从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

印度人眼里的中国:中国将成为什么样的超级大国

2012-03-17 19:09 46个评论 字号:

印度Rediff网发表了Arvind Subramanian撰写的一篇题为《中国将成为什么样的超级大国》的文章,称中国到2030年仍将只是中等以上收入国家,不过将在世界占统治地位。可是从历史上来看,在世界占统治地位的国家是富裕的,比如英国和美国。文章还列举了苏联的例子和软实力的必要性。印度人眼里的未来中国是怎么样的呢?让我们看看印度网民的评论。

原文标题:What kind of superpower will China be?
原文链接:http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-what-kind-of-superpower-will-china-be/20111028.htm

印度人看未来的中国:中国崛起是不可阻挡的历史趋势

不可阻挡的历史趋势:中国崛起(三泰虎配图)

By 2030, China will exercise dominance while still being only an upper middle-income country

Can a country that is also not amongst the richest in the world and not at the economic and technological frontier be a superpower?

That is one of the most common questions raised against the central assertion in my recent book that China’s economic dominance is more imminent, broader in scope and greater in magnitude than is currently imagined.

My projections suggest that by 2030, China will not be po#8744 indeed, its per capita GDP (in PPP terms) will be more than half that of the United States, and certainly greater than the average per capita GDP in the world.

到2030年,中国将占统治地位,不过仍将只是中等以上收入国家。

一个不处于世界最富裕国家之列、不处于经济和技术前缘的国家能成为超级大国吗?

那是针对我最近出版的书的核心断言所提出的最常见问题。我的断言是中国经济垄断的到来是更加迫近的,比当前想象的范围更广、影响更深,

我的预测是,到2030年……中国的人均GDP(购买力平价衡量)将超过美国的一半,肯定比世界人均国内生产总值更高。

China’s economic dominance will still be unique, because historically, the dominant powers (the United Kingdom and United States) have been rich, indeed amongst the richest relative to their competitors, when they have been dominant.

In China’s case that will not be so. But neither will it be a case of a poor country wielding power. China will be a middle-income or upper-middle-income country.

So, perhaps China’s future economic dominance should more aptly be described as that of a “precocious” rather than “premature” superpower as Martin Wolf of the Financial Times has described China.

中国的经济优势将是独特的,因为在历史上,占统治地位的国家(英国和美国)是富裕的。在占统治地位的时候,这些国家相对于竞争者确实处于最富裕国家之列。

就中国而言,情况并非如此,但也不会出现穷国掌权的情况。中国将是一个中等收入或者中高收入国家。

所以,就像金融时报的马丁·沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)对中国描述的那样,中国未来的经济垄断可能应该更恰当的描述为“早熟的”,而不是“不成熟的”。

But is precocious superpowerdom even possible? History is clearly on the side of those who believe that dominance requires a high standard of living. Why might this be the case?

First, a poor country might be inwardly focused because the tasks of maintaining internal stability and achieving a higher standard of living are the government’s major if not exclusive preoccupation.

In this case, projecting power internationally will have to be subordinated to addressing more pressing domestic challenges.

Internal fragility sits uneasily, or is just downright incompatible, with external dominance.

Second, a poor country might not be able to raise the resources – at least on a sustained basis – for the projection of power internationally.

The classic example is military resources. These will have to be financed.

但“早熟的”超级大国是否有可能出现?历史明显是站在那些相信垄断需要高标准生活的人的那一边。为什么情况可能会这样?

首先,即使维持内部稳定和获得更高生活标准不是政府的唯一任务,也是政府的主要任务。所以,穷国可能更加专注内部。

既然这样,在国际上投送力量将不得不让位于处理更加紧迫的内部挑战。

内部脆弱让人坐立不安,或者与对外统治完全不相容。

其次,穷国可能没有能力为国际投送力量筹集资源——它至少应该是可持续的。

典型的例子是军事资源。这些必须有财政支持。

But the poorer a country, the more difficult it might be to tax the people to raise resources.

For example, tax revenues generally rise with the level of development. Russia sustained military dominance for some time beyond its underlying economic potential, but eventually economics caught up with geopolitics.

North Korea is a more extreme example of external power being incommensurate with internal stability and wealth. North Korea can be a nuisance, a country that can cause trouble, but hardly one that can exercise international dominance.

A third reason why a poor country cannot project dominance is that it may not have the “soft power” attributes – such as democracy, open society, and pluralistic values – for dominance.

但是,一个国家越穷,它通过向人们征税来筹集资源可能就越困难。

比如,税收一般随着发展水平的提高而提高。在超出经济潜力的情况下,俄罗斯的军事统治持续了一段时间,不过经济最终缠上了地缘政治学。

朝鲜是一个外部力量与内部稳定和财富不相称的更极端例子。朝鲜可能是个令人讨厌的国家,可能引起麻烦,但几乎不可能实行国际统治。

穷国无法实行统治的第三个原因是可能不具备统治需要的“软实力”要素——比如民*主、开放的社会、多元价值等。

Put differently, the leadership that comes with dominance is only really possible if it inspires followership.

And followership comes when the dominant country stands “for” something that commands universal or near-universal appeal.

The fourth reason, related to the previous attribute, is that only a rich country – which by definition is at the frontier of economic and technological possibilities – can be a fount or source of ideas, technology, institutions, and practices for others to follow and absorb.

A poor country is less likely to be such a model worthy of emulation and an inspiration to follow.

换句话说,随着统治而来的领导地位只有能激励别国追随才真正可能。

当占主宰地位的国家“代表”具有普遍或者近乎普遍吸引力的某物时,追随现象就会出现。

第四个原因与前面的属性相关,即只有处在经济和技术潜能前缘的富裕国家才可能是供其他国家跟随和吸收的创意、技术、体系和实践的源泉或者来源,

穷国是不大可能成为值得模仿和灵感跟随的模范国家。

So, clearly, dominance is inconsistent with being extremely poor, but if one reflects on these points, it is worth noting that with some exceptions, neither does dominance necessarily require being among the richest countries.

There is, for example, no reason why internal cohesion, the ability to raise resources for external purposes, the possibility of being democratic, or possessing some emulation-worthy national narrative or values or ideals is inconsistent with being a middle-income power, as China is likely to be by 2030.

Moreover, China’s current low standard of living is entirely consistent with different forms of the exercise of dominance.

所以很明显,统治和极端贫穷是不一致的。但如果回顾这几点,值得注意的是在某些例外情况中,统治也不需要是处于最富裕国家之列。

比如,为什么内部凝聚力、为对外目的筹集资源的能力、成为民*主国家的可能性、拥有值得模仿的国家故事、价值或者理想等与中国在2030年可能成为的中等收入大国不一致,这是毫无理由的。

更重要的是,中国当前低标准的生活整体上是和不同形式的统治运作相一致的。

For example, China has used its surpluses to provide aid to and finance investments in Africa, extracting in return the closure of Taiwanese embassies.

It has used its size to strengthen trade and financial relationships in Asia and Latin America.

(China’s offer to build an alternative to the Panama Canal to boost Colombia’s prospects is one dramatic illustration of this phenomenon.)

More recently, it is to China that the world will have to turn should things turn ugly in Europe and should additional resources be required to bail out some of the faltering European economies. (“China is Spain’s best friend,” effused Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in April 2011, on the occasion of the Chinese president’s visit.)

比如,中国用多余的资金为非洲提供帮助和融资,得到的回报是关闭台湾大使馆。

中国利用自己的规模优势加强了在亚洲和拉丁美洲的贸易和金融关系。

(中国提议修建另一条巴拿马运河,以提升哥伦比亚的前景,就是这种现象的一个戏剧性写照。)

更早时候,当欧洲的事情变得糟糕,需要额外资源来帮助一些蹒跚的欧洲经济体摆脱困境的时候,全世界不得不转而求助中国。(2011年4月,西班牙首相萨巴德洛在中国主席访问场合中吐露心声“中国是西班牙最好的朋友”。)

Most strikingly, China has been following an exchange rate policy that has adversely affected not just the United States and Europe but a number of emerging markets that compete with China, including Brazil, Mexico, India, Turkey, Vietnam and Bangladesh.

But the rest of the world has been powerless to change China’s policies. If this is not dominance, what is?

Even the mighty United States has repeatedly threatened action against China but has not been able to carry it through. It barks but cannot bite.

The shift in the balance of power in the US-China relationship is especially striking given that it was only about a decade ago that the United States was able to muscle China into radically opening its agriculture, goods, and services market as part of China’s accession to the WTO.

最引人瞩目的是,中国正遵循的汇率政策不仅对美国和欧洲不利,也影响许多与中国竞争的新兴市场,包括巴西、墨西哥、印度、土耳其、越南和孟加拉国。

但世界其他国家无力改变中国政策。如果这不是统治,那什么才是?

甚至强大的美国屡次威胁对中国采取行动,却无法履行。它会叫,但不能咬人。

中美关系的权利平衡转移是特别引人注目的。只有在大约10年前,美国才能强力促使中国彻底开放农业、产品和服务市场,并将其作为中国进入世贸组织的一部分。

So two possible conclusions suggest themselves.

A form of dominance that naturally inspires followership and which might be necessary to create or build systems and institutions – as the United States did after World War II – might possibly elude China for some time, especially if it is unable to make the political transition to democracy.

But other forms of dominance – to change the policies of other countries and resisting change to its own in a way that can result in systemically negative externalities – are already being exercised by China at low levels of income.

As China becomes considerably bigger and richer over the next two decades, what should we expect?

所以浮现出两个可能的结论。

一个统治形式是能自然地激励追随,就像美国在二战后所做的,可能需要创造或者建立体制和机构。中国可能在一段时间里避开这种形式,特别是在它无法做出民*主政治转型的时候。

另一个统治形式是改变其他国家的政策和抵制自身政策的改变。这种方式可能导致系统性的负面外部效果。低收入水平的中国已经在实施这种形式的统治。

随着中国将在未来二十年里变得强大得多和富裕得多,我们可以对其期望什么?

以下是印度网民的评论

No.1 ?????????
by Herry (View MyPage) on Nov 01, 2011 09:26 AM | Hide replies

Difference between US and China US No.1 Economy – All the countries depend on it… If China becomes no.1 – it depends on all other countries….thats the difference….

美国和中国之间的差异:美国经济第一——所有国家都依赖它;如果中国成为第一,它依赖所有其他国家…这就是差异…

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Re: No.1 ?????????
by shyam ale (View MyPage) on Nov 06, 2011 06:01 PM
how all the countries depend on us…actually us is depend on china and other powerful countries to maintain there economy by selleing there reserve…. and low cost goods from china.

怎么会所有国家依赖美国…事实上,美国依赖中国和其他强国出卖储备金来维持美国经济…还依赖来自中国的廉价产品。

 

That is good news 🙂
by catchmeifucan (View MyPage) on Nov 01, 2011 03:41 AM | Hide replies

China will be a super power of unimaginable magnitude is good news to us Indians as by 2030, China would have conquered India and we will be chinese by then 🙂 Thanks Congress.. for making India the second biggest economy in the world

对于我们印度人来说,中国将成为规模难以想象的超级大国是好消息。因为到2030年,中国应该已经征服印度了。我们到时候是中国人:) 感谢国大党…让印度成为世界第二大经济体。

Re: That is good news 🙂
by punter ponting (View MyPage) on Nov 01, 2011 06:18 AM
Now start learning chinese, and eating pork…

现在开始学习中文和吃猪肉…

 

None can predict.
by shiva (View MyPage) on Oct 31, 2011 06:48 AM | Hide replies

It is like asking a poor man, how he will be if he becomes very rich. What he says will hardly be realised in the end. He can be the nicest, filial to the core, generous etc. But when he becomes rich; well, he will just be different. Most becomes slaves to wealth. People do change over time, especially, when one is loaded.

Likewise, China will just act its new found strength. What is the use of power and money if one remains the same? That is human nature; after all, countries are led by humans with all their foibles. So expect the unexpected!

If we become rich, our attitudes also will change. There will be newer problems when our stomachs are full! But for us, we have neighbours who will not allow us any luxury. Also, our dirty politics to bring us down! Just look at the postings in this site, aren’t they nauseating to the core?

So, none can say how China will act. When they have a free rein, they can be just different. And also, there are many poor who will suck up to them for favours! Hopefully, we are not one of them!

(没人可以预测)。这就像问一名穷人自己变富后将会怎样。他所说的最终几乎不会实现。他可能会友好、孝顺之至、大方等。但是当变富后,他可能会不同。大多少情况下会成为财富的奴隶。人们确实随着时间而改变,特别是当这个人变得阔绰的时候。

同样地,中国将行使自己新发现的力量。如果仍然照旧,那么权利和金钱有什么用呢?那是人类本性。毕竟,国家是由拥有人类所有弱点的人领导的。所以,接受意料之外的事情吧。

如果我们变得富裕,我们的态度也会改变。当我们的肚子填饱的时候,新的问题将会出现!对于我们来说,邻国不允许我们享受任何奢侈。此外,我们肮脏的政治击垮我们!看看这个网站上的评论,这些不是令人恶心至极吗?

所以,没人说得来中国将怎么做。当他们可以随心所欲的时候,他们会不同的。此外,将会有许多穷国拍他们的马屁,以求获得恩宠!但愿我们不是其中之一!

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

 

China wants to be a hegemonic super power!?
by Ravi (View MyPage) on Oct 30, 2011 06:00 PM | Hide replies

But will it become one! IMHO! China will never be allowed to become one bcos of so many interlinked situations of so many of the rich & Middle income asian nations such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Russia, Vietnam, Philippines & Indonesia. So final outcome China will never become a superpower.

但是中国会成为超级大国吗!?恕我直言!中国永远不会成为超级大国,因为亚洲如此多富裕国家和中等收入国家之间有错综复杂的关系,比如日本、韩国、台湾(地区)、新加坡、马来西亚、俄罗斯、越南、菲律宾和印尼。所以最终结果是,中国永远不会成为超级大国。

 

Did China ever claim to be the upcoming super power ?
by Sonderaj (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 08:02 PM | Hide replies

Nope.
If you google it, you probably will find it mainly from Indian newspapers.

中国是否曾经声称自己是即将到来的超级大国?没有。如果用谷歌搜索,你可能发现它主要来自印度报纸。

 

Makeover
by Dev (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 08:56 AM | Hide replies

India needs large scale makeover of its cities and towns. China has already done this
Makeover= improvement of existing facilities. improvement in looks and usage.
(not all towns need it ..some are ok even now)

印度需要大规模翻新城市和乡镇。中国已经这样做了。翻新=改善现有设施、外观和改良用途。

(不是所有城镇需要翻新…某些城镇现在不错)

 

India
by Dev (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 08:42 AM | Hide replies

chinese dont need any media support. they know what they want and how to do it.
Indians dont know what they want..dream about this and cant do simplest tasks like keeping country CLEAN !

By just KEEPING COUNTRY CLEAN..Indian image and probably income can be DOUBLED!

(in other things actually country is not doing that bad and seems on track)

中国人不需要任何媒体支持。他们知道自己需要什么,知道如何做。

印度人不知道自己需要什么…而是梦想之,无法执行最简单任务,比如保持国家干净!

只要保持国家干净…印度的形象和收入可能会提高一倍!

(实际上国家在其他方面做得并不那么差,似乎已经走上正轨)

 

..
by om shanti (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 05:59 AM | Hide replies

Chinese know what they should do for the best of their country.

Our media should remind our leaders their responsibilities.People did not elected them time and again to loot the nation.When in the name of dummy democracy,the fedalistic and monarch1st rule will come to an end and will we be really working hard and honestly to convert our nation into a super power ?

中国人知道自己应该为国家尽最大的努力。

我们的媒体应该提醒领导人自己的责任。人们不会一次又一次的选举他们来抢劫国家的。在虚假皿煮的名义下,封建和帝王统治什么时候会结束。为了让国家成为超级大国,我们是否真的会辛勤工作呢?

Re: ..
by sam raj (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 06:16 AM
Media is feeding only negativity instead of directing the Govt towards the growth path, thought of Indian media has to be changed for the Welfare of Indian people

媒体只报道负面新闻,而不是指引政府走上发展道路。为了印度人民的福祉,印度媒体的思维必须改变。

 

duplicate
by krishna krishna (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 02:59 AM | Hide replies

china is a synonym for the word ‘DUPLICATE’..and no wonder they would b called duplicate super power..as they are projecting themselves. west will never accept chineese dominance even if they turn out to b ORIGINAL democoracy.no county will ever trust china..not even their society

中国是“山寨”的同义词…难怪他们被称为山寨超级大国…因为他们正如此自我展示。即使他们被证明是原创皿煮,西方将永远不会接受中国人的统治。没有国家会信任中国…甚至他们的社会也不信任。

Re: duplicate
by shyam ale (View MyPage) on Nov 06, 2011 06:24 PM
what make you believe that China should follow West…..western countries are devil. Beware they may destroy India in future also.

是什么让你认为中国应该跟随西方…西方国家是魔鬼。小心,他们未来也可能摧毁印度。

Re: duplicate
by David Dak (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 04:46 AM
That is your wishful dreaming. Chinese trust their govt. more than any other people trust their own country including indian.

那是你一厢情愿的梦想。中国人比包括印度人在内的任何国家的人都更加信任自己的政府。

 

Superpower China
by secret (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 02:46 AM | Hide replies

will inundate the planet with worthless junk that doesn’t work. All Chinese will be slave driven to produce this junk. Rest of this world marvel at the cheapness of this junk.

超级大国中国将通过不管用、没有价值的垃圾淹没这个星球。所有中国人将会像奴隶一样被迫生产这些垃圾。世界其他地区的人将会对这些垃圾的廉价感到吃惊。

Re: Superpower China
by secret (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 02:48 AM
China will produce dictionary too. Word “Quality” will be missing.

中国也将生产字典。“质量”这个词将消失。

Re: Re: Superpower China
by sam raj (View MyPage) on Oct 29, 2011 06:28 AM
China has the highest number of skyscraper in the world, every electronics item you buy from any leading Brands are made in China. The days of quality issues from Chinese products have gone, we are still living with the old mindset

中国有世界上最多的摩天楼。你购买的任何领先品牌的电子产品都是中国产的。中国货有质量问题的时代已经过去了。我们仍然生活在旧思维中。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

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  5. 我來自台灣,看到祖國的發展也令我非常感動,中國人終於富強了,中國共產黨是民族英雄,
    印度許多西方國家太過樂觀看待印度了,民煮將會害死印度

  6. “桃花坞里桃花庵,桃花庵下桃花仙; 桃花仙人种桃树,又摘桃花卖酒钱。 酒醒只在花前坐,酒醉还来花下眠; 半醒半醉日复日,花落花开年复年。 但愿老死花酒间,不愿鞠躬车马前; 车尘马足富者趣,酒盏花枝贫者缘。 若将富贵比贫者,一在平地一在天; 若将贫贱比车马,他得驱驰我得闲。 别人笑我忒疯癫,我笑别人看不穿; 不见五陵豪杰墓,无花无酒锄作田。”中国人与西方的不同,就在于从心底里面是要回归的。所以为什么要控制、统治?和谐确实是5000年的精髓。哈哈,当然不是那个河蟹。

  7. 印度人的思维有问题,专政不等于没有民主,他们对民主的概念不清晰,即使自由如美国社会,民主也就存在于选举的几十天。中国人追求自由与人权,但民主不等于就代表自由与人权。

  8. 印度根本就不是民主,众愚政治而已。居然还好意思自吹自己是民主。真是爆笑。democracy在不承认demos是印度而是某个教,某个群体的时候,democracy就已经死亡并蜕变为众愚政治了。众愚政治自称民主,这是对民主的讽刺和侮辱

  9. 我们正为了我们的祖国繁荣昌盛和自己家庭的富足而努力工作,我们正在弥补我们丢弃的时间而更加努力,我为了我的女儿想让她享受更美好的生活而努力,其实中印的人民都应该更努力为自己的国家、家庭而努力工作,只有这样才能改变我们的生活而不是抱怨

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  15. 印度人都这么无知吗?为什么这么仇恨中国??就因为62年败给了中国?印度仇恨对象应该是英国,英国殖民了印度多久,劫掠和压榨了印度多久?可没见印度人多恨英国,却以英联邦而骄傲!晕,民族自尊心那去了??英国临走时,把印度分列成两个国家,并把和中国的边境乱花一通。好让印度自己人都自己人的,也和北方的邻国中国有纠纷。以便英国和西方从中得利。也、不想让印度崛起,让印度常年疲于应付内乱和与邻国的领土纠纷。应为英国和西方知道,一旦中国和印度友好,或联盟,会对西方统治的世界是一种巨大的挑战.

  16. 咱们只是找回当年的感觉而已。领先几千年。底蕴还在!要不是东林奸党误我皇明,让满清鞑子侵我河山。咱还是NO1!最可恨的东林奸党!