你举一个例子。比如说一家出口商于2004年向美国出口价值100万美元的产品。当把美元带回中国后,它获得827万人民币。假设人民币需求上涨,1美元现在只能兑换8人民币。这种情况下,出口商只赚800万人民币,而不是先前的827万人民币。所以如果国内货币升值,出口商将遭受损失。”

“Now I get it,” she replied with an expression of relief on her face.

“So the central bank keeps buying dollars and at the same time they ensure that there are enough renminbi in the market, so that the renminbi does not appreciate. But as a result of all the dollar-buying, the Chinese central bank has built up a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves. The Chinese foreign exchange reserves at the end of June 2011, stood at $3.2trillion, and that’s a lot of money,” I said.

“But is all that money lying in the vaults of the Chinese central bank?”

“Not at all. If it was lying in the vaults of the Chinese central bank, it wouldn’t be earning any return. Of the nearly $3.2 trillion, nearly $2 trillion has been invested in financial securities issued by the US government and its entities. This money over the years has helped the US government finance its fiscal deficit. Fiscal deficit is the difference between what a government earns and what it spends. This is financed by issuing financial securities referred to as government bonds, which pay a certain rate of interest to the investor.”

“我现在懂了,”她回答,脸上露出安慰的表情。

我说:“所以央行持续购买美元,同时确保市场上有足够的人民币。人民币因此没有升值。但是购买美元的结果是中国央行积累了巨额的外汇储备。2011年6月底,中国外汇储备达到3.2万亿美元,这可是一笔大钱。”

“但是所有资金是否安放在中国央行的金库?”

“不完全是。如果搁置在中国央行的金库,不会有任何收益。在接近3.2万亿美元中,将近2万亿美元被投资在美国发行的金融证券。这些资金多年以来帮助美国政府填平财政赤字。财政赤字是政府所赚和所花的差额。美国通过发行政府债券来为财政赤字融资。购买债券的投资者获得一定比例的利息。”

“Okay. That’s interesting. So what has been happening all along?”

“China exports, US buys. China gets the money. The money is in turn invested in US government bonds, i.e. lent to the US. The US, in turn, buys goods from China from the money that is lent, and China earns dollars in the process. These dollars are again lent to the US and so the cycle continues.”

“Oh, that’s a lovely I scratch your back and you scratch mine, kind of routine that has been developed,” she remarked.

“Yes, it is. So that has led to China having nearly $2 trillion of their foreign exchange reserves in US dollar-based assets.”

“And is that a problem?”

“Yes, it is. The total government debt of the US is now around $14.3 trillion. Other than China, the other big debtors of the US are Japan, Saudi Arabia, etc. And the US government wants to raise more debt. On August 2, 2011, the United States passed a law which allowed it to increase the debt level of the government by $2.4 trillion from the current level of $14.3 trillion. With this the debt to gross domestic product ratio of the US is almost 100 per cent now.”

“好的,那是有趣的。所以发生了什么?”

“中国出口,美国购买。中国获得资金。资金转而被投入美国政府债券,也就是借给美国。美国转而用借来的钱从中国那里购买产品。中国从中赚取美元。这些美元又被借给美国。所以一直如此循环。”

她评论:“哦,真有趣,我挠你的背,你挠我的背。就像是制定好的例行常规。”

“是的。所以它导致中国接近2万亿美元外汇储备存在美元资产上。”

“那是个问题吗?”

“是的,美国政府债券总额如今大约14.3万亿美元。除了中国,美国的其他大的债务国是日本、沙特等。美国政府想要借更多的债务。2011年8月2日,美国通过一项法律,允许政府债务水平在14.3万亿美元的水平上提高2.4万亿美元。美国的债务占国内生产总值比率随之接近100%。”

“And that’s why the rating agency Standard and Poor’s downgraded US government debt (basically financial securities issued by the US government to finance its fiscal deficit) to AA+ from its current AAA rating, a rating it first awarded the US way back in 1941. AAA rating is the best rating any financial security can get from Standards & Poors. It tells the investor that any financial security with an AAA rating is the safest security to invest in with chances of default being next to zero. AA+ rating is one level lower, and hence a tad riskier,” I explained further.

“So that means that the debt has reached dangerous proportions now?” she asked.

“Yes, it has. Other than borrowing money big time, the US government has also gone ahead and printed a lot of US dollars since the financial crisis began. Estimates suggest that $2.3 trillion of the money has been created since the September 2008, when the financial crisis first exploded. So both these things do not augur well for the US dollar.”

“And what is China doing about this?”

“Well, what can they really do! As the famous British economist John Maynard Keynes remarked, ‘If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, the has a problem.’ So China clearly has a problem. Of late, they have been making some aggressive noises about this. The Chinese rating agency, Dagong Global Credit Rating, downgraded US-government’s debt from A+ to single-A. AAA rating is the highest credit rating that the agency issues. An A rating is two notches below. A senior Chinese official even asked the US to ‘cure its addiction to debts and learn to live within its means’. Estimates suggest that for the first four months of this year, China invested nearly 75 per cent of its foreign exchange surplus in non US dollar assets.”

我进一步解释:“那就是信用评级机构标准普尔把美国政府债务(基本上是美国政府为了填平财政赤字而发行的金融证券)信用等级从AAA下调至AA+的原因。美国早在1941年曾经被评为AA+。AAA评级是标准普尔的最高金融证券信用评级。它告诉投资者,任何拥有AAA等级的金融证券是最安全的投资证券,违约的概率接近零。AA+评级低一个级别,所以有一点点的危险。”

“所以那意味着债务现在达到了危险的比例?”她问。

“是的。自从金融危机爆发以来,除了大规模举债,美国政府也印制大量的美元。有估计称自从2008年9月金融危机首次爆发以来,美国新发行了2.3万亿美钞。两件事情对美元都不预示着吉利。”

“中国对此是如何做的?”

“他们有什么办法!就像著名的英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯所评论的,如果你欠银行100英镑,那么你有麻烦。如果你欠银行100万英镑,那么银行有麻烦。所以中国明显有麻烦。最近,他们在这个问题上积极鼓噪。中国信用评级机构大公国际把美国政府债务等级从A+下调至A。AAA是这家机构的最高信用评级。A评级较之低了两个等级。中国一名高级官员甚至要求美国不要迷恋债务,学会量入为出。有预计称,在今年的前4个月里,中国将接近75%的外汇剩余投入非美元资产。”

“So they are getting aggressive with the US, the Chinese are?”

“Yes, they are. But where else will they go? Europe is in big trouble anyway. Plus the kind of foreign exchange they generate, only the US bond markets have the ability to absorb. There has been news going around that they are quietly buying gold, other metals and physical assets as well. But these markets are not big enough to satisfy Chinese demand.”

“So that leaves them very vulnerable, if the US dollar were to crash?” asked my friend.

“Yes, it does. They are in a Catch-22 situation. As far as the US is concerned, it can default on all the money it owes to China or happily continue to borrow more and even tell China: ‘Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn’.”

“所以中国人对美国变得更加咄咄逼人?”

“是的。但是他们能转向何处?欧洲深陷困境。此外中国创造的外汇储备规模也只有美国债券市场有能力吸收。有消息传言称中国人正悄悄地购买黄金、其他贵金属和有形资产。但是这些市场不足以满足中国人的需求。”

“所以他们变得非常脆弱。如果美元奔溃?”我的朋友问到。

“是的。他们身处无法脱身的困境。就美国而言,美国可以拒绝支付所有欠中国的钱,或者继续开心的借更多钱,甚至告诉中国:坦白地说,亲爱的,我一点也不在乎。”

以下是印度网民的评论:

Well explained for novices
by Sachin Nair (View MyPage) on Aug 30, 2011 05:06 PM

You have explained in a simple n lucid language to all those who are not much aware of this. Yes the article has not talked of how Govt of China is using its dollar pile up to finance Greece which was on the verge of collapse, buying large physical assets abroad, buying influence in troubled lands, spending incessantly (wasting rather) on hinterland development. Read Chinas Ghost cities… All of this without inherent demand… China will also pay a price sooner or later. But for the US… well that nation has to realise that the Concept of Living within ones means does have some meaning to it…

We will need a new set of Brettenwoods and new Financial system for the world in a few years. Structurally the present economic and world order cannot be led by a 19th Century system…

你以清晰易懂的语言向不深谙这方面知识的人解释。然而,这篇文章没有谈及中国如何使用累积的美元资助濒临破产的希腊,购买大量海外有型资产,在动荡不安的地区增加影响力、不间断地在内地发展上投资。看看中国的鬼城…所有都没有固有的需求…中国也将迟早付出代价。对于美国来说…那个国家必须意识到量入为出这个概念确实有一些意义…

几年内,我们需要一套新的布雷顿森林体系和新的世界金融系统。从结构上来说,当前经济和世界秩序不能由19世纪的体制领导。

china has diversified its export
by Jugal Ahuja (View MyPage) on Aug 28, 2011 11:03 AM

from 2008 when recession hit usa,& EU,china realised that the days of massive exports to them were coming to an end. they therefore started promoting new markets like turkey, mexico, brazil, russia, argentina, egypt, sudan, nigeria, south africa, venezuela etc. today china is the biggest trade partner of all these countries. china’s gdp in 2010 was over$ 5 trillion,it was because it had diversified its trade to these new markets,some business friends of mine who have visited some of the countries mentioned above say that the markets there are flooded with chinese goods, chinese cars are seen on their roads.

i had the privilege to attend world expo 2010 shanghai, saw many businessmen, industrialist, bureaucrats, ministers of latin american & african countries flooding the expo, orders to the tune of billions of $ were given to chinese companies .moreover MOU’s were also signed between china & these countries .even for india china is its largest trading partner in 2009, & again in 2010.computers,its accessories,mobile handsets, every type of electrical/electronic goods etc bear the label”made in china”. china for the last 3 years has put emphasis on its domestic market, it has a middle class of over 400 million.it is the largest market for automobiles, mobiles, computers, steel, cement, internet etc. so even if usa dips,china will be hurt but it has the resilence to come out of it.india has to watch out as its BPO, IT outsourcing is 80% dependent on usa.

当2008年经济衰退袭击美国、欧洲的时候,中国意识到大规模向美欧出口的时代结束了。所以他们开始促进新市场,比如土耳其、墨西哥、巴西、俄罗斯、阿根廷、埃及、苏丹、尼日利亚、南非、委内瑞拉等。中国今天是这些国家的最大贸易伙伴。中国的贸易多样化使其2010年的GDP超过5万亿美元。我的一些生意朋友访问过以上提及的一些国家。他们说这些国家充斥着中国货。中国汽车开上了他们的公路。

我有幸参加了2010年上海世博会,看到许多拉丁美洲和非洲国家的商人、工业家、官员和部长们。数亿美元的订单交给了中国公司。更重要的是,中国和这些国家也签署了谅解备忘录。就连印度2009年的最大贸易伙伴也是中国,2010年也是。计算机和相关配件、手机、所有种类的电子产品和电气产品都贴有“中国产”的标签。中国在过去3年里重视国内市场。中产阶级人口超过4亿。是汽车、手机、计算机、钢铁、水泥、互联网等的最大市场。所以即使美国没落,中国会受到伤害,但是有走出困境的弹性空间。印度必须小心,因为它80%的服务外包和IT外包依靠美国。

China Economy is totally depend on FDI and goods Export to USA.If
by Loga (View MyPage) on Aug 24, 2011 06:46 PM | Hide replies

China Economy is totally depend on FDI and goods Export to USA.If any one failed both will sink. But Indian Economy is growing 9% GDP because of domestic consepction.Indian domestic savings rate is around 35% of GDP one of highest in the world.

中国经济完全依靠外资和对美出口。任何一国失败,两国都会陷入困境。但是印度经济因为国内消费而GDP增长9%。印度国内储蓄率大约是GDP的35%,是世界最高之一。

Not enough brains for Indians
by Rajniisclever (View MyPage) on Aug 24, 2011 08:17 AM | Hide replies

Most of the people commenting on this article do not have the brains to understand what the author is saying (sachin, narayanaswamy, sauron, david dak etc.) – the concept is too complicated for their simple minds to grasp !!

So let me try to explain it in simple terms:

Sachin borrows money from Sauron and using that money buts stuff from Sauron. This goes on and on – one fine morning Sauron says he wants all the money back and will lend no more, Sachin says he is broke and will not buy anything more from Sauron because Sauron is not lending him any money. Now Sauron has goods in his hands that he cannot sell and he goes broke – and his GROWTH stagnates – he has assets but NO GROWTH anymore. Imagine Sachin as the US and Sauron as China – China economic growth will go from 10% to ZERO overnight, which is why china will never ever stop lending to the US.

As an aside, if the US goes down, the whole world, including India goes down with it, of course China stands to suffer the worst.

大多数对这篇文章发表评论的人没有智商理解作者要说的意思。这个概念太复杂,以致于那些头脑简单的人理解不来!

所以让我简单解释吧:

Sachin从Sauron那里借钱,然后用这笔钱从Sauron那里买东西。这种情况一直持续。一个晴朗的早上,Sauron说想要回所有钱,并且不再借钱出去了。Sachin说自己破产了,由于Sauron不再借钱给他,所以他不会再向Sauron买东西。现在Sauron手上有货物,但是无法卖出去,所以破产了,发展停滞。他有资产,但不再有发展。想象一下,Sachin是美国,Sauron就是中国。中国经济发展速度将在一夜之间从10%降至0。这就是中国永远不会停止借钱给美国的原因。

另外,如果美国没落,包括印度在内的整个世界也会随之没落。当然中国遭受的影响最大。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

David Dak
Re: Not enough brains for Indians
by David Dak (View MyPage) on Aug 24, 2011 03:18 PM
“China economic growth will go from 10% to ZERO overnight”

That is your wish. China has kept growth of ~10% every year since USA and west got into GFC since 2008. You must either has lived in another planet or dum……..b. China does not raly on USA or any west country for growth. Even China lost those 1.5 trillion US$, China will still grow in the fast pace. If USa default its debt, it will not only lost face but the major holder of the debt – USA citizen will fight with the govt.

“中国经济发展速度将一夜之间从10%降至0”

那是你一厢情愿的想法。自从2008年美国和西方进入经济危机以来,中国每年保持10%左右的发展速度。你不是活在另一个世界,就是装聋作傻。中国发展并不依赖美国或者任何西方国家。即使中国损失1.5万亿美元,中国仍将快速发展。如果美国违约,不仅将丢面子,而且债务的主要持有人——美国公民将和政府拼了。

Re: Re: Not enough brains for Indians
by Ashwin (View MyPage) on Aug 24, 2011 10:49 PM
To whom are they going to sell to maintain that 10% growth? its one thing to be patriotic and another to keep eyes closed.

他们将向谁卖产品来维持10%的发展速度?爱国是一回事,闭上眼睛装作看不到是另外一回事。

Re: Not enough brains for Indians
by Sam (View MyPage) on Aug 24, 2011 11:26 AM
“If the US goes down, the whole world, including India goes down with it & China stands to suffer the worst”

This statement is true ONLY in the Short run NOT in LONG RUN. India is mostly domestic driven market and China is export driven.

Steadily China is increasing its domestic consumtion and reducing its export dependency on USA. In the long-run China’s economic growth will have LESS dependency on USA

“如果美国没落,包括印度在内的整个世界也会随之没落。当然中国遭受的影响最大”

短期来看,这个声明是正确的,但长期来看不对。印度主要是国内消费驱动的市场,中国是出口驱动。

中国稳步提高国内消费和减少依赖对美出口。长期来看,中国经济发展对美依赖将减少。

US will collapse overnight
by Sachin (View MyPage) on Aug 23, 2011 08:36 PM | Hide replies

I think the author is based in the US that is why she is having this positive attitude. Dont forget how the asian crisis happened. When the dollar falls & US collapes it will just happen overnight. Remember the might USSR disintegrated overnight.And that day is not far.SO people who are crazy for US citizenship should think over this.

我认为作者在美国,所以她持正面态度。别忘了亚洲金融危机是如何爆发的。美元没落和美国奔溃将会是一夜之间的事。记住:强大的前苏联一夜之间解体。美国的那一天也不远了。所以那些疯狂追求美国绿卡的人应该三思。

america nd its debts
by narayanasamy (View MyPage) on Aug 23, 2011 07:08 PM

it is very pathetic to c a giant turn into a dwarf. this is basically because america as a community has lived beyond their means. with all the high tech, knowledgeable economists such a thng happened. they hav to learn to live within the means available nd also learn to save some for the rainy day. this is to begin from every individual, the household, the corporates, the municipalities, the state governments nd the federal. one has to understand tat U CAN HAV AMBITION BUT NOT AVARICENESS. this is the main cause that has speeded up to this situation. my humble request to every one is to live within ur means nd also to save for a rainy day which makes u sound, which makes the municipalies sound, which makes the state governments sound and also makes the federal govt. sound. this is this simpleton’s view which the modern day economists nd who want to rule the world may find it difficult to digest nd accept. alas, this is world.

看到巨人变成矮子是可悲的。根本原因是美国社会入不敷出。发生这样的事情归咎于高科技和知识渊博的经济学家。他们必须学会量入为出和未雨绸缪。应该从个人、家庭、企业、市民、州政府和联邦政府开始做起。人们必须理解可以有抱负,但不能贪婪。这是加速困境的主要原因。我恳求每个人量入为出和未雨绸缪。这会让你、市民、邦政府和联邦政府安定。这是让想要统治世界的现代经济学家难以消化和接受的笨蛋观点。

This write must be a joker
by sauron (View MyPage) on Aug 23, 2011 02:24 PM | Hide replies

If Uncle Same does not care a damn why is it sending its Vice Presidennt to China.Mr Biden(VP) has not making any sound about human rights once in China which proves.Economics is not that easy that you just loan money and dont return.If the they dont return to China what will other debtors think.Should they not be right in thinking their money may not also be returned.In such a scenario any one can guess whats going to happen

如果山姆大叔毫不在乎,为什么要派副总统去中国。拜登先生在中国没有鼓噪任何人泉问题就是证明。经济学不是贷款然后不还钱那么简单。如果美国不还中国的钱,那么其他债务人会怎么想。他们不也会认为自己的钱可能要不回来。在这种情况下,任何人都猜得到将发生什么。

There is a solution
by Dipak Bose (View MyPage) on Aug 23, 2011 12:11 PM

China can buy things particularly from USA. USA should not allow China to buy treasury Bond any more. In that case China cannot hoeard the foreign currency, but got to spend it, not on Gold, but on products.

有一个解决方法。中国可以特意买美国货。美国应该不再允许中国买美国国债。在那种情况下,中国无法囤积外汇,而是花掉。不是花在黄金上,而是用于买产品。

what should china do with its money
by Supratic Gupta (View MyPage) on Aug 23, 2011 09:22 AM

Invest in india

中国应该怎么花这些钱呢。呃…在印度投资吧

Wonderful
by sam (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 10:03 PM | Hide replies

Nice article, people who say that China will eat US, fact is China is at US mercy. They have no option but keep on giving US money. Even if the credit goes negative then also China will have to bail out US to keep it self a float.

不错的文章。人们说中国将吃掉美国。事实是中国受到美国支配。中国没有选择,只好一直借钱给美国。即使美国信用评级变成负面,中国出于自身考量也不得不救助美国。

Chinese trade with India
by Subhash Chavan (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 09:17 PM

Why worry about USA and China trade? Stop Chinese import to India and see the difference in Indian economy.

为什么要担心美国和中国的贸易?印度应该停止进口中国货,然后看看印度经济会有什么不同。

chinese focus has already shifted
by ambi annaswamy (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 06:02 PM

in their anxiety to live rich, US and Europe have used cheap Chinese exports. whatever the article may say, the bottom line is that that USA and Europe have created a monster in China with it’s inexhaustibly huge foreign exchange reserves.

now Chinese are clever. they use these resources to buy minerals and metal mines all over the world including Australia, Brazil and South Africa and in many Latin American and African countries. they promote joint ventures with strategically located countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Burma,Iran…. and they will increase their hold as world power status. China will seriously attempt push own local consumption to drive their factories. and those investments in third world countries will fetch them much needed foreign currencies. and this will offset a drop in their foreign exchange earnings on account of depressed US and EUROPEAN economy.

为了过上富裕生活,美国和欧洲使用廉价的中国出口产品。不管这篇文章怎么说,归根到底美国在中国创造了一个拥有无穷无尽外汇储备的怪物。

中国人现在聪明了。他们用这些资金在包括澳大利亚、巴西、南非和许多拉丁美洲国家和非洲国家在内的全世界购买矿产和金属矿山。他们和处于战略地位的国家建立合资企业,比如斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦、缅甸、伊朗…他们将提升自己世界大国的地位。为了驱动工厂,中国将尝试推动本地消费。在第三世界国家的投资将为他们带来急需的外汇,从而抵消因为美国和欧洲经济萧条而少赚的外汇。

For Vital & Ashish sharma
by Sam (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 05:55 PM | Hide replies

Thinking US per capita income 6-7 TIMES higher then Indian’s IS A MYTH. It holds good only until US Dollor is strong

Purchasing power of US dollor is fast diminishing. US dollor is on the verge of collopse.

In a currencty CRISIS 6-7 times differance in per capita income CAN VANISH IN ONE WEEK. No need to wait till 2050

想象美国人均收入比印度高6至7倍。只要美国强劲,那就仍然有效。

美元购买力在迅速降低。美元正处在奔溃的边缘。

在货币危机中,6至7倍的人均收入差距可能在一周内消失。没有必要等到2050年。

Re: For Vital & Ashish sharma
by Arun Jacob (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 06:23 PM
u are wrong…that’s enitirely ur OPINION man….a 14 trillion dollar economy cant collapse overnight.

你错了…那完全是你的观点…14万亿美元的经济体不会在一夜之间奔溃。

Re: Re: For Vital & Ashish sharma
by Sam (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 06:45 PM
Arun

In 2008 in very SHORT time US dollor came down from 47 Rs to 30 Rs

Dollor from 46 to 30 means in Real term the 14 Trillion Economy became 9 Trillion. I hope you know Mathematics to understand how it happens

Arun,2008年,美元在很短时间里从兑换47卢比降低至30卢比。从45卢比到30卢比意味着,14万亿经济体实际上变成9万亿美元经济体。我希望你有理解如何算出来的数学知识。

Depak
by asdasd (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 05:18 PM

Sure it will hurt the Chinese if the USA choose to default, but what would happen to their own economy should the Dollar collapse?

如果美国选择违约,当然会伤害到中国人。但是如果美元奔溃,美国自己的经济将会如何?

.
by Communal Award (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 04:45 PM

If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem.
But if you owe a million, Bank has a problem.

如果你欠银行100英镑,你有麻烦。

不过如果你欠银行100万英镑,那么银行有麻烦。

If India can bring our black money back, we’ll have more money
by Grizzly (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 04:03 PM

But congress would not bring it back.

Bring back our money!

如果印度把黑钱要回来,那么我们有更多钱。

但是国大党不会把钱要回来。

把我们的钱要回来吧!

Why China is at America’s mercy
by iamindian (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:57 PM

Because both are at the mercy of each other

为什么中国受到美国支配?因为两国彼此受到支配。

MOST IDIOTIC ARTICLE EVER WRITTEN!
by Kabeer (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:37 PM | Hide replies

This is the most idiotic article ever written and misleads the public. It would have been better had the author of this article shuts his mouth up.

Fallacy #1:

1. USs outside debt is only about $ 4 odd Trln. out of this China holds $1.1 Trln and Japan $0.9 Trln aggregating $2 Trln.

BUT HANG ON THERE!

These investments are NOT repeat NOT necessarily owned

a. either by the Chinese Central Bank
b. Chinese Govt
c. Chinese Citizens

ALL THESE INVESTMENT ARE JUST HELD AND PARKED IN CHINA. That is a US citizen of Chinese Origin can buy USD and park them in China. A Chinese PRIVATE business organisation can buy USD outside China and park them in China. On all these investments neither the Chinese Govt nor the Chinese Central Bank have any control.

2. Fallacy # 2.

Ask yourself a simple question.

China like India is hungry for FDI. That means its own capital is not sufficient to drive growth. So how stupid and silly it is for the Chinese Govt and Central Banks to invest $1.1 Trln in US Treasury where the interests are the lowest and yet ask for FDI and pay higher rate of interest?

This author of the this article should be sent to a good school of economics to learn the fundamentals.

这是误导公众的最愚蠢文章。文章作者闭嘴还来得更好。

谬论1:美国外债只有大约4万亿美元。其中中国持有1.1万亿美元,日本0.9万亿美元,合计2万亿美元。但是打住!这些投资并不是由以下实体持有:
a. 中国央行
b. 中国
c. 中国公民

所有这些投资只是寄存在中国。那就是说美国华裔可以买美元,然后存放在中国。中国私营企业组织可以在国外买美元,然后寄存在中国。在所有这些投资中,中国和中国央行都没有任何控制权。

谬论2

问自己一个简单问题。中国像印度一样渴求外资。那意味着自身资本不足以推动发展。所以中国和中国央行在美国债券上投资1.1万亿美元是多么愚蠢。美国债券利息是最低的,反而去找外资,然后支付更高的利率?

这篇文章的作者应该被送到好的经济学校学习基本知识。

Re: MOST IDIOTIC ARTICLE EVER WRITTEN!
by Kabeer (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:41 PM
An American or a European MNC having business interests in China may park its profits and surplusses in $ US Treasuries and park them in China.

This money doesnt belong either to Chinese Govt or Chinese Central Bank

在中国有商业利益的美国或者欧洲跨国公司,可能把利润和过剩资金用于购买美国债券,然后寄存在中国。这些资金并不属于中国或者中国央行。

Re: Re: MOST IDIOTIC ARTICLE EVER WRITTEN!
by somnath gund (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:49 PM
right. That’s why it’s not just china problem. USD is being used as international currency is a big problem to world and Americans have not worked responsibly over the period

正确。那就是不仅仅是中国问题的原因。被当做国际货币的美元对世界来说是个大问题。美国并没有负起责任。

Idiot chinese worked hard and invested in dollar
by somnath gund (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:33 PM | Hide replies

Idiot Chinese worked hard and invested in dollar which is going to collapse. Smart americans used same money got though low yeild bonds and earned more in last several decades. So americans are international DALAL. They are using international wealth created for it’s own purpose. America used same money to attack nations and remain at number one.

愚蠢的中国人努力工作,投资即将奔溃的美元。聪明的美国人利用低产出国债换来的钱,在过去几十年里赚了更多。所以美国人是国际达拉尔。他们利用国际财富服务于自身目的。美国用这些资金攻击其他国家,仍然是第一。

Re: Idiot chinese worked hard and invested in dollar
by anil gupta (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:50 PM
dumb idiot chinese have been milked by americans for decades ! What is wrong ? Fools and money never stay togather !

愚蠢的中国人被美国人“挤奶”数十年!错在哪里?傻子和金钱本来就呆不到一块!

China lacks
by Cyrus Sodabottleopenerwala (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:31 PM

a cosmopolitan city like Mumbai

中国缺少孟买那样的大都市!

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Stupid
by Swami N (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:27 PM | Hide replies

article. China today just happens to be the largest buyer of US debt just like Japan was in the 80s-90s.

The bulk of US debt is still held by US public. So if US were to default it will hurt the US citizens more than anyone else.

China has actually used a lot of money to buy (oil, food, mineral rights) assets and politicians all over the world including US, central Asia, Africa, Australia and so on and it has done that very quietly.

It is also heavily invested in Chinese infrastructure specially highways, massive dams, power stations and new cities/towns. They have world class rail and roads all the way to Tibet and POK.

All in all China has gained much more than US in their mutual relationship. They also hold a large influence on many countries.

Case in point are all of India’s neighbors (Pak, Nepal, Lanka, Bhutan etc. with the possible exception of Bangladesh) listen more to China.

愚蠢的文章。就像80年代和90年代的日本一样,中国今天正好是美国债务的最大买家。中国实际上花许多钱购买石油、粮食、矿产等资产,以及收买包括美国、中亚、非洲、澳大利亚等国家的政客。这些是悄悄进行的。

中国也大量投资基础设施,特别是高速公路、大坝、发电站和新城。他们拥有一直通往xz和巴基斯坦的世界级铁路和公路。

总而言之,中国从中美相互关系中得到的比美国多。中国也对许多国家有重要影响力。恰当的例子是印度的所有邻国(巴基斯坦、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、不但等,孟加拉国是例外)更听中国的话。

haha
by georgeanobc (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:13 PM | Hide replies

asians cant match europe,usa.this is reality

哈哈,亚洲无法比得上欧洲和美国。这是现实。

Simple if the debt is too high..
by Oye Kake (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 03:09 PM | Hide replies

China should start buying land from USA; and consider that land as Chinese occupancy; Just like bank take over your house if you are not able to pay similarly China will take over USA if they are not able to pay.

简单,如果债务太多了,中国可以开始购买美国土地,把那些土地当做中国占有地。就像你无力偿还贷款时银行没收你的房子一样,如果美国无法还款,中国可以接管美国。

Re: Simple if the debt is too high..
by panduranga vittal (View MyPage) on Aug 22, 2011 05:00 PM
Banker have the strenth and money to attack a poor loan defaulter. But USA has 13000 nucler boms ( Choina has 400) and USA has 5 times power ful weapons than Chiana. So how can you ( china) get money from a man (USA) who outplays you in all the aspects.

银行有力量和资金去攻击贫穷的贷款违约者。但是美国有1.3万枚核弹,中国有400枚。美国武力5倍于中国。美国在所有方面都强于中国,中国如何从美国那里要回资金。

友荐云推荐
  1. If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem.
    But if you owe a million, Bank has a problem.

    如果你欠银行100英镑,你有问题。

    不过如果你欠银行100万英镑,那么银行有问题。
    ——————————
    在英文里面 有问题 意思更接近于 有麻烦
    在中文里面 这种语境里面有问题则是 有责任的意思

    所以还是翻译成 100英镑 你有麻烦
    100万英镑 银行有麻烦 这样更贴切一点

  2. 中国的这种投资+出口导向型发展模式 尽管有缺点 但不可否认 他最适合中国 而且出乎意料的将我们与美国绑在了一起 虽然危险 但是也让美国很难受 美国是唯一的超级大国 跟他绑一起 相对安全一些 所以中美两国现在经济上有高度依赖性 谁都不可能完全搞垮对方 因为这样就意味着自己离崩溃也不远了 这就是为什么中美两国在朝鲜 南海 台湾问题上谁都要让对方三分薄面的原因吧

  3. 现在的金融体系是以美元为基础建设的,当然是和美国捆绑起来最安全.日本,俄罗斯,很多欧洲国家甚至是印度自己也大量购入美债,怎么外国人一讨论美国不还钱的事好像就只和中国有关系?一副看中国笑话的嘴脸,真可笑。美国作为唯一的超级大国其经济的强大就是因为美元的霸主地位,美元若倒台中国固然损失巨大但美国更惨,印度的损失也不会少,真不知道他们有什么可乐。到时候人民币也许会成为东亚,东南亚的流通货币,可卢布呢?谁会认?

  4. 债务国敢对债权国说:亲爱的,我一点都不在乎吗?只有阿三才有这样的想法,军事上美国可以做无赖,经济上文化上也可以做无赖,因这些无赖勾当对美国而言可以从中得到最大利益,别国拿它没办法,但债券涉及到国家信用,并且债券可以抛售,正所谓人无信不立,作为个人尚且如此,更何况一个国家?中国面对美国百般刁难,也没用抛售美债作要挟,其实这些债券在中国手里,有如经济上的原子弹,是战略武器,不是战术武器,双方都知道厉害但不明说。
    假如美国订立条款,不允许中国购买美国债券,中国手上的美元只能购买美国产品,试想,这样做对谁有利?现在除了购买美国债券,中国手上的美元还在不断购买外国有价值资产,如果不是金融危机出现,谁给你出售优质资产?金融危机给了中国最大机会,让手上的美元得到充分发挥。
    印度人幻想美国破产,让中美实力归零,好让它鱼人得利,即使这样,它也不会得到什么好处,就像世纪大瘟疫出现一样,没有那个国家可以幸免。本人倒希望美国拿中国债券说事,做一次超级无赖,说句不还中国钱的话,中国大不了就是损失那几万亿美元,只是短期受损而已,而美国将付出巨大的长期的代价,反正央行里的美元与咱老百姓没啥关系,多几万亿和少几万亿咱一点也没感觉到它的好处。
    最怕是美国惹中国入套,发起战乱然后找借口说中国违反什么什么条约,然后顺理的把在美资产全部冻结充公,抢了你的还给个正当理由,让它的掠夺合法化。

    • 是的,美国现在想尽办法挑唆周边国家激怒中国,一旦中国忍无可忍进行对外战争,美国就可以以道义人权为理由冻结中国的债券,这样中国购买的债券就会变成废纸,美国则一分钱都不用还而不会失去信用,同时美国和欧洲公司会撤出中国,那时中国银行将没有外汇兑换欧美公司持有的人民币,那时候要嘛中国拒绝兑换而身败名裂,要嘛银行破产。。。

  5. 文章里有两个致命的错误
    1、是现在的人民币对美元汇率已经升到1:6.29了而不是文中所说的1:8,1:8的汇率是十年前的事情了

    2、文中称中国有2万亿美元以债券的方式借回美国,但2011年统计的中国持有美国国债为1.17万美元,不知道另外那8000多亿投资在美国的什么地方?

    • 还有几千亿两房债券。。。米国地方政府债券。。。 公司债券。。。。比如只剩下一半的黑石。。 不仅仅是国债丫。。。。 🙁

      有一种说法是我国大量购买两房债券才是08年经济危机的导火索。。

  6. 3楼说的不错,就是因为我们要崛起,就是因为我们要和平发展,所以我们要和世界上最具威胁的国家扯上更加复杂的关系,这些关系不仅仅包括政治,更包括经济、贸易、金融、文化、军事等各个方面,捆绑的越紧对他们的制约就越大,对我们就有利,我们所付出的代价就会越小(一个国家能和平的发展成超级大国是要付出代价的)所以我觉得我们的做法是高明的。

  7. 让政治经济绝对安全的办法是炮火,让绕来绕去有最终保证还是炮火,他妈的反正中国人似乎什么教都信,又似乎什么教都不信!谁知道现在是什么意识形态,和大流氓利益一致就G2,利益有冲突就C2,总之大流氓的文化程度比我们高.由他冠名好了.把非洲黑朋友打扮得花枝招展,让人家心甘情愿交出资源.我们没有大流氓的金融智慧,还得干活.斯佳丽认为,自己还有美丽的庄园可以让自己安静下来,跑了一个野男人怕什么?

  8. 大家可以看看陈经的《中国的官办经济》,这是惟一看对中国经济的书,02年写的,全部预测正确 !

  9. 在看到这篇文章以前,我对印度过多的是鄙视和轻视
    看到这篇文章的评论以后,我觉得印度会成为强大的对手!
    虽然或许是因为种姓制度导致印度上网人员水平比较高,也或许是小虎的翻译是选择性翻译
    但对比国内类似文章的评论,我觉得印度人的水平比较好。

    • 三泰虎翻译评论尽量兼顾各方观点。不过会过滤掉没有内容的评论、或者对国人没有参考价值的评论。这样既不浪费大家看无意义评论的时间, 也不浪费三泰虎翻译无意义评论的时间。况且文章评论要是几百上千条,三泰虎也不大可能全部翻译过来。

  10. 中国持有大量美国国债的确是个问题,但是我不认为中国金融界,管理者以及政府会没有办法来解决一切有可能给中国带来的损失的问题。。。中国人是奇妙的,这就是为什么西方世界理解不了真正的中国,预测不了真正的中国的原因。

  11. 这种雪球似的捆挷,政府似乎喜欢得要命,是否危险由他们说了算,他觉得危险就危险,他觉得安全,就有很多理由解释它的安全.农民工就是我的种性,谁说中国没种性?

    • 农民工比很多坐办公室做体面工作的赚钱多多了,而且农民工大不了自己村里还有套房,很多城市人拼一辈子可能都买布起一套房。别太小看农民工了。

  12. 看到这些留言就知道,我们国内的人大多数都不理解为什么我国会买这么多美国国债?还是印度人看得清楚,这些国债只是外资存在中国的,如果资金外流,这些钱是要还给人家的!!!!还有人狂叫怎么不分给全国人民?一群渔民,没有希望

  13. 中國持有大量美債 這就是為何美國至今不敢打過來的原因
    所以美國希望用洗腦媒體讓中國分裂,這樣就贏了,但至今很不順利
    中國的團結,將使美國不得不還債

    • 亲爱的Nega0,抱怨归抱怨,国是要爱的,就象三哥一样,整天骂国大党,但是他们非常爱国,这一点我们和他们没有什么不同.

  14. 印度小朋友的悄悄话真是让人感到惊心动魄,毋论钱是不是中国政府的,美国的量化宽松就是空前的抢劫.当中国经济专家嘻皮笑脸地说:”这是阳谋,而不是阴谋”时,真的觉得骑虎难下,
    “—-中国明显有问题”
    是的,中国有问题,中国上上下下心里明白,但出自两位小朋友之口,还是让人心里不是滋味!

  15. 银行有力量和资金去攻击贫穷的贷款违约者。但是美国有1.3万枚核弹,中国有400枚。美国武力5倍于中国。美国在所有方面都强于中国,中国如何从美国那里要回资金。

    ————————————–
    哥们,当问题要用核弹解决的时候,1.3万枚和400枚已经没有任何区别了,而且,这世界上没有国家能够幸免。

  16. 就按阿三的说法,中国用贸易的顺差去买了美国国债,这好比一个人用闲置的余钱去存银行,只是利息多少而已。或者另外的说法,是外国人和华裔存放在中国的债券等等。这些债券都是闲置的金钱吧?也就是说在中国的基础设施的巨额投资,以及在国际上买入各种大宗商品和投资国外的不动产等等那些是另外的一部分真金白银的资产。好了!美国如果赖账,意味着失去信用,即破产。那就是苏联式的解体,欧盟的债务危机,一夜之间失去霸权。而中国、日本、沙特以及其它所有拥有美元资产的国家,损失的只是一些闲置的金钱,虽然是血汗钱,很肉痛。但是并不一定危及国计民生的根本运行。而美国将一蹶不振。如果在这种局面下,美国已经没有能力以美元支撑他的军事霸权,不能讹诈威胁别国了。那么债权人依然可以保留追讨回债务的权利。同时中国还保持有完好无损的基础设施和海外资产,还有方兴未艾的中西部发展,那个巨大的内陆市场,还有其它东南亚、非洲、南美洲、等等的市场。中国的生产制造能力还在。中国的特有的国民储蓄还在,投资发展的能力还在。而美国因为债务破产无力维持虽然还貌似强大,却已经是瘦死的骆驼,尽管比马大,但是还能跑多久呢?再说,中国也不是要那个国家灭亡消失,中国只是要一个公平合理的,平起平坐的生存环境。如此,不正是我们的目的吗?所以如果二万亿或者更多一些能够兵不血刃争取到一个和平发展的50年100年1000年的机会。划得来!这就看谁陪的起了。我看,美国陪不起!至于核武器,谁也不要幸灾乐祸,那是人类的末日。

    • 一边嘲笑中国人的低收入,一边用着价廉物美的中国制造,没有中国人那个低收入,哪来这个价廉物美的中国制造.
      总不能黄牛拉车不看路地一直跟他玩下去,明里还逼人民币升值,暗里猛印钞票,不管升不升最后都升了.
      在他习惯举债的情况下,是中国哭着要求美国人继续过高消费的幸福生活,然后带着傲慢与偏见地对待中国.他妈的.

      • 至于美丽奸的产品,比如汽车,他的工人纯粹是大老爷,炮制出来的车子是带着它老子的霸气,但又不是脚盆和棒子的对手,试想,中国人不可能青一色地开着卡迪拉克吧!除非中国是沙特.草民的意思是三哥的解决问题的方法对于中美都行不通.整体来讲,镰刀和锄头美丽奸早就陌生了.

        • 真希望美元完成它的媒介功能后,成为众多交易的一种货币,而不是主导货币,最希望看到的不仅仅是日元直接兑换人民币,而是有卢比,卢布,等等的直接兑换.

    • 美国现在想尽办法挑唆周边国家激怒中国,一旦中国忍无可忍进行对外战争,美国就可以以道义人权为理由冻结中国的债券,这样中国购买的债券就会变成废纸,美国则一分钱都不用还而不会失去信用,同时美国和欧洲公司会撤出中国,那时中国银行将没有外汇兑换欧美公司持有的人民币,那时候要嘛中国拒绝兑换而身败名裂,要嘛银行破产,所以现在美国实际上绑架了中国军队。。。

      • 美国敢这么做中国就敢在战争中使用核武器。直接是对着美国的军队用。这招对付无还手能力的国家还差不多,对付有能力和美国一较高下的国家用这种损招就是拉自己一起掉火坑。

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  18. 天,4年后再来看你这条,发现美国在这3个问题上一点面子都不给中国了。
    或者应该这么说,美国现在自己都不要脸了。
    更不用说中美贸易经济问题和国债外汇问题。
    这就是中国进一步挤压美国传统优势的结果。
    美利坚人民舒服的太久了,现在稍微差一点点就受不了。
    而且憎恨现在正在拿回自己利益的中国。只因为不能继续享受。