Will Vietnam surpass China and become the next factory in the world?




Rui Zhang

Historian living in Tokyo Author has 769 answers and 6.1M answer viewsJun 4

Vietnam will replace China as a world factory, Vietnam will become high -income developed countries, and Vietnam will surpass China. Every time, there will always be some public oion on the Internet that will always make up the public oion that Vietnam is more than China. These theories always like to compare Vietnam to a humble student in the class. Last year, Vietnam was difficult to resist the impact of Delta and chose to coest with the vir s. Sure enough, the closest to the recent Internet has begun to make up.

On my country's network, how the Vietnam economy has always been a hot topic. What people do most often are discussing whether the Vietnamese economy will catch up with China, and even Vietnam will become a new world factory to replace China.



The reason why Vietnam is so attractive is that Vietnam has developed rapidly in recent years and has maintained a stable growth rate. Although it has been hit by the new crown epidemic in recent years, it has recovered quickly. The GDP in the first quarter of this year has increased by 5.03 year -on -year %, It is expected that the economic growth rate will reach 6.5%this year.

Vietnam has a population of nearly 100 million, the population structure is very young, with a long coastline of thousands of kilometers, a stable domestic order, and a very proper internal and external policy. And external environment. So we see that more and more multinational companies have moved factories to Vietnam, using Vietnam's cher labor and convenient sea and land transportation, coupled with excellent tax policies to play the important world in the global industrial chain Factory role. There is no doubt that today's Vietnam is a superior student in the world's economies. It is manifested in Southeast Asia, and it is very outstanding in the world.



Having said that, many people may say that Vietnam is now using its ch labor. Vietnam does not have a complete industrial sy em. It is impossible to establish its own industrial facilities. It is destined to be unable to rise in the role, and it is impossible to re -reproduce the success of the Chinese economy. The first half of this view is okay. Vietnam does not have a complete industrial sy em like China, and it is indeed using its ch labor. However, it is said that Vietnam cannot establish its own industrial facilities and cannot copy the success of China's economy. I am afraid that this conclusion is too early.


First of all, we look at industrial support. China also started from labor -intensive ch assembly factories. It did not have the current comprehensive supporting industrial sy em. This is a process of continuous development. Around the assembly factory, it has gradually spawned the surrounding supporting factories, which is an inevitable result of industrial development. Of course, Vietnam's level of industrialization is very low, and it has innate deficiency in the development of many supporting industries. In addition, Vietnam is close to China. Many component supporting industries can rely on China's Pearl River Delta region, which also objectively hinders the localization of supporting industries.


However, the development of the global industrial chain has to be affected by the international po itical situation in addition to complying with market laws. The comprehensive sup ession of the United States and the West to the Chinese economy has provided opportunities to the development of the Chinese technology industry objectively for the development of the relevant industrial chain of Vietnam. The important content of the decoustal strategy of the United States to China is to prome multinational companies to move the production line from China, and it is precisely the first choice for many multinational companies. In the United States, there are restrictions on the proportion of parts and components from China. The means of taxation and legal restrictions have forced multinational companies to reduce their procurement in China, and objectively prome the development of Vietnamese supporting industries with po itical intervention. This is a very rare opportunity for the development of the Vietnamese industry, so we cannot use the market logic of the past to take the conclusion that Vietnam cannot develop supporting industries.





In other words, the United States and the West are using po itical forces to help Vietnam engage in supporting industries. Of course, due to the many limitations of Vietnam's industrialization level and education and technology level, due to the restrictions on the scale and market size of Vietnam, Vietnam cannot establish an independent industrial chain in all walks of life in all walks of life. Some areas have established an industrial chain that can compete with China, such as in certain areas of the ronics industry, some civilian ronic products, and in some light industries such as clothing, shoes and hats, may establish an industrial chain that comes with China. Some low -end fields may even replace China's international status.


Can Vietnam surpass China? If you say more than China exceed China, it is of course impossible. The economic achievements and international status achieved by China today, let alone Vietnam, can only be compared in the world in the world. The two countries are not in one level, not a type of country. They play completely different roles in international po itical and economic. This is meaningless. However, in terms of development, can it catch or surpass China in terms of development?

We might as well be geographical. Vietnam is located on the south side of the China Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. On transportation, and even geographical culture, it is similar to China. It also belongs to the Confucian cultural circle. , China and Vietnam have very similar characteristics. The biggest difference is that in the scale of the country, Vietnam is probably comparable to a large population province in China.



At present, Vietnam's outward economy is closely integrated with the Chinese economy. There is a huge trade deficit between Vietnam and China. It has gradually become an extension of the China Pearl River Delta Economic Zone and a part of China's industrial chain. Especially with the development of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area, the landing of RCEP, the continuous expansion of China's consumer market, and the conditions of further economic integration in Vietnam and China's economy are becoming more and more mature. With its geographical advantages, Vietnam is a very realistic result to catch up with China's coastal developed provinces in economic development. It is by no means a day and night. Therefore, as long as the Vietnamese economy is facing the road, it will continue to maintain a close cooperative relationship with China, further breaking the economic barriers between the country, and can fully reach the development level or even exceed the average level of China.


In addition, it is particularly worth mentioning that Vietnam's national policies have always adhered to economic construction as the center, do not engage in those grand narratives, and seek economic benefits with all their minds, which is very consistent with the international identity of its small country. In many sensitive international issues, Vietnam has always maintained neutrality and refused to choose the side team, which fully shows the oriental wisdom in diplomacy. If you have been to Vietnam, you will find that the entire Vietnam economy is very dynamic. Vietnam has fully stimulated and mobilized the subjective initiative of the people to act on the economy and develops the economy in terms of policies and laws. Free business and has a good business environment. These all help Vietnam's market economy can maintain stable and healthy development.


The long -term war has made Vietnam's level of industrialization very low, and the foundation is very thin. It can achieve today's development achievements, indicating that the Vietnamese people have great wisdom and hard -working national spirit. At the same time, Vietnam has its own advantages as a small country, that is, to avoid disputes on the game of the big country. Under the current and future complex and changeable international situation, it has an external environment that is more conducive to economic development. Objects benefit from multiple parties.

We discuss whether the Vietnamese economy can surpass China that it does not have much value. As a neighbor state that cannot be moved away, China and Vietnam are partners who are complementary in national scale and industrial division of labor. In terms of economic and trade relations, we can continuously deepen cooperation, and both countries can benefit from the development of each other and obtain the effect of OnePlus one greater than two, rather than entangled in meaningless comparisons.





Michael Ciao

Business Owner Investor (1977–present)Author has 9.2K answers and 10.1M answer views11mo

No, Vietnam is too small.

Vietnam can be and should be successful and prosperous, a prosperous Vietnam is good for the world. They should not be wasting energy trying to compete with China.

Congratulation on the completion of Hanoi Metro line built by China. I am truly sorry to hear the Ho Chi Ming city Metro building by the Japanese at triple cost is delayed and over budget again.






China - World Leader.

Answered by

Jimmy Qu 

Author has 919 answers and 1.8M answer viewsNov 10, 2021

From a Chinese perspective, I think Vietnam will definitely share a lot of manufacturing orders with China, more and more factories will move out of China to Vietnam. It will take some time.

But to become the next factory in the world there are some sincere things Vietnam public need to know about:



1: there is very little chance to have no negative impact to environment. Mass Manufacturing inevitably ruins the environment. If you wish to do the work, you need to be cher. When you do it cher, you cannot control waste gas and water from manufacturing until you increase price and treat it properly. Because there is simply no budget and no shortcut. For China to make $5 jeans, many villagers suffered from diseases from manufacturing and water didn’t get treated properly and pouring into river. That’s the price need to pay. Once China have more restricted environment policies, those factories will shut down. Vietnam will have to prevent dge to Vietnam water and environment by introducing policies and have someone constantly testing water quality.

1: 对环境几乎肯定会有负面影响。大规模生产不可避免会破坏环境。如果你想拿下订单,价格就得便宜一点。但你因此降低成本时,就无法控制生产过程中的废气废水排放,除非你提高价格并妥善处理污染问题。




2: skilled worker.

To be able to put iPhone together, skilled workers are required. Therefore higher education is required even for workers on assembly line. But the challenge is, if workers have higher education, are they still willing to do these repetitive and low pay, but high quality and standards, long hours work for long time? Or it’s better for them to open a shop and repair phones with more return?

2: 熟练技工。


3: infrastructure and logistics

In China, it only takes a few days (3–5 days typically) from manufacturing area to the sea port ready for ship. I heard that some area in Vietnam does not seems to have good network and take a bit longer for ship (source saying 7–15 days or more). Vietnam go nment need to spend a bit more money to build better road/railway network and other infrastructure to bring up efficiency of logistics. Longer waiting for orders are bad for business, sometimes you need to hit the market with your products before competitors and it matters even just 1 or 2 days in advance. Some customers will be willing to pay more if the products they ordered can arrive sooner.

3: 基础设施和物流




4: Ability to expand manufacturing ability for more variety of materials.

To be the factory of the world, either you have ordered a lot of things you cannot manufactured in advance, or you need to make them by yourself. Things like screws, wires, clips, cases, cast iron and models, things like that. More factory, more preparation, and inevitably, more chance to harm the environment. If Vietnam has a strategy to overcome these problems and make manufacturing process smooth like a drive-in McDonald, then the result will be guaranteed to be on time.

Certainly I am not an expert but these factors are worthy to be thinking of if Vietnam is planning to go bigger in manufacturing goods for the world.

4: 扩大生产的能力,生产更多种材料的能力。





Richy T

Author has 345 answers and 40.2K answer views11mo

Does it matter to become economically strong or anything in 10 years and then destroy all in 20 years?




Martin Vratny

Certified GeekAuthor has 2.9K answers and 9.8M answer viewsUpdated 2y


Which country will be the next world's factory when China can't be anymore?

Not a country.

An entire continent.

China has already started moving some of their production into Africa. As they move away from the low-end of production, they need to build up infrastructure in other countries. They pour unbelievable amounts of resources into many African nations through the Belt and Road Initiative.

African nations have quite good relationships with China. Even historically. They strongly supported their independence movements, and never really “owned” Africa. They are building roads, factories, powerplants, dams…






According to CNBC, The total value of Chinese investments and construction in Africa is closing in on $2 trillion since 2005, according to the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) China Global Investment Tracker.


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