India needs to grow 8-10% to reach pre-pandemic levels
NEW DELHI: The Indian economy might be able to reach the pre-pandemic level if it grows in 8-10% range as several high frequency indicators have reached the pre-pandemic levels, experts have said.
The RBI expects the economy to grow by 9.5% in the current fiscal which ends in March. IMF on Wednesday slashed India’s GDP growth estimate for FY22 to 9.5% from its earlier projection of 12.5%. At these rates, Indian economy will be able to claw back to pre-pandemic levels.
Chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subrnian told TOI in an interview that the GDP growth rate in the current fiscal won’t be very much off compared to the estimate of 10.5% growth.
“At this rate, India would be able to recoup the FY21 GDP loss, it is a matter of debate of what would be the permanent loss in output,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI.
印度国家银行集团首席经济顾问Soumya Kanti Ghosh表示：“按照这样的速度，印度能够弥补2021财年的GDP损失，关于产出的永久性损失是一个有争论的问题。”
“The issue is, however, when India can reach the prepandemic levels. Such a level could be either in economic activity or in level of pre-pandemic output. While some of the high frequency indicators are already back to pre-pandemic levels, it might take much longer to reach the FY20 pre pandemic output levels,” said Ghosh.
Subrnian had also said that several high frequency indicators at the macro level are actually exhibiting V-patterns. He also said India is the only country in the world, which has shown two consecutive quarters of positives, while no other country had done that amid the pandemic.
“We expect FY23 growth to be between 6.5% to 7% and thereby accelerate from there towards 7% to 7.5% range,” Subrnian had said.
Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla
We trust you Dr.Krishnamurthy Subramnayan, Ph.D Chicago University, IIT, IIM. that you can deliver, already IMF has predicted 9.5% growth for India in 2022, at a time where world growth rate is expected to be 6%.
Hey fake doctor, how come you are quoting IMF now? When IMF says India's economy will grow slowly, you had condemned it saying all being down by congress!!!
Double Digit Growth is Possible with just 1-Single law!!
India can easily Achieve Double Digit Growth Rate!! badly Need Just 1-Single Law!!
I think it will take time to regain the strength in economy as Pandemic has dest yed the economies of all countries
This govt is doing well on economic front also with strong foundation building as compare to previous one where only % was a matter on papers.
GDP is -7%. Andh bakth where is ur brain
Joke tha kya bhakt?
But will Modi allow India to grow? Just like he dest yed our economy with Demonitization, hafazard implementation of GST and Lockdown, he will come up with a new scheme to bring the economy down!!!. Even now if excess fuel taxes are withdrawn to 2014 level, economy will grow much faster.
Fuel prices are here to stay, switch to Electric Vehicles
Not possible under Modis oppressive era of mass destruction and wrath. Let's pray it comes to end soon
Measure the growth rate of Ambani, Adani. Under Modi it must have reached a1000 pct. Govt is planning to divest more so that these 2 can flourish.
If u have so much hatred for Ambanis, Adanis etc then don't expect job creation. What if they make profit if they also support thousands of families. After all they are also doing charity. They invest and create more jobs and also enjoy some money.
Modi does not care about indians.He cares only about adanis and ambanis. Too much wealth in hands of modi's favourite children will end up badly for nation's unity.
Pandemic totally dest yed the world economy and it will take years to regain it's normal shape
But our growth in December 2019 was 4.9%!!!
And pre pandemic growth was 3.5%.
It is natural that the economy of all countries shrunk during the Pandemic and it will take time to regain it regain it
But no countries has shrunk as much as India's!!!
With skyrocketing fuel prices, we will never achieve double digit growth. We will have double digit inflation soon, if not reached already
When states are imposing restrictions on trade how we can achieve this target.