从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

华尔街日报:中国工资上涨可能降低经济放缓影响

2012-07-19 22:10 25个评论 字号:

中国工资仍然迅速攀升,尽管经济放缓,但许多公司仍然招不到人 —— 这是劳动力市场结构性缺陷的证据,有助于中国调慢经济增速,却不引发政治不稳定和刺激国外消费品需求。据中国国家统计局数据标明,劳动力紧张的结果是,城市家庭的工资与去年上半年比收入上升了13%,农民工平均月收入涨了14.9%。劳动部第一季度对91个城市的调查报告显示,劳动力供不应求创下了历史记录,结果是较低的失业率。

原文标题:Wage Rises in China May Ease Slowdown
原文链接:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303612804577528873250642842.html#articleTabs%3Darticle

中国总理在四川成都会见了工人。

BEIJING—Wages are still climbing rapidly in China and many companies are having trouble filling jobs despite the sharp economic slowdown here—evidence of a structural shortage in the labor market that may help China adjust to slower growth without political instability and whet consumer appetites for foreign goods.

Reflecting the tight labor market, wage income for urban households rose 13% year-on-year in the first half, and average monthly income for migrant workers rose 14.9%, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. A labor ministry survey of 91 cities in the first quarter showed demand for workers outstripping supply by a record amount, pointing to low unemployment.

The tight job situation, which contrasts with worrisome levels of unemployment in the U.S. and Europe, helps explain why Beijing isn’t rushing to match the massive stimulus plan it put in place in 2009.

北京——中国工资仍然迅速攀升,尽管经济放缓,但许多公司仍然招不到人 —— 这是劳动力市场结构性缺陷的证据,有助于中国调慢经济增速,却不引发政治不稳定和刺激国外消费品需求。

据中国国家统计局数据标明,劳动力紧张的结果是,城市家庭的工资与去年上半年比收入上升了13%,农民工平均月收入涨了14.9%。劳动部第一季度对91个城市的调查报告显示,劳动力供不应求创下了历史记录,结果是较低的失业率。

中国人仍然有工作——

图表1:中国增长放缓,GDP每年增长率;

图表2:劳动力需求紧张,招聘:求职比率;

图表3:新劳动力萎缩,15-19岁百万人口,估计值

华尔街日报,数据源:联合国人力资源和社会保障部,国家统计局)

Back then, a crash in global trade forced large-scale layoffs in factories along the coast, and as many as 20 million migrant workers streamed home to inland villages, raising fears of social unrest that spurred the government to spend lavishly on high speed rail, road and other projects to prop up growth.

Thus far, the global slowdown isn’t nearly as deep as it was in 2009 when the world economy skidded into recession. Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that around six million new jobs were created in China’s cities in the first half of the year, and employment numbers for migrant workers also crept up.

以前,全球贸易的崩溃逼迫沿海工厂大规模裁员,2000多万农民工被迫返回内地家乡。引发社会危机的担忧,刺激政府花费巨额资金修建高铁、道路和其它工程来维系增长。

迄今,全球经济减速没有2009刚陷入衰退的那么厉害。国家统计局发言人盛来云(音译)说中国城市上半年创造了近600万个新的工作机会,农民工的雇佣数量同样上升了。

Rising wages also bring risks, though. In China, wages are starting from a very low base, but they are climbing fast. At current rates, China’s private-sector manufacturing wages will double from their 2011 levels by 2015, and triple by 2017, eroding competitiveness and denting the exports that have played a key part in China’s early growth.

Indeed, Boston Consulting Group calculates that China’s wages could rise above Mexico’s this year when factoring in differences in productivity between the two nations.

The transition to a higher-wage economy, with a bigger role for service-sector output and domestic consumption, won’t be straightforward. Tough policy decisions, including opening key parts of the service sector—like banking and telecoms—to greater competition, have yet to be taken. Some of those decisions require confronting powerful interest groups like state-owned enterprises and local government. The process will play out in years, not months.

不过,工资上升也带来风险。中国的工资从一个很低的基数开始,但攀升很快。以当前的速度,中国私营企业制造业工资到2015年将是2011的两倍,到2017年将是3倍,这将侵蚀竞争力、拖累出口——而出口是中国早期增长的一个关键要素。

波士顿顾问集团甚至预测,如果考虑两国生产效率差异的因素,今年中国的工资可能超越墨西哥。

依靠服务业和内需向高工资经济转变,不会是坦途。仍然需要采取更严的政策抉择来开放服务业关键部门,如银行业、电信业,来参与市场竞争。其中一些抉择要和强大的利益集团冲突,像国有企业和地方政府部门。这个过程将持续数年,而不是几个月。

The results will have consequences for who wins and loses from China’s rapidly changing economy. The same increases in wages that start to price China’s products out of global markets should also lift demand for imports of consumer goods. The main beneficiaries of China’s rapid growth so far have been commodity exporters like iron ore-rich Australia and manufacturers of advanced machinery like Germany. In the future, producers of high-end consumer goods in the U.S. and Europe could enjoy more of the benefits.

The move to higher wages is being shaped by changes in population and government policy. The size of the workforce has plateaued, demographers say, and will start to shrink in the middle of the decade, competition for workers.

China is committed to sharply raising minimum wages, which puts pressure on employers to raise salaries for higher skilled workers. Beijing also has increased requirements for severance payments, which discourages layoffs unless business drops severely.

谁会从中国快速变化的经济中获得成功或失败,随之而来将产生一些影响。把中国产品卖向全球得到的工资增长,同样应该会提升进口消费品需求。目前,中国强劲经济增长的主要受益者是丰富铁矿的澳大利亚、高端机械的德国等货物出口国家。未来,欧美高端消费品厂商应该会享受到更多的好处。

人口的改变和政府政策形成了高工资走向。劳动力规模已经到顶了,人口学家说,这十年中期开始衰减,将加剧劳动力竞争。

中国决定快速提高最低工资,此举逼迫老板们为高级工人提升工资。北京还对遣散费额外要求,如果不是业务下降厉害就不鼓励解雇。

更高的薪酬(私营制造业公司年均工资,美元计算;年均增长率)

In the past, breakneck growth—with increases in gross domestic product averaging around 10% a year for the past 30 years—was necessary to create jobs for the millions of young workers flooding into China’s job market each year. Now that flood is drying up, just as China looks to focus more on service-sector growth.

That dynamic helps explain why there have been few reports of layoffs, even though growth in China’s GDP has almost halved from a peak of 14.8% in the second quarter of 2007, to 7.6% in the second quarter of 2012. It also explains why China’s leaders appear more sanguine about slowing growth. “China’s potential growth rate has fallen,” said Chen Dongqi, a senior government researcher, adding that “7% to 8% is the new normal.”

China’s official unemployment rate was 4.1% at the end of the first quarter, though the data cover only urban workers and are widely regarded as unreliable. The U.S. jobless rate was 8.2% in June, and wages rose 1.7% in the first period of 2012 compared with a year ago. In the euro area, unemployment hit a euro-era high of 11.1% in May.

过去,飞速的增长——连续30年年均10%的GDP增长——为每年数百万进入中国就业市场的年轻工人洪流创造工作机会,是有必要的。如今正当中国寻求更多服务业上的增长时,工人洪流正在干涸。

这个变化有利于解释为啥很少有解雇的报告,甚至中国2012年第二季度GDP增长7.6%,只有高峰时期2007年第二季度14.8%的一半。这同样解释了中国领导人对经济放缓相当乐观。“中国潜在的增长率下降了,”资深政府研究员陈东奇(音译)说,“7% 到8%是新的标准。”

在第一季度末,中国官方的失业率是4.1%,数据只覆盖城市工人,而且普遍被人认为不可靠。六月份美国的失业率是8.2%,和去年比,2012年第一期工资上升了1.7%。欧元区,五月份失业率创欧元时代最高点11.1%。

Some of China’s largest private employers report rising wages and hiring. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., 2317.TW +0.46% which

produces Apple’s AAPL +0.32% iPad, added 82,000 to its mainland China workforce in 2011, taking the total to 998,599. Base salaries for factory workers at the company’s Shenzhen plant were 2,200 yuan ($345) a month as of February this year, up 10% from 2011, said the company.

Yum Brands’ YUM -1.05% KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants employ 400,000 workers in China, and are adding around 40,000 a year, the company said. The company reported 17% year-over-year wage inflation in the first quarter of 2012.

An April survey of 4,242 companies in China, conducted by human resources consultancy Manpower Group, MAN -1.89% found that the majority of companies intended to either hold their workforce stable or recruit more workers in the third quarter. Only 3% of the companies surveyed were planning job cuts.

一些中国最大的私营企业报告都提升了薪水和用人。生产苹果iPad的鸿海精密,2011年在中国大陆增加了8万2000名工人,工人数至99万8559人。该公司说,深圳工厂工人的基本工资今年2月份是2200元(345美元),比2011年提高了10%。

KFC和必胜客称在中国雇佣了40万名工人,每年增加4万名。公司报告,2012年第一季度同比工资膨胀17%。

人力资源顾问公司Manpower集团在四月份实施了一个对中国4232个公司的调查,发现第三季度大部分公司倾向于保持公司人手稳定,或者雇佣更多的工人。只有3%受调查公司计划裁员。

Chinese factories are being forced to invest more in labor-saving technology as wages rise, underlining the impact of the labor shortage. “The days of just adding people are over,” said Dwight Nordstrom, president of Pacific Resources International in Beijing, which operates 10 factories in China.

Underpinning resilience in China’s labor markets are profound demographic changes. China’s one-child policy, introduced in 1980, is starting to eat into labor supply. In 2005, there were 120.7 million Chinese people aged 15-19, according to United Nations estimates. By 2010, that had fallen to 105.3 million, and by 2015 it is expected to dip to 94.9 million.

The number of farm workers ready to head to city factories is no longer growing rapidly. A survey of migrant workers conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics showed the number relatively stable at 252.8 million in 2011, up 4.4% from 242.2 million in 2010, with the number working outside their home province growing even more slowly.

在人力缺乏的背景下,工资的上升逼迫中国工厂花更多的投资节省人力的技术。资源国际(PRI)在中国运作10家工厂,其北京公司的董事长德怀特·诺斯罗姆称:“一味增加人力的日子已经结束了。”

中国劳动力市场的支撑是深远的人口结构变化。1980引入的独生子女政策,已经开始侵蚀人力供应。据联合国估计,2005年中国有1亿2070万15-19岁的年轻人。到2010年下降到1亿530万,到2015年将降到9490万。

前往城市工厂的农民工数量不再会快速增加。国家统计局实施的调查显示,农民工数量2011年相对稳定在2亿5280万,比2010年的2亿4220万增加4.4%,跨省工作的农民工数量增加更缓慢。

Still, if export growth continues to fade, even high costs for layoffs and difficulties rehiring skilled workers might not prevent layoffs. Over the weekend, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned that China’s rebound isn’t yet stable and hardship may continue. He added that the government needs to provide financial aid and tax breaks to companies suffering from slowing export growth.

For now, though, the pressure on wages remains. Jennifer Cheung, an editor at China Labour Bulletin, a Hong Kong group that tracks labor disputes in China, says the economic slowdown was unlikely to put downward pressure on wage growth. “We seldom hear strikes where workers protest against wage cuts,” she said. “Strikes are more about workers’ demand for wage increases.”

如果出口增长继续衰退,那么即便高代价解雇和重新雇佣高技术工人的困难也难以阻止裁员了。整个周末,温家宝总理警告中国的回升仍不稳定,不好的日子还会继续。他进一步指出,政府需要为受困于缓慢出口增长的公司提供金融支持和退税。

而现在,工资的压力仍将存在。一个跟踪中国劳工纠纷的香港团体——中国劳工通讯的编辑Jennifer Cheung称经济减速未必给工资上升带来压力。“我们基本上没听到有游行抗议工资裁减。更多是要求工资上升的游行。”

以下是华尔街日报读者的评论:

PAUL HODGES Wrote:

Thanks for the article. I think its a bit inconsistent, though, to argue that people with average earnings of under $4k/year, as shown in your chart, will be in the market for “‘high-end’ consumer goods”. Asian Development Bank data equally suggests 96% of Chinese currently earn less than $20/day, ie $7600/year. So it seems to me the winners in the Chinese market will be those who focus on low-cost, affordable necessities? Or am I missing something?

谢谢你的文章。不过我认为有一点不一致:如图所示,平均收入低于4000美元/年的人们是否处于“高端”消费品的市场里值得商榷。亚洲开发银行的数据同样显示96%的中国人目前收入少于20美元/天,即7600美元/年。故我认为中国市场的赢家是那些提供买得起的低价必需品的企业?或者我漏掉了什么?

Eric Mao Wrote:

One omission makes this article nearly worthless: It doesn’t mention inflation and thus the wage increases are only nominal, not real.

一个疏忽让此文近乎没有价值:没有提到通胀,所以工资上涨只是有名无实的,不是真的。

Tony Carlos Wrote:

It is quickly reaching the point where US labor is again competitive with not just Mexico, but China also. If Chinese manufacturing pay reaches $4000/yr, that would support a US wage of $20,000. Yeah for us.

它很快会到达这样一个临界点,即美国劳动力会再一次具备竞争力,不仅是相对墨西哥,而且相对中国也是。如果中国制造工人4000美元/年,那么美国工资可以开出20000美元/年。我们的机会来了。

David Wu Wrote:

Some MBA interns wrote this article, nicely done.

However, I was wondering, while waiting in line for a Starbucks coffee every day for past two weeks in Shanghai (more than 150 Starbucks in Shanghai), that how much these people make to afford a $2.70 a tall coffee (~50% more expensive!) or >$5 a Frappy (9.5 of 10 in front me got Frappy).

BTW a Brook Brothers polo shirt was listed Y998 (>$150) and a Tumi travel umbrella was on sale for Y560 (>$88)

一些MBA实习生写了这篇文章,写得好。

然而,过去2星期每天在上海星巴克等候的时候(上海有超过150个星巴克),我好奇,这些人挣多少钱来支付2.70美元一大杯的咖啡(贵50%),或超过5美元的果汁刨冰(我前面的10个9个半人拿了果汁刨冰)

Alison Cheuk Replied:

I noticed that as well. Many thoughts. One thing in particular is, however, RMB is WAYYYYYYY overvalued.

我也注意到了。从中产生了很多想法。然而,其中一个特别之处是人民币远远被高估了。

Jose Calabro Wrote:

What ? The Commies’ wages are rising and Americans are told to give up healthcare and sacrifice their own wages In the name of “liberty” and “austerity” and “country” ?

啥?老共的工资在上升,而美国人被告知以“自由”、“节俭”和“国家”的名义放弃医保和牺牲自己的工资?

STEFAN SCHREIER Wrote:

50 years from now, perhaps sooner, wages and living standards in China will be higher that those in the U.S. or Europe.

今后50年,或许更快,中国的生活和生活水平会比美国和欧洲更高。

Kurt McFarlane Replied:

Not without more oil, water, coal, and phospherus.

要有更多的石油、水、煤炭…

Eduardo Alvarez Bilbatua Replied:

You say that as if it was a bad thing

你说起来好像是一件坏事一样

Bob Templor Wrote:

It would, temporarily. Eventually, it will cause general price increase. Then, there will another round minimum wage increase, and another round general price increase.

是的,暂时地。最终会引发普遍价格上涨。到时会有另一轮最低工资增长和普遍价格上涨。

Pierre Lemieux Wrote:

Like saying that higher ice cream sales may make the outside temperature more bearable — while, of course, the causality runs the other way: the hot weather leads to increased ice cream sales.

正如说更高的冰激凌销售量可能让外面的温度更能接受——当然,因果关系得倒过来:热天气会增加冰激淋销售量。

Gary Wraughton Wrote:

Labor shortage in China??? Probably because so many of them are in America on work visas … H-1A, H-1B, H-2, F-1, F-2, L-1, L2, EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, OPT, CPT, etc. A virtual alphabet soup of visas by which the Federal Government allows companies to bring foreigners here to take American jobs. And I don’t mean bean picking jobs. I’m talking about high wage white collar jobs.

中国劳力短缺???可能因为他们在美国拿了太多的工作签证了….H-1A, H-1B, H-2, F-1, F-2, L-1, L2, EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, OPT, CPT, 等等。联邦政府用一堆文字拼凑的签证允许公司招外国人来抢走美国人的工作。我不是说收豆子的工作。我说的是高工资的白领工作。

John Eidenshink Replied:

Walk in to any government office and they are filled with foreigners .

走到任何政府办公室,里面都是外国人。

Wilhelm Pappeln Replied:

“A virtual alphabet soup of visas by which the Federal Government allows companies to bring foreigners here to take American jobs.”

So you’re against legal immigration?

“联邦政府用一堆文字拼凑的签证允许公司招外国人来抢走美国人的工作。”

看起来你反对合法移民?

Daniel Sirolly Replied:

Most of “them” are not taking jobs that the US has too few of: they areemployed as highly educated engineers and scientists; the United States has too few of these type of scientific workers.
Not dime a dozen MBA middle management jobs that are too filled with empty suits; we produce too many of these jobs and too few of the former.

他们大部分不是抢美国需求少的工作:他们被聘为高级工程师和科学家;美国太缺少这类型的科学劳动力了。

不是那些虚有其表多的垃圾一样的MBA中层管理工作;我们有太多这种工作,而太少前面那种工作了。

David Hawkins Wrote:

Rising Chinese wages won’t just spur imports; more importantly it will spur consumption of domestically produced goods and services, weaning the economy off of exports. This has been a stated goal of the government for some time, and it’s quite surprising that this article doesn’t mention it.

中国工资上升不会刺激进口;更重要地是会刺激国内产品和服务的消费,摆脱经济对出口的依赖。工资上升已经成为政府一段时间内的既定目标,很奇怪这篇文章没有提到。

David Hawkins Replied:

That may be so, but it is the stated goal of the government to develop a domestic consumer economy. Also, many of those foreign brands are domestically produced.

可能是这样的,但是政府的既定目标是发展国内消费经济。同样,诸多外国品牌也是国内生产的。

Terry Carriker Wrote:

Mitt Romney and other GOP members demand wages be cut for US workers, the bottom 95%.

罗姆尼和其他大老党(共和党)成员要求减少底下95%的美国工人的工资。

Kevin Mourroe Replied:

Oh, you mean the bottom 95% with the houses, cars, tv’s, food, and 95% of global wealth?

Funny when we look at things in relative manners. Or at least face the truth and realize that being ‘poor’ isn’t so bad in the US.

你的意思是底下95%有房子、汽车、电视和食物的人?95%总共的财富?

相关的方式来看很有趣。或至少面对事实,意识到在美国“穷人”不是那么坏。

nick shroder Replied:

Yes, and there are some people that think the the bottom 95% have to much and feel that they should have it taken away.

是的,有的人认为底下95%人拥有太多了,应该拿走。

Tony Carlos Replied:

Got a source for that number?
Didn’t think so.
America has 39% of the world’s wealth, as of 2010. But our rich top 5% control more than 60% of that wealth, so the bottom 95% of Americans have less than 40% of US wealth. Do the math and that works out to our 95% having around 15% of the world’s wealth.
What does it say when you need to lie to make a point?

给个数字来源?别这么想。

2010年美国有全世界39%的财富。但是我们最富的5%控制了60%的财富,所以底下95%美国人只有少于40%的财富。算下就知道我们95%的人有15%的世界财富。

没必要说谎来证明一个事情。

Craig Mundo Wrote:

They have been cutting interest rates, as the economy is slowing, but with these rising wages, rate cuts is adding fuel to the inflation. The Chinese authorities’ hands are tied. They are playing with fire. Everyone assumes China will have a soft landing, but wage and other inflation, along with property bubble burst and bad loans at banks and deficits at provincial level will sink China.

经济放缓时,他们降了息,但是工资上升后,降息会刺激通货膨胀。中国当局被困住了。他们在玩火。每个人都认为中国会软着陆,但是工资和其他通胀,加上资产泡沫破裂和银行坏账,还有省级赤字,会把中国弄挂掉。

Tom Wang Replied:

Wages has been increasing for a long time already.
Despite that, inflation has been manageable for a very long time also.
Recent data (June) shows inflation down to 3.8% while housing prices has firmed up again.

工资已经一直增长了很长时间。

除此以外,通胀同样已经很长时间可控了。

最近6月数据显示,通胀低至3.8%,而房价再次回转。

Michael Woerner Wrote:

Chinese wages rising and U.S. employmen is falling. Sounds like the workings of a One World Government doesn’t it? Slowly but surely, like the shifting of sand dunes on the desert pieces of the puzzle start to fit together. While some think that would solve our problems it would only delay them. In manufacturing terms there will always be another China, and another, and another.

中国工资上升,美国工资下降。听起来像是个全球政府时代了,不是吗?

慢慢地,正如不停轮换的沙漠沙丘,拼图游戏的图板开始合拢在一起了。一些人认为工资的一升一降会解决我们问题,这种的想法只会耽搁他们。在制造业,总有另外一个中国,再另外一个,还有另外一个。

PETER FOLEY Wrote:

The Chinese government could copy the USA’s allowing a massive foreign invasion of third and fourth worlders (10-20million with counting those granted “amnesty” by the 1987 Congress) well over ten percent of the labor market…to keep wages below inflation as the perversion of the social contract here has.

Oh, I forgot, PRC has a surplus of 300,000,000 million peasants waiting to follow their Party leaders into 21st Utopian Commie planned Crony Capitalism, no need for importing a multi-culture Hot Mess guaranteed to lower every Citizen’s earning power throughout their lifetimes.

中国可能学美国那样允许大规模第三第四世界外国人进入,(1987年国会特赦了1000-2000万)远远超过劳动力市场的10%….正如这里反常的契约关系,让工资保持在通胀率之下。

噢,我忘了,中国剩余3亿农民工等着进入党领导的21世纪共产主义乌托邦计划的裙带资本主义,不需要通过引进多元文化垃圾来降低他们的收入。

Craig Mundo Replied:

Wages are not being raised by some entity intentionally. They’re rising because labor capacity is running tight. In addition, in response to the euro crisis, the Chinese authorities started cutting rates again recently, after raising them for almost a year. Ironically, we had the same situation last year. China started seeing inflationary pressures in early 2011. To bring it under control, Chinese government began raising rates. It did work for a while. They also imposed controls on property purchases etc, which exerted some more pressure on inflation. But towards the end of 2011, due to euro problems, China was afraid of too much economic deceleration and began cutting rates. Now this is bringing back inflation.

Hence China is in a bind. On one hand, if economy slows too much, people will become restless and the Chinese government is more afraid of that than anything else, particularly now with the transition from Hu and Wen to xi and Li. The Bo XiLai affair made things worse. So they need the economy going. But inflation really limits their ability to stimulate the economy and the jobs picture.

My belief is that Chinese government is desperate for. Resolution to the euro crisis, as they may be the bigger casualty out of euro in the near term. We will see what they come up with.

一些经济实体的工资不是有意提高的。他们升工资是因为劳动力开始短缺。而且,为了应付欧元区危机,中国在提息一年后,最近开始降息。讽刺的是,我们去年也有同样的问题。2011年年初,中国开始感觉到通胀压力。为了控制通胀,中国开始提息。该策略在一段时间起了作用。他们同样加强固定资产购买的控制等,给通胀施加了更多压力。但是到2011年底,因为欧元问题,中国开始担心太多的经济减速,开始减息。现在又把通胀引回来了。

因此中国陷入了困境。一方面,经济降速太多,民众会变得惊慌,中国对此再担心不过了,特备是现在权力从胡温迁移到习李。薄事件又添了乱。所以他们希望经济持续。但是通胀真的限制他们去刺激经济和就业问题。

我相信中国急需欧债危机的解决方案,因为它可能短期内会给欧元区外带来更大的伤害。我们将看到他们的下一步计划。

Tom Wang Replied:

China’s 1H2012 inflation was 3.3% while GDP growth at about 8%. Is this a desperate situation?

China sets a conservative target for the year at 4% inflation and 7.5% GDP growth.

Wage growth is not a new phenomena. It has been the background scenario for many years.

中国2012上半年的通胀是3.3%,而GDP增速近8%。这是绝望的处境吗?

中国设置了一个保守的目标,本年度4%的通胀率和7.5%的GDP增速。

工资上涨不是一个新现象。是一个好多年的背景。

Cliff Friend Wrote:

China is raising wages to help spur demand and keep up growth. In The USA wages are stagnant or falling for middles class families and business won’t hire because of weak demand with weak economic growth. Maybe if people could afford to buy more stuff then demand will come up here?

中国升工资会有助于刺激需求和保持增长。在美国,中产阶级家庭的工资蹒跚不前,甚至下降,公司因为虚弱经济增长下虚弱的需求而不想雇人。可能如果人们能够买更多的东西,那么需求就会上来?

David Peterson Wrote:

I don’t know if the authors understand economics. Rising wages cut both ways. In a nation of so many poor people, their distributional impact is greater than their affect on growth, but the effect on growth is likely to be negative.

我不知道作者是否理解经济。提高工资有利也有弊。一个如此多穷人的国家,分配的影响比增长的影响更大,但是增长的影响可能是负面的。

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  1. 辛苦虎哥了,文章很好,很有意思的回复,华尔街的读者比印度时报的读者有见识,希望能有更多更好的文章,不一定非得局限在印度视角

    • 有质量归有质量,没人看啊。 上一篇印度饿死人的,这么火,这篇这么冷清,俺表示再不译这类文章勒!!!

      • 别啊,那一篇是楼歪歪出来的火,冷静下来再看就没什么意思了,来虎哥这除了看报道,更重要的是听到不同的声音及想法,拓宽自己的眼界,增长自己的见识,再次感谢博主!

      • 第一次留言,非常感谢 三泰虎、借风者及其他付出翻译劳动的人,谢谢你们将国外的看法引入国内。
        这么大一个国家,在如此打范围内上调工资,同时又恰逢欧美经济不景气,希望国家能够平稳度过这个关口。

      • 当然有人看啊 😛 —-不过只是不愿意随便发言免得说错挨骂而已。

        ——–强烈支持并感谢!!!

  2. 支持一下作者,这种文章以及美国评论者比看印度评论者胡说八道有价值多了,不过缺点是满足不了一些人yy了。因为大家都希望看到敌人的蠢笨,而不希望看到敌人的清醒与明智,哪怕与事实并不一致。
    如果我们想进步,就不要再看印度人的胡说八道了,这仅仅具备娱乐价值而已。

  3. 事实上确是如此,我们企业两年前一个普通工人的工资大概2000元/月,现在少了3000根本留不住人,有点技术又肯下力气的一个月挣个六七千根本不在话下,我们这儿可不是发达地区-成都,算是个二线城市了。

  4. 来支持三泰虎。
    果然还是美国人的干货多一些,
    工资上涨还是制造业,
    对于老板们是一个噩耗,
    出口不景气,人工又多了,
    国家要怎么办?
    还有补贴吗?
    拉动内需?

  5. 评论中的某些作者,对中国的了解使人感到心寒,我们普通的网民对印度或美国的了解能达到这种地步吗?

  6. 希望虎哥能多出一些其他国家的对中国的品论,从印度看中国到世界看中国,我在百度贴吧也看到不少你翻译 🙂 的文章

    • 网站一开始的定位就是“印度看中国”,偶尔会有其他国家的译文。如果有人帮忙翻译的话,内容会更多 😛