三泰虎

南海黄岩岛争端:挑战中国的小国菲律宾

5月25日,针对中国和菲律宾在南海黄岩岛的争议,印度专家Nitin Pai在印度Rediff网发表了一篇题为《挑战中国的小国》的评论,称中国在南海“咄咄逼人”的外交姿态导致东亚许多国家转向美国、印度和其他国家寻求支持。作者还称世界唯一超级大国支持的小国拥有不相称的谈判能力。菲律宾不仅“欺负”中国,而且绑架美国。然而,美国不情愿被一个小国盟友因为一个微小问题而被拖入对抗中国的战争,奥巴马政府因此发出信号称领土争端不在美菲防御公约的范围内。

原文标题: The tiny nation that is taking on China
原文链接:http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-the-tiny-nations-that-are-taking-on-china/20120525.htm




南海黄岩岛争议:中国海监船在黄岩岛海域保护中国渔船

It's those Chinese fishing vessels again. Last month they ventured into a shoal in the South China Sea, presumably hunting for giant clams, when they were apprehended by the Philippines' naval patrols.

If the Philippines claims the Scarborough shoal -- a few hectares worth of low-lying rocks 200 kilometres from its shores -- China claims the entire South China Sea as its own. In what has become a familiar pattern over the last few years, the Chinese fishing vessels triggered off a confrontation that quickly escalated into a maritime and diplomatic standoff. Chinese tourists left the Philippines, and Filipino bananas face an uncertain prospect now in clearing China's food safety tests.

The two countries are now trying to back off at this time, but not before the 'W' word surfaced in the popular discourse.

又是那些中国渔船。上个月,它们冒险进入南海的一个沙洲,大概是去捕巨蛤,受到菲律宾海军巡逻船只的逮捕。

菲律宾声称对离自己海岸线200公里的一块几公顷大的低洼岩石——黄岩岛拥有主权,中国则声称整个南海属于自己。中国渔船引发了对峙,并迅速升级为海上和外交僵局。在过去几年里,这已经成为令人熟悉的模式。中国游客离开菲律宾。菲律宾香蕉能否通过中国食品安全检测的前景不明。

两国现在试图软化,然而“战争”这个词已经成为了公众话语。

War? Over some uninhabited rocks in the middle of nowhere? Between China (GDP $7.3 trillion, defence budget $106.4 billion) and the Philippines (GDP $213 billion, defence budget $2.3 billion)? Who would want it?

Not China. While it certainly wants to keep its territorial claims alive by letting intrepid fishing vessels do to South China Sea islands what dogs do to lamp posts, it knows that an outright military conflict will be counterproductive to its longer-term interests.

Provocative fishing vessels and Beijing's aggressive diplomatic posturing over maritime boundaries have already caused East Asian countries to look at the United States, India and other powers for support. In case China finds itself in a war with the Philippines, opposition to Beijing will consolidate, and the United States will make strategic inroads into the region, making it harder for China to achieve its goal of dominating the Western Pacific.

战争?就为了偏僻地方无人居住的岩石?发生在中国(GDP7.3万亿美元,国防预算1064亿美元)和菲律宾(GDP2130亿美元,国防预算23亿美元)之间?谁会想要战争?

不是中国想要。不过中国肯定想要勇敢的渔船在南海履行“狗蹲守灯杆”的任务。中国知道直接军事冲突对其长期利益适得其反。

渔船的挑衅和北京在海上疆界咄咄逼人的外交姿态,已经导致东亚国家转向美国、印度和其他国家寻求支持。万一中国和菲律宾发生战争,反对北京的联盟就会牢固。美国会战略性进入该地区,导致中国取得统治西太平洋的目标变得更困难。

The US too does not want a war. It has a military alliance with the Philippines, and Manila could call upon US support if it is attacked. Washington is understandably reluctant to let itself be dragged into a war against a great power by a small ally over a tiny issue. The Obama administration has signalled that territorial disputes are outside the scope of the defence pact. Even so, if it is seen as shirking from supporting its ally, the value of Washington's strategic promissory notes in East Asia will sharply depreciate. It cannot, however, support its ally without provoking Beijing. A war would cause the US to choose between losing its reputation and getting into an unwanted confrontation with China.

Most East Asian countries do not want war either. They have spent the last decade attempting to engineer "regional security architectures" -- essentially multilateral forums that discuss security issues -- that hope to solve tricky geopolitical disputes without being bullied and without having to fight.

Yet for all its achievements, the Association of South East Asian Nations has little to show in terms of ability to manage armed conflict, even between its member states. Thailand, for instance, has stonewalled the deployment of Indonesian military observers over its border dispute with Cambodia over the Preah Vihear temple.

美国也不想要战争。它和菲律宾有军事联盟关系。菲律宾如果受到攻击,可以寻求美国支持。可以理解的是,美国不情愿被一个小国盟友因为一个微小问题而被拖入对抗大国的战争。奥巴马政府发出信号,即领土争端不在防御公约的范围内。即使如此,如果美国被认为逃避对盟友的支持,那么华盛顿在东亚的战略承诺价值就会急剧贬值。然而,美国无法做到在不激怒北京的情况下支持盟友。战争将导致美国在失去声誉和卷入不必要的中美对抗之间做出选择。

大多数东亚国家也不想要战争。他们过去十年试图打造“地区安全架构”——特别是讨论安全问题的多边论坛,寄望于不受欺负和不发生战争的情况下解决地缘政治争端。

然而在其取得的所有成就中,东盟在处理武装冲突的能力方面乏善可陈,即使在成员国之间的冲突也是如此。比如,泰国阻止印尼军事观察员介入柬埔寨和泰国有关柏威夏寺的边界争端。

Nor has ASEAN been very vocal in insisting that China comply with the code of conduct in the South China Sea they agreed to in 2002. Its member states are unlikely to want their solidarity to be put to the kind of test that a China-Philippines naval conflict would entail.

What about the Philippines itself? For Manila, maritime boundaries in the South China Sea assume an economic significance that goes beyond nationalistic sentiment over territory. The seabed is supposed to have rich reserves of oil and natural gas, although estimates vary. The technology to exploit natural gas fields in the South China Sea is maturing.

China National Offshore Oil Corporation already has semi-submersible deep sea drilling platforms. Manila has its eyes on healthy revenue streams from energy exports, which can make a substantial difference to its fiscal position and overall economic health.

东盟也没有积极鼓噪要求中国坚持恪守自己在2002年同意的南海行为准则。东盟成员国不大可能为了团结而经受中菲冲突带来的考验。

那么菲律宾自身呢?对于马尼拉来说,南海的海上疆界不仅意味着有关领土的民族主义情绪,还承担着经济意义。虽然估计的看法不一,不过据称这个海床蕴藏着丰富的石油和天然气。在南海开采天然气的技术正成熟。

中国海洋石油总公司已经拥有半潜式深海钻井平台。马尼拉盯上了能源出口带来的可观收入,它可以给财政状况和整体经济健康运作带来实质差异。

This, coupled with the security guarantee the Philippines enjoys by virtue of its alliance with the US, has caused it to stand firm and confront China. So much so that Dai Bingguo, one of Beijing's top foreign policy hands, accused the Philippines, "a smaller country", of bullying China. He has a point. As China's leaders ought to know all too well, small countries that are backed by great powers have disproportionate negotiating power, and they "bully" both their adversaries and their backers. The Philippines might calculate that it has relatively less to lose by letting tensions escalate.

That's the main risk -- when pesky fishing boats, Chinese law enforcement vessels and Philippines naval ships are facing off each other, an accidental trigger can cause an unintentional escalation. Given the turbulence in China's civil-military relations ahead of this autumn's leadership transition, and the numerous Chinese state agencies engaged in the South China Sea, the risk of escalation is higher on its side. The onus, therefore, is on Beijing to keep a lid on the tensions.

再加上菲律宾凭借其和美国的盟友关系带来的安全保证,导致菲律宾坚定对抗中国,以致于北京高级外交官员指责菲律宾是欺负中国的“小国”。他说对了。中国领导人应该很了解,超级大国支持的小国拥有不相称的谈判能力。这些小国不仅“欺负”敌人,还绑架支持者。菲律宾可能估算形势升级对自己的损失相对更少。

那就是主要风险——当麻烦的渔船、中国执法船和菲律宾军舰彼此对峙,突发事故可能导致形势意外升级。鉴于中国领导层秋季更替前民众和军队的动荡关系,以及中国许多国家机构涉足南海,中国方面形势升级的风险更高。所以,限制紧张关系是北京的责任。

以下是印度网民的评论:



India needs to keep expanding its diplomatic efforts in region
by Grizzly (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 04:27 PM | Hide replies

India should keep engaged with the countries in our region to keep a healthy balance of power.

Times like these give us a precious opportunity

为了保持健康的权利平衡,印度应该和我们地区的国家保持接洽。

这样的时机给了我们宝贵的机会。

Re: India needs to keep expanding its diplomatic efforts in regio
by Pat Thakur (View MyPage) on May 26, 2012 07:57 AM
India is a Born Loser. It's Gone.....


印度是天生的失败者。它完了...



india should supply brahmos to taiwan & philippines
by ravi prasad (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 02:01 PM | Hide replies

India should supply 1000 brahmos to each taiwan and philippines and it has to supply airlaunched version to both the countries after testing

印度应该向台湾和菲律宾各自提供1000枚布拉莫斯导弹。在测试后,印度必须为两个国家(地区)提供这种导弹的空射版本。

Re: india should supply brahmos to taiwan & philippines
by Janarddan (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 02:56 PM
China has larger and more tested weaponry.


They will supply it to Pakistan, Myanmar, SriLanka and Bangladesh.


中国有更大更多测试过的武器。


他们会向巴基斯坦、缅甸、斯里兰卡和孟加拉国提供武器。


Re: Re: india should supply brahmos to taiwan & philippines
by Ram Singh (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 03:31 PM
TumhariPehleHiFatGayi.


We are not afraid of those Countries and our army is good enough to fk them.


我们不害怕那些国家。我们的军队足以“干掉”它们。


Re: Re: Re: india should supply brahmos to taiwan & philippin
by Venugopalan (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 04:59 PM
there is no doubt that we got one of best army in the world..but do we have enough brahmos for ourselves..? the sea launched version will take a longer time, for inducting in navy..we ourselves are facing the shortage... supplying to foreign countries is a far cry . as for China there are thousands of warheads ready to be exported..


毫无疑问,我们拥有世界最棒之一的军队...不过我们自己是否有足够的布拉莫斯导弹?海上发射的版本还要更长的时间才能服役海军。我们自己都面临短缺....要向外国供应还差得老远。就中国而言,它已经有数千枚待出口的弹头...



freedom
by Sachin Kshirsagar (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 01:29 PM | Hide replies

freedom of yunnan, tibet and xinjinag is must.

let help Philippines to make nuke as chinese supported pak

必须让云南、xz和xj自游

中国人支持巴基斯坦,所以让我们帮助菲律宾制造核武器吧

Re: freedom
by Venugopalan (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 05:01 PM
Philippines is like a colony of the US..they do not need n weapon


菲律宾就像是美国的殖民地...他们不需要核武器



.
by Communal Award (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 01:21 PM

India should learn from China.
China rejected US hegemony and is paying in yuan to Iran to import $20-30 billion worth crude oil every year.

印度应该学习中国。

中国拒绝美国霸权。每年用人民币从伊朗进口价值200亿美元至300亿美元的原油。

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

China a very avaricious nation!
by Venkatesa Prabhu (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 11:38 AM

China is a very avaricious nation, with occupationist intentions and aggressive tendencies. Unless nations like Philippines, Indonesia, South Korea stand firm, the chinese dragon will swallow everything in its way. And get more aggressive with other nations in the South East Asia. Only nations like USA can slow down the nefarious ambitions of the dragon.

中国是贪得无厌的国家,怀有军事占领的意图和攻击性倾向。除非菲律宾、印尼和韩国等国家站稳立场,否则中国龙将以自己的方式吞下一切。中国在南海对其他国家会更加咄咄逼人。只有美国那样的国家才能延缓中国龙的邪恶野心。

china
by raman govindan (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 11:16 AM

Germany, Japan and Italy wanted market and allies during the pre WWII, who will do their bidding. they waged the war to achieve the end and failed.

fortunate for USA and It's west European allies, several countries even if though they had sufferred under the colonolialism of UK, France, Spain, Portugal, they provided moral and logistic support to them . they thought of the the better of the evil.

China follows the lead given by the axis powers. it expects that being the biggest one by virtue of it's mono cultural/ethnicity, and the number one in the population in the world, it can tide over the difficultiies experienced by the axis powers.

history repeats and and sometimes provides surprises.

德国、日本和意大利二战前想要获得市场。为了取得目标,他们发动了战争。结果失败了。

美国和其西方盟友是幸运的。虽然有些国家遭受过英国、法国、西班牙和葡萄牙的殖民,他们还是提供了道德和后勤上的支持。

中国遵循轴心国的道路,寄望于凭借单一文化和种族、世界最多的人口、以及能够克服轴心国经历的困难而成为最大的国家。

历史在重演,有时是让人吃惊的。

SOCS
by Shake Hasina (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 11:15 AM | Hide replies

Hello World!

Instead of SCS lets all start calling it
South Of China Sea (SOCS)
and we'll soon see a sea-change in the
attitude of the wily red dragon-fox.

你好,世界!

与其叫南中国海(SCS),还是让我们开始叫中国海的南部(SOCS)

我们很快将看到诡计多端的中国龙态度的重大变化。

Re: SOCS
by Gajanan (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 01:26 PM
100% agreed


100%同意



..
by om shanti (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 10:35 AM | Hide replies

Hangyuan_Island belongs to China.It is nothing new.

Philipinos_are lazy people and one fine morning they wake up and chase chinese_fisherman from fishing near the island.At whose_behest ? They have no_guts.They are banking on America.It may be a proxy war !

黄岩岛属于中国。这不是什么新鲜事。

菲律宾人是懒人。一个晴朗的早上,他们醒来,然后追逐在该岛附近捕鱼的中国渔民。是遵照谁的指示?他们没有勇气。他们倚靠美国。可能是代理战争!

Re: ..
by ravinder khatana (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 02:37 PM
Om Shanti Om, did you got your chinese yellow card or still in process?


Om Shanti,你获得了中国绿卡了吗,还是在申请中?


Re: ..
by desi twist (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 12:12 PM
Om shanti, you need to get your facts right. Filpinos are actually quite hard working. They form a significant chunk of working class in places like Emirates and in fact in US too. They are good in spoken English and lot of call centres operate off Philipines. They are a strong upcoming nation.


I dont think they are chasing chinese fisherman starting one fine morning. It is actually China which off late has become a little aggressive and assertive in South Chna Sea...


Om shanti,你要搞清楚事实。菲律宾人实际上非常勤劳。他们在阿联酋等地方形成了很大的工人群体,事实上在美国也是。他们擅长英语口语,许多呼叫中心在菲律宾离岸运作。他们是即将崛起的强国。


我认为他们不是在一个晴朗的早上开始追逐中国渔民。实际上,正是中国最近在南海变得有点咄咄逼人和独断。



Support Ready
by Chanakya (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 09:48 AM

Tibet is ready to support against China's bossy nature.

xz准备反抗中国专横跋扈的本性。

THE WORLD OVER
by Kolappa Pillai (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 09:37 AM

China is dominating that they become super power while United States thinks that they can fight better. The small nation Philipines is having its to face a mighty enemy.

中国专横的认为自己可以成为超级大国。美国认为自己可以更好地作战。小国菲律宾不得不面对强大的敌人。

China is a bully
by Ramesh Dodani (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 09:23 AM | Hide replies

Just for a small territory China is loosing the goodwill of philipinos even other Asean countries will draw closer to USA. Im sure more philipinos will want not to buy chinese goods

This issue would not have come up had Philipines let USA use its base & not asked them to close down long back

即使是会让其他东盟国家和美国走得更近,中国还是仅仅为了一小块领土而失去了菲律宾人的善意。我敢肯定更多的菲律宾人会不买中国货。

要是菲律宾人很早以前不要求美国关闭这些基地,那么这个问题就不会出现。

Re: China is a bully
by Debasish Sarkar (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 09:43 AM
Well said. Commie Chinese are over doing and unjustifiably which is unacceptable to us. Better unite all South and South-East Asian Countries and kick out this Nemesis out of south China Seas.


说得好。中国人做事过分和不讲道理,我们无法接受。最好联合所有南亚国家和东南亚国家,把这个“复仇者”踢出南海。


Re: Re: China is a bully
by Chanakya (View MyPage) on May 25, 2012 09:51 AM
Good!


不错


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