Taiwan military: China able to invade by 2020
Seems Taiwan is on it's own.
Vinny 121 ND：
Is it really in China's best interest to invade a small country? 1600 ballistic missiles is more than enough to kill everyone on that island.
T-5 Killer回复Vinny 121 ND：
Yes to them Taiwan is not a independent country but a wayward state.
Rssmps回复Vinny 121 ND：
This is as much of for internal consumption as for the world. As you stated, they have enough power to "invade" now....no need to wait for 2020.
C.puffs回复Vinny 121 ND：
If they were nuclear maybe.
Kalerab回复Vinny 121 ND：
Why would they want to kill everyone on that island instead of subjugating them? Best scenario for China would be quick and overwhelming campaign that would leave economical and residential zones largely undamaged so the economy of Taiwan could quickly recover.
Do they have more power than the Allies in WWII? The Taiwanese have had 60 years to make their beaches make the Normandy landings look like a cakewalk.
China loosing African,more africa countries normalising with Taipei,last Burkina Faso,yes,yep,africans disgusted and revolted by chinese enterprises brutality on local workers,yes,example here,Mauritania,where chinese societies are definitely unable to find mauritanians workers,who systematically refuse to work with chinese brutes,who have regular probs with local police,for involvment on drug trafic and *** trade,same in region,
beach invasion would be so far down the list of things to do if they were to really invade. C'mon, you got to give PLA/N/AF more credit than that.
on top of that, TW is an island, there's PLENTY of locations to land without any fortifications.
What a load of fertilizer...
... Taiwanese companies and individuals can invest in mainland for what, decade now ?
Mutual trade and flow of people is sufficient that in 2020, Taiwan will probably buy half of Chinese coast and the same time will be 3/4 bought by Mainland investors...
In China's interest is to re-integrate Taiwan WITHOUT violence and economic destruction, and purpose of armed threats - is simply to keep it present course and at steady pace to such inevitable conclusion.
And I hardly can imagine modern China going for war without very pragmatic reason with it's risks to economy and focusing on so inconsequential "threat" like Taiwan, when they have India on one side, Afghanistan behind the corner, North Korea in decline and less and less stable and Dok-do contest with Japan, ROK...
It would be something like US using Europe based forces against Argentina during Falkland War....
Time to turn the thread fun.
Invasion Scenario for 2020:
1) China's two carrier groups conduct "exercise" in the SCS. Acting as screening against USN intervention.
2) First wave of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles targeting air defense and communication nodes.
3) At the same time, infiltrated SF are lasing for J-20s against targets in urban and built up areas to minimise collateral damage.
This ends the surprise part of the invasion
4) Land based Flankers are now contesting the air space above Taiwan.
5) Once partial air dominance is achieved. The heavy bombers moves in to target the remaining air assets in their hardened shelters.
Around now the air space above should be controlled by the Chicoms.
6) Airbourne troops are dropped onto key ports and ahead of of the landing points.
7) Amphib and marines are dropped off on target beaches and ports to be linked up with the airbourne troops.
8) Quick move against major political centers and the Capital.
9) Requisitioned civilian fleet will now continuously pump reinforcements and heavy equipments onto the island.
Have at it!
Ever been to Taiwan? Ever seen the beach fortifications that are now in place? Finally, one just can't land at any old beach, there are many requirements for a successful beach landing.
And no I won't give the Chinese more credit than that. Amphibious operations are fraught with risk which is why they are so rare and require such specialized equipment and troops.
Also, who is to say Taiwan isn't holding onto a nuclear weapon or three from it's days of nuclear cooperation between Taiwan, Israel, and South Africa - Did Taiwan really do all that work and end up the only one out of the three without a weapon?
I'll add this. Supposedly one of the reasons why the US invaded Okinawa and not Taiwan during WW2 was that Taiwan's coasts were considered too difficult for amphibious operations. Even though you now have airborne options, I doubt they'd do too well on their own - they'd need heavy unit backup and quick.
They did not have the resources or the logic to take both Taiwan and the Philippines
and since MacArthur wanted the Philippines that was that , It was either one or the one
Also The ground force required to take Taiwan Would not be ready by March 1945.
Well if China wants to invade Taiwan i do hope it is prepared for a hefty cost. Even if the ROC's allies do not spring to its aid, on a qualitative level i would place the ROC ahead of China in terms of equipment and most likely training to boot (generally speaking of course, even more so considering what China could feasibly ever invade with). That said i would be concerned about their morale in all this as for all their equipment and training, it ain't going to be much use if their troops lose their nerve when it comes to it. In that particular sense i would imagine the PLA in all its forms is more 'professional'.
The German's maintained a U-boat base on Taiwan from as early as 1940. After their moon base was evacuated they settled there. The third Reich never recovered from the niu rou mian, a delicacy in Taiwan. The Chinese are well aware of this and will never attack the island nation by sea invasion. They have alternative plans to attack at night using dirigibles with H.A.L.O. commandos. This was leaked by Wiki Leaks along with the recipe for the niu rou mian.
Amazing how this fact wasn't brought up earlier in this thread?
I want proof of this heresy.
chicoms might have a problem with this seeing as it uses real beef
You forgot the massive V3 installations that were left over from the Reich's occupation
One day Taiwan will peacefully submit itself to China. They will be happy to do so when that time comes.
Fixed for you...
In 50 years China will be the most powerful country in the world militarily and economically
And people thought the Berlin Wall would never fall. Regimes that lack legitimacy tend not to last too long and the PRC's Communist government is far from Communist and even farther away from the working classes.
The clock is ticking as far as I'm concerned.
This is Asia. The government will be fine as long as they can provide bread and circus to the masses. Just look at Singapore, one of the most restrictive place among the 1st world but the citizens don't mind.
How about you? google earth doesn't count
Why do you think invasion will be Normandy style? that's so 1940s....
they can do more cost effective things.
Yep, there's going to be major social discontent and allot of angry Chinese over the coming decades. The CPC is remarkably skilful in controlling people on a mass scale, but eventually even their limits will be reached.
LEt's just hope that the backlash won't be too severe on us. .
China has a population of 1.4 billion ppl, i think they don't need more issue with Taiwan. It will cost the to much $$$.
2020 will come and go then a new report will come and say china will invade in 2030. to think about it i have seen 3 reports like this one for 2015, one for 2010 and one for 2025.
lol, china to smart to invade Taiwan.
in order to invade taiwan,without hoping for the 2nd arty to crap taiwan from orbit, the PLA need to have an overwhelming expeditionary forces. and to start, do they have anything that enable them do launch massive amphibious assault, let say, like normandy?
do they have anything like AAV? do they have sufficient landing craft? last i check just received their first LCAC months ago. and how many LPDs that they have? how about air cavalry? can they even match US air cavalry capability in vietnam wars? (and that was like 40 years ago). having expeditionary capability is beyond the bells and whistles they've been buying all these years. having digital camo, hi-speed rifles and molle-styled vests are all fly but that doesn't mean they can perform effectively
I think this is the gist of why 2020 is still IMHO a very optimistic scenario. Sure, 2nd Arty and the PLAAF have done a lot of work towards being able to give Taiwan a very solid pasting, but that in itself will not be adequate to win if the will to contest an invasion remains. For a conquest to work, the PLA has got to land and sustain an invasion force that can meet the Taiwanese Army on its home turf and overcome it.
PLA SF and Airborne forces could cause a lot of damage, but unless they can get a significant force of modern armor onto Taiwan(and there isn't any sign that capability will arrive in the next 5-6 years), those old M60A3s and M109 self propelled howitzers the Taiwanese have will win the day. China can today and will be even more capable in 2020 of bombing the crap out of Taiwan, it probably wouldn't be too hard for them to render the ROCAF and ROCN combat ineffective in short order, but thats not the same thing as conducting a successful invasion. They have to land a force that can meet and beat a 3 Corps Army with armor and arty on its home turf. Its a tall order. As of right now, the tea leaves don't appear to signal that China is building the force to do that anytime soon.
To me Taiwanese people are Chinese. Tawian's 240K soldiers are not stopping the PLA forces.. Just a matter of when.
On all three parts of this...don't be so sure
How long would Taiwan hold if under sea and air blockade, thats the good question