从这里了解印度人对中国的看法

标准普尔下调印度主权信用评级前景至负面

2012-04-28 20:14 20个评论 字号:

国际评级机构标准普尔S&P)25日将印度主权信用评级前景从稳定下调至负面。前景被下调至负面将使印度公司的外部商业借贷变得更昂贵。标准普尔信用分析师小川隆平(Takahira Ogawa)在一份声明中称,如果外部环境持续恶化、发展前景暗淡或者财政改革在疲软的政治环境中缓慢推进,那么至少有三分之一的可能性下调印度的主权信用评级至不适于投资。

原文标题:S&P cuts India’s outlook from stable to negative
原文链接:http://www.rediff.com/money/slide-show/slide-show-1-s-and-poors-cuts-indias-rating-from-stable-to-negative/20120425.htm

国际评级机构标准普尔(S&P)将印度主权信用评级前景从稳定下调至负面

标准普尔(三泰虎配图)

Global agency Standard and Poor’s on Wednesday lowered India’s rating outlook to negative and warned of a downgrade in two years if there is no improvement in the fiscal situation and the political climate continues to worsen.

The lowering of outlook from stable (BBB+) to negative (BBB-) is expected to make external commercial borrowings expensive for Indian Inc.

It may also have implications for the capital market.

“The outlook revision reflects our view of at least a one-in-three likelihood of a downgrade if the external position continues to deteriorate, growth prospects diminish or progress on fiscal reforms remains slow in a weakened political setting” said S & P’s credit analyst Takahira Ogawa in a statement.

Terming S&Poor’s decision to lower India’s credit rating outlook to negative as a ‘timely warning’, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, however, said there is no need to panic as the government is committed to economic reforms.

“I am concerned but I don’t feel panicky because I am confident that our economy will grow at 7 per cent, around 7 per cent if not plus.

“We will be able to control fiscal deficit and it will be around 5.1 per cent”, he told reporters.

全球信用评级机构标准普尔星期三将印度的评级展望下调至负面,并警告如果财政状况没有改善和政治氛围持续恶化,那么两年内会被降级。

前景展望从稳定(BBB+)降为负面(BBB-)将使印度公司的外部商业借贷变得更昂贵。

它对资本市场也可能具有暗示含意。

标准普尔信用分析师小川隆平(Takahira Ogawa)在一份声明中称:“修正主权信用评级前景反映了我们这样的观点,即如果外部环境持续恶化、发展前景暗淡或者财政改革在疲软的政治环境中缓慢推进,那么至少有三分之一的可能性下调印度的主权信用评级(至不适于投资)。”

然而,财政部长普拉纳布?慕克吉将标准普尔下调印度信用评级展望至负面称作“及时的警告”。他称政府正致力于经济改革,没有必要恐慌。

“我在关注,但并不感到恐慌。因为我相信我们经济能增长7%。如果没有更快发展,那么就是大约7%。“

BBB- is the lowest investment grade rating.

Commenting on the rating action, Jagannadham Thunuguntla, strategist and head of research at SMC Global Securities, said, “Indian (new) sovereign rating is just one step away from junk bond status. . . Somehow I feel the dream of India growth story is coming to an end”.

The negative outlook, the rating agency further said, signals likelihood of the downgrade of India’s sovereign within the next 24 months.

The finance minister said that government will take note of the S&P’s decision to lower India’s rating outlook to BBB- (the lowest investment grade rating) and work for achieving higher economic growth.

“So economic reforms will be on track. The reform process and necessary administrative decisions required to ensure that fiscal deficit is retained at projected level (will be taken).

“We should continue to work for higher GDP. . . We will take note. It is a timely warning”, the minister said.

BBB-是最低投资评级。

SMC全球证券公司首席策划师对该评级行动发表评论。他称”印度主权评级离垃圾债券水平只有一步之遥…不知何故,我认为印度的发展梦想行将结束“。

这家评级机构称,负面展望标志着印度主权评级在未来24个月被降级的可能性。

财政部长称,政府将留心标准普尔下调印度信用评级展望至BBB-的决定,并将努力取得更快的经济发展。

所以经济改革将会步入轨道。改革进程和必要的行政决定必须确保财政赤字被控制在预计水平。

这位部长称:“我们将继续追求更高的GDP…我们将留意这个及时的警告。”

According to S&P’s, a downgrade is likely if the country’s economic growth prospects is dim, its external position deteriorates, its political climate worsens, or fiscal reforms slow.

The lowering of rating outlook comes despite Finance Ministry pitching for an upgrade at the recent round of meetings between the officials and representatives of the S&P.

S&P said India’s real gross domestic product per capita growth will likely remain moderately strong at 5.3 per cent in 2012-13, compared with about 6 per cent on average over the prior five years.

“India’s favourable demography and the increasing middle-class population will undergird its medium-term growth prospects, which in turn will support the sovereign ratings,” Ogawa said.

标准普尔称,如果一个国家的经济发展前景黯淡、外部环境恶化、政治氛围恶化、或者财政改革缓慢,那么可能被降级。

尽管财政部长在印度官员和标准普尔代表之间的最近一轮会谈中争取信用上调,展望被下调还是到来。

标准普尔称,相比过去5年里大约6%的发展速度,印度真实人均国内生产总值在2012-2013年度可能以5.3%的速度平和发展。

小川隆平称:”印度有利的人口结构和不断增长的中产阶级人口将加强自身的中期发展前景,转而将支撑主权信用评级。“

India’s favourable long-term growth prospects and high level of foreign exchange reserves support the ratings, the agency said.

On the other hand, India’s large fiscal deficits and debt, as well as its lower middle-income economy, constrain the ratings, it added.

“High fiscal deficits and a heavy debt burden remain the most significant constraints on the sovereign ratings on India. We expect only modest progress in fiscal and public sector reforms, given the political cycle — with the next elections to be held by May 2014–and the current political gridlock,” S&P said.

Such reforms include reducing fuel and fertiliser subsidies, introducing goods and services tax, and easing of restrictions on foreign ownership of various sectors such as banking, insurance, and retail sectors, it said.

这家机构称,印度有利的长期发展前景和高水平的外汇储备支撑信用评级。另一方面,印度巨额财政赤字和债务,以及中低收入的经济,限制了信用评级。

标准普尔称:”高额财政赤字和沉重的债务负担仍然是印度主权评级最明显的限制。考虑到政治周期——即下一次选举将在2014年5月举行,以及当前的政治僵局,我们期望财政和公共部门改革能够适度推进。“

标准普尔称,这些改革包括减少燃料和化肥补贴、引入货物和服务税、降低不同领域的外资拥有权限制,比如银行业、保险业和零售业等。

On the other hand, S&P said the ratings ‘could stabilise again if the government implements initiatives to reduce structural fiscal deficits and to improve its investment climate’.

Fiscal measures could include an increase in domestic prices and a more efficient use of fuel and fertiliser subsidies, or an early implementation of the GST.

Reacting to the rating action, a senior Finance Ministry official said India’s growth rate is intact and robust and it is not going to have any major impact on the country.

“We are not overtly concerned about revision. Other nations make India look good,” the official added.

另一方面,标准普尔称如果政府推行减少结构性财政赤字的措施和改善投资环境,那么评级展望可能又变成”稳定“。

财政措施可能包括提高国内价格,更有效的利用燃料和化肥补贴,或者早落实消费税。

财政部一名高级官员对评级被下调做出反应,他称印度发展速度是完好和稳健的,对国家不会有任何重大影响。

这名官员补充说:”我们并不过度关注标普的修正。其他国家让印度看起来不错。“

以下是印度网民的评论:

S & P is correct
by Sandy W (View MyPage) on Apr 26, 2012 07:19 PM

S & P is absolutely correct.
India actual growth rate decline from 9% to 5.5%.
India government & real estate developers are in day dream state.

标准普尔绝对是正确的。

印度实际发展速度从9%下滑至5.5%。

印度政府和房地产开发商正在做白日梦。

S&P credit rating a joke.
by Trikunsh Sharma (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 07:59 PM

Dear Fellow Indians,

I think we should pay no heed to the credit ratings by S&P. These are all puppets of U.S and Western, so called developed contries. If we were to fall in line with what U.S and other developed nations want of us these credit ratings would miraculously improve all of a sudden with new statistics thrown in. We would become part of another stone or Bric nations with advisery to the world to invest.

Another reason for the credit rating is to curb money flow to India. Money has been steadily flowing into India due to the progress made over the years. They were all happy when times were good. However they now want to stop money flow to India as their own house is struggling and hence the credit rating. I think if we look at America and their debt everyone knows it is junk but look at the credit rating of America. 2G Scam,CWG Scam, Adarsh Scam etc are nothing compared to this scam by the developed nations. It would be best if our politicians wise up and do such scams that allows every Indian to lead a better life. What say ya?

亲爱的印度同胞:

我认为我们应该无视标准普尔的信用评级修正。它们都是美国和西方等所谓发达国家的傀儡。如果我们同意美国和其他发达国家对我们的要求,那么新的统计数字将会被引入,信用评级将会奇迹般地突然提高。我们可能成为另一个不利于世界投资的金砖国家。

信用评级前景被下调的另一个原因是为了遏制进入印度的资金流。由于过去几年的进步,资金稳步流入印度。日子好过的时候,他们都很开心。然而,他们现在自身苦苦挣扎,所以想要停止资金流入印度,因此信用评级前景被下调。我认为,如果看看美国和美国债务,大家都知道是垃圾水平,但是看看美国的主权信用评级。相比发达国家的丑闻,2G丑闻、英联邦丑闻等根本不算什么。如果我们的政府不犯傻,做那些让每个印度人过上更好生活的此类”丑闻“,那么再好不过了。还有什么要说呢?

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

S&P’s credibility
by SUNIL SHETH (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 07:49 PM

S&P has done more damage to the corporate world worldwide than performing its own duty honestly. In US itself, the situation just went opposite than what it predicted. And by the way why should we rely on S&P for our own strength than depending on any outsider’s opinion when our counttry has hundreds of renowned economists & experts in the area??

There is something more than meets the eye !! Possibilities cannot be ignored that few large FIIs and punters work hand in glove to bring the market to a fictitious level and then corner the scrips OR play sell and cover game by spreading such rating news. No doubt India cannot remain aloof from world economy, BUT if India is rated BBB- than what could be the rating for Spain and other EU nations, UK & US? Present scenarion predicts very gloom picture for all of these nations.

相比自身职责表现,标准普尔对全世界企业造成的损害更大。在美国,形势则是正好和标普预测的相反。顺便说下,我们国家在这个领域有数百名著名的经济学家和专家,为什么我们要依赖标准普尔这样的外部观点。

有一些东西是你看不到的!!不能忽视这样一种可能,即少数大型境外机构投资者和国内掌权者密切合作,使市场处于虚拟水平,然后通过散布此类评级新闻玩兜售游戏。难怪印度无法避开世界经济。如果印度被评为BBB-,那么西班牙和其他欧盟国家、英国和美国的评级是什么?这些国家的现况预示着非常暗淡的前景。

Mission not yet achieved
by My Opinion (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 07:33 PM

Con-grass is working hard towards making ZZZ (worst than lowest) and not BBB(lowest).

任务还没有完成。国大党努力向(比最低级别还低的)ZZZ评级发展,而不是最低的BBB级别。

DDD-
by NIRMAL BALIA (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 07:11 PM | Hide replies

this is what BHARAT DESERVES because of CONGRESS POLICIES

由于国大党的政策,这是印度应得的。

Re: DDD-
by Varadarajan Ravindran (View MyPage) on Apr 26, 2012 04:10 AM
You do not seem to know the fundamentals of economics. US companies do not have any money and are mostly bankrupt. Indian companies know the spelling of the word “growth”.

你似乎不懂基础经济学。美国公司没有钱,大部分破产了。印度公司知道“发展”这个词是如何拼写的。

No need to worry about S&P
by Amithkumar (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 04:34 PM

No need to worry about this ratings. These S&P have not succeed in giving ratings till now. People may know what rating they given to USA.

没必要担心这个评级。标准普尔到现在还没有做出过成功的评级。人们可能知道它给美国什么评级。

Poor investors
by kapil (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 03:44 PM | Hide replies

this upa gov. cheated crores of people in the name of IPO, those who invested now in jail and some suicides. Ministers enjoying without any worry.

国民进步联盟政府以IPO的名义欺骗无数人。那些投资的人如今蹲在监狱,有些还自杀了。部长们无忧无虑的享受。

dear S and P
by kapil (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 03:42 PM

you have done it rightly. In fact it should be – 000 , this country running by some old men who cannot walk, run and talk. G0d bless you all S and P team.

亲爱的标普,你做得正确。事实上,应该是-OOO级。这个国家由一些无法行走交谈的老男人管理。上帝保佑标普团队。

Sub prime loans
by RAVIKUMAR VADIVELU (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 03:24 PM | Hide replies

This same S&P rated US sub prime loans at AAA.
Need not bother these guys.

同样的标普将美国次级贷款评为AAA级。没必要在意这些家伙。

All these ratings affect only
by Incredible India (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 03:10 PM | Hide replies

the riches of the country;
The poor who wants to get daily bread for evening has less to do with this;
Same story is also about USA; these things are only for Wall-street and others are least affected; And that is why we see that more uprising revolution of poor or middle class in USA;

所有这些评级只影响国家的富人。那些每天为生计发愁的人跟这个关系不大。美国的情况也一样。这些评级只是为华尔街准备的,其他人较少受影响。那就是我们在美国看到更多穷人或者中产阶级起义革命的原因。

Re: All these ratings affect only
by sunil (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 03:52 PM
poor rating means less investment.. less projects… less business .. and less jobs… less employment.. less oppertunity for poor… less wages… HOW COME POOR ARE NOT AFFECTED???

差评意味着更少的投资…更少的项目…更少生意…更少工作…更少就业…穷人机会更少…工资更少…穷人怎么会不受影响呢?

Rating
by Om Garg (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 02:28 PM | Hide replies

Unless and untill Sonia is not removed from her stellar position Indias rating can not improve She does not know any thing about the country finance or culture yet all decisions are taken by her in sole consultation with Rahul and Priyanka Even people like MMS and Pranab are clue less and not consulted on important matters

除非索尼娅被解除要职,否则印度的评级无法提高。她一点都不了解国家金融或者文化,可是所有决定都是在仅咨询过拉胡尔和普莉雅卡后就做出。连辛格总理和普拉纳布都毫无线索,在重要事务中也没有被咨询过。

Economiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!
by Altu Faltu (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 02:11 PM | Hide replies

It is all bullshit. We are great ! We are great ! AND We are great —– EVEN OBAMA SAYS SO.

都是胡说八道。我们是伟大的!我们是伟大的!….连奥巴马也是这样说

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Re: Economiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!
by living dead (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 02:19 PM
bull *** or not, because of this rating our external borrowings are going to become costlier. It will impact on our growth, pulling it down even more !!

不管是否是胡说八道,但是我们的外部借贷将因此代价更高。它将影响我们的发展,甚至拉低发展速度。

Re: Economiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!
by Devdutt Sen (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 02:27 PM
Obama and Osama are the same for India, don’t be elated

奥巴马和奥萨马(本拉登)对于印度是一样的。别得意洋洋。

FACT OF THE DAY
by Chalta Hai (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:49 PM | Hide replies

forget India, even
PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY
IS GROWING FASTER
THAN AMERICA’S

别说印度,连巴基斯坦经济都比美国经济发展更快。

Re: FACT OF THE DAY
by Dhiman Mohajan (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 02:28 PM
Ya their suicide bomber making factories are working day and night .

是的,他们生产自杀性诈弹的工厂没日没夜地工作

good rating
by surya menon (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:49 PM | Hide replies

India deserves it top be best 3rd grade country. It like regression back to the 3rd world era

印度应该是最好的三流国家。就像回归到第三世界时代

Re: good rating
by Maihoon Don (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:50 PM
Why are you staying in India then?

那么你为什么要呆在印度?

Re: Re: good rating
by Jaideep Chanda (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:53 PM
India is a third world country…face it…the current situation of things have just upped the tempo..

印度是第三世界国家…面对现实..当前情况只是加快了这个速度…

Re: Re: Re: good rating
by Maihoon Don (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 02:01 PM
Stop using India’s benefits if you think so. Stop going to malls, stop using telecom services, stop using any services that India has progressed in last several years.

如果你这样认为,那么停止使用印度带来的实惠。停止去购物中心,停止使用电信服务、停止使用印度过去几年取得进步的任何服务。

jai ho
by Santhosh Pallavour (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:49 PM | Hide replies

jai sonia madam & manmohan singh

索尼娅女士和辛格胜喽

Re: jai ho
by Indian (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:54 PM
No use blaming MMS as he does not have any power

辛格总理没有任何权利,责备他是没有用的

Congress will destroy india
by Rajan S (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:39 PM | Hide replies

As if nothing is enough, they are all set to de-control oil prices as well. Already a 100 rs note means nothing when we go to any shop these days, thanks to the manmohans and alhuwalias. What more they have in store to test the patience of indian people????

国大党将摧毁印度。似乎还不够,他们也打算解除石油价格控制。现在去任何商店,100卢比已经买不到什么东西了。多亏了辛格和阿鲁瓦利亚。他们还将准备用什么来测试印度人民的耐心?

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com

Re: Congress will destroy india
by ymum (View MyPage) on Apr 25, 2012 01:49 PM
problem is within indian politics.all parties are friends.They do for themself not for us.petrol prices are high only in india.In us 45 rupees, in pakistan 45 rupess approx, in srilanka same rate approx,they are getting commision so they dont negotiate.So finally we are getting charged.SO all products are getting costly because of this.scams are giving fuel.only polition are getting rich.ROBERT VADARA has earned within 10 years as much as ambanies which they earned in last 50 years

问题出在印度政治。所有政党彼此是朋友。他们为自己服务,而不是为我们。石油价格只有在印度才是高的。美国的石油价格是45卢比(三泰虎博客注:当前汇率是1人民币兑换8.3131印度卢比),巴基斯坦大约45卢比,斯里兰卡的价格大体相同。他们获取佣金,所以并不就价格展开协商,所以我们最终买单,所有产品因此变得更贵。丑闻火上浇油。只有政客变得富裕。罗伯特·瓦德拉10年里赚的钱和阿巴尼过去50年赚的钱一样多。

(三泰虎注:罗伯特·瓦德拉是索尼娅·甘地的女婿)

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  1. 本文跟中国关系不大。

    主要是跟大家分享印度网民对“标准普尔下调印度主权信用评级前景至负面”的看法

    评论不多,凑活着看

    另:评论楼层已经更改,评论按顺序先后显示,

    三泰虎本人占了沙发…

    • 没关系,我们希望得到的是了解,也会到印度和非洲贴吧之类的地方,话题并非总是与中@国有关,但是这并不影响关注(至少不影响我的关注),很多人不能真正了解这个国家(和一些非洲国家)的想法,事实上有时候我们无法了解自己的同胞的想法
      我们希望了解,但很多时候我们缺乏机会和时间,有机会我也会尝试去看看
      感谢您不断的努力,向你致以诚挚的感谢

  2. 虽然文章和评论没提到中国,但是这个事件本身和中国还是密切相关的。
    如果金砖国家的薄弱环节,比如印度,巴西,以及其他发展中国家的经济被欧美的金融战争搞垮的话,中国的危机就会来了。所以印度虽然整天叫着与中国为敌,但是真要是被搞垮了,大家别急着叫好哦,实质上对我们的压力会更大。

  3. 在增长下降到6.1的情况下,总统信心满满的说增长能到9!

    财长这个7不是赤裸裸的打总统的脸嘛?

  4. 这些评价真是说对了,发展就算是5.5,那欧洲那些发展为0甚至是负数的评价都比他高,这个标普实在不能当回事。